COVID-19 is back

The long-forgotten virus apparently is in overdrive again. We cannot tell how rampant it is, since the public testing system in Poland is currently virtually non-existent and might only hint at possibly even up to 100,000 new (but usually not first) infections daily. The public reporting covers approximately 2,500 tests carried out daily, which, with positivity rate above 40%, have translated into 7-day moving average of new cases exceeding 1,000 on 17 November 2023. The hospitalisation statistics are not published, but the health service does not report a bigger strain than during a typical flu season. Weekly stats of all deaths also do not indicate increased mortality nation-wide.

As I am writing this I am far from concern or panicking. The last restrictions (face covering obligation in health centres, hospitals and pharmacies) were lifted in Poland in July 2023. The virus will stay with us forever, is generally milder and our immune systems have got accustomed to it, hence we are in the phase of learning to live with it and we are nearly getting it right.

Although the disease usually gives symptoms similar to a common cold, being infected by COVID-19 still remains a risk to whose vulnerable - elderly and with underlying health problems. Such examples are my parents who tested positive this week, but undergoing the illness relatively mildly (given their age and health issues). The outgoing Polish government has yet disregarded the issue and has not secured deliveries of Paxlovid and delayed by 2 months distrubution of new vaccines (still no idea how many will arrive), thus putting healths and lives of several million people, including my mother and father, at risk. Despite this I suppose less than 10% of the population will take the next dose, especially once many got through COVID-19 mildly and being vaccinated since months has not given any benefits.

Looking back at the pandemic, I surmise the next one will be perfectly shrugged off. If during the last one, when mortality was up by 100% vs. "normal" times, the extra efforts were not taken to save lives, then once a more severe virus attacks, the price to pay will be high. Interestingly, I see no traces of trauma of isolation and two hundred thousand excess deaths - the pandemic deprived Poland prematurely of nealy 0.5% of its population, being the biggest disaster (in terms of number of fatalities) after World War Two and... nearly everybody gets on with this.

Looking forward, take care of yourselves!

The warmest autumn since records began?

Writing the annual winter timeline has just commenced (with first snow or a first day with average temperature below 0C marking its beginning - this year yesterday), but before I foster the tradition, let’s have a look what the passing autumn was like weather-wise.

Most of the September 2023 was covered here. The last days of the month saw record-breaking (for late September) warmth (in Warsaw temperature reached almost +27C on 29 September 2023), but nowhere in Poland temperature exceeded +30C, hence the record-late appearance of heat (so far 27 September 2012) was left untouched. All in all, September 2023 in Warsaw with mean temperature of July-like +18.5C was warmer by 4.5 Celsius degrees than 1991-2020 average and the warmest since records began, beating the previous-warmest September 1892 by 2 degrees.

October had a summer-like beginning, with temperature topping at +25.8C on 3 October 2023 in Warsaw. The reading was mere 0.1 Celsius degrees short of the outstanding October-time high for the capital of Poland (+25.9C measured on 5 October 1966). On the same day a country-wide October heat record was set. In Legnica in south-western Poland temperature reached +29.3C. Then the weather got a kind of changeable – after a few more nicely warm days, temperature dropped and we had first incidences of ground frost. It got warmer in the second decade of the month, however +22.6C measured on 14 October 2023 does not stack up against +24.4C measured on the same day 4 years earlier. Near the end of the second decade of the month morning frost haunted the capital of my homeland twice, but then temperature drifted higher and the end of the month was quite balmy, with two last days bringing day-time highs close to +18C (not utterly impressive if the records tell me we had +19.0C on 28 October 2022, +19.8C on 27 October 2019 and +21.5C on 30 October 2018). The entire month was +2.3C warmer than long-term average in Warsaw (+8.7C) and ranked among ten warmest October since records began, but still colder than in 2022 or 2019.

The first days of November 2023 seemed relatively warm, yet the deviation from the long-term average was not impressive (mere 3 Celsius degrees). Month-time high of +14.3C reported on 2 November 2023 was lower than the average (1991 – 2020) month-time high for that month (+14.8C) and well below +15.5C on 8 November 2022, +16.0C on 3 November 2020, +16.5C on 4 November 2019 or record-high +19.2C on November 2018. In the second decade of the month weather entered the gloomy pre-winter mode and temperatures got closer to typical long-term readings. This weekend Warsaw is tacking a sudden, yet short-lasting onslaught of winter, which is expected to give way to late autumn tomorrow.

Will autumn 2023 go down as the warmest ever in Warsaw? Given how warm September 2023 and October 2023 were, even with November 2023 exactly at the par with long-term average (+3.8C), it would beat the warmest until now autumn 2006 (+10.8C) by over 0.1 Celsius degree (which is quite much).

Less is more - book review

I sadly cannot recall how I have come across the book by Jason Hickel. Most probably via a mention of it in a newspaper article. As with most books I spot, I ordered it in a local library and waited my turn to borrow it.

The work starts off with analogy to early days of the coronavirus pandemic when the mankind subjugated to strict lockdown regimes in the face of peril. The government-imposed discipline was meant to prove humans can sacrifice to fend off a disaster. The author has forgotten the adherence to stringent social distancing rules was short-lasting and during the next waves of the virus in late 2020 and early 2021 several deaths could have been put down to a lockdown fatigue.

Humans can make big, but short-lasting sacrifices, while tacking the global warming is a long-distance issue which has to prompt the western world to rethink its priorities. Actually, each and every area of life will need to affected: housing, travelling, eating, manufacturing, agriculture, consuming. As the author points out, life of upper classes in rich countries ought to be turned upside down, not to avoid a cataclysm, but just to diminish its scale.

The book espouses a wide criticism of GDP growth as a measure of development and as an overriding goal in capitalism. I share the view GDP is a grossly imperfect indicator of economic well-being, with a tiny correlation with happiness and life quality, but have become fed up with the obsession of the evil capitalism. Yes, free market is imperfect, yet nobody has come up with any sensible alternative so far.

The observation the author illustrates and which I share is that we have to continually work more to afford to have needs met and the more we work, the shorter of time we are. It starts with a basic need which is the roof over one's head. Does not matter whether you buy it or rent it, the cost in relation to your annual wage is several times higher than a few decades ago. You have to then work more you pay your landlord or to make mortgage repayments. If you need to work more, you lack time to cook, clean your house, etc., therefore you decide to farm it out and need to work more to pay for the outsourcing. Mr Hickel puts forward working less and doing more with one's own hands, the idea which takes my fancy as an alternative to a treadmill people around me are in.

Being mindful how adverse consequences of climate changes are, we agree limitations to the western world's current lifestyle are justified. But can they be imposed by governments or should they be rather encouraged or discouraged? Prohibitions are associated with authoritarian or totalitarian regimes, while financial benefits and fines more delicately indicate what is desirable. 

Such reasoning naturally leads to a question about limits of personal liberties. Traditionally, they have been constrained by other people's freedom and well-being. The impending climate catastrophe prompts us to revise it and broaden to the planet's well-being.

Humans as a mass by nature are defiant rather than obedient. If something if forbidden, defiant humans are more tempted to do this, therefore I suppose a carrot would work better than a stick. The problem is we have probably run out of time to play with carrots and sticks, when the earth is getting increasingly hotter.

Michael warned me the book's purport was leftist and indeed, a radical angle was clearly felt. I believe a more moderate language could be more effective in persuading middle-of-the-road readers to revise their lifestyle. Mr Hickel with his leftist tilt sadly lacks such power and by many will be labelled as left-wing lunatic.

The worst human trait, redefined

More than a decade ago, I claimed unreliability is a human trait I detest the most. Although I have not changed my mind about that one, today what winds me up much more is procrastination, being often one step ahead of the unreliability.

The word, translated nearly literally into Polish as prokrastynacja (in my books zwlekactwo), has made it big with psychologists and those who explore whys and wherefores of the human nature. Some define it as a problem, others as indispensable part of being good enough and letting up when necessary. I hold the view it is a shortcoming which makes my hackles rise and which humans ought to try to overcome.

When I am to set about doing something, no matter if ordered by somebody or off my own bat, I either move on without further ado or plan the onset of the activity for a defined moment in the future when circumstances are likely to permit. I dislike having at the back of my head some overdue stuff waits to be sorted out. Besides, not putting back doing things is a part of fairness towards fellow people and myself.

But most people do not handle it my way. I have identified four reasons why humans tend do delay what they are meant to do.
Firstly, I put it down to overt laziness (does not need extra commenting I believe).
Secondly, for some individuals "taking their time" is a part of their mindset and their lack of hurry extends into procrastination. Alternatively some humans are excited by doing things at eleventh hour and feel most motivated when a deadline pushes them.
Thirdly, it is a matter of being overwhelmed with other duties or having different priorities. This is a sign of our times, featured with constant overload.
Fourtly, and I believe this reason is underappreciated, the delay driver is a fear of taking a wrong decision or making a wrong step - by proscrastinating, people allow themselves to spend more time on analysis (sometimes leading up to a paralysis).

I hazard a guess losers tend to procrastinate. Opportunities in life have to be chased. Once they come up, decisiveness and quick reaction let humans grab them and get ahead.