War knocking at our doors?

The full-scale war in Ukraine has gone on for 4 years 7 months, longer than anyone would predict and despite some tepid peace talks under way and intermittent ceasefires, the end thereof does not even loom on the horizon. The warfare is getting more cruel, on both sides, with Kiev being repeatedly hit by missiles, drones and rockets reaching targets in least (so far) affected western parts of the country. On the other hand for several months Ukraine has destroyed a large part of Russia's oil refining capacities, military plants and logistics infrastructure. Civilian buildings were occasionally struck too. Serves them right! The oncoming winter is likely to be an opportunity window to the tsar to bring the Ukraine to its knees, if Ukrainian energy and heating infrastructure are wiped off. This has already nearly happened last winter, but it does not mean Ukrainian cities will be able to withstand it infinitely.

Over the recent weeks one could hear warnings of NATO being put to the test. Russia will not hazard a full-scale war, but a limited intrusion, drone attacks, terrorist raids or false-flag operations are likely. Baltic countries are at most risk and they signal far-reaching preparations for some form of military aggression. The rhetorics "we know what you're into" foils Russia's plans and serves as a deterrent. But if Putin is wholeheartedly determined to mess with NATO, he will.

In Poland we won't see Russian tanks on the streets nor airplanes in the sky. But Russian drones hitting logistics hubs through which military equipment to Ukraine is transported, energy infrastructure or paralysing airports are not beyond imagination. So conceivable appears an attempt to hit two Warsaw's heating plants in the middle of a frosty winter.

The progress in military technology, i.e. the widespread use of drones has shot up and countries which do not continuously develop their technologies and don't test them on a battlefield, are doomed to lag behind. During peace, there is no chance to catch up with countries involved in warfare. For such reason I believe Poland and other NATO countries are not adequately prepared for a drone attack. If hundreds of drones are sent over Poland, I don't believe all of them will be intercepted or shot down, regardless of resources harnessed and costs borne.

Will NATO react if its territory is attacked? Stance of the USA remains a big question mark (although last week they deployed additional soldiers in Baltic countries). This month also the Slovak prime minister ruled out participation of his country's army in a plausible defence operation. Russia aims to render the NATO article 5 void, hence if Baltic countries are attacked, I am certain the Polish army should meet its obligations and take part in fending off the invader.

Gone are the times of peace. To boost odds of living in peace, we must get ready for a war and pay for it. Residents of south-eastern Poland are woken up by air raid sirens on most days. This sadly means one day when things get really nasty, they might shrug it off. One day we might face a blackout. One day we might run into a basement to find shelter. One day the Warsaw underground trains (I ride one while writing this) might become a target of terrorists. We live in turbulent times and need to get on with this.

The black dog* no longer at bay

What a nefarious twist of fate. Nearly exactly a year after boasting of giving up on antidepressants, I confess my brain carried on without them just for a year. Given that I had been through a few episodes in my lifetime, the risk of a relapse was relatively high and it materialised. It could have been most likely prevented by staying on a smallest therapeutic dose, yet my psychiatrist and I decided I would take a chance.

Despite headwinds in several areas of life, my mood was roughly positive until late spring. Around then, bout of overwhelming senselessness and void began to encroach me (they were reflected in this post). I was putting my feeling down to imminent or commencing middle-age crisis, but as I was still full of energy, though with no idea how to make use of it, I shrugged it off as a signal of depression. But frustration, irritability, anxiety and early wake-ups were, with hindsight, a set of indications another episode would be in the offing.

All of this was accompanied by a haunting conviction odds of long-lasting good times ahead of me were shrinking.

Around the end of August I began running out of energy. The feeling of meaninglessness has intensified and negatively impacted what psychiatrists call a drive. Less drive meant more fatigue, subdued appetite and libido, being less decisive, worse quality of sleep.

The picture which emerged was a familiar one. It kept me company for a fortnight, so there was no other choice, but to seek medical aid. As of now, a few days after first uptake of medicines, I only feel mild side effects, but an improvement in mood and drive is (hopefully) a matter of a few weeks.

The episode reminds me how complex a human brain is and that willpower is limited. It will not defeat the flawed chemistry in your brain. In the meantime I hope my lust for life returns and in a few weeks (and coincides with the most depressing month of the year, November) life will again be full of colours and prospects of future in my head get brighter.

* to learn what a "black dog" stands for, refer to Winston Churchill's memories. 

Summer 2026 - Warsaw weather summary

In most part of Europe, the summer of 2026 was the hottest since records began. The continent was plagued by seven heatwaves:
1. Late May – hit Western Europe, in Warsaw temperature did not exceed +29C.
2. Late June – lengthy, the most intense and severe, in many spots, including Warsaw, the toughest since records began and record-breaking.
3. Mid-July – moderate, in Warsaw temperature topped above +30C once, on 17 July.
4. Early August – severe, lengthy, but not record-breaking in most areas, yet affected Poland.
5. Mid-August – short, intense, in Warsaw one day-time high above +30C on 15 August.
6. Late August – hit southern Europe most. In Warsaw temperature did not rise above +27C.
7. Early September – affected Western and central Europe. In Warsaw two days with maximum temperatures above +28C.

As seen in the summary above, Poland had to endure only two dreadful heatwaves and basically was treated relatively mildly, comparing to thermal shocks in France, the UK, Austria or Hungary.

All in all, with:
- June 2.4 Celsius degrees warmer, July 0.3 Celsius degrees colder and August 1.0 Celsius degrees warmer than long-term average (1991 – 2020), the entire summer was warmer than long-term average (+19.9C vs. +18.8C benchmark), but still reasonably cooler than the warmest 2024 summer (mean temperature: +21.1C) and eighth warmest since records began.

Heat records in Poland were broken during both intense heatwaves, with Warsaw setting a new all-time maximum temperature record of +38.1C. It will be difficult to beat, but sadly, a new record is just a matter of time.

In 2026 Warsaw recorded 3 days with highs above +35C (in 1994 there were four such days).

On 18 days maximum temperatures exceeded +30C. This is fewer than in 2024 (24), 2015 (also 24), 2006 (22), 2022 (19), 1994 (19) and at the par with 2019 and 1992. Of note – before 1990 the maximum number of hot days did not exceed 16 in a year.

Warsaw also endured 9 tropical nights (record from 2019 tied), including the most awful one, with minimum temperature of +24.7C (previous record beaten by +1.9 Celsius degrees).

Rainfall-wise, at first sight the situation wasn't disturbing. In June total precipitation reached 94% of long-term average, in July – 137% and in August – 135%. Nonetheless, preceding winter and spring were exceptionally dry and summer rains, including downpours, could not make up for it. Hydrological drought, in place in Poland since approximately 2014, has got only worse. These days level of Wisła is hitting all-time lows, with flow of water also being historically slow.

Looking ahead, the biggest puzzle is the indirect impact of probably the strongest El Nino ever on weather in Poland. Temperature of waters in Pacific does not influence weather in Europe much, but most forecasts hint at increased North Atlantic Oscillation, which would bring warm, plausibly the warmest on the record and rainy winter into Europe. Bearing in mind bleak prospects of war in Ukraine, rising natural gas prices and low level of gas stores kept in Europe, I keep fingers crossed for a mild winter.

Luksus kontra proste życie - book review

Luxury and simplicity are starkly contrasting lifestyle foundations, albeit some try to combine them.

Simplicity, depending on how to define it, might be a positive or a negative notion, while luxury, at least until recently, has brought out mostly positive associations.

A luxury's distinguishing marks are: limited supply, not being a part of everyday life, or being enjoyed by few chosen (elites). Whatever is experienced frequently, or by masses does not deserve to be called a luxury. For some reasons, luxury is what many people strive for. How they pursue it, depends on their social status.

The poor flaunt material goods, especially those eye-popping, the rich benefit from their wealth in silence. The poor buy small, visible stuff (electronics, clothes, footwear, used cars of premium makes), some of the rich take delight in comfort of life and not proving their wealth to anyone. The poor consume to show off, the rich accumulate, building a cushion for rainy days.

Shunning thoughtless consumption requires guts and strong will. It involves rising above pressure of consumption which surrounds us from all angles. Doing so requires self-confidence and self-esteem rooted in who you are, not what you possess.

The book praises DIY as a virtue, drawing on traditions of craftsmanship and resourcefulness. Doing (not only constructing, more often repairing) things on one's own best symbolises sprawczość (a concept best represented by English words such as: agency, self-efficacy, empowerment, though none of them fully grasps the purport).

The biggest trap of minimalism is not getting obsessed with self-discipline essential to cut down on lavish spending, but disdain towards those who have not taken the same path. Whenever I look down on drivers of oversized SUVs I catch myself having fallen into that trap. The author of the book, Mr Jakub Szczęsny has apparently also not resisted it. Besides, if minimalism becomes an ideology governing your life, you can go over the top with it and plunge into another extreme, making the life of your near and dear a misery.

The book is a manifesto of simple, yet comfortable and slow life. As the author points out, humans can draw happiness from giving up on chasing consumption. Life gets easier when pressure is released, yet I believe in order to reach that stage, one must attain a level of affluence sufficient not to worry about basic material needs and unpredictable situations in which financial resources would be a lifeboat. My post oddly coincides with a fellow blogger's musings, which overlap the notion of what a comfortable life is.

I usually recommend books I review here, but not this one. I see most things eye to eye with the author, but his scribble is tough to read, too lengthy, some chapters are a string of complaints and between the lines self-superiority comes up. Even though the ending makes up for mediocre middle chapters, my overall advice is to read it at your own risk.