Writing the annual winter timeline has just commenced (with first snow or a first day with average temperature below 0C marking its beginning - this year yesterday), but before I foster the tradition, let’s have a look what the passing autumn was like weather-wise.
Most of the September 2023 was covered here. The last days of the month saw record-breaking (for late September) warmth (in Warsaw temperature reached almost +27C on 29 September 2023), but nowhere in Poland temperature exceeded +30C, hence the record-late appearance of heat (so far 27 September 2012) was left untouched. All in all, September 2023 in Warsaw with mean temperature of July-like +18.5C was warmer by 4.5 Celsius degrees than 1991-2020 average and the warmest since records began, beating the previous-warmest September 1892 by 2 degrees.
October had a summer-like beginning, with temperature topping at +25.8C on 3 October 2023 in Warsaw. The reading was mere 0.1 Celsius degrees short of the outstanding October-time high for the capital of Poland (+25.9C measured on 5 October 1966). On the same day a country-wide October heat record was set. In Legnica in south-western Poland temperature reached +29.3C. Then the weather got a kind of changeable – after a few more nicely warm days, temperature dropped and we had first incidences of ground frost. It got warmer in the second decade of the month, however +22.6C measured on 14 October 2023 does not stack up against +24.4C measured on the same day 4 years earlier. Near the end of the second decade of the month morning frost haunted the capital of my homeland twice, but then temperature drifted higher and the end of the month was quite balmy, with two last days bringing day-time highs close to +18C (not utterly impressive if the records tell me we had +19.0C on 28 October 2022, +19.8C on 27 October 2019 and +21.5C on 30 October 2018). The entire month was +2.3C warmer than long-term average in Warsaw (+8.7C) and ranked among ten warmest October since records began, but still colder than in 2022 or 2019.
The first days of November 2023 seemed relatively warm, yet the deviation from the long-term average was not impressive (mere 3 Celsius degrees). Month-time high of +14.3C reported on 2 November 2023 was lower than the average (1991 – 2020) month-time high for that month (+14.8C) and well below +15.5C on 8 November 2022, +16.0C on 3 November 2020, +16.5C on 4 November 2019 or record-high +19.2C on November 2018. In the second decade of the month weather entered the gloomy pre-winter mode and temperatures got closer to typical long-term readings. This weekend Warsaw is tacking a sudden, yet short-lasting onslaught of winter, which is expected to give way to late autumn tomorrow.
Will autumn 2023 go down as the warmest ever in Warsaw? Given how warm September 2023 and October 2023 were, even with November 2023 exactly at the par with long-term average (+3.8C), it would beat the warmest until now autumn 2006 (+10.8C) by over 0.1 Celsius degree (which is quite much).
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