The golden age - book review

Most books coming into by hands are recommended by someone else, but the reviewed one indeed has been chosen by someone else, but not precisely for me. The essay on the macroeconomic success of Poland after 1989 was an award in a contest for managers run by my employer and with a bit of luck I won it. Regardless of uncanny method I have come by it, I am glad it has landed on my bookshelf.

Oddly enough, the book, whose author, Mr Piątkowski, is a scholar at Oxford University, has been originally written in English. I have learnt it around the middle of my reading, having come across several excerpts having all features of clumsy translations of English sentences. I regret not having the chance to get familiar with the original version, yet at the end of the day, the cognitive experience would have been the same. Of note is that the first edition of the book was published in 2018. Since then there were some minor supplements and the last chapter was added, yet in the contemporary fast-evolving world, passing time has rendered some arguments outdated.

Regardless of what some populist politicians might tell you, Poland has made an impressive stride after 1989, absolutely unprecedented in its history; a progress all citizens have benefited from (though not to the same extent) we, a collective accomplishment Poles can be proud of.

In the first chapters of the book, the author explores drivers of economic growth, paying particular attention to purely qualitative ones, such as institutions, culture and mindsets of people. His musings bring back Micheal's question, whether collapse of communism should be put down to the system or to the people. Before Mr Piątkowski moves on to examine reasons why Poland used to fall behind western Europe for centuries, he reminds GDP is not a perfect indicator of people's welfare and happiness. Here, again, my thought are diverted to Michael's blog and his de-growth manifesto.

Over the course of its history, Poland could not boast of testimony of growth-conducive circumstances. Between 16th and 18^th century, when western European nations accumulated wealth, Poland was effectively under the rule of oligarchic caste of noblemen, who pursued their own interests, consumed fruits of peasants' work in countryside, fostering their backwardness, when in the West, middle class of merchants and upper-middle class of industry developers was nascent. The country, devoid of actual power exercised by a king and lacking money from tax collection, was gradually plunging into anarchy, which eventually led to partitions which wiped Poland off the map if Europe for 123 years.

Once Poland regained independence in 1918, it restored its pre-partition social structure with tiny elite minding its own business and keeping with country backward. The society was still predominantly agrarian, with poor access to education and health service. With such elites, the country had little chance to move forward.

The advent of communism, no matter how evil it was, turned the social structure upside down and flattened it. The bygone elites (those who survived WW2) were stripped off their wealth, while the descendants of the numerous lower class were given a chance for social advancement. Communist Poland has not only cracked down on illiteracy, but also gave a chance to children of peasants and blue-collar workers to get university education. As the author points out then, inclusiveness and low inequality of the Polish society were crucial for putting the country on fast-growth track after 1989.

The post-1989 advance was tough, painful and a deep recession was the price to pay for fast catching up with the West in subsequent years. The author points out a mix of factors, categorised both into "the system" and "the people" underpinned the period of unprecedented growth which with hindsight might beyond all doubt be called the golden age of Poland. The progress continued for many years despite the headwinds from the world economy and regardless of political groupings behind the wheel. Personal bias aside, leftist post-communists, centrist PO and right-populist PiS have all helped my country move ahead.

The best years are behind us. The distance to the richer west is narrower, cheap workforce is no longer our ace up the sleeve. Poland lacks cutting-edge innovativeness which could work to its advantage. Besides, demographics, especially fertility drastically lower than expected a few years ago, will become a massive burden hampering further development. Looking at the far end of the political arena at parties opposing Poland's belonging to the (imperfect, yet best available) civilised West and tilting at the empire of evil, one cries out: don't squander it.

Going back to the very review - after a brilliant beginning, with each chapter charm wanes and towards the end, the book gets not yet dull, but too academic. Nevertheless, anyone fond of economics and history of Poland should find time to get familiar with it.

Centralny Port Komunikacyjny - plans not abandoned?

The mega-airport along with accompanying infrastructure was one of the flagship megalomanic projects of the PiS government. Soon past the election most people hoped the project would be discontinued, sunk costs farewelled and the very concept consigned to the dustbin. Since the development was a serious one, a decision whether to carry on with it had to be substantiated. The government hence summoned up an audit committee and while onlookers expected it to bring to the light the nugacity of building a huge airport, the outcome of its works suggested the project is to gently modified, not given up on.

Having gotten familiar with it, I still have no idea why a huge Frankfurt-like airport makes economic sense in Poland, especially since similar undertakings are in early operational phase or contemplated within less than 500 miles away from it (Berlin, Hungary).

The railway component of the venture, though commendable, remains just an addition to the airport hub project. The recently unveiled CPK concept involves construction of high-speed railways between main cities in Poland (2 hours by train from Warsaw to Poznań, Kraków or Wrocław is what I expect), but it remains unclear to me, whether the very airport will be properly connected with a fast railway with Warsaw and Łódź. If not, the major alternative to get to the airport will be the already congested A2 motorway, which is planned to be added one lane in each direction on the Warsaw – Łódź section. I realise driving this road already is a nuisance, but during the modernisation period it will become a nightmare. On top, one should ask a question, whether investments in road infrastructure are that appropriate, especially since a huge stride has been made in last 15 years in that area, while spending on railways was relatively neglected over that period.

The government’s plan to upgrade Chopin and Modlin airports parallelly to the CPK construction sadly lacks coherency and does not seem the most prudent way to spend taxpayers’ contributions.

I fear if the airport indeed becomes a hub, it will spark off a spike in low-distance connecting flights, the biggest evil to the planet, as carbon dioxide emissions per kilometre flown are the highest on such journeys. While the climate change concerns begin to have only bigger impact on our lives, developing a mammoth air transport hub goes exactly against the flow. If a human should ideally travel by plane once in three years, or only once a year, in a bare-minimum scenario, how come this undertaking can stand to reason?

I wonder what prompted Mr Tusk to change his mind. Whatever the arguments are, they should be disclosed to the public and backed by numbers. Albeit for the climate-related reasons all forecasts pointing at increasing number of passenger flights year by year, seem at best misplaced.

Historical shop receipts

While cleaning up the hard disk of my computer I have come across a spreadsheet dated 4Q2015 in which I recorded prices of basic goods in shops at that time, to estimate the costs of living after I move out from my parents. Over 7 years later, after a few quarters of rampant inflation, I possess a quaint material for price comparisons. The list is rather modest and contains household goods, food and beverages, so the main stuff which lands in a shopping bag.

A few basic articles whose prices have gone up significantly since 4Q2015:
- lavatory paper – bygone cost PLN 3.59 per 8 rolls, today – around PLN 10 for the same quantity,
- bath sponge – then PLN 0.63, these days PLN 1.29 at Lidl,
- milk (3.2%) – then below PLN 2.00 per litre, today usually above PLN 3.50,
- 10 eggs – then for less than PLN 4.00, today twice as much,
- a loaf of bread – then around PLN 2.00, today usually no less than PLN 3.00 (in a supermarket, in a bakery it is more expensive),
- flour (1 kg) – then around PLN 1.30, today at least two times more,
- sugar (1 kg) – then close to PLN 2.30, today I believe PLN 5.00 (I buy it once in a blue moon).

But to my surprise, I have found goods, whose price has not gone up significantly (if at all) over that time:
- glass cleaner – then PLN 6.00 per litre, today you might find it at such price at bargain sales,
- Domestos (1 litre) – then PLN 7.00, today you can find 750 ml for PLN 6.00,
- instant tea (100 bags) – then PLN 6.00, today no problem to find Earl Grey from Lidl at such price,
- oranges – then for around PLN 4.00 – PLN 5.00 per kg, recently I saw ones for PLN 3.49 in Lidl.

The above are just exceptions which prove the rule. The costs of living have gone up in recent months by more than the official inflation, with prices of nutrients and dwelling upkeep eating up only bigger parts of households’ budgets, which bears out inflation hits the poorest most. In December 2022 the average salary in Poland reached PLN 7,330 before tax, up by 10.3% year-on-year, while the CPI rate stood at 16.6%, which means real wages declined by 5.4% year-on-year. For the first time since many years Poles have been impoverished and the trend is likely to continue at least for a few months.

Personally, albeit I am faring well financially, I am going to set up a spreadsheet of my personal expenses and divide them into a matrix of four categories: essentials and non-essentials, vs. recurring and non-recurring. I will fill it in based on my bank account statements and jotted down cash payments at the end of each month and after 12 months (otherwise one-off expenses will not count up properly) I will find out how much I need to spend monthly to eke out a living and how much I actually spend. I estimate the former is between PLN 2,000 and PLN 2,500 (including car maintenance) and the latter between PLN 4,500 and PLN 5,000. I pledge revert with a summary in early 2024.

Are we past the trough?

Had I been really good at economic forecasting, I would have been much richer, worked less and probably had more time to indulge in hobbies, including blogging. Sadly, predicting economic variables is, needless to say, subject to a lot of uncertainty. Time permitting, I keep track of what is going on in the real economy and on financial markets and spot some sparkles of optimism.

Stock markets, which usually anticipate economic recoveries, have rebounded recently, with the Warsaw Stock Exchange broad market index being some 20% above its low from early October. Some pundits warn it is just a major correction in the bear market, yet upbeat sentiment has definitely taken over recently.

Natural gas and electricity prices on commodity exchanges, though still volatile, have fallen off peaks from September. With natural gas storage facilities across Europe full, the threat of a severe energy crisis has been somewhat staved off. This also gives relief to entrepreneurs from who energy is an important item in the cost structure, except for those who hedged purchases at peaks.

Commodity prices have also adjusted to lower demand, which means, the demand for them might not necessarily fall. Brent crude oil now costs (in USD) roughly as much as before Russia invaded Ukraine.

The last glimmer of hope are PPI (producer price inflation) readouts, which signify decreasing cost pressure for entrepreneurs, which will with a delay of a few months should translate into lower consumer inflation.

Not all signals from the economy are bright. Profits of companies after 3Q2022 keep falling dramatically, which might hamper their investment plans and necessitate lay-offs.

Consumer confidence in Poland is also record-low, with wallets of ordinary people badly hit by prices of most basic goods rising faster than general inflation (+17.9% in October 2022). With negative real average wage growth (around -4% y/y) the discretionary spending must plummet and so far nothing indicates private consumption could recover soon.

Across Europe a big unknown is the threat of energy shortages during the winter. I lack competencies to assess how real that threat is, but if only the most energy-consuming industries are forced to suspend productions, effects of negative supply shock will spill over the entire economy, send inflation up.

In Poland much depends on the influx of refugees from Ukraine, where the Russian tyrant is trying to destroy the infrastructure to deprive civilians of electricity, heat and water during the winter.

Even if the worst has not come over, I believe it is a matter of a few months. Roll on spring!

On prices rising

Michael has beaten it to me, with a splendid account of what Poles have to face up to these days. The imminent price growth has been a par for the course since pre-pandemic times. Recent outburst of public outrage over prime minister Morawiecki’s purchase of inflation-indexed government bonds has left me unimpressed. I bought such securities for the first time in July 2019; my grasp of economics told me to protect against recklessly loose fiscal and monetary policies. Time has proven me right, while the pandemic and the war in Ukraine have amplified the effects of local policy errors.

Looking back at the autumn 2021, when I visited underprivileged families as a volunteer of Szlachetna Paczka, I remember well people complaining about rising costs of living, especially more expensive food, electricity and heating. I worried this could send millions of people into poverty if prices of essential goods keep rising like that. I also can boast of predicting the threat of stagflation which was in the offing even without warfare on the horizon.

The factors which to some extent will continue to drive prices up are: the pandemic (not really likely to ease off for good), the fight against climate changes (which prompts consumers to change their habits) and the sanctions against Russia. The very latter will sadly hit more those who rightly aim to punish Russia for its cruelty, than the Russians, who for centuries have been accustomed to depravity.

The struggle which looms ahead of Poles now is multi-faceted.

Food prices will not go down due to droughts, shortages of fertilizers and higher energy prices. Climate change and negative supply shocks related to the war in Ukraine will push millions into famine, while residents of the developed countries will need to spend larger parts of their household budgets for nutrition.

Dwelling upkeep costs will not go down as well. They will be kept high by the push for the greener energy and decreased supply of fossil fuels from Russia. This will be painful for several poorer Poles, who will need to save on virtually everything to keep their houses warm during the coming winter. I believe we will all need to give up on some thermal comfort in months ahead and withstand temperatures of +18C in our interiors. Appallingly, some European countries, such as Germany and Austria are about to switch on their once shut down coal-burnt power plants, committing a sin of not restarting their nuclear power plants whose environmental impact is incomparably lower than of burning coal.

Fuel prices have gone up by some 50% vs. February 2022 and they might decline a but, yet given the cost of transport is included in nearly every price, even without direct exposure to petrol stations’ price lists, everyone will be worse off. So far, judging by traffic volumes, few people have given up on motoring in favour of public transport, cycling or walking – does not bode well for the economy, for the climate and for the public health.

What is being first hit by the inflation is demand for discretionary, non-essential goods. But if are to gain control over the surging prices, we must stop chasing such goods, resist the temptation to flee money. The circulation of money has to be contained, hence lending ought to be curbed and saving should be encouraged.

I have no good news for you. The best times for our civilisation are already past us. We have to brace ourselves for austerity unseen since decades. Many of us will need to watch every zloty before spending it. Our consumer habits will need to be rethought. Wisdom and sustainability will have to take over. Sharing will have to become an alternative to buying.

Besides, I am glad personally I am not impacted badly by the inflation. I put aside less money monthly, but do not have to abandon any expenses for purely financial reasons (I drive even less, but not because I cannot afford to fill up my car). My savings are shielded reasonably well from the inflation. Each day I am thankful for the sense of financial security. I hope this gratitude fends off the evil, albeit the outbreak of war east of Poland, being a tragedy to millions of innocent people, reminds nothing can be taken for granted.

The war in Ukraine – implications for the Polish economy

Inevitably, the Russian invasion into the Ukraine, even if hopefully the warfare stays beyond Poland’s border, has and will have impact on our lives. While keeping fingers crossed for the Ukraine’s victory over the heinous aggressor, I am trying to sum up what the conflict means for my country’s economy. As the course of events is difficult to predict, I shall focus on short-term effects, triggered by what has happened so far and split my analysis into eight areas.

1. The labour market.
Currently two sectors face a scarcity of workforce, namely construction and transport which both employ many Ukrainian male workers, some of who have decided to return to their homeland to take up arms. The flow of Ukrainians in productive age into Poland in turn comprises mostly of women (men aged 18-60 are not allowed to leave Ukraine, with some exceptions). They are willing to find a job, yet nobody knows how long the situation will persist and therefore how many of them will come up with supply of work. Quite many of the refugees surely hope the war ends soon and they will be able to return to their homes.

2. The housing market
The inflow of several hundred thousand Ukrainians to Poland (I count out those in transit) trigger a rising demand for flats for rent. The supply of dwellings is constantly dwindling, with many Ukrainians affording to rent flats at market rates. Vacancy rate is going to go down, prices have reportedly nudged up. Poles looking for a place to rent have it now uphill, but with some landlords unwilling to let their spaces to Ukrainians, everyone will find a roof over their head. I hold back from foreseeing a trend in property prices, as there are several other factors which will impact them, with interest rates, rising costs of living and mounting construction costs coming to the fore as price-shapers.

3. The exchange rate
I believe unless something unexpected happens, financial markets are already past the shock phase, though volatility remains high. The Polish currency after hitting levels unseen since two decades (or never seen) is slowly appreciating, but I suppose it will level off at above 4.50 (EUR/PLN) and 4.00 (USD/PLN).

4. Inflation
Given that cutting down on deliveries of commodities from Russia has triggered a negative persistent supply shock and that wheat yields might be even 25% lower, which is bound to bring up food prices, we need to brace for a double-digit inflation lasting for over a year, until the base effect begins to work (alternatively we might fall into a spiralling inflation, bring it under control might be painful).

5. Government finances
Given that accepting refugees from Ukrainians and providing them with humanitarian aid will be shifted from citizens and NGOs to the central and local governments, the budget deficit is likely to rise. What the government definitely needs to do is to arrange a scheme of covering those expenses by the European Union. The costs of helping Ukrainians should be shared equitably, while Poland, by dint of being geographically on the frontline, will be one of the main beneficiary of those funds. Solidarity within the EU must manifest itself in that area.

6. Foreign trade
Here I expect little to happen – I hope once Ukraine emerges victoriously from the war, it will become one of Poland’s main trade partners. The trade with Russia and Belarus, except for commodities, used to be quite marginal and those engaging in it were accepting high political risks. The risks have materialised, risk-takers have to lick wounds. I have no sympathy for them.

7. Consumer habits
Over the recent weeks many households have spent lots of money on humanitarian aid to Ukrainians. They have also realised living costs are bound to go up and austerity might set in. I predict consumers will be less reckless in spending and will think twice before giving away money. With the rising costs of dwelling upkeep, transport and food, discretionary spending is likely to go down.

8. Getting greener
The positive side effect of the war will be acceleration of efforts to decrease the reliance on fossil fuels. In the short run a good time to decrease the temperature inside your house, to give up on driving unless really necessary (I can boast of driving merely 294 kilometres since my last visit to the petrol station on 12 February when I fuelled up my car’s tank to the full, paying mere PLN 5.18 per litre).

Bullshit Jobs - book review, plus some odd thoughts

After more than ten years into corporate credit analysis, without hesitation I can assure I appreciate my job. Despite some drawbacks, particularly the necessity to work overtime more or less often, it continues to offer me learning opportunities, it is not repeatable and far from boredom. I also believe it brings value added to the society and to the economy.

In simple words my job is to assure that money depositors store on bank accounts is safely lent to large companies. I dabble in traditional banking which is about taking deposits and granting loans rather than devising exotic financial instruments detached from real economy to earn money on speculation. Here I recall a scene from Margin Call film, in which one of characters, a quant who has just lost a job in investment banking, compares himself to a civil engineer whose job has tangible outcomes, such as a bridge. Sadly, the author of the book paints traditional and modern banking with the same brush and claims both are totally useless to the society, thus bearing testimony to his economic ignorance.

I have never thought my job can be socially useless, but several times I thought of people whose jobs brings little value added, therefore a few months ago I queued up in my library to borrow Bullshit Jobs – a bestseller book which dwells on a growing problem of people whose occupation seems to make no sense.

The sight of people whose jobs make no sense brings to mind communist economic regime, in which joblessness was voluntary, yet my no means somebody having a job was doing something useful. Pursuit of full employment was, however, characteristic not only to communism, but to Keynesianism worked up in the wake of the Great Depression in 1930s. Back then, when unemployment was a huge drag on the demand side of the economy, employment was increased at all cost in order to kick-start the economy and to trigger a more natural demand from those finally offered a job. Since that time, low unemployment has become one of key goals of economic policymakers, commonly acknowledged by societies, with demerits of such agenda (i.e. the bullshit jobs) being considered less harmful than higher joblessness.

So when the heck is your job a bullshit one? The author comes up with a simple definition – your occupation is senseless if you do something and nobody notices it. Fine, familiar with the definition, I revisit my position and scope of duties, which have evolved over more than a decade.

Keeping in mind the broader sense of what I do, I notice particular mundane tasks which actually waste my time, such as:
- filling in too many tables to feed the bureaucratic monster of managerial reporting,
- ticking off policy compliance checkpoints – a side effect of regulators’ effort to save the banking industry from subsiding at it did in 2008,
- attending too many meetings, some which are not particularly productive.

While being unable to influence the two former time-consuming activities, I try to take control of meeting into my hands and not let discussions drift into pointless threads. Instead, I ensure that conversations are straight into the point, concise and add value for every participant (I hate it when a meeting is attended by 10 people, but only 3 or 4 open mouths).

I also discern a problem of being supervised by too many managers. If I work on a transaction, it usually needs to be talked over with my team leader, with the head of my department, with the head of my area and with the chief credit officer. One person (me) to do the sheer work, four to supervise me. If I can see excess employment in banking, it is one managerial positions, where array of duties pertaining to supervising, co-ordinating, managing, delegating, facilitating is excessive as well.

I see it eye to eye with the author that companies have focused too much on improving processes and they waste resources on their pursuit to improve something, while benefits are meagre. This happens when you hire people to enhance processes instead of leaving it to ingenuousness of staff for who a process is a daily bread. A perfect example is the implementation of Agile methodology by my current employer. We, normally working people used come to the office, sit at our desks and knuckled down to work. They came to talk about working, design working. As we commented on it, we worked, they talked their heads off about working, their work was to take our work into pieces. Three years into the pursuit of the Agile, I observe the effects of trial-and-error search for improvement, rather than anything which has tangibly streamlined my duties.   

The authors aptly notices the recent decades have brought a substantial increase in productivity which firstly ceased (since 1970s) to translate into higher earnings of rank-and-files and secondly did send employment on decline. As machines took over several mundane and physically destructive jobs from people, not only machine operators, designers and maintenance crews had to come into place. The increase in productivity somehow sparked off a lot of administrative functions without which industries had functioned before. My bank last year hired a well-being officer. I have no idea what that person does apart from posting some useless notes on the intranet. If my employer fosters my well-being they should ensure I do not spend too much time working, so that I am not stressed-out and have time to family, friends, to relax, to do sports and keep fit. I will take care of myself if I have enough time and money. I do not need to be looked after by a well-being officer whose salary decreases my bonus (if the bank’s net income is to stay intact)!

Moreover, new industries have emerged which I consider spongers. Over those more than ten years I have singled out two professions which are very costly, but add little value. First are consultants, who get paid for borrowing your watch to tell you the time (14 years after reading that joke for the first time and having seen effects of work of big four companies and the top-class advisors, such as Boston Consulting Group or McKinsey, I am more than sure their contribution is not worth money they are paid), second are (some, but not all) intermediaries, living off commissions from transaction parties, with special focus on estate agents, whose reputation in Poland has been duly and deservedly tainted.

The author in his book fails to dwell on the phenomenon of pretending and deceit, which functions in public and private corporate world. Employees pretend they work, an employer pretends to appreciate their work. This vicious circle keeps turning, because nearly everyone has a vested interest in preserving it. I believe the author wrongfully points out people whose jobs are senseless are genuinely unhappy. I believe lots of people are glad to be paid for doing little and just some percent (including them) need to see the sense and value added in what they do.

Impressions after reading? The book is too leftist. Despite my restraint to joyfully embrace a free-market agenda, I find it hard to hold dear the idea of the basic income, especially as a measure to root out bullshit jobs. The author has probably not had too deep insights into organisations, as some of his observations are right at the first sight, but at second thoughts, doubts whether his straightforward view of the world is accurate begin to appear. And finally, the book is a reminder humans are social creatures and are not cut out for isolation – this ought to be repeated to employers who have cherished cost savings generated by home office and want to stick to such solution after the pandemic is brought under control.

Pandemic diary - week 1

The coronavirus pandemic is the biggest disruption to people living in the war-free and disaster-free parts of the world since the end of WW2. Once we endure it, it will become a history. Worth saving those days for posterity.

Monday, 16 March 2020

Cold morning. Jumped on my bike to a local one-day hospital to find out whether my mother has her visit, scheduled for today, cancelled. To my surprise, the centre operates normally, but who knows whether her eye surgery, scheduled in a week will be performed (update: it is cancelled until further notice).

At work things take a worse than expected turn. We switch into 10-hour working day and begin to pursue our banking state of emergency to ease distressed customers.

Tuesday, 17 March 2020

A 10-hour working day is just a theory. Disruptions in trade prompted businesses to act defensively to shield their liquidity, which in fact means many industries have run into a state of all-in payment gridlock. The scale of cut-off has risen well below my expectation. I miss a company in my lonely fight.

Wednesday, 18 March 2020

Finally my spirits somewhat lifted. I have shaken off the shock, which had been my reaction to how businesses had responded to harsh measures against the pandemic. At work we have tried out videoconferencing. At least it gives a substitute of a fellow man’s presence.

Day-time high of +17C, so I spend nearly the entire afternoon in the balcony with notebook on my knees, my skin catching sunrays. I knock off before sunset (only once this week) and go for a walk. The sight of groups of teenagers hanging around in the open air brings me down and so does the report of the daily death toll in Italy – 475 fatalities of the virus over last 24 hours. In terms of total deaths, Italy will probably overtake China tomorrow (update – it did); in terms of deaths per 1,000,000 citizens it has surpassed China several days ago.

Thursday, 19 March 2020

I wonder what impact the coronavirus will have on the housing market in Poland. Some analysts say after buyers shake off (i.e. a few weeks after the epidemy comes to an end) prices will continue to rally, especially with slashed cost of credit. I believe property prices are correlated strongly with macroeconomic environment and will slowly decline (property prices unlike share prices are rather rigid) for a few quarters. In the meantime the rental market has invented a niche – flats for rent for a fortnight quarantine – such ads are immediately removed by site administrators.

The president of the Polish central bank said today Poland’s GDP growth will decline to +2% y/y in 2020. Who is he going to fool? I predict a sharp recession, observing how businesses have grinded to a halt. I believe the central bank should not further cut interest rates, while the benchmark rate ought to stay at 1% only until the economic recovery is confirmed.

At work today from 8:00 a.m. to 8:30 p.m. (with an hour-long break for an afternoon walk)

Friday, 20 March 2020

There should be no delusion – everyone will pay the bill for the economic crisis which has just started. There is no point is hoping the government will absorb it. The government does not have its own money, it collects money in taxes. What the government can do is to:
1) try to distribute costs of the crisis for equitably,
2) defer payment of the bill until economy recovers.

Authorities of Warsaw have finally decided that since next week public transport will run according to weekend timetable. I have had enough of sight of buses running nearly empty or totally empty through Ursynów, unnecessarily emitting fumes and greenhouse gases and increasing wear-and-tear beyond what is necessary. A month ago I would bridle at somebody who would tell me in four weeks I would advocate using private cars (not shared cars, not taxis) for moving around town. I last drove out of the garage on Sunday (so I do not use the car more than I really need not) and move around on foot, by bike or by car, depending on distance and weather. Once the epidemy is gone, I will revert to praising public transport.

At work today from 7:30 a.m. until 9:00 p.m. (with an hour-long break for an afternoon walk)

21 March 2020

Listened to an interview with Jarosław Kaczyński at RMF FM. Listen to it or read it here and draw your own conclusions.

The presidential election, due in May 2020 need to be postponed, this goes without saying and does not need additional justification.

Today at work for merely 5 hours, to catch up with stuff which need to be ready on Monday morning.