Daleko od Wawelu - book review

Spent the last two days of the shorter working week (i.e. Wednesday and Thursday) on a sick leave. I had been fighting the illness since late October, but surrounded all the time either by sneezing and coughing parents at home or by sneezing and coughing colleagues at work, I finally gave up and came down with some sort of cold. Unfortunately for my employer, I was not the only one to be absent at work at this time, but if they wanted an open plan, they should have taken into account that they would create excellent conditions for germs to fly around. And so they did…

Actually feeling a bit off-colour and staying in bed for three days has even done me good. The first day, when I had a fever did not actually bring the coveted chill-out, but then I finally found time to read books and watch films I had planned to read or watch since months.

One of them was the book written by Michał Majewski and Paweł Reszka - Daleko od Wawelu (“Far from Wawel”, where Poland’s late president Lech Kaczyński was buried). I first heard of the book in October 2010, just upon its publishing, as it was mentioned in “Polityka” as a good account of Lech Kaczyński’s term in office. As the book was reviewed mostly in liberal media, I thought it would focus on presenting the demerits of late president, yet, to my surprise, the picture of the Lech Kaczyński is anything, but one-sided.

As the authors declare, the book, compiled over many months was set to be given some finishing touches in April 2010. Before final editing, authors were appointed to talk it over with Mr Kaczyński himself, yet the final meeting was postponed until mid-April 2010 in the run-up to visit in Smolensk. Needless to say, it has never been held. Shock brought about by the Smolensk disaster put the publishing plans on hold, but a few months later authors decided to make a few technical amendments (e.g. putting past tense instead of present, for “technical” reasons) and print in the book in its pre-Smolensk shape and under a different title.

Mr Majewski and Reszka have aptly drawn a picture of Lech Kaczynski as an ordinary man, as many of us having feet of clay. They carried out several interviews with people who knew the late president well and put their accounts together. The profile of the late head of state is delineated in an unbiased way, giving credit when it was due, and pointing at weaknesses, when necessary. The picture of Lech Kaczynski which emerges from the book shows a man full of contradictions, driven most by emotions. As someone claimed, you could tell about Mr Kaczynski that he was a kind-hearted, affable interlocutor, great speaker who could deliver a speech ad hoc, meet people in a provincial town and talk to them spontaneously, or you could call him hot-tempered, dogged, disorganised, suspicious or indecisive and in both cases you would not depart from the truth. Lech Kaczynski changed moods very quickly, shouted at people and fired them, just to forget about such brawls after two days…

The biggest problem of Mr Kaczynski was, from what I inferred from the book, the fact he was extremely pliable. It is commonly known that he was steered by his brother, who had laid out their plans in politics, and wife, who toned him down, yet this was not the real case. The late president was surrounded by droves of people working in his office who competed with one another at work and used their positions to pursue their own goals. Mr Kaczynski apparently could not tell a sincere man from a mercenary bastard and often trusted too much those who did not deserve it.

Mr Kaczynski seems to appear as a victim of bad people. Not just of his brother, who made him a meaningful figure in politics or the lousy entourage from his office. As everyone realises, late president fell victim of black PR campaigns run by PO politicians masterfully since their victory in 2007 parliamentary election. The purport of PO’s depiction of the president was to present him as a stumbling block that prevents the country from moving forward and an excuse for government’s idleness. The book also sheds some light on the dark side of PO and its leader, Donald Tusk, who have rarely held back from punching below the belt. Recently, the author published a new book, titled Daleko od miłości (“Far from love”), being a similar profile of prime minister Donald Tusk. As soon as I get hold of it and read it from cover to cover, you can expect a review here.

Mr Lech Kaczynski was derided not only in Poland. Foreign diplomats took the trouble to work him out and find his soft spots. In a psychological profile they noticed he felt badly in official situations and was ill at ease during less official meeting owing to his lack of command of foreign languages. They did not hesitate to make use of that knowledge to pound at him. No wonder his ability to pursue foreign policy in a way many Poles wanted (similar to his predecessor, Mr Kwaśniewski) was largely limited.

I was deeply appalled by the overwhelming disorganisation of Mr Kaczynski’s office (kancelaria) workings. The late president could not enforce discipline, the office was run by competing cliques, decisions, due to president’s inherent indecisiveness were taken at hour eleventh, meetings were arranged much too late. Many decisions were taken on the spur of the moment and inspired by bouts of emotions. The book provides a coverage of incident of the ‘Georgian flight’, when the pilot refused to touch down in Tbilisi, slightly different than presented in Gazeta Wyborcza and gives good insight into the president foray into provincial Georgia in November 2008 when someone could have tried to shoot the president. This case, when plans were rapidly changed only due to president Saakashvili’s whim and without providing proper security to the head of state sheds light not only on bad organisation of president’s administration but also is a big question mark for alleged big friendship between the two presidents.

After reading the book, Lech Kaczynski is in my mind more like a tragic character than a mediocre president. I still claim he did not deserve to be buried in Wawel, but the time will not be turned back. The late president was actually a good man, but had no makings for a president. He did not feel comfortable holding the office and it probably would have been better if he had stayed on as professor, instead of stepping back into politics.

Shame on you if you fool me once...

…but shame on me if you fool me twice. Sometimes sayings that refer to ordinary life apply to politics and economy as well.

Have you ever wondered how many times have Greeks double-crossed their breadwinners from the EU? Greece joined the European Economic Community in 1981. I have to plead I know little about the backstage of entrance to European Communities at that time, but from what I remember at that time a country which applied for a membership did not have to meet any quantitative criteria. From that point being a member of EEC has helped Greece make a big stride, yet not in terms of development, but in terms of standard of living.

Things have changed after the Maastricht Treaty was signed and took effect. It laid foundation for single currency area and set requirements a country which wanted to join it had to meet. Two of them referred to soundness of public finances – each applicant had to keep general government deficit below 3% of GDP and the whole public debt could not account for more than 60% of GDP. These are figures, and whenever statistics are in use, room for tampering can be found. Here’s the rub – when calculating the public debt a country was allowed to legally subtract some of its liabilities. The main method of concealing some of debts was using complex financial instruments, mainly cross-currency swaps that allowed the Greek government to issue bonds in other currencies at “arranged rates” and with deferred maturity. The operation that helped Greeks dupe the EU was brought off in liaison with Goldman Sachs (the bank that rules the world, there is more than just a grain of truth in this assertion). Thus in official statistics the debt was curbed, in fact it morphed into time bomb that would blow up Greece’s public finances in a few years.

For many years Greek sovereign bonds were treated as safe investment. When banking crisis in 2008 reached its zenith, many banks in Europe, including Dexia lost millions on toxic US mortgage-market-related assets, but then received capital injections. This money was parked in safe havens. One of them were Greek bonds. Collapse of Greece’s public finances came to the light in September 2009. From then on, Greece has faced insolvency many times. For the first time it received a bailout package in May 2010. Over 100 billion Euros let the country avoid bankruptcy then, but this was just the first injection of never-ending drip of money. To borrow money on preferential terms from the EU and the IMF, Greece had to implement painful austerity measures. Greeks, pampered by overgrown welfare system, went to the streets to protest against dreadful retrenchment programme. The country repeatedly came to a standstill, strikes exacerbated economic contraction and debt-to-GDP ratio soared.

In most European countries the crisis was sparked by excessive expansion of deregulated banking industry, mainly consisting in reckless mortgage lending. In Greece banking sector stayed relatively healthy. The overgrown welfare state and lack of competitiveness of Greek economy were the nails used to close the coffin of Greece. Many privileges, despite social unrest, can be scrapped, but structural changes are will not be easily brought in, given the mentality of Greek society. Big grey economy and widespread claimant stance (postawa roszczeniowa) will be a stumble block. Greece must not only cut ridiculous expenses, but also take steps to boost its tax revenue base. Tax evasion must finally be severely punished, wages must finally be linked to efficiency. It sounds simply, but Greece has to get to grips with bigger challenges. In needs to carry out structural reforms to make its products and services sellable on global markets. It would be easier if they could be sold at lower prices, but as long as Greece is a member of the Eurozone, devaluation of currency does not come into play.

Solidarity is a glue that stick together the European Union. Poland is also a big beneficiary of this. As a poorer country we receive lots of money to modernise the country. A big leap being made in infrastructure development can be put down the inflow of EU funds, but life is not only about taking, but also about giving. One country should not sponge on other, as Greece has done. And if other countries bail one country out, it should not come up with ideas such as the one to call a referendum whether to accept another tranche of bailout package, subject to another dose of painful reforms.

Someone finally should bite the bullet and pull the plug on Greece. I would simply let it go bust, let banks write down or write off value of Greek bonds (most creditors of Greece are capable to absorb such losses, although it would be a blow to their shareholders). I would even let it start from scratch. But even in such scenario, I seriously doubt if Greeks would learn from their mistakes. They would rather be taught that if creditors let them get away with not meeting their obligations, that they can carry on living off other countries’ backs.

The Euro, as a currency, as well as the Eurozone, are political, not economic undertakings and for that reason no one will have the courage to kick out Greece from the eurozone. Admitting one’s defeat is a bitter pill to swallow, but in my view, this painful solution would in long-term turn out to be best, and less costly than pumping next billions into a bankrupt country.

All Saints' Day

Year by year, I dare to claim the first day of November is called ‘All Saints’ Day’ because it takes patience of a Saint to survive it. Having spent almost 24 years in this world I still can’t grasp the concept of rounding up all people on cemeteries around one day. Maybe the incongruity is no bigger than distributing visits over the whole year, but these visits result in throng, throng and once again throng. Jammed roads near cemeteries, crowds of people walking from one grave to another, hundreds of candle- and flower-sellers putting up their stalls outside cemeteries, drivers struggling to park their vehicles – these are main types of entertainment on that lovely day.

Visits to cemeteries make an opportunity to ponder upon the place of death in contemporary culture. Remembrance is being pushed aside – just take a look – everyone suddenly remembers about the departed around 1 November and as soon as they come back from cemeteries, they forget, until the next year. Just a week ago when my mother and I drove to Piaseczno to tidy up my grandparents’ grave, they were hardly any cars outside cemetery gate. Today cars were parked everywhere, within the distance of one kilometre from the cemetery. Oddly enough, traffic away from cemeteries is quite sparse, but beware…

Long weekend around All Saints’ Day is a time when too many people depart this world. From Saturday until today’s afternoon death toll has hit 47, 476 people were injured in traffic accidents. This weekend will go down as one of the most tragic of all. Everyone says weather is to blame. In most parts of Poland the day is warm, visibility is reasonably good, it doesn’t rain nor snow, so drivers tend to put their foot down. The higher the speed, the more tragic accidents are. When the weather gets bad, drivers slow down, there are more prangs, but far fewer people die or are injured. Today I saw one smash-up, typical rear-ending, quite hard to understand for me, but from what I’ve observed over the past weekend, drivers’ behaviour this year is even up to the mark, the biggest dangers are posed by reckless pedestrians. Such thoughtlessness, recklessness and inattention have I never seen. Walking in the middle of a road, trespassing onto the road just in front of an oncoming car, swerving, standing on a road and staring at God knows what, staggering. No wonder pedestrians account for about 50% of this weekend’s fatalities. If my observations are right, in many cases they also caused accidents. Another plague are of course cyclists, usually elderly people riding their bikes loaded with kilograms of stuff they carry to a cemetery. The wobble, don’t see what’s going on behind them. So beware of them as well.

Not breaking the old tradition, my family visit the graves earlier. We went to Bródno in mid-October, a week later to Piaseczno, as our visit coincided with my grandfather’s death anniversary and on Sunday we went to Prażmów and again to Piaseczno. As yesterday my father was busy and I was at work, last visits were put back to today. In the morning we visited cemetery in Konstancin where my father’s family rest and then went again to Piaseczno. Fortunately, the tour was ticked off by midday and in the afternoon I could enjoy a walk on a lovely autumnal afternoon (temperature of +13C, four degrees cooler than a year ago, yet still balmy).

To the right – a symbolic grave of three boys, aged 20 – 21, killed in an accident on 15 September 2011. The inebriated driver of BMW 735 drove at almost 200 kmph, so as it lost control over the car and it went into a skid, the Burak Ma Wózek shattered into pieces. One of the passengers, who hadn’t fastened safety belts was shot out of the car and miraculously survived. Three other ones died at the scene. The accident was the local “issue of the day”, but later the coverage of it ceased. As my mother’s friend learnt, the driver was a son of a local policeman so no wonder the case was covered up. Maybe I am insensitive, but I don’t understand why so many people feel sorry for the drunk idiots who killed themselves. I feel sorry for their families and feel a big relief that they didn’t kill anyone else. And I can’t see the point in making an altar out of rear lamp and parts of bumper of the written-off car. So many people cry after three sods, while many valuable people die in loneliness…

Then I strolled west to Stara Iwiczna, to visit a small, cosy cemetery, with beginnings traced back to first half of nineteenth century. I noticed the local society has put up a symbolic grave for priest Andrzej Kwaśnik who used to be a rector of the parish in Stara Iwiczna for 12 years. He died tragically in near Smolensk on 10 April 2010.

Heading back home, I snap another nightmare outside cemetery gate. This is just a small cemetery and cars are parked everywhere. The worst thing is that everyone MUST take their cars, normally kept in a barn unused and go to a cemetery by car, even if they live within a walking distance from it. My neighbours came there by their clapped-out car and thus covered almost one kilometre in a car, rather than as they should – on foot.

Around that day, I came to think about Karol, whom I had lent 1,000 PLN in May 2010. Needless to say I still haven’t recovered the money. I decided to call his mother to find out how he was doing. I called her on her mobile, from mine, without withholding the number. There was no reply. Yesterday I dialled their landline number and in case they had caller ID detection on, withheld my number. The one who picked up the phone was Karol. Now I know he stays at home and is alive. It finally sank in to me that I’ve long got over the loss of money, but I can’t get over being duped…

And finally yesterday, while being on a loose end at work, I browsed profiles of famous people who passed away over the last year. And… the read was a bit shocking. Out of 24 people, two were hated by millions and killed (Osama Ibn Laden, Muammar Gaddafi), two committed suicides (Andrzej Lepper, Edward Żentara) and one was a drug- and alcohol-addict (Amy Winehouse). The list is lightly dejecting, but uplifting is the news that over 200 lives were saved today…

Let go - the best way to check out...

If you love somebody, let them go. If they come back, they'll always be yours; if they don't, they've never been.

Years go by and some adages will never go outdated. I heard that quote for the first time some nine years when I fell in love seriously for the first time, but from time to time it resounda in my head.

Letting go is actually about giving up on somebody and seems to be an act of surrender, but giving the loved one freedom to pursue their happiness is, in each case of unreciprocated love, the best possible choice.

Life doesn't always turn out the way we expect, but life musn't rest on compelling and killing other people with kindness. Floating in a realm of lies and delusions is in the long run even more crippling than loneliness. Attempts to pursue one's own happiness heedless of other people's emotions and feeling can lead only nowhere.

We should mind other people's emotions but shouldn't be constrained by them. However, we have right to pursue our own happiness, sometimes we can't do it without hurting other people, but no matter how absurdly it sounds, we should hurt them with care, gently.

Heartaches are never pleasant, but in a way they develop our emotions. Every wound one day heals. But some wounds cease to ache but leave scars that bring back painful memories.

Love's not only about being together with the loved one. True love consists in craving for someone else's happiness.

No, no, nothing bad's happened. Written for posterity, in case I forget it...

A new member to Polish - English blogosphere

Slightly taken aback by the news that my high school class-mate from high school (VI LO im. Reytana) has just set up a bilingual blog on fashion. I can't sincerely declare I share Kasia's, interest in fashion trends, but whenever a young person takes up blogging, it's commendable. When the writer is not male and when she, as a Pole, decides to write in both Polish and English, the venture deserves even more glowing praise. Oddly enough, Kasia is the only person I know from the "real world" (i.e. except those I've got to know via Internet) to run a blog. Either blogging is not a popular hobby, or some people, like me, hide it from the rest of the world (although I made a progress, I showed the blog to my parents).

On the day she starts her "Fashion Corner" I wish Kasia thousands of bright ideas to commit to the blog and I hope she won't run out of energy and inspiration to keep on writing.

Me, the sluggish blogger

Again I buggered up. Faced with scarcity of time over the week and manifold activities piling up for the weekend, I set myself a routine of writing once a week. This time I almost didn't manage. I planned to write about "the outraged", Polish movement which rose up as a response to Occupy Wall Street and similar itiviatives across the world. Maybe the next weekend will be more merciful. Over the week, unlike "the outraged" I burnt the midnight oil at work and from Monday to Wednesday could not even find time and energy to turn the computer on. Over the weekend on top of being burdened with family duties and household chores I had the choice either to indulge in physical (swimming pool, walk) or social activity or to stare at computer screen, and eventually opted for the former. Obviously if I had chosen to stay in and conjure up a mind-blowing post about capitalist societies rousing up, but striking a balance between economics, banking and down-to-earth issues seems more important than satisfying my readers. So... Apologies.

Maybe over the weekend I'll finally follow out my plan.

The guilt

Student SGH? Me? I chose that nickname as I was setting up this blog in February 2009, because being a student was one of main social roles I would perform then and the easiest to put clearly into words. As someone rightly noticed, some time ago I graduated and no longer can call myself a student. Unlike many of my peers I have not struggled to find a job after I finished the studies, I do not work on "junk contract" (umowa śmieciowa), I have a permanent job. Someone said I am a banker. I think this sound misleading. I do not deal in high amounts of money, I just analyse credit risk, my job is to assure a company should be able to pay back the money it wants to borrow. I have worked too short to get it wrong at least once. I earn relatively well, though I was recently told my salary accounts for only 60% of average salary on my position in the whole industry. Unlike most of my compatriots, I have savings, given my age they are quite ample. I try to make even more money by speculating on stock exchange; sometimes I win, sometimes I lose. Plus the only asset I have is a car - a gift from my parents on occasion of graduating from SGH. And last Sunday I voted for Platforma Obywatelska because I was convinced, as almost 40% of voters, that things were quite alright.

Should I have remorse?

I something amiss in the short confession above? Let's dissect it.

Unlike many of my peers I have not struggled to find a job after I finished the studies - The whole debate can boil down to one question - is it true that a man's key to success lies in his own hands. Who are those young people who cannot get a job? Can anyone put together a profile of an unemployed graduate? What did they study? When choosing what to study, did they assess job prospects for graduates? During their studies did they engage in any student organizations? Did they do internships during summer holidays? What did they do to raise their qualifications? What earnings do they expect when entering the labour market?

It was a twist of fate that I work where I work. I partly owe it to luck. On Easter Monday last year I put in my application to Grasz o Staż contest. I cracked a three-page long case study and sent it, not holding out much hopes to be qualified to the next stage. Then out of the blue came a horribly tough interview at a bank. I was given ten minutes to prepare financial analysis of a company on a verge of bankruptcy. There was no space for luck, I had to prove my knowledge. I got in, what I later achieved was thanks to sheer hard work. And I never complained about my salary, employer's requirements, etc.

I do not work under a "junk contract" (umowa śmieciowa) - I cannot see the point in the fuss about junk contracts. For young people who still study they are excellent - no need to pay social security contributions, effective tax rate for such contracts for students is below 15%. Plus they offer more flexibility to both parties to such contracts...

I have a permanent job - now a different story. Despite having some job security (not only in contractual terms, but also at work, where I feel no one is going to lay me off), I am not creditworthy for banks. I do not plan to take out a mortgage, but if I wanted I would not get more than 140,000 PLN. This is... great news. The fewer people deserve, in banks' view, to be granted a loan, the more property prices fall and the sooner I can buy something for cash.

Someone said I am a banker. I think this sound misleading. I do not deal in high amounts of money, I just analyse credit risk, my job is to assure a company should be able to pay back the money it wants to borrow - maybe the case is that English does not distinguish between bankier and bankowiec (not to mention examples of rencista and rentier). I am a bankowiec - someone who works at a bank, but not someone who earns zillions and not, as many people tend to think, foist loans upon helpless clients. My job is to foster the bank's interests. In very simple words, my role is to check and analyse, which company will have capacity to repay a loan, which not, and to justify why. I do not rip anyone off and if a company does not get financing, it is not because I have it in for it. My employer pays me for taking care of quality of its portfolio, so I simply do my bit as good as I can.

I have worked too short to get it wrong at least once. But the economic slowdown is nearing and we are taking steps to prepare for it. One day I'll make a mistake, and I think this will be a valuable experience. One best learns from one's own mistakes...

I earn relatively well, though I was recently told my salary accounts for only 60% of average salary on my position in the whole industry. Many of my peers have inflated expectations regarding their starting salary. This one of main reasons why young people have problems on the labour market. My take on this is that they should, as I did, accept low salary at the beginning, and with time, through aforementioned sheer hard work, prove they deserve more. During the internship I had in summer last year I got paid peanuts, in February I started a three-month probation period over which I was paid more, than I got another pay raise and now I have no reasons to complain. I believe with time, provided the crisis does not spark off for good, my salary should go up again.

Unlike most of my compatriots, I have savings, given my age they are quite ample. - I do not understand why in this country people who are thrifty are at best scowled at. Being good at managing one's own finances is a virtue. Being able to amass some wealth, instead of squandering money does reflect well upon a man. Why those who save are punished, while those who borrow and live beyond their means are taken care of, helped out, etc.?

I try to make even more money by speculating on stock exchange; sometimes I win, sometimes I lose. - and those who buy and sell risk are now assaulted as well. Speculators are to blame for potential sovereign defaults? I know market participants are often insane, their decisions are driven by emotions, herd instinct, irrational, but after all many speculations are based on fundamentals (betting if Greece, Italy or Spain go bust is not unfounded) and on every speculation someone loses. Every speculator is sooner or later beaten in their own game. The only rule in that game that has to be obeyed is that no one should be bailed out. Once you take a risk, you should lose all hopes that anyone will give you helpind hand if things go wrong.

Plus the only assets I have is a car - a gift from my parents on occasion of graduating from SGH.. Yes, I do have remorse, when I pass by people tinned like sardines in a bus. Now I feel like shutting up.

And last Sunday I voted for Platforma Obywatelska because I was convinced, as almost 40% of voters, that things were quite alright. - and I voted for 'evildoers', 'traitors', I opted for the 'further downfall of Poland'. But for over a year I many times glanced at political decisions taken in Hungary and I am grateful to Jarosław Kaczyński for reminding me why I did not vote for his party...

Waiting for some waspich comments to crop up. Feel free to bash me!

Maybe next week about Wall Street occupiers...

Peace, rather than PiS

We got the preliminary results, based on exit polls. Figures are still very approximate and may vary, but they clearly indicate PO is the party in the history of Poland to win the parliamentary election for the second time in a row. The same figures show is also will be able to keep on wielding power in coalition with PSL.

The victory of PO means no big change is in the offing, Poland is in for four years of predictable and pragmatic, yet sometimes mediocre and feckless rule.

Am I elated? I don't think there's a reason. Poles, including me, voted for PO, because there is no alternative, no better option. We have to make do with what we have. I wish they make wise decisions in the coming economic crisis. May they overhaul Polish public finances, as they have failed to do hitherto, may they utilise prudently EU funds, may they push this country forward.

I think Mr Kaczynski's speaking, not in the same manner as he did in 2007. I wonder how long before the first squabble breaks out...

Update, Monday 10 October
Winning PO scored over 39% of votes, runner-up - PiS, gained slightly less than 30%. The biggest winner is Palikot's movement that scored roughly every tenth vote. The election has brought about a considerable reshuffle in Polish politics...

In the meantime no one turned out to be well-brought-up enough to congratulate the winners. Soon after exit polles came to the light Jarosław Kaczyński threatened one day he would take the path of Hungary where Victor Orban's party won majority of seats in the parliament last year. I hope Poland will be faring well amid the economic slowdown and sovereign debt crisis. Politicians from the opposition already make a wish that the crisis wipes out Donald Tusk's government. Envy and hubris again take over. Those who want the crisis to overturn the prime minister want it to take its toll on Poles as well.

As long as they run Poland, may they do it prudently and mind the outcome.

Home straight

If there is anything I can appeal for three days before the election, it is the presence. Not only the presence of mind when casting a ballot, but presence in the polling stations. When Sunday comes, please, go to the polls, exercise your right to choose your representatives, to choose the shape of Poland in years to come. I do not conceal my political preferences, I will vote for the "servile party of evildoers who have driven Poland to ultimate downfall", but I am not going to exhort to vote for any party. I am calling for high turnout. And please do not scratch beneath the surface. I am not going to prove the rule that the more people go to the polls, the lower the percentage of votes scored by wacky candidates is. Higher turnout gives a stronger mandate to rule the country. Whoever wins, should be authorised by the nation to wield power.

Last days of the lacklustre campaign to my surprise abounded in twists of action. On Monday Tomasz Lis in his evening TV show attempted to drag down Jarosław Kaczyński, but inadvertently dragged himself down by assaulting the leader of PiS in way far cry from objectivity that befits a journalist. Then came the inept pronouncemnt of Mr Kaczynski concerning means by which chancellor Angela Merker rose to power.

In the last days of September it was quite clear to me that PiS would win the election; today this scenario is setting aside. There was a time when PiS had caught up with PO, but then it made one overriding mistake - it switched uncontrollably from deceptive image of peaceful party to its old good style marked by invoking resentments and hostility. I have also observed that so called "young, edcuated, from big cities" who had seemed so indifferent of politics somehow realised what was amiss and roused up. They simply realised PiS would win. Lots of people in Warsaw are so strongly convinced PiS will win this election. Discussions about politics, officially forbidden in my corporation are run every day in the office... Conclusion? If mishaps strike out of the blue... Will people take precautions?

And if PiS wins? Their victory itself will not be a disaster. It does not really matter who wins, what matters is how they rule. If PiS wins, they must get a chance to form a government and Mr Komorowski is duty bound to entrust this mission to Mr Kaczynski. I promise not to see red if Mr Kaczynski's party wins. I will wait for their first moves. And at the end of the day level of adrenaline in my body fell after cutting down on speculating on the stock market, so a reshuffle in politics might send it back up. And last but not least, I am sticking to my promise of setting up a political blog in Polish if PiS wins. That would be a challenge, but could it give pleasure?

Beautiful late summer

A shame I haven’t illustrated this post with some photos. An egregious error…

The summer of 2011 did not pamper Poland with beautiful weather. It wasn’t actually cold, as average temperature of July was around long-term average and August was slightly warmer than average, but both months gave a rough ride to holidaymakers as both were much wetter than normally. For me, as I didn’t go on holiday, it was great – I was exempted from duty of watering the garden, plus the water bill was lower.

But September did a good job and made up for wet and moderately warm summer months. It was much drier and sunnier and even the typical September’s nuisance – big daily temperature amplitudes weren’t as bothersome as usually. In a word – weather was perfect.

Superb Spanish weather site Ogimet gives some stats concerning weather in Warsaw in September 2011 (note for weather anoraks)

Average temperature: +15.1C – 3 degrees warmer than last year, 0.4 degrees cooler than in 2009 and some 1.5 above long-term average.

Month-time high: 5 September, +26.5C

Month-time low: 17 September, +2.7C (I don’t recall it…)

The warmest day: 12 September – average temperature of +19.4C (typical for July)

The coolest day: 17 September – average temperature of +11.1C.

Two more facts bear out that this September was pleasantly warm: firstly on no single day I had to wear more than two layers of clothing in the morning, I always could do with a shirt and a jacket and quite often got sweat on my way to work (too hot in the underground trains) and this year until today we haven’t turned the heating on. In 2008, 2009 and 2010 we were forced to do it respectively on 16 September, 1 October and 29 September.

Two first days of October also brought a whiff of warm air, yet it wasn’t as warm as forecasters had predicted – yesterday day-time high hit +21C, in line with meteorologists’ forecasts, today it was no warmer than +16C, two degrees colder than what weather forecasts had said. Over the whole weekend the gloss of the sunshine was taken off by northerly winds and one had to find shelter to bask in the sun. Actually despite some chill the weather’s been up to the mark. I mown my lawn today in the afternoon and then cycled in a T-shirt only and during both activities I broke sweat it means it wasn’t cool. The bike ride was perfect, but again, shame on me, I didn’t take the camera and couldn’t take pictures of all the stuff I was taking delight in. But comes another warm and sunny Saturday or Sunday, shall I go there again and snap, snap, snap…

Such warmth is not really unusual for this time of year. On 8 October 2009 temperature in Poland’s capital hit +24C and Poland’s October heat record of +28.6C was set on 14 October 1966. The coming two days should be warmer, with temperatures in Warsaw up to +22C and sunshine (how lovely), then Wednesday is going to be cooler, Thursday again warmer, and true Autumn is predicted to hit on Friday and stay over the election weekend. Weather in the second decade of October is rather unforeseeable, I saw forecasts of both dull days with temperatures between +10C and +15C, as well as return of gold autumn with temperatures up to +20C. Hope the latter proves true. The later gloomy autumn comes, the longer will people be able to save on heating (how practical).

I hope the coming winter will be milder than two previous ones. Long-term forecasts, hardly ever reliable, say winter will come early and go early as well. The current predictions for the coming months are as follows:

October: chilly and windy, what anyway means is will be warmer than in 2010, the worst will be the last decade, when temperatures will be often dropping below +5C.

November: cold and wet, the author of the forecasts adds “just like last year”. Doesn’t she / he remember the beautiful warm and sunny long weekend in mid-November 2010?

December: frosty and dry, with white Christmas. This to some extent resembles December 2010. I’m alright with white Christmas. Afterwards the winter may go to Russia.

January: frosty, dry, with changeable weather.

February: should bring above-average temperatures and early spring.

March: spring in overdrive.

I personally hope the forecast proves true for February and March, the rest doesn’t fill me with optimism. I would prefer a warm winter for three reasons:

1. the aforementioned heating bill,

2. I’ll keeping the car outside the warm garage for the first time. I have to replace the battery, and with a new one I shouldn’t be afraid of temperatures above –20C as long as the car will be used every day and the battery will be charged up, but heavy snowfalls accompanied by low temperatures can play havoc with the battery and other sensitive elements of the car. But wait, so many people keep their cars in open air, so maybe I’m seeking out problems. But on the other hand I saw so many people having troubles with their cars kept in open air in winter…

3. I wish the builders of roads for Euro 2012: Niech im zima lekką będzie. If the weather allows them to press on with works, then there will be a chance that roads will be completed by the end of 2012 (the odds that they’ll be passable in June 2012 are negligibly low).

When trying to predict weather for the winter on my own, I tried to find correlation between politics, economy and weather. Take a look:

2005/2006 – winter is harsh and snowy. Polish economy enters the period of boom, power is wielded by Kaczynski brothers (some say it is a punishment for voting for PiS).

2006/2007 – until 24 January there is no snow, heat records are beaten in mid-January, then ensues a short, yet typical winter that ends for good in the last week of February. Polish economy still grows rapidly, Poles are sick of twin brothers wielding power.

2007/2008 – the warmest winter of the last decade. Snow lingers for less than ten days, on the coldest day the temperature drops to mere –14C. Polish economy is still doing well, but the power is taken over by PO.

2008/2009 – typical Polish winter, with frosts hitting –22C in Warsaw, periods of thaw and snowstorms. Nothing new in politics, but Poland is hit by world-wide economic crisis. Funnily enough, Warsaw is paralysed by a snowstorm exactly the day bear market on Warsaw stock exchange and zloty against other currencies hit their troughs.

2009/2010 – harsh and snowy winter. PO still wields power, economy is rebounding. When stock markets go up in the second half of January, Poland suffers in the fetters of winter. When in first week of February winter eases off, bringing sunshine and temperatures slightly above zero, stock market in Warsaw plummets by 4% for two days in a row.

2010/2011 – cold and snowy December, normal January, cold, but dry February. PO is still ruling, yet the party is falling into pieces, economy still grows, albeit the peak of the business cycle is near.

To recap, I couldn’t observe any significant correlation. If you see any linkages, feel free to share them with other readers and me.

And regardless of what future holds, expect another Winter timeline in March 2012.