The run-off

The fortnight behind us was the period when the two candidates were attempting to attract electorate of their rival who had not made it to the second round and to convince those who dither or usually do not participate in the elections.

Mr Duda and Mr Trzaskowski were going neck in neck in opinion polls, with the former being indicated as odds-on favourite more likely. Despite the fierce rivalry, we went without truly dirty tricks, although henchmen of the incumbent president tried to build a story of the other candidate being an enemy of decent Poles.

This part of campaign should have been clinched by the number of scale of mistakes made by candidates. In fact, stalwart voters of both candidates could not have been dissuaded from voting for them, no matter what happened (the case of pardoning an ex-paedophile may serve as the best example).

The key to the victory was the mobilisation and one would not dare to estimate which candidate would benefit from higher turnout.

The exit-poll results point at slightly higher percentage of votes cast for the current president. The official results will probably be known on Tuesday morning. Hope dies the last, but has not died yet. Keep the faith.

The day the pen was meant to crack

Woke up at half past six, got up, ate a breakfast, did the morning toiletry, donned a face mask and strolled to the polling station number 606 in Ursynów. I turned up there at 7:40 and queued orderly in a long line of voters. I managed to cast a vote 45 minutes later. Everybody appeared to vote early in order to avoid long queues in the afternoon (heat factor matters as well, except for the pandemic). Social and traditional media have reported long queues in several places in Warsaw in the morning, yet this was not necessarily the increased mobilisation, rather bringing forward the moment of voting to morning hours.

The turnout of 24% at noon was record-high for first five hours of voting, yet one must make allowances for heat and pandemic. Fewer people went to the polls in the afternoon, but with the evening onrush, the final percentage of those who have decided to vote, climbed to record-high 63%.

Over the day I hoped the gap between the winner and the runner-up could reach less than five percentage points, far off the actual mark. My hopes were sadly dashed. My guests (today I invited over some people for the first time during the pandemic) and I were more than disappointed andwe took comfort in some wine (therefore the note is posted with delay, lack of hangover after nearly 4 months of abstaining from drinking is a good signal).

Despite the gap between president Duda and mayor Trzaskowski, both candidates will go neck in neck towards the run-off. Mr Trzaskowski will likely benefit from the support of Mr Hołownia’s voters and Mr Biedroń’s voters, partly from Mr Kosiniak-Kamysz’s voters, while Mr Bosak’s electorate might not be willing to back Mr Duda. Strategically, if other political parties are to thrive in democratic system, in their best interest would to prohibit the monopoly of power in the hands of one party.

Polish presidential election in 2020 – two weeks ahead.

Truth be told, I have mixed feelings about the oncoming presidential election. The failed attempt to organise the mail-in voting on 10 May has fortunately turned out to be a massive cock-up, as the farcical ballot could not meet any criteria of democratic voting process. The first (and conceivably not the last) round of the election to be held in two weeks at least is staged by a third-party institution (Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza).

One can hope, but I doubt can ensure all four traits of presidential election enumerated in article 127, paragraph 1 of the constitution will be satisfied.

Despite unequal access to public media (which are a sludge, as Michael once rightly named) and limited time to garner 100,000 signatures by Rafał Trzaskowski (hats off to his team and mobilized potential voters), I still believe the election can be named equal.

I fear common participation in the election, especially abroad and to people who will be put on quarantine just before the vote might constitute a problem.

They law adopted by the parliament in early June broadly ensures everyone can vote directly.

Also the formula of voting broadly ensures the very process of casting a ballot will be done in secrecy.

Both the ruling party, afraid of social anger spurred by inept handling the pandemic, numerous scandals and “PiSites are more equal than others” and the opposition which has felt wind in their sales and intent on making use of it before it wanes, have been determined to hold the vote possibly quickly. Despite legal opinions, the election has been called in absence of any circumstances in which it can be done according to the constitution. The amendment bringing back the vote under the legal order, i.e. deferring the vote until the end of the incumbent president’s term has ultimately been rejected by the Senate. This all raises concerns whoever loses the election might file to the supreme court for deeming it unconstitutional.

I find the candidate swapping trick distasteful. Rafał Trzaskowski is a far superior candidate to Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska, has skills she lacks to fight PiS and is more charismatic. No wonder PiSites fear him. Nevertheless the way Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska was ousted from the race does not take my fancy. End justifies the means.

I do not feel like writing up short notes on each of candidates standing any chance to score at least 5% of votes as I did 5 and 10 years ago. I declare to vote for my neighbour (living half a mile from my home) and for anyone else than Andrzej Duda in the run-off, be it Rafał Trzaskowski, Szymon Hołownia, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, Robert Biedroń or even Krzysztof Bosak.

The ongoing epidemic also instils fear in me. People behave as if the peril was over. Lack of discipline is visible especially when people rally to meet candidates. I fear the campaign and the vote might contribute to a spread of the disease. For such reason I will visit the polling station around 7:00 a.m., armed in gloves and my own pen. The stake is too high to give up on fulfilling my civic duty, especially since I have not missed a single election since acquiring the right to vote in December 2005.