Should I be proud?

My school has announced on its website two professors from Warsaw School of Economics had been appointed as members of Monetary Policy Council. My university employs a lot of outstanding experts in monetary policy, like professor Krzysztof Rybiński, but for no apparent reason the current president decided to pick some of his buddies and once again set personal relationships above competencies. The previous president also for no apparent reasons designated renowned specialists – Andrzej Sławiński, Andrzej Wojtyna and Dariusz Filar.

Some time ago I evaluated competencies of Zyta Gilowska, there’s nothing I can add about her. None of fellow students with whom I discussed the nomination of Mr Glapiński and we our views simply square – he lacks knowledge, but is a close friend of Mr Kaczyński and no one else would have appointed him. He will have to learn a lot.

When it comes to Mr Kaźmierczak, the matter is a bit more complex. His field of academic research overlaps the issues of monetary policy, but there’s one significant fact about him that might have been seen as a merit by Mr Kaczyński. The new member of monetary authorities has never been a reputable figure among economists. His opinions are not appreciated, few people heard about him. He publishes in Gnash Dziennik, a newspaper of Father Rydzyk’s empire. I may be biased against him, as his dovish views are totally dissimilar to mine. He doesn’t see inflation above target as a danger for economy, it’s even conducive to economic growth as he says.

Inflation, contrary to what he advocates has to be handled carefully. It hazardously easily spirals out of control. As soon as it gets noticeable for customers, their inflationary expectations rise, so they hold out for pay rises and then when they get it, the economy is on the verge of a slippery slope.

In Poland a relatively tight monetary policy prior to the crisis helped our country avert a financial meltdown. Monetary authorities, mostly Mr Balcerowicz, who was a governor of central bank at the time were harshly criticised for the policy they had pursued. Unlike some other countries.

As professor John B. Taylor (the author of famous Taylor rule) points out in his latest interview for “Polityka”, one of the main causes of the financial crisis were too low interest rates. He also blames central banks and government for inapposite responses and openly condemns monetary policy run by Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke. This short interview might be helpful in understanding the origins and mechanics of what has been called the worst recession since the Great Depression.

My idol for today

All my Polish readers should click here and be all ears for nineteen minutes. Listen, hang on every word this guy says and chew it over – this is what an independent real estate market analyst says. Clear, well-argued, backed by calculations reasoning, something I yearn for and appreciate.

This is an inconvenient truth for all estate agents and developers and banks, who try to dupe buyers and persuade them that flats are cheap these days. Humbug! We shouldn’t succumb to their pressure. Real estate prices are exorbitant, very often unaffordable. We shouldn’t pay over the odds and become slaves of mortgages for three decades! Someone who does it, as Mr Macierzyński points out, is financially illiterate. Flats will be cheaper!

Recently bought

After months of getting round I finally went to the bookshop, looked out for a thick navy volume and bought it.


My wonderful copy knocked me back over 160 zlotys (after combining numerous discounts) – PWN Oxford Polish-English dictionary is indeed a bit pricey, but I consider it the best dictionary available on the market and the money spent on it as a profitable investment. Probably no other dictionary has been worked out so well, other publications don’t cover as many idioms, colloquial words and phrases. The work at least doesn’t omit the most problematic phrases (some time ago I coined a new definition of a dictionary – “a book which translates the obvious words, but somehow leaves out those very ones you don’t know”) and offers thousands of examples of usage of different words in different contexts. It’s not ideal of course – still it doesn’t offer a good translation of the word dziadostwo (much depends on how you understand the original word in Polish – what in my family is called dziadostwo doesn’t square much with the definition given by Słownik Języka Polskiego), moreover, it omits a Polish idiom przechodzić ludzkie pojęcie, what could be translated as “pass all beliefs”! As a would-be professional I wouldn’t carelessly rely on its translations of financial or economic terms.

The second item arrived today by traditional mail. I have to say I’m surprised with the quality of postal services – the book was delivered within four working days (sent by economical registered letter) and it wasn’t soaked up as many other letters had I received.


Tip of the Week by Jacek Koba is a record of the author’s advice given to his colleagues at Ernst&Young, where he used to work as a proof-reader. After having a flick through it I consider it a must for Poles who (will) often draw up writings in the corporate setting. Why is it worth buying? It lists errors often made by Polish writers, touches upon the words Poles tend to have problems with and gives advice on how to write in a plain and comprehensible English. The book is available at the auctions put up by this allegro user – a representative of Altravox publishing office. It cost me only 17,99 zł, which I find dirt cheap, not to mention delivery is free of charge. So, my dear schoolmates, log in to your allegro accounts and keep it under your desk when you’ll be pursuing your careers in consultancy firms…

Wait it out and join the game!

I’m temporarily sick of politics so I’m making do with reading the opinions on the outbreak of WW2 on other EN-language blogs, I’d rather focus on what I’ve been awaiting since April. It seems it has just began and is going to grow apace. The abrupt rally of stock indices since late February has been put on hold for a while. Having risen by around eighty per cent within just six months, share prices need to do a U-turn to return to the levels set out by macroeconomic conditions.

It doesn’t really matter now, whether the recession is over or if we are going to be hit by a second wave (hopefully not). It’s time for a typical correction – the market’s reaction to the unreasonable surge we witnessed. A month ago polls conducted among investors from the States showed the predominance of bulls, today moods are getting downbeat and soon bears might even outnumber bulls. History would prove drop-offs are much more likely in the autumnal months. I’m not in favour of trying to predict future on the basis of past figures, but all I see implies the comeback of pessimism to the markets.

If the correction is inevitable, the open question is only its scale. The readers of Bankier.pl are as always into those euphoric, claiming “two or three days of sale and we’ll be heading northwards” or the ones asserting the new trough will be reached. This time the truth might lie somewhere in between – the correction will wipe out about a half of the current bull market (thus I assume the last upsurge was a beginning of a new trend, not a long correction of a downward wave), so my investment recommendation* is to wait until WIG 20 index drops to around 1700 – 1800 points and enter the game. The tide will turn at around this level and venture should fetch a decent profit

* DISCLAIMER – don’t take anything for granted, you should rely on your common sense (don’t forget about intuition) – there are as many opinions as analysts…