Showing posts with label blogging. Show all posts
Showing posts with label blogging. Show all posts

Sunday, 14 February 2021

Twitter

My New Year’s resolution for 2021 was to set up an account on Twitter. I report I did so on 6 January 2021.

I confess to have had ambitions to become an influencer for years. In recent months they have given way to an unhealthy inclination to root out all the evil in the world and a predilection to engage in discussions with people and institutions followed by thousands of Twitter users. I also wanted to vent my anger with current goings-on, so that my voice became audible.

Just like with blogging, I am constrained by my profession. Several weeks ago a CEO of a large company being a client of my employer made a nasty remark on my profile picture on facebook. The chap is known for his pro-life views, while my profile picture reflected my pro-choice stance. I kindly rebutted his conversation starter by underlining my private views were not the subject of our business call. It worked and the conversation had absolutely no echoes in the organisation, yet reminded me I ought to preserve my anonymity.

After a weeks of presence on Twitter, I have the following observations:
- quickness of reaction does matter – if you want to reply wittily to someone’s tweet, you have less than one minute to invent, type and publish it; otherwise someone else will come up with the same thought,
- the application is a veritable time-suck,
- reputable users with thousands of followers just send tweets and let things drift, i.e. do not engage in discussions in comment threads to their tweets,
- wise people usually do not spend time online sharing their wisdom, but cretins have plenty of time and energy to show off their stupidity.

Tweeter has reminded me of an old Polish adage: Nie dyskutuj z idiotą. Najpierw sprowadzi dyskusję do swojego poziomu, a potem pokona doświadczeniem. Or the meme to the right. It also brought back memories of clashes with fellows of Toyah on his blog a decade ago. Ten years have passed but the rhetoric of trolls has not evolved much.

In my futile mission to save the world I wished to crack down on the most harmful group of trolls quite numerous these days, i.e. anti-vaxxers. Predictably, it just ended up with dead-end polemics with fools. I wonder who has a vested interest in widespread activity in anti-vaccination campaigning. The answer that it could be tracked down to Russia does not hold water, as Russians have produced their own vaccine, therefore painting the picture of death-causing vaccines makes no sense.

The eye-popping activity of anti-vaxxers has also prompted me to rethink my views of freedom of speech and censorship. Does somebody who espouses crossing an intersection on red light, claims drunk-driving is ok or praises benefits of domestic violence in fostering family relationships deserve to be deprived of their right to share their views? Should we count on collective wisdom of people who ought to recognise scribble put out by a downright idiot or should be ban harmful content on the Internet?

Moreover, I grow on an idea of giving up social media entirely. Just to evade loads of rubbsih out there and to save my nerves which I can't help fraying. 

By the way, it has been nearly 12 years since my first post on the blog... 

Sunday, 17 February 2019

10 years challenge

Today, 10 years ago (is this quaint form which I heard and read several times in use by native speakers correct – in Polish dziś, dziesięć lat temu sounds at best clumsily?) I posted on the blog for the first time. Few bloggers soldier on for so long, few bloggers do not run out of determination to write. As the Internet is full of #10yearschallenge comparisons, I will not spare the effort to come up with some salient ones, yet without any photo documentation.

In February 2009 I was a 21-year-old student of Warsaw School of Economics. I moved to a different role two years later; today I work at a bank controlled by one of bigger financial groups in Europe (fortunately not repolonised), striving to keep a low profile and remain anonymous.

Despite coming of age, I have not raised my own family yet. In the meantime the family I hail from has gone less populous after deceases of my paternal grandparents.

I set up the blog slightly more than a month after a break-up with a girlfriend. Today, my tenure of being single lasts 7 months (and despite keeping up appearances, it still feels traumatic).

In 2009 and for several years later I lived with my parents, then rented two flats, finally I purchased my own one and after overcoming all tribulations (cards stacked against me several times on the remont front) I should move in to my dwelling in March.

Politics-wise… Ten years ago Poland was under the rule of Platforma Obywatelska, the president was late Lech Kaczyński. Today his twin brother keeps a tight rein on Poland and will refuse to give in. The autumnal election will be the battle for the future of Poland.

Economy-wise… 10 years ago the world was in the doldrums of the economic crisis, with stock markets hitting many years’ low and Polish currency being the weakest in 21st century. Today several developed economies are facing threats of recession, while Poland again resists economic contraction, however for different reasons than a decade ago.

Society-wise… In early 2009 I did not know the word smartphone, which revolutionised not only technology (cell phone, computer, camera, video camera, clock, dictaphone, organiser, radio, mp3 player, calculator, torch, map crammed into a tiny device) but also marked a negative change in interhuman communication – made people stare at their smartphones instead of talking to one another. Sadly…

For the sake of statistics, most often viewed posts of the decade are:

1. Black swan theory, inadvertently published exactly two days before the theoretically unimaginable disaster.

2. Freaks of the dicts – linguistic puzzles were one of my passions around that time. I believe once the remont is over I will need to take the trouble to refresh my English, whose command has definitely seen better days (using it every day at work, yet reading far too little, which has negative impact on vocabulary resources – lose it or use it! Err… oddly enough, I observe the same has happened to my Polish)

3. Oscar and lady in pink – a review of a poignant book, reminds my remont-related quandaries appear miniscule when confronted with an innocent child passing away slowly.

4. Pushed around, ridiculed, degraded – an analysis of part of current ruling party’s electorate. Moherowe berety are no longer a hard-core voters of PiS, yet my to-do-list should contain a study into who the mindset of most avid believers of the first property developer in Poland.

5. The banker’s role from bank employee’s perspective – a response to a post written by a fellow long-distance blogger whose tenure will always be nearly two years longer than mine. Michael, thank you for inspiration and for being the only one from the Polish-English blogosphere, thriving in 2009-2011 and then waning, who has not dropped off.

There was a time when I was planning to give up on blogging on the 10th anniversary. Today, despite headwinds, I am determined to keep it up, however in a while I will need to abandon the predictable formula of one post each Sunday and bring in some element of irregularity.

Sunday, 18 February 2018

Learning to live together

Spent the last two weekends roaming around Poland. Over the first weekend of February I ventured south to meet my would-be in-laws, a week ago into Mazury, to take delight in wintery landscape of the lakes area in the low season. For technical reasons, I will catch up with the photo coverage somewhat later, at best in a week J

The common denominator of the last weeks were ups and downs of living under one roof with my better half. Both of us had never had a chance to get accustomed to cohabit with a life companion under one roof, therefore such major change has been a sort of stressful for both of us. Living together is mainly about fighting some of one’s habits and accepting some of your partner’s habits, where both sides should find some areas where they decide to give in and others where they insist to hold on to what they are used to.

For many couples a common dwelling is not just a turning point that marks moving a level up, but also the end of so-called bed of roses. This regularity pertains mainly to couples whose dating prior to living together confined to going out, spending time together, but without sharing down-to-earth duties. This is unfortunately what daily life is all about and what has brought to an end the carefree periods of my friends’ relationships (they all hark back to times before finding themselves with their life companions under one roof). I need to confess the process of moving and early days in “our = rented” flat have been quite smooth and painless. We both displayed a lot of patience towards each other and held back our emotions for several occasions. The first days went without a major spat, however a few more serious, frank talks turned out to be essential to sort some things out and clear the atmosphere.

I cannot say I am disillusioned, but I am slowly coming to terms with abandoning my dreams of an ideal relationship. Every human, inevitably, has drawbacks, and while spending lots of time with somebody you care for, clashes are inexorable as well. It only takes good manners and lots of composure not to lose one’s temper and to stand up to what you believe, balancing this with a proper dose of respect to your partner and their autonomy. Whenever a crisis hits me, I recall my better half has accepted my several shortcomings and puts up with me which is not easy; this gives me more strength and patience to cope with her idiosyncrasies.

For the time being the biggest challenge are eating habits. My better half is a vegetarian, not a hard-line one, meaning she does not accuse everyone around eating meat of contributing to killing what once has been alive, but as she declares, she had never ever had a single gram of meat (nor fish) in her mouth, while I, in order not to stay hungry, need regular intake of nutrients with animal proteins and I am unwilling to give up on it. For a while it is not a big concern (though cooking a lunch we would both eat is impossible, which makes me kind of sad, in the light of my new resolution to learn to cook after entering this new stage), yet many people have advised me to think it over how it all would look when she gets pregnant and children are born. Coercing would not work (or would rather have the opposite effect), convincing somebody who is very sensitive to any conversation on the topic of their eating habits (after hearing regularly she was weird on account of refusing to eat meat at all) could also work like a red rag to a bull. I can only tell myself nutrition habits and not a fundamental part of relationship and definitely should not become a deciding factor when choosing a life companion (which oddly enough is not as obvious, after I met many people who would declare they would not accept a partner who does not eat meat “as normal humans do”). By the way it gets to the worst, while you are influenced by opinions expressed by several people around to such extent that you fail to distinguish whether your view is your own one of shaped by influencers who whisper beliefs into your ears.

Besides, worth noting this weekend marks the ninth anniversary of blogging. My activity here has been on the wane for a while, yet I have my goal of keeping up the job for one year on, to reach the milestone of round decade of roughly regular writing. Most bloggers from once buoyant English-Polish blogosphere have dropped off quite long ago, so maybe instead of griping about my malperformance I should rather take pride in relatively long record of blogging.

Sunday, 14 August 2016

But a change of heart comes slow…

Taking note of my unchanged approach to Warsaw Uprising last week has motivated me to rediscover my pieces of writing from the early years of blogging. I have run PES for over seven years; despite several crises I have soldiered on, yet the period of most intense and inspiration-driven writing lasted for somewhat more than a year. Later on, since the summer of 2010 when I took up a full-time job, posts began to appear once a week and were far less often written on the spur of the moment. Over the first year of blogging I blurted out thoughts I most needed to share with the world, then I moved on and freshness went by… Now I genuinely miss those days when youngster’s zeal was filling me with energy and inspiration do the job I do not feel up to today.

The posts I’m revisiting today were written when I was 21 or 22 (vs. 28 today). One would claim I should have grown mature; should have undergone a process which involves reshaping one’s views on several matters. When I read my very first posts (from the first three or four months of blogging) I find them childish and clumsily written. After this formative period, my style seemed to have been brushed up on.

Time to find out how many times I have changed my mind. As I set off to take this journey, I safely bet my opinions have not evolved much.

The concept of shelving the public debt still sounds like a daydream. Deep down I agree with myself, yet the more rational parts of me reminds me the government to some extent functions like an enterprise for which there is an optimum level of debt below which borrowing is a cost-effective form of financing.

In 2009 media coverage was my once source of information on pathologies in retail banking in Poland. In 2016 it looks not more different. Today I could write more about the dark side of corporate banking, yet even though I am striving to withhold my identity I resist the temptation.

Five years after graduation, I hear from youngsters I know my university continues to be on decline. In international rankings SGH has been overtaken some time ago by Kozminski Academy, marking an imminent change in the higher education system in Poland where public universities have been superior to private poor and profit-oriented ones.

Returning to 2009 I can boast about being a critic of the bygone shape of pension system in Poland before Donald Tusk’s government decided to dismantle it. With hindsight, as the private-run pension fund business has been effectively pared down, I believe every word I wrote was justified and the two-stage (2011 and 2013/2014) crackdown on the pension funds was a move in the right direction.

My (modest) proposal of a flat-rate tax with a high allowance still sound appealing, yet I would slightly modify it by introducing a higher tax rate and a higher allowance and would add child allowances to it.

The purpose of that post was actually to mock at the late president Lech Kaczyński. In November 2009 no one thought in less than five months Mr Kaczyński would tragically die. Everyone thought his term would draw to a close in a year and he would be replaced by a candidate from PO entourage. Today when I observe conduct of Mr Duda I appreciate Lech Kaczyński was not that bad, particularly in comparison to the current “head of state”.

After the decease of general Jaruzelski in 2014 discussions on legitimacy and backdrop of declaring martial law in Poland in 1981 have somewhat faded. Still I argue the state of affairs in Poland was complicated at that time and I believe we will probably forever suffer from lack facts and documents helping historians fairly assess that decision.

My essay on dire effects of loose monetary policy was written after a year or so of pursuit of such policies by major central banks. From today’s perspective I still conceptually agree with my reasoning and could write the same again, yet I need to bear in mind ultra-loose monetary policies have been run for nearly eight years and unconventional tools have also been harnessed to keep economies afloat. Oddly enough, evils listed in paragraph (1) to (4) at the bottom of the post have not materialised or have materialised only to a marginal extent which should prompt me to rethink my approach.

In early 2010 I challenged the widespread theory the financial meltdown had been caused by greed, pointing out its major cause had been lack of fear. Today the theory still sounds alluring while I need to add another, definitely not mould-breaking, note. Economic actors will do whatever they are not prohibited from to pursue their goals. Therefore regulations and their proper enforcement are vital to prevent financial crises.

My critical look at various investment theories could today be enhanced by the experience of recent years. Theory of macroeconomics has been reshaped by unprecedented phenomena witnessed in post-crisis years (negative interest years, ultra-loose monetary policies fuelling no substantial asset bubbles, scrapping the paradigm of risk-free securities, etc.)

While my financial well-being has incomparably improved since 2010 I still think interns should be remunerated for their work. My approach is shared by an increasing number of employers who erased unpaid internships from their job openings as part of incorporating CSR agendas.

The take on Poland between 1945 and 1989 appears well-balanced. I find assertions that one occupier was swapped for another in 1945 out of place. Keeping in mind Poland was dependent on Soviet Union, its political system was far from democracy and its economic order was ineffective, between 1945 and 1989 warfare was generally not conducted on the territory on Poland, buildings and factories were erected rather than torn down, an ordinary man, as long as they kept their mouth shut, had no reason to be afraid of their life and the number of victims of 44 years of oppressive system was lower than of 6 years of Nazi occupation.

In July 2010 I had a heated post-Smolensk argument with Toyah and his fellows being on the other side of the political divide line. Today we stand where we stood then, while the end-justifies-the-means remains a motto of PiS and their advocates. I have to also boast here about my impeccable anti-PiS credentials. Never, ever, since I have been seriously interested in politics, i.e. since early 2005, have I ever been enchanted by PiS. In 2005, when PO was bound to win the parliamentary election by a tiny two of three percentage points and create coalition with PiS, I was not fond of vision of this right-wing coalition taking charge of Poland. I became the PO electorate after the party put itself in opposition to PiS and its social agenda drifted left.

The picture of today’s career-minded youngsters painted in this post is a piece of utter rubbish, I confess. Most young people I know strike work-life balance well and have no problems with relationships with people although I still feel sorry so few Michał’s friends turned up at his wedding. Having more important things to do than celebrating important moments in friends’ lives with them is still a plague with my peers.

In this post I foresaw the history will be rewritten sooner or later. Just recall that sentence: On Tuesday “Gazeta Polska” published an interview with Jarosław Kaczyński in which he envisages Lech Wałęsa will soon be discredited and after his name is dragged through the mud Lech Kaczyński will become a symbol of Solidarity. This is taking place, proving how determined politician Jarosław Kaczyński is.

Today, even more than then, I find current affairs in my life more important than politics. There are moments I feel sick, yet I am growing indifferent. On Thursday I returned frazzled from a two-day business trip and did not even feel like learning what the sentence of the Constitutional Tribunal on the new law governing the institution is (content was predictable) and what implications of it would be.

Today I no longer would write rants on linguistic competencies. Despite using English every day at work and making use of all four skills (reading, writing, speaking, listening), my use of English has been narrowed down to professional topics. I wonder when my fluency in English was at its height, but I am nearly confident that moment is behind me. Keeping up excellent command of non-native language if you do not live in the country where that language is widely used is a challenge indeed.

Next post in two weeks at best, in three weeks at worst. My family from Jelenia Góra are visiting the capital so I will be looking after them next weekend, while after they go home I will need to take care of another acquaintance coming over to Warsaw. Take care!

Sunday, 15 February 2015

Six years into PES

Today, instead of a comprehensive note on one topic, a jumble of thoughts on manifold issues…

1. The coming Tuesday will mark the sixth anniversary of my first post on this blog. Having ridden out several crises I’m now back on the right track and not plan to give up on blogging, although increasing posting frequency is out of question. There’s life to live beyond the blog and despite drawing lots of pleasure from writing, blogging involves solitude and that’s the main reason why overindulgence in this hobby is something I shy away from.

2. In my first job, I developed a habit of starting a conversation with a fellow employee with a polite question, such as “how are you (doing)?”, “how’s life?”, “how are things going?”, etc. (to be precise, there are usually their Polish equivalents), rather than coming straight to the point in the first sentence. I also got accustomed to cheerful, yet more of less often insincere replies that everything is alright. At the New Factory such courteous question is an open invitation to an interlocutor to churn out a litany of woes. Such habits indicate my fellow colleagues are typical Poles, who’d feel uncomfortably if they didn’t have a cause to grumble. In Anglo-Saxon culture if you ask your acquaintance how they are doing, they would smile and respond “great”, even if their house has just burnt down, their car has been stolen and their animal has just popped off (it’s a simplification, I realise, but illustrates some general differences). The whole issue is about striking the balance between being straightforward and keeping a proper distance. If I ask someone how they are, should they assume I really care about their well-being or should they recognise I want to behave politely or break the ice, but deep down I don’t give a damn about their well-being? From my perspective it looks as follows: whenever someone who I don’t judge a friend asks me how I am, I smile and reply I’m doing fine. Quite often my assertions have little in common with truth, but I consider these white lies, since sincere answers would have negative value added. On the other hand, maybe I should appreciate people trust me and tell the home truth, instead of pretending everything is alright? All in all, I feel ill at ease, when I hear someone has a headache, someone else has not gotten enough sleep, feels sick, their car has broken down again, etc.

3. After yesterday’s bridge blaze, I’m strongly tempted to ask at what level of competence a journalist passes master. Headlines conveying information that “structure of the bridge is in fire” instantaneously brought out malicious comments from Internet users. Several commentators asked since when the Łazienkowski bridge is wooden, while they’d thought its structure was made up of steel and concrete which generally do not catch fire. A bridge in flames is generally a rare event and takes journalists aback, plus in such situation there’s a huge potential for disinformation as the story unfolds, but shouldn’t journalists learn more about the bridge’s structure and what actually burns before delivering a piece of information to its recipients? This is just one odd example, the more glaring from my perspective are those laying bare incompetence of economic journalists. In the context of expertise, should a journalist dealing with economic topic should be a graduate of economics (or finance or similar discipline of studies) with post-graduate diploma in journalism, or the other way round? Many times it seems to be the notion of economics is confined to cursory reading on a topic, without grasping its intricacies…

Sunday, 1 February 2015

What causes creativity crises?

Michael’s last week’s only seemingly dull posting prompted a jumble of comments not seen under other actually content-richer posts. Sympathetic readers rushed to gee up the crestfallen blogger, a gesture being a splendid symbol of appreciation of his efforts in writing. Hats off to Michael for exhibiting first symptoms of any crisis after nearly eight years of blogging. My track record of blogging is two years shorter and I have had to overcome crises several times.

Whenever people set up blogs, they are full of passion to run it, but usually after several months they lose heart. At first they post less frequently or notes are shorter. With time a blog no longer classifies as ‘regular’ (the generally agreed definition of ‘regularly kept blog’ is the one updated at least once a week), finally they give it up all along. Polish-English blogosphere, whose best days are apparently gone, has seen many demises of blogs, while there are ones still thriving.

So what makes people cease blogging? My first and foremost guess is running out of inspiration. It may sound like an insult, but the stuff an individual has to convey to the world is finite. It takes paying continuous attention to nuances of the surrounding world and passion to commit them to the blog. The other reason is being pre-occupied with mundane aspects of life. As time goes by, one often becomes overwhelmed by family and work duties and gets too tired or has too little time to keep up the blog. It happened to me when I took up a full-time job in July 2010. Before that I had some 20 hours a week of university classes and lots of time to write. Thereafter I found time for writing a longer note only during weekends, as in the most dreadful period of combing studies and work, in late 2010, I would leave home at 6:30 a.m. and returned home at 9:30 p.m. most days of the working week. Several times I thought of quitting, but I have always soldiered on and good form would sooner or later return and again I could draw pleasure from blogging.

Initially I also thought monotony and repetitiveness of life puts people off blogging. Having mulled it over and over again, I consider this guess wrong. At some stage of life monotony is inevitable, since it simply goes together with stability, being a part of an adult’s life. Blogging, as each and every other hobby, gives a chance to break away from monotony. Moreover, brilliant blogging will not do without eliciting the extraordinary out of the ordinary. It often takes sensitivity to small stuff most people fail to discern and it does not matter whether you take delight in a beauty of winter sunrise or dissect implications of a central bank’s policy. A smart blogger has broad horizons thanks to which they will easily find a topic to comment on…

And why have I written all the above? Shortage of time is to blame for failing to share my insight on another topic (six months into the new job), but I will try to catch up next Sunday… As my I have accustomed the readership to posting in regular intervals, always on Sundays, these brief reflections on blogging are meant to fill a gap that otherwise would have shattered my credentials ;-)

Roll on spring!

Sunday, 16 November 2014

Schadenfreude - the response

As pledged on Tuesday, a longer reply to Michael’s commentary on the recent travel expense scandal (whose echoes faded quickly)

Oh what bliss it was to watch TV news on Friday evening! Earlier that day, the story broke that three PiS deputies - Adam Hofman, the party's spokesman, Mariusz Kamiński (not to be confused with the former head of the anti-corruption agency, the CBA) and Adam Rogacki - were caught flying to Madrid on Ryanair when they had all claimed expenses for driving there and back on parliamentary business.

They would have gotten away with it, had it not been for the fact that their wives, travelling with them, were drinking alcohol that they'd brought onto the plane (something forbidden by the airline), and were remonstrating aggressively with cabin staff. The in-flight fracas was brought to the attention of the tabloid press, which led to some investigative digging. This in turn resulted in some interesting facts coming to light.

The introduction deserves a referral to a brilliant editorial by Jacek Zakowski, published in the recent issue of “Polityka”. As the author points out, the scope of the problem is much deeper than one-off incident of wheedling out public money. After all, just like Mr Zakowski, I also kind of regret those guys; no matter how nefarious they were, they could not have been denied wits. Mr Hofman, remarkable for his mordant retorts, was one the cleverest representatives of youngsters (by relevant standards politicians in their 30s) in Polish politics.

Firstly, that Hofman had done this fiddle before many times over the years - claiming mileage for driving to foreign destinations on parliamentary business, yet buying tickets on low-cost airlines. The sum of 64,000 zlotys (about £12,000) has been mentioned in media reports. The other two were also discovered to have been doing this. They'd been buying the airline tickets weeks in advance of claiming for travel expenses.

I recall testimony of 53 thousand zlotys claimed during this term of parliament, but the exact amount misappropriated is of secondary importance. What comes to the forefront is that as criminal lawyers adjudicated, such contrived scheme has all features of a punishable crime. Therefore, the up-and-coming politicians will not only end up at best on the sidelines of politics, but may also face a prospect of a few years spent behind bars.

Secondly, that once at his destination, Hofman only voted six times out of the 25 parliamentary deliberations that he had ostensibly gone to attend. He'd sign his name in the register and then slip away. So rather than sticking up for Polish taxpayers' best interests, he'd be off sightseeing, at their expense.

More than surely, scale of depravity runs well beyond one-off offence and well beyond three deputies caught red-handed. The more insightful analysis of misdemeanour of the trio indicates they had engaged in the murky scheme of claiming excessive reimbursement and not attending voting sessions without inhibitions and not even trying to conceal the deceit. As Mr Zakowski argues, Mr Hofman and the likes have been spoilt by the politics to such extent that they have grown blind not to distinguish between right and wrong. Same was the case with Mr Nowak rubbing shoulders in expensive clubs and swanking outfits worth more than an average Pole’s annual salary, or with Mr Wipler who makes a martyr of himself after picking up a night-time brawl.

All the glee and schadenfreude at the political end of this slippery trio has come at a particular inauspicious time for PiS - a week before the local and provincial elections.

To his credit, Prezes Kaczyński has terminated the trio with extreme prejudice - they've been expelled from the party earlier today. Oh what bliss it was to watch the TV news this evening! Mr Kaczyński has lost his able spokesman, who always knew how to make his boss look good, just as Poland is about to vote for its mayors and provincial parliaments.

Firstly, Prezes acted firmly, but… Back last weekend, at the trio were ousted from the party, I brought back autumn of 2006, when Prezes threw Mr Lepper out of coalition and pledged not to consort with people of sullied reputation and three weeks later let Mr Lepper in through back door, only to shield parliamentary majority. So back then I thought ‘I will believe if in half a year they’re still away from the party’ any my doubts were fuelled by the track record of Mr Hofman getting away with other acts of misconduct. In my today’s perception, the odds of the three young henchmen of Mr Kaczynski winning back his favour have diminished.

Secondly, I cannot believe Mr Kaczynski had not known what sort of arrogant, cynical, coarse lout Mr Hofman was. He had put up with all of his partisan’s smaller and bigger sins just because he had needed him. The Madrid trip scandal tipped the scales and to protect credibility and integrity of his party, Prezes had to choice but to kick out Mr Hofman and cut off his wrongdoings.

Thirdly, Mr Hofman has been swapped for Mr Mastalerek, who will now serve as spokesman of the party. In comparison to his predecessor, Mr Mastalerek is more arrogant, more cynical, more aggressive, more hatred flows from his mouth, however is far less witty than Mr Hofman. The glee at disappearance of Mr Hofman from the position of media foreman of PiS seems thus premature. One day we might be missing polite Mr Hofman who, while giving an interview, could at least summon up a feigned smile.

Fun though it may have been watching PiS squirming in extreme discomfort, it is worth putting this Polish MPs expenses scandal into perspective. Do take a minute or two to see the size and scale of the 2009 UK Parliamentary Expenses Scandal. How the mighty have fallen, eh?

I'm sure that PiS deputies were not alone in this form of misbehaviour. It is evident that there were no checks in place to make sure that the money given as an advance (zaliczka) was ever accounted for later. Having worked all my life in the private sector, this is unthinkable. When I return from a business trip, I account for all my bus tickets, taxi receipts, hotel invoices etc - or I don't see my money back. That's fair. I cannot get to grips with an expenses system that's so lax that money is just handed over on trust - and that's the end of the matter.

I’m sure they trip to Madrid is just the tip of the iceberg that has come above murky waters of politics thanks to lack of foresight of politicians’ wives. Had they not felt over-confident on board of cheap airline’s plane, the scheme would carry on, at the taxpayers’ expense. In the private sector each corporation (I assume) has a business trip policy, a document which sets out a system of checks and balances that ensures travel expenses are thriftily managed. In a sound private company no one would give approval for a business trip to Madrid for three employees, each travelling by their private car (Mr Kaminski, as his wealth declaration says, does not even possess a car), because the journey takes 27 hours of continuous driving, which means the journey would take at least four days there and back and require accommodations along the way – this is a waste of time and would mean employees would be weary performing their duties in Madrid. Alternatively, one of three guys could be damn afraid of flying, then they could all go by one car and change behind the wheel, but not by three cars! Not to mention the matter of safety of air travel… The story of driving to distant Spanish capital does not hang together at first glance so in a properly functioning company such request would be declined right away. In a sound company a manager who approves business trip expenses (in advance and upon return) can be held accountable for mismanagement, if approvals are out of line with internal policies and costs are not sought to be minimised. The New Factory in its policies has the overriding goal of ensuring the lowest total cost of travel per person, including hotel expenses, which means faster means of transport might be selected if they allow to save on accommodation. The laxity of Polish parliaments procedures is inexcusable – I bet no private company’s policies would give so much room for abuse.

And the idea of flying to a conference and not taking part is equally scandalous. If the taxpayer is paying these parliamentarians to represent them internationally - that is what they should be doing.

The arrogance and complacency shown by these three deputies should, I hope, result in none of them ever holding public office again. And a thorough investigation needs to be carried out into our parliamentarians' foreign trips - how much they cost and what they accomplished.

If a really comprehensive review of politicians’ trips was to be carried out, spanning not only legitimacy of those journeys, but also expenses reimbursed, several more interesting facts could come to the light.

It is worth copying the idea of TheyWorkForYou.com. This website gives UK voters all the details about the person who represents them in Parliament. Take a look, for example, at Stephen Pound MP, who represents my parents' constituency, Ealing North. To quote something that three different visitors from the UK have said to me over the past week, 'this is what "good" looks like'. Poland needs to replicate this. OniPracujaDlaCiebie.pl, anyone?

For the very – a plea on election day. I walked to the polling station, collected the ballot papers, looked at names, did not even touch the pen and threw the papers to the ballot box. Such is my displeasure with the local politicians that I deliberately cast a null vote. According to exit polls, PiS gets the edge of four percentage points over PO and will mark its first victory after seven elections in the row won by PO.

Sunday, 16 February 2014

Politics, Economy, Society – five years on

Having soldiered on as a blogger for half of a decade (fifth anniversary officially falls tomorrow), a tenure few can boast about accomplishing, I can dub myself an unfaltering blogger (blowing my own trumpet). Instead of posting some tedious musings on hardships and sacrifices in blogging, I decided to review all my posts tagged ‘predictions’ and ‘forecast’, to check, with hindsight, their accuracy. As the list below demonstrates, I was an active forecaster during first two years of blogging and then perked up in last quarter of 2013.

18 March 2009 – mentions forecasts of GDP growth in 1Q2009 of 0.5% y/y and encouragement to speculate against the Polish currency. In fact the Polish economy expanded by 0.8% and PLN hit its many years’ trough one month earlier.

25 March 2009 – makes a reference to BNP Paribas forecast of EUR/PLN conceivable reaching 5.40. It has not climbed to even 5.00 thereafter…

13 April 2009 – a bearish post, completely wide of the mark. My outlooks of stock market reverting to a downward trend vehemently have not fulfilled. 2009 witnessed one of the most vigorous bull markets in the history, largely driven by the scale of precedent decline (what goes down must come up) and flood of cheap money, pumped in by central banks.

24 April 2009 – IMF’s prophecies of doom have also not come to a pass, neither in 2009, nor later in 2012 or 2013… The Polish economy has not contracted in any single quarter.

4 August 2009 – again I expressed a bearish stance on the stock market, hoping for a correction allowing me buy stocks at cheaper price. In subsequent months stock market moved most upwards…

29 August 2009 – interesting to look back on the musings on shape of the 2008/09 recession in retrospect. In Europe, while the financial crisis is still not over (had the end of it been proclaimed, we would have to see different-than-zero interest rates) there was a double-dip recession, with the second bottom of W-letter touched at the end of 2012.

2 September 2009 – these bearish postings are getting boring. Yet, they reflect my key investment strategy I use until today. I wait for a local trough in corrections to buy up shares near lows and sell them a few weeks later with double-digit (in percent) profits. Predictably, the forecast was a miss.

14 October 2009 – no stock market tumble was observed, decreasing my hit ratio, but after the first early spell of winter, no snow was seen in Warsaw for 2 months.

16 December 2009 – here I was more successful – the stock market correction I waited for ensued in early February 2010, PLN generally appreciated against other currencies, Mr Bernanke was elected for his second term as CEO of the money-printing factory.

5 January 2010 – I mentioned a forecast of long and snowy winter. Generally it proved true. In January 2010 temperature dropped to –23C and in mid-February snowcover reached 53 centimetres in Warsaw. The last gasp of winter was felt around the half of March.

30 January 2010 – I estimated odds of failure of my bearish conjectures at 35%. Was much enough to prove me wrong.

5 February 2010 – post compiled on the second day of an abrupt stock market decline. Yet the guess the bull market was just a correction in a long-term downward trend was flawed.

19 April 2010 – I foresaw a crash on stock market, which in a soft version ensued three weeks later, in the wake of threat of Greek default.

6 November 2010 – makes a reference to reliability of long-term weather forecasts. Winter in 2010 was to hit early, while November 2010 was extraordinarily warm. The long-term forecast of winter 2010/11 generally proved right, except for late advent of spring.

13 November 2010 – here I mentioned what I had heard of a projections of super-crash in late 2014. It is too early to judge whether this forecast was correct, but I today I would not dismiss it out of hand.

19 January 2011 – bolstered up by strength of the Polish economy, I put too much faith in the Polish stock market. In the short-term indeed the Polish equities performed well and the blue chip WIG20 index peaked in April 2011 above 2,900 points, but then, in August 2011 plummeted and at the end of the year was well below expected 3,200 points.

2 October 2011 – another chance to confront long-term weather forecasts with reality.
- October was chilly – hit.
- November was generally cold, but not wet – partly hit,
- December was anything but frosty and dry – miss,
- January also neither very frosty, nor dry - miss,
- February instead of above-average temperature brought the longest cold snap since 1987, but its last days were balmy – miss,
- March was spring-like – hit.

1 January 2012 – contains a whole bulk of predictions for 2012:
- financial market were quite wobbly indeed – hit,
- fire in PIGS countries was put out, bondholders of Greek government debt had to take on board a loss of 53% of face value of securities they held, but Greece was not forced out of the eurozone – miss,
- winter did not stay mild and the lowest temperature was –23C rather than –16C – miss,
- in 2012 indeed Poland’s economy expanded slower than in 2011 and economic performance, measured by GDP growth, was worse than in early 2009 – hit,
- property prices kept going down – hit,
- no economic disaster struck us – miss, fortunately, albeit markets were very shaky and investors fearful in 2Q2012.

1 September 2013 – had a go at dream interpretation. In retrospect, what I thought could send misery on me, left no mark on me, I was not riding for a fall.

6 October 2013 – an extensive and informative (I dare to claim one of my best) post on prospects of the property market in Poland. 3Q2013 figures point at surge in demand and uptick in prices. I suspect we have to wait until data for 2Q2014 (to see a full year of upward trend) to judge whether last revival is just a temporary rebound, or the trend has sustainably reversed.

1 December 2013 – also to early to evaluate accuracy of the forecast. Second half of January 2014 saw a considerable correction on developed stock market, but clearly there are no reasons to speak about any crash. Needless to say, QE tapering might clamp down on the bull market that has lasted for five years.

I sadly and honestly have to admit my hit ratio over five years was low. I would justify my poor performance by psychological bias in forecasting. I envisaged what was favourable for me, not necessarily the scenario grounded in cogent economic reasoning.
I thank all the ardent readers of the blog for their endurance and patience. Take care!