Trump's sanity?

I recent days it's not just US president's sanity being called into question, it's his insanity looming unquestionable.

Early this year he pulled off a 3-day operation of hunting down Venezuela's dictator and overthrowing his regime (all in the name of seizing the local oil deposits, not to spread democracy).

The war in Iran, sparked at the end of February, to some extent resembles (in military, not moral dimension) Russia's invasion into Ukraine. The USA's attempt to knock down the Iranian regime could drag on for a few years, circumstances permitting. Donald Trump has most likely not realised so far he messed with a hornet’s nest. Iranian people, in spite of being suppressed by a backward regime for 47 years, will not stand down. Trump might (provided he has not fallen back altogether) attempt to leave no stone unturned, burn the entire Iran to the ground, but the Persians will not succumb until they bleed out. At death knell they would fire the nuclear missiles towards their enemies just to go down in history as invincible.

Over the last weeks those of you keeping track of international politics have wondered what would happen the next day and whether Trump would keep his (hollow) promises of destroying Iran's infrastructure or bringing the country's history to a wicked end. The threat of nuclear war has never seemed so close in my lifetime. Now for a while it is gone.

The major upshot of the warfare is the fuel crisis, whose intensity remains uncertain. It is not just the blockade of the Ormuz strait that sent oil price skyrocketing. Drilling and refining capacities have been destroyed and given the global retreat from fossil fuels, it may make no economic sense to rebuild them. More expensive crude oil and natural gas are likely to keep us company for months, thus accelerating embracing green energy, while I won't hazard any guess if oil deficits would lead to fuel rationing and called off passenger flights.

Popularity of the US president has plummeted recently. His decisions do not only taint the reputation of USA as a cradle of modern democracy, but brutally hit wallets of ordinary citizens.

Democrats have been licking wounds after the awful defeat in 2024 elections, but given today's anti-Trump sentiment they are bound to win the mid-term elections in November 2026. They don’t owe it to getting their act together, but benefit from being labelled as the only opposition to Trump. I will watch the story unfold and keep looking forward to impeachment procedure in 2027.

Before it happens, I am keeping fingers crossed for Hungary, hoping today the country will democratically set itself free of the pro-russian authoritarian oligarchy. Under the rule of Victor Orban and his cronies Hungary became the poorest economy in the EU, with democratic institutions being a façade of what they ought to be. Hope the bleak period in Hungary’s history is drawing to a close.