Trump's sanity?

I recent days it's not just US president's sanity being called into question, it's his insanity looming unquestionable.

Early this year he pulled off a 3-day operation of hunting down Venezuela's dictator and overthrowing his regime (all in the name of seizing the local oil deposits, not to spread democracy).

The war in Iran, sparked at the end of February, to some extent resembles (in military, not moral dimension) Russia's invasion into Ukraine. The USA's attempt to knock down the Iranian regime could drag on for a few years, circumstances permitting. Donald Trump has most likely not realised so far he messed with a hornet’s nest. Iranian people, in spite of being suppressed by a backward regime for 47 years, will not stand down. Trump might (provided he has not fallen back altogether) attempt to leave no stone unturned, burn the entire Iran to the ground, but the Persians will not succumb until they bleed out. At death knell they would fire the nuclear missiles towards their enemies just to go down in history as invincible.

Over the last weeks those of you keeping track of international politics have wondered what would happen the next day and whether Trump would keep his (hollow) promises of destroying Iran's infrastructure or bringing the country's history to a wicked end. The threat of nuclear war has never seemed so close in my lifetime. Now for a while it is gone.

The major upshot of the warfare is the fuel crisis, whose intensity remains uncertain. It is not just the blockade of the Ormuz strait that sent oil price skyrocketing. Drilling and refining capacities have been destroyed and given the global retreat from fossil fuels, it may make no economic sense to rebuild them. More expensive crude oil and natural gas are likely to keep us company for months, thus accelerating embracing green energy, while I won't hazard any guess if oil deficits would lead to fuel rationing and called off passenger flights.

Popularity of the US president has plummeted recently. His decisions do not only taint the reputation of USA as a cradle of modern democracy, but brutally hit wallets of ordinary citizens.

Democrats have been licking wounds after the awful defeat in 2024 elections, but given today's anti-Trump sentiment they are bound to win the mid-term elections in November 2026. They don’t owe it to getting their act together, but benefit from being labelled as the only opposition to Trump. I will watch the story unfold and keep looking forward to impeachment procedure in 2027.

Before it happens, I am keeping fingers crossed for Hungary, hoping today the country will democratically set itself free of the pro-russian authoritarian oligarchy. Under the rule of Victor Orban and his cronies Hungary became the poorest economy in the EU, with democratic institutions being a façade of what they ought to be. Hope the bleak period in Hungary’s history is drawing to a close.

In the eve of narcissistic psychopath being sworn in

Usually when a populist gets hold of power, their rein turns out to be less scary than predicted. I put this mellowing out down to their strategy of flattering voters with hollow promises and safety valves embedded in democratic systems (unless populists cling to power for years and dismantle civilised institutions as Mr Orban and his cronies have done in Germany). Same might be the case with Donald Trump and my fear of him taking over is combined with some hopes he does screw it up worldwide all along.

In his campaign he promised to proscribe a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine within 24 hours. Currently his advisors claim a realistic time horizon to bring the war to a halt is between 100 days and 6 months. The longer it takes, the better. Each day of warfare depletes Russia's resources and buys Europe time to prepare for a widespread aggression towards NATO. Nevertheless, Mr Trump will insist on impacting the course of the conflict as thus he will prove his might and powerfulness.

USA's leading role in NATO as a guarantor of western Europe's stability and safety is in question. Europe will be to some extent left to its own devices. Maybe Mr Trump's presidency will be a wake-up call for Europe to get its act together, as simple matters such as shifting to daylight saving time for the entire year are beyond its bureaucrats' decision-making capacity.

Mr Trump's considerations of taking over Canada or having designs on Greenland are so far the biggest red flags. Wladimir Putin, in a television appaerance just before its army invaded Ukraine, denied that Ukraine's right to exist. I believe the redneck president will confine to talking his head off and any conquest of non-US territories will be foiled by international treaties.

The crony of Mr Trump I currently fear more is Elon Musk. Much more brazen and having the grip over the fourth estate, looms as a bigger peril than the elderly redneck. Both guys are psychopathic personalities with lust for power, so I sincerely hope they fall out before long. Even if this happens, separately they will remain harmful.

The paragraph above reminds me of my recent fourth anniversary of joining Twitter, then not controlled by Mr Musk. I use it less frequently, rarely contribute, but have not deleted my account there just to have access to contents smart people still share there. Or should I vote with my legs and give it up altogether, to undermine Musk's empire of evil possibly much?

Where is the war heading?

Two events in world politics from November have passed so far unnoticed on PES. I did not bother to comment on the victory of the narcistic redneck in the US presidential election. Then came the scheduled event, to my positive surprise, echoing in the media – 19 November 2024 was the 1,000th day of the invasion to Ukraine. Those forgetful are now reminded the operation was planned to last three days and end up in installing a puppet government in Kyiv.

Nearly three years after those days Russia controls roughly 20% of the Ukraine’s territory and is slowly progressing. Faced with an imminent power handover, the democratic administration in the US have resolved to allow Ukraine to hit military targets in Russia with weapons delivered by them. This seemed a game changer, but in fact solidifies a stall in the conflict.

Time before the redneck and his cronies takes over is running out. He intends to freeze the warfare, plausibly by leaving territories held by occupiers within their borders. For Russia it means some areas in the Kursk region would stay under Ukraine’s control. If such scenario is the most likely, Ukraine should strive to take over an even bigger territory of Russia, as this decreases odds of Russians agreeing on warfare freezing.

Shortly commenting on the Trump’s victory – I hope once he is sworn in, he will be less unpredictable than he appeared in the campaign and he will be surrounded by wise advisors holding back his silly conceptions. Besides, Europe must act now, as if it was left to its own devices, hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst.

Lying in bed, rather than on my way to LA

Last week I promised not to post for a month, as today I was supposed to be on my way to the USA West Coast. Health-related circumstances have coerced me to defer those plans. The problems with lumbar spine are not a novelty to me, yet for several months I could forgot about them altogether. I looked after it, had a lot of recreational exercise outdoors, took physiotherapy classes in winter. If the spine was under a strain of a carrying heavy stuff or assembling pieces of furniture, I did it all wisely and did not feel any discomfort.

Maybe I took it for granted that the spine would pay me back with a painless service. After those carefree months I simply shrugged off the first incidences of pain, hoping they would go as quickly as they came. There was a day in late August when it ached intensely, yet then it eased off.

The week starting on 2 September 2024 was dramatic at work. I sat for much longer than 8 hours, stressed-out and most of the time in a bizarre position, to keep the back of my thigh away from a chair, after my skin had been literally sliced by a thin and sharp leash kept by a thoughtless dog owner. Day by day the pain was getting worse, but I carried on ignoring it, until Friday, 6 September, when it became unbearable.

On 7 September I went to a GP. She prescribed me some painkillers and ordered to lie down in a “chair” position. I followed her recommendations for two days, yet without any signs of being on the mend. Conversely, the pain was only more acute.

On Monday, 9 September, I went (by underground, since getting into any passenger car was out of reach) to a neurologist and had an X-ray examination done. He prescribed me another set of painkillers, since the core medicine from the previous set could cause an adverse reaction with antidepressants I take. By the evening, things were getting only worse. After sunset I could move my arms, legs and head. Except for this, I was actually bed-ridden – getting out of bed would have involved too much pain. The memory of being walked by my girlfriend to the toilet and holding on to walls and doors will not be erased for a long time.

On Tuesday, 10 September, my father drove me to a physiotherapist for a manual therapy session. Actually the benefit of the very massage (as delicate as it could have been) was quite possibly thwarted by the journey by car (getting out of took me a minute each time).

On Wednesday, 11 September I snapped a last minute appointment to an orthopaedist. The only benefit of it was an emergency referral for an MRI.

The next two days I strived to avoid any strain, though on Friday I went for a 30-minute walk, since staying in bed most of the time had gotten wearisome. I was fit enough to walk for a while without a major ache, yet sitting was still out of reach. Actually I could spend my time lying or walking, as even standing involved a discomfort.

Yesterday I had my MRI done, I wait to be it described and keep looking out for a superb doctor, who would tell me what the dos and don’ts for the coming weeks are and who will oversee my path to recovery.

Lesson learnt from this incidence hitting just ahead of grand holidays – buy insurance and always mark if you have an underlying illness. I had not done it, but luckily managed to cut financial losses. All accommodations and car rental reservation could be cancelled free of charge, while the flights with PLL LOT, despite being in the lowest tariff, could be rescheduled for mere EUR 120. The trip is now scheduled to commence on 24 April 2025 which gives me plenty of time to recover, which is a matter of weeks rather than days.

A progress report to be published in a week.

Donald Trump

Makes no sense coming up with a more ambitious title to this post. The US president-elect’s name stands for the sound of the world diving helplessly into the unknown.

After Mr Trump’s victory, headlines were hit by news of polls buggering it up and senseless questions “how come?”. Against what you are still told and regardless of slip-ups of both candidates, Mrs Clinton was bound to lose that battle, resulting in yet another one in a string of shifts in power aimed at capsizing the well-established, predictable, though at times seized-up machinery of liberal democracy.

I wrote on facebook on Wednesday it was the second such bad day this year (the first one fell on 24 June 2016, when Brexit referendum results were announced). The magnitude of US presidential election binding result, impacting indirectly all countries in the world, is far larger than of the Brexit referendum, which formally has been just an indicator of Brits’ opinions (now to be handled by the parliament somehow).

Fearful of implications of Mr Trump taking office? No worries. The upside of the situation is the habitual track record of various populists going back on their promises. Mr Trump’s silly waffle was meant to win him voters – words he was whispering to disgruntled electorate were music to their ears. In his wildest declarations he pledged to bring about a change deeper than the one Mr Obama had pursued. Before he is sworn in on 20 January 2017 he will get insight into intricacies of US politics and I believe the reality check will tone him down (in terms of knowing the ropes of politics he is incompetent, but has his head screwed in well enough not to spoil it all the way).

Having written that, I still believe Mrs Clinton, though definitely imperfect, was a far better choice for the United States and for the whole civilised world.

So what prompted the nation which has held foundations of democracy so dear to elect Mr Trump? He was the first prominent politician to have rejected political correctness; thus several voters perceived him as frank and straightforward. He was not a part of (discredited in eyes of many) political elite and scorned at murky establishment, a clique of spongers living off politics and pooling wool over electorate’s eyes for decades. He has struck a chord with millions of impoverished, aggrieved voters, victims of de-industrialisation, who indeed felt America was in ruins and needed to be lifted from misery.

“CHANGE” was the buzz word or Mr Obama’s campaign and a change is what Americans have longed for. Each change involves costs and benefits one should analyse before one opts for or against it. Majority of voters have chosen a soft change, or the lesser of two evils, however since the vote is indirect and in most states Mr Trump received the most votes, he was selected to become the successor of Mr Obama.

I do respect the choice made by US citizens who have exercised their right to vote and the election result, being the aftermath of electoral college votes mechanism in place. I am holding back from forejudging the presidency of Mr Trump. Before I revisit the topic, I am waiting for the story to unfold. The first public appearances of Mr Trump fill with hope he is not a lunatic and his policies will fortunately differ from the visions he outlined during the campaign.

Poised for failure?

The question above pertains to Donald Trump’s candidacy in the oncoming US presidential election. Despite recent serious slip-ups which arguably could disqualify him straight away, he is not yet bound to lose it all.

According to a popular (don’t know to how extent it is true) belief, a president of the United States should boast of set if traits which pre-destine them to take this office. To cut the long story short, the president should be successful in all areas of life: should have a first spouse (to whom they are faithful) and children, boast about brilliant professional / academic / political career, be an exemplary citizen (e.g. not evade taxation, donate money to charities), crystal-clear in terms of honesty (no outstanding criminal charges / accusations), plus they should display impeccable manners and class.

Even if the description above is just a stereotype, it would not hurt if the bar for the president of the United States was raised that high. Bearing in mind the above, they very nomination of Donald Trump as Republican Party’s candidate has been mind-boggling. The very list of his numerous wrong-doings (BTW, an excellent summary containg what I miss in Polish journalism, i.e. citing sources substantiating each paragraph, hats down to the author):

- allegations of several attempts of sexual harassment,

- tax evasion,

- mistreating his wives, cheating on them,

- four bankruptcies of casinos he controlled,

- various cases of misconduct in running real estate business (dealing with tenants),

- mistreating his employees, including failing to pay contractors and workers, or hiring migrants illegally,

- running shady businesses, including a foundation, an university and an institute, all Trump-named,

is long enough to put a bunch of ordinary people into prisons, yet despite unprecedented slew of controversies around his name, the republicans decided he would run for presidency.

The recordings disclosed over a week ago, caused more uproar, but have not been a nail to his coffin. I would safety bet as the tapes of Mr Trump bragging about seducing married women and telling technical details on how he was making a pass on them could win some voters.

There will always be voters who would expect someone akin to them to hold such office. Mr Trump did what several males do when females are not around, proved he is a regular guy, not a spick-and-span well-mannered politician, but an ordinary chap from the neighbourhood, some who despite his richness has common ground with the underclass.

There is a theory that a statesman should adhere to higher moral standards than an ordinary citizen. The concept holds water in general, but conduct which is acceptable cannot be unambiguously defined. I am a straightforward man and never take umbrage when public figures commit the same sins as I do in their private time. I swear like a trooper (as many educated people in this Poland), even when there is no reason to use foul language. Swear words have become for me a part of communication with all people who have developed the same despicable habit, especially in the workplace (unfortunately foul language is tolerated there by everyone and hence thrives). I should be ashamed of it, yet if I broach this topic, I prefer to admit it that to pretend my civility is beyond reproach. Besides, I might not disapprove of eavesdropped politicians who swear in private conversations; by stooping so low, I have denied myself that right. The locker-room talks also do not shock me, since though I have never talked about any particular woman in such vulgar way, I am familiar with that style of language, but use it rather in self-deprecatory context (e.g. asked my a mate if I am fine, instead of straightforwardly confessing it could be better I tell him that “nobody wants to do me a blow-job”).

What might really drag down Mr Trump’s chances in the race of presidency was his declaration in the last debate he would not accept the victory of Mrs Clinton and would look into it fairness of the election procedure. By undercutting the foundations of democracy, Mr Trump moved closer to Mr Kaczynski who also implied several times elections won by PO or its nominees had been rigged.

Incidentally, Mr Kaczynski, as a bachelor, having no children, having not accumulated any property over more than 40 years of adult life, never taking private travels abroad as an adult, not having a driving license and not fending for himself over most of his adult life, also does not fit the profile of a statesman, yet for totally different reasons than Mr Trump.

The very existence of Donald Trump is not a problem, as there are many freaks roaming around our planet. His very willingness to run for presidency, if he can afford it, is not a problem as well. The issue is that for some reason he earned the nomination of the Republican Party and the biggest issue and a puzzle is why people want to vote for him. We need to bear in mind he does not tread the path of PiS in Poland and does not pamper the poorest with benefits raising their standard of living and does not resort to the most blatant economic populism for masses. The possible answers lean towards ideological reasons: Mr Trump wants to reinstate law and order, lift America from its knees, revise relationships with other countries, wants to make the United States an empire again, is a backbone of conservatism, finally some voters would sooner kiss their own arse than vote for a democrat.

Not being actually fond of Mrs Clinton, I keep fingers crossed for her victory on 8 November, thus I am keeping fingers crossed for well-being of the whole civilised world.

Worries - shelved

It's been a sort of a hectic weekend, hence a very short note. My dear few avid readers - accept my apologies.

The political event of the week in Poland was a debacle of referendum in Warsaw. The turnout of 25.66%, vs. roughly 29% required to deem the voting valid, was too low to oust Mrs Gronkiewicz Waltz from her stool in the town hall. A month before the referendum at least 40% of Warsaw's inhabitants would avow to take part in a vote (and depose the mayor). In my opinion all the efforts of the civic movement aimed at removing the haughty mayor were thwarted, when the referendum campaign was dominated by politicians trying to capitalise on Warsaw's inhabitants disgruntlement. Warsaw remains a stronghold of PO, but those people would easily give up on supporting the party, if only they were faced with a decent alternative. When Mr Kaczynski stepped in, the lesser of two evils was chosen. PiS officially treats the referendum as its success, however I dare to argue had it been engaging so actively in the anti-mayoral campaign, the turnout would have been higher. Lots of people must have got angry seeing the civic initiative turning into political squabble. The proper course of action would have been for the politicians to launch a campaign after the new election were called, or to run a campaign in more constructive way - all what the critics of the mayor would say was "Mrs Gronkiewicz Waltz is a bad mayor, let's oust her", no proposal beyond the moment she loses her position, no counter-proposals on how to sort out what has been done wrong by her. To recap - pure flavour of Polish politics with little policies.

The global political event of the week was the debt ceiling in the United States. As illustrated to the right, the easier option has been chosen - now there is more room to pump in the shit. Currently creditworthiness of the United States cannot be evaluated in terms of its capacity to repay its debt, this may only be considered as ability to roll it over. Yet, this cannot be done until the end of the world. The only way the US government can get rid of its huge debt is... inflation, which would reduce the real value of liabilities, thus through inflation tax the US government would dupe its creditors and its own citizens - the middle class, except for those heavily indebted, who usually benefit from high inflation. The new Fed governor, extremely dovish, would most probably see to it.