War knocking at our doors?

The full-scale war in Ukraine has gone on for 4 years 7 months, longer than anyone would predict and despite some tepid peace talks under way and intermittent ceasefires, the end thereof does not even loom on the horizon. The warfare is getting more cruel, on both sides, with Kiev being repeatedly hit by missiles, drones and rockets reaching targets in least (so far) affected western parts of the country. On the other hand for several months Ukraine has destroyed a large part of Russia's oil refining capacities, military plants and logistics infrastructure. Civilian buildings were occasionally struck too. Serves them right! The oncoming winter is likely to be an opportunity window to the tsar to bring the Ukraine to its knees, if Ukrainian energy and heating infrastructure are wiped off. This has already nearly happened last winter, but it does not mean Ukrainian cities will be able to withstand it infinitely.

Over the recent weeks one could hear warnings of NATO being put to the test. Russia will not hazard a full-scale war, but a limited intrusion, drone attacks, terrorist raids or false-flag operations are likely. Baltic countries are at most risk and they signal far-reaching preparations for some form of military aggression. The rhetorics "we know what you're into" foils Russia's plans and serves as a deterrent. But if Putin is wholeheartedly determined to mess with NATO, he will.

In Poland we won't see Russian tanks on the streets nor airplanes in the sky. But Russian drones hitting logistics hubs through which military equipment to Ukraine is transported, energy infrastructure or paralysing airports are not beyond imagination. So conceivable appears an attempt to hit two Warsaw's heating plants in the middle of a frosty winter.

The progress in military technology, i.e. the widespread use of drones has shot up and countries which do not continuously develop their technologies and don't test them on a battlefield, are doomed to lag behind. During peace, there is no chance to catch up with countries involved in warfare. For such reason I believe Poland and other NATO countries are not adequately prepared for a drone attack. If hundreds of drones are sent over Poland, I don't believe all of them will be intercepted or shot down, regardless of resources harnessed and costs borne.

Will NATO react if its territory is attacked? Stance of the USA remains a big question mark (although last week they deployed additional soldiers in Baltic countries). This month also the Slovak prime minister ruled out participation of his country's army in a plausible defence operation. Russia aims to render the NATO article 5 void, hence if Baltic countries are attacked, I am certain the Polish army should meet its obligations and take part in fending off the invader.

Gone are the times of peace. To boost odds of living in peace, we must get ready for a war and pay for it. Residents of south-eastern Poland are woken up by air raid sirens on most days. This sadly means one day when things get really nasty, they might shrug it off. One day we might face a blackout. One day we might run into a basement to find shelter. One day the Warsaw underground trains (I ride one while writing this) might become a target of terrorists. We live in turbulent times and need to get on with this.

Trump's sanity?

I recent days it's not just US president's sanity being called into question, it's his insanity looming unquestionable.

Early this year he pulled off a 3-day operation of hunting down Venezuela's dictator and overthrowing his regime (all in the name of seizing the local oil deposits, not to spread democracy).

The war in Iran, sparked at the end of February, to some extent resembles (in military, not moral dimension) Russia's invasion into Ukraine. The USA's attempt to knock down the Iranian regime could drag on for a few years, circumstances permitting. Donald Trump has most likely not realised so far he messed with a hornet’s nest. Iranian people, in spite of being suppressed by a backward regime for 47 years, will not stand down. Trump might (provided he has not fallen back altogether) attempt to leave no stone unturned, burn the entire Iran to the ground, but the Persians will not succumb until they bleed out. At death knell they would fire the nuclear missiles towards their enemies just to go down in history as invincible.

Over the last weeks those of you keeping track of international politics have wondered what would happen the next day and whether Trump would keep his (hollow) promises of destroying Iran's infrastructure or bringing the country's history to a wicked end. The threat of nuclear war has never seemed so close in my lifetime. Now for a while it is gone.

The major upshot of the warfare is the fuel crisis, whose intensity remains uncertain. It is not just the blockade of the Ormuz strait that sent oil price skyrocketing. Drilling and refining capacities have been destroyed and given the global retreat from fossil fuels, it may make no economic sense to rebuild them. More expensive crude oil and natural gas are likely to keep us company for months, thus accelerating embracing green energy, while I won't hazard any guess if oil deficits would lead to fuel rationing and called off passenger flights.

Popularity of the US president has plummeted recently. His decisions do not only taint the reputation of USA as a cradle of modern democracy, but brutally hit wallets of ordinary citizens.

Democrats have been licking wounds after the awful defeat in 2024 elections, but given today's anti-Trump sentiment they are bound to win the mid-term elections in November 2026. They don’t owe it to getting their act together, but benefit from being labelled as the only opposition to Trump. I will watch the story unfold and keep looking forward to impeachment procedure in 2027.

Before it happens, I am keeping fingers crossed for Hungary, hoping today the country will democratically set itself free of the pro-russian authoritarian oligarchy. Under the rule of Victor Orban and his cronies Hungary became the poorest economy in the EU, with democratic institutions being a façade of what they ought to be. Hope the bleak period in Hungary’s history is drawing to a close.

Warfare enters its fifth year

The special three-day operation of taking over Ukraine has gone on for more than four years. Four years ago nearly nobody expected that war to last that long, nor believed Ukraine would be capable of resisting the invader and keeping the frontline basically unchanged for months.

The Western countries have shaken off the shock quickly and launched a stream of military and financial aid to Ukraine, often depleting their defensive resources. The invasion has been a wake-up call for those still deluding themselves Russia would not infringe principles set out in the civilised world.

Hollow promises of the US president have not brought a ceasefire for more than a year and little implies there is a chance for warfare suspension in near future. This buys time for Western Europe for preparation for a war with Russia, while the tsar's country slowly bleeds out instead of growing stronger. 

In early 2026 Ukrainians have endured a first harsh winter since the onset of war. As the oppressor focused on destroying the country's energy infrastructure, millions of them have lived through a humanitarian disaster living in blocks of flats devoid of electricity, central heating and running water (except for that from heating pipes cracking when frozen over).

The nation as a whole remains valiant, though it is worth underlining civilians living far from the frontline are not as severely affected as during typical warfare. Ukrainians have got used to (as one can get used to everything) to blackouts, cold and having to run to shelters a few times a week, but except for that, their lives are not at constant peril. The enemy's missiles, rockets and drones target infrastructure, but to a much lesser extent, residential areas.

Over the past months the frontline has not moved much west, while in the recent weeks, thank to disruption of Starlink connection, Ukrainians have regained control over some minor areas (which are burnt grounds anyway). Peace talks are going nowhere and nothing is going to change in this respect, as the invader is not a trustworthy partner.

As four years ago the outbreak of war was beyond our imagination, these days the vision of end of war is also equally hard to imagine. I realise it is a controversial assertion, yet I keep fingers crossed for continuation of warfare. Firstly, since I fear Russia, devoid of the burden of warfare and (heaven forfend) with sanctions lifted will be able to step up preparations for a war with NATO. Secondly, the Polish labour market, deprived of only part of the Ukrainian workforce, will plunge into a structural crisis, as most low-paid jobs have been taken up by migrants (or refugees) from Ukraine. Poles are no longer interested in many of those occupations, so to fill the gap, if some of Ukrainians head home, substantial pay rises would be necessary, triggering a spike in inflation.

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