Warfare enters its fifth year

The special three-day operation of taking over Ukraine has gone on for more than four years. Four years ago nearly nobody expected that war to last that long, nor believed Ukraine would be capable of resisting the invader and keeping the frontline basically unchanged for months.

The Western countries have shaken off the shock quickly and launched a stream of military and financial aid to Ukraine, often depleting their defensive resources. The invasion has been a wake-up call for those still deluding themselves Russia would not infringe principles set out in the civilised world.

Hollow promises of the US president have not brought a ceasefire for more than a year and little implies there is a chance for warfare suspension in near future. This buys time for Western Europe for preparation for a war with Russia, while the tsar's country slowly bleeds out instead of growing stronger. 

In early 2026 Ukrainians have endured a first harsh winter since the onset of war. As the oppressor focused on destroying the country's energy infrastructure, millions of them have lived through a humanitarian disaster living in blocks of flats devoid of electricity, central heating and running water (except for that from heating pipes cracking when frozen over).

The nation as a whole remains valiant, though it is worth underlining civilians living far from the frontline are not as severely affected as during typical warfare. Ukrainians have got used to (as one can get used to everything) to blackouts, cold and having to run to shelters a few times a week, but except for that, their lives are not at constant peril. The enemy's missiles, rockets and drones target infrastructure, but to a much lesser extent, residential areas.

Over the past months the frontline has not moved much west, while in the recent weeks, thank to disruption of Starlink connection, Ukrainians have regained control over some minor areas (which are burnt grounds anyway). Peace talks are going nowhere and nothing is going to change in this respect, as the invader is not a trustworthy partner.

As four years ago the outbreak of war was beyond our imagination, these days the vision of end of war is also equally hard to imagine. I realise it is a controversial assertion, yet I keep fingers crossed for continuation of warfare. Firstly, since I fear Russia, devoid of the burden of warfare and (heaven forfend) with sanctions lifted will be able to step up preparations for a war with NATO. Secondly, the Polish labour market, deprived of only part of the Ukrainian workforce, will plunge into a structural crisis, as most low-paid jobs have been taken up by migrants (or refugees) from Ukraine. Poles are no longer interested in many of those occupations, so to fill the gap, if some of Ukrainians head home, substantial pay rises would be necessary, triggering a spike in inflation.

#StandWithUkraine

#UkraineStayStrong

More than a hangover

Blogging continuity is a virtue itself, so despite headwinds I am leaving hereby a short note, saving for posterity the outcomes of my folly. On Friday a few lads came over to my place. We emptied too many bottles. This resulted in a severe punishment from my body, which on Saturday refused to put up with the excessive alcohol intake the evening before.

The entire day wasted, so with other duties to get on with during the weekend I need to put back my posting on the Ukraine until next weekend. Already roughly fine, but still feel the effects of noting eating a crumb yesterday and having my digestive system irritated by throwing up the Friday evening’s content yesterday morning. A proper poisoning past me.

Not asking for sympathy, just facing the music. Past this bout of crass stupidity I will hold back from going overboard with alcohol for a long time.

Any room left for romantic love?

The timing of the post, i.e. one day after the commercial festival of celebrating romantic love which should be fostered every day, is haphazard. Also, it is not linked to the 17th anniversary of launching PES (dammit, this blog spans nearly my entire adult life and in four years, if I carry on, it will cover a half of my lifetime).

As I grow older, I also turn less romantic and more pragmatic. I would probably be unable to fall in love like a teenager, but circumstances permitting, the chemistry in my brain would do its job for a while, but I would put it down to mostly to sexual drive, not just to pure affection. As the fellow blogger posits, understand your biology, then rise above it.

Even if I don't stay at home and grab opportunities to meet new people, rules of statistics are against me. Even if I get to know 20 new people each week, which looks like a decent outcome, statistically half of them are men, most women are not in the age range of my lookout, those who are in their 30s might be in relationships, might not be physically attractive, might not find me attractive, might not be interested in raising a family. And so the next filters relentlessly narrow down the circle of potential life companions.

My generation is the first one not to feel the coercion to raise a family, which now looms as an option only for those who instinctually don't want our species to extinct. We are also witnessing a generation of independent women, cherishing equal rights, with the side effect of realising having a man by their side does not have to add value. Being in a relationship is viewed as beneficial if drawbacks of giving up on a woman's independence are offset with a surplus by what a man contributes to the relationship. Otherwise a male life companion is (for a growing fraction of women) a ball and chain. With the bar raised that high, a growing majority of men do not live up to women's expectations, some even give up on trying.

For many reasons, including the above, we observe a growing percentage of singletons in the society, many of whom have never been in a serious (involving making commitments or living under one roof) relationship, thus many lacking relationship-building competencies. Once you get used to living on your own and not minding anyone, letting in somebody to your life, changing habits, routines and plans involves some effort. This remark applies to me. In my life filled with work, volunteering, friends, helping parents, doing sports and other stuff, I also need to choose to make room to let somebody in.

Women and men are sadly at war today. The most common explanation, which is true, but not universal, is that women have moved ahead with their social advancement, while men have not caught up. In more complicated cases it turns out even those men who do not lag behind are insufficient, since they meet only 90% of women’s expectations are hence are not knights on white horses. Women are sick of bitter experiences inflicted by immature men, men are sick of women’s exorbitant requirements. Their picture of the conflict between females and males is grossly simplified. Besides, movements such as MGTOW (Men Going Their Own Way) are not fix. Taking umbrage with how the world has moved on and blaming women for their own backwardness and other intellectual hollow is an approach I will never embrace (mark my words).

Stowarzyszenie Wiosna brought to account

My charity involvement experience in 2025 - has already been comprehensively summarised and since then, I have not changed my mind with respect to far-reaching criticism towards Szlachetna Paczka's arrangers. The 2025 edition will be finalised for me in late March 2026, when a sofa, ordered just recently and replacing a shoddy one bought online by donators and returned to the shop, is delivered.

In one of the discussions past the final weekend, the leader asked about Stowarzyszenie Wiosna's financial statement. The penny dropped, while I dropped everything to look into publicly available financials of the organisation for 2024.

The key findings are perplexing:
- In 2024 Stowarzyszenia Wiosna raised over PLN 31 million from private and corporate donators.
- Expenses for aid to those in need reached to more than PLN 4.5 million.
- As a non-profit organisation, it regularly produced operating profit of over PLN 6 million yearly and earned interest income of over PLN 1 million yearly from financial assets it held.
- At the end of 2024 the entity behind Szlachetna Paczka accumulated PLN 28 million in cash and bank deposits and PLN 6 million in corporate and government bonds. Financial assets increased by PLN 7 million vs. end of 2023.

Jaw drops open. Why has nobody made a mess about those numbers if the figures are within everyone's reach?

In early January 2026 I received an open invitation for an in-person meeting with Stowarzyszenia Wiosna's representatives in Warsaw, held yesterday. I signed up for it, wondering how much room for a genuine and open discussion would be given by the event's hosts.

It turned out the four-hour event was attended by mere 60 people and over most of its time we were split into five groups. The teamwork we had been meant to do was not fully done, as short discussion panels morphed into bitter experience sharing and I did not shun taking part in it. Stowarzyszenie Wiosna's employees listened carefully to all regrets spoken out during the sessions. Time will tell, if they take it to hearts. 

With respect to cash-richness of Stowarzyszenia Wiosna, I raised my reservations in person to one of executives after the event ended. We had a frank discussion, however I do not buy in the explanation that PLN 34 million is an atomic-case scenario reserve to carry on with the next edition if zero donations are made next year. Firstly because during 15 years of my hands-on experience in corporate finance I have never seen proceeds of any organisation going down by 100%, nor any entity bracing for such scenario. Secondly, because yearly running costs of Stowarzyszenie Wiosna are some PLN 10 million lower than its cash cushion, hence at least some room for depletion is given.

My mission is completed. I have accomplished more or less as much planned, i.e. spoke up, were audible, with little hope anything is going to change. Fighting itself ought to be a virtue even if you are fighting a losing battle. Sometimes you don't lay down your weapons just to assure yourself when you look in the mirror, you see a face of a man who acts righteously.

WOŚP

If I was to come up with the most renowned, but also the most controversial charity initiative in Poland, without hesitation I would point at Wielka Orkiestra Świątecznej Pomocy. Those who’d wish to translate its name into English could scratch their heads to figure out what Świąteczna stands for. The most common explanation is that it pertains to Christmas, as its first event was held in early January, shortly past the Christmas tide.

Beginnings of the initiative could be traced back to January 1993. Poland was in the state of flux past the downfall of communism. The nascent private sector was booming, but on the other hand several industries were on its knees. The public purse was not chock full of money, especially to fund growing needs of the health service, which has not moved ahead from the bygone era. From its beginnings, WOŚP was a fundraising, with proceeds aimed at purchasing medical equipment and donating them to public hospitals.

With time WOŚP collected more and more money, but also mobilised an army of enemies from the right wing of the political scene. Ample reasons could have been quoted, starting from outrage at Jerzy Owsiak, the initiative founder and leader, for espousing social views far from conservatism, through envy somebody recurringly mobilises an army of hearts, an achievement no one on the right side of the Polish political arena cannot boast of, to Mr Owsiak’s political involvement, unhidden since the very chap is hot-tempered.

Finances of WOŚP have been x-rayed by his enemies, claiming a far too small fraction of the money collected goes to purchases of medical equipment. I have analysed publicly available financial statements of the foundation and found no irregularities. Money raised from donators and bank account interest off it finance purchases of medical equipment (over a two-year observation period), while running costs of the foundation and its non-charity activities are covered by payments from sponsors and partners. Mr Owsiak and his life do live off running it, yet the founder’s salary is lower than mine, while his contribution to quality of life in Poland is a thousand times higher than mine, hence I see no point it in nitpicking.

If you compare annual proceeds from WOŚP to annual outlays on health service in Poland, you will find out WOŚP finances our health service for one day in a year. Two or three decades ago, deficiency of medial equipment was the major problem of the Polish healthcare system. Today, it is the shortage of doctors in combination with ageing society which brings the health service (not only in Poland) into imbalance. This problem is unlikely to be solved by any charity since it is a structural one, as supply of medical stuff is highly inelastic.

In 2026 WOŚP brings people together country-wide and has become an integral element of January (since 2021 the final day is on the last Sunday of January, being one of few Sundays in a year when shops are allowed to be open in Poland).

As in case of any charity, contributions to it ought to be voluntary. If you dislike it, for any reason, just do not donate. It is fine. But do not spread hatred. This year, as everyone noted, the range of loathing towards WOŚP in the public discourse was record-low. Maybe those not fond of the initiative have come to their senses and realised their outrage only boosts the funding for WOŚP.

With respect to me share in this magnificent pie, I can proudly boast of:
1) my home-made apple pie and cheesecake auctioned off for PLN 1,014
2) items I received as gifts as families under my care in Szlachetna Paczka in 2025 auctioned off in total for PLN 64,
3) I won auctions for:
- a handmade woollen cap and a scarf – bid of PLN 107,
- a voucher for bowling in Arena Ursynów – bid of PLN 160,
- a voucher for snooker in Arena Ursynów – bid of PLN 62,
4) besides I donated PLN 50 to a traditional can and PLN 30 to an online can.
The contribution above totals to PLN 1,487, which sets an ambitious target to be beaten in January 2027. Keep warm!

Buy cheap, buy twice

A long time ago I heard a woman who could be ranked among lower-middle class (in Poland there are no standards of social stratification, hence such assignment was purely judgemental) claiming she “could not afford to buy cheap stuff”. At that time I thought she was showing off she could afford some decent items to make up for her inability to buy more expensive durable goods, such as more comfortable dwelling. With hindsight, I recognise the wisdom in such attitude.

The musings should begin with a question whether there is a positive correlation between price and quality. I would argue it exists, yet not really strong. If you buy expensive items, you might be let down by their poor quality, yet if you buy cheap items, it is far more likely the cost of acquiring them reflects their shoddiness. There are bargains you might chase, but laws of economics remain unwavering – products or services of high quality might be attractively priced only for a short time, then the market will drift towards equilibrium.

With age (and rising earnings) I lean towards buying more expensive durable goods and my higher disposable income is not a core reason. I like using stuff for several years, I realise such consumer habits are good for the planet, I detest producing rubbish and I generally dislike shopping, so if I buy something that serves me for many years, it saves me hassle which replacing a defective or worn-out item involves. Besides, the comfort of using quality stuff is usually higher. Such approach requires a larger initial expenditure. As I point out, I pay more up-front, but over years I do not spend more money by replacing one shoddy item with another. Quite sadly, the initial outlay is the biggest barrier for the poorer who for financial reasons are stuck in a vicious circle of buying cheap stuff: furniture which fall apart after a few years, clothes which look like rags after a few washes, etc.

One would say it is contrary to manufacturers’ interest to put out durable objects, as capitalism is driven by ongoing, never-ending demand. Bosch brand, being a symbol of quality gives lie to this. My dishwasher has never let me down over 7 years. By dint of high quality, I have come by a driller, a universal brush, a wire detector and a washing machine, all manufactured by Bosch, which since decades has been a renowned producer of reliable and durable machinery. It earns on clients recurring to buy a different product, not to replace an item they bought a few years ago.

In purely economic terms, the strategy of buying expensive items does not always make sense, especially when quality does not go together with practical properties of an item or if you are going to use an item once in a blue moon. In the latter situation, sharing economy should be the answer, nevertheless despite some progress, Poland still lacks a well-organised platform for renting / borrowing stuff (such as tools used once a year or less often).

Forward-looking optimism?

Well, not actually. I'm moving ahead, as this is a part of my nature. I soldier on, against all odds and numerous headwinds I seem to be facing.

The world we are living in does not fill with hope. The biggest empire of the old world is ruled by a lunatic. His doubtful crackdown on lousy regimes does not fill one with compassion for dictators in Venezuela or Iran, but will bring little improvement for inhabitants of those countries. The orange bastard has still too much patience for the tsar. Despite allegedly good relationships with the tsar, the US ruler has not convinced him to agree on a ceasefire under conditions reflecting the pre-invasion order. The most dreadful is the vision of the orange dumbhead warranting to conquer Greenland, triggering an immediate NATO disintegration, a scenario desired most by Kremlin. Reassuringly, the system of checks and balances in the USA works well and hence the orange guy will be effectively held back.

Russia keeps bombarding Ukraine and the vision of peace is distant. I feel awfully sorry for the Ukrainian people (especially now, as they are coping with harsh frost below –20C), but on the other hand I realise while waging a war, Russia gets weaker, while a period of peace would let the tsar's country set itself up for a war against Western Europe.

In Poland I shun the online world, as my jaw drops open at the crass stupidity of those who bloat there the most. AI has made it even worse and the least clever part of society put credence in all deepfake content they come across. The two right-wing anti-EU parties have a total support of roughly 25% in the current polls, while the democratic coalition, standing for values of the civilised world, enjoys a total support above 40%. Not a bad outcome, given how it was envisaged to fall apart in the wake of the lost presidential election and in the world drifting right.

Family-wise, my parents are getting older, a phenomenon inevitable, expected and irreversible. Their health is around the average for their age, they still basically get on with daily life on their own, mostly thanks to my father's stamina (albeit his underlying diseases are a ticking bomb). Observing their mental aging gets me down most. They no longer have a can-do attitude and perceive matters which just have to be handled as problems. Watching them sliding slowly towards senility fills me with more pessimism than coming to terms with them being less physically fit and the realisation the moments they pass away are not in a distant future.

Work-wise, I think I'm getting ahead in the new role, but ask myself what it is for. If I don't raise a family and spending money does not give me particular joy, what is the point in earning more money? I will accumulate savings, hoping one day they will come in handy, but with little conviction there is a justification for chasing higher wages.

Health-wise I realise I have reached the age range when my conduct (nutrition, physical exercise, lifestyle, hours of doing sport per week) determines my health when I grow older. So far the spine is the only long-lasting predicament and I need to take preventive steps to keep it in reasonably condition, but I keep in mind what my orthopaedist once told me, namely it is not a questions whether my ailment recurs, but when and how badly it hits me.

My involvement in charity has worn me down. If downsides prevail over upsides, one needs to think over whether, regardless of benefits for the disadvantaged, such energy drain makes sense. As of now, I have not resolved whether to carry on with the Paczka next year, but with each next day I tilt towards giving up on it.

Relationship-wise, my attitude of being deprived of hope and belief that regardless of my efforts, mating attempts will get me nowhere, is disturbing. I may try to elaborate on this in some time, but my observations of single women in their 30s approach to romantic relationships can be summarised with one question reflecting their mindsets: “why do I need a man at all?” Full stop. Maybe with time and new chapter in online dating opened my I will change my mind. Whatever the fate brings, right-on is the approach to do my bit, as only interesting people are (sexually) attractive.

2026 will be a year of looking for a meaning in life. At some stage, humans choose among different ways of drowning out the feeling of emptiness. Until recently the most popular one was raising a family which consumed money and time, took away a lot of free time and set long-term milestones humans aimed at. With lifestyle shift in place, pursuit of hobbies, travelling, doing sports, indulging in pleasures and many other ways of increasing one’s dopamine levels have grown in popularity, but they still have a common denominator – they let forget about the overwhelming existential hollow.

Is my mindset depicted above as sign of relapsing depression? I hazard a guess it does not qualify as a mental disorder. It is a natural reaction to a chain of mostly bitter experiences which have come down on me in recent months. As an intelligent human being, I emotionally respond to them. My drive and self-esteem are in order and I retain the ability to cherish joyful moments, despite being overcome by long-term dejection. No need to take medications to get to grips with it. Time will either heal it or bring what I need to reconcile with I have no impact on.

Roll on spring! Warmth and longer days will do their bit in lifting me up.