War knocking at our doors?

The full-scale war in Ukraine has gone on for 4 years 7 months, longer than anyone would predict and despite some tepid peace talks under way and intermittent ceasefires, the end thereof does not even loom on the horizon. The warfare is getting more cruel, on both sides, with Kiev being repeatedly hit by missiles, drones and rockets reaching targets in least (so far) affected western parts of the country. On the other hand for several months Ukraine has destroyed a large part of Russia's oil refining capacities, military plants and logistics infrastructure. Civilian buildings were occasionally struck too. Serves them right! The oncoming winter is likely to be an opportunity window to the tsar to bring the Ukraine to its knees, if Ukrainian energy and heating infrastructure are wiped off. This has already nearly happened last winter, but it does not mean Ukrainian cities will be able to withstand it infinitely.

Over the recent weeks one could hear warnings of NATO being put to the test. Russia will not hazard a full-scale war, but a limited intrusion, drone attacks, terrorist raids or false-flag operations are likely. Baltic countries are at most risk and they signal far-reaching preparations for some form of military aggression. The rhetorics "we know what you're into" foils Russia's plans and serves as a deterrent. But if Putin is wholeheartedly determined to mess with NATO, he will.

In Poland we won't see Russian tanks on the streets nor airplanes in the sky. But Russian drones hitting logistics hubs through which military equipment to Ukraine is transported, energy infrastructure or paralysing airports are not beyond imagination. So conceivable appears an attempt to hit two Warsaw's heating plants in the middle of a frosty winter.

The progress in military technology, i.e. the widespread use of drones has shot up and countries which do not continuously develop their technologies and don't test them on a battlefield, are doomed to lag behind. During peace, there is no chance to catch up with countries involved in warfare. For such reason I believe Poland and other NATO countries are not adequately prepared for a drone attack. If hundreds of drones are sent over Poland, I don't believe all of them will be intercepted or shot down, regardless of resources harnessed and costs borne.

Will NATO react if its territory is attacked? Stance of the USA remains a big question mark (although last week they deployed additional soldiers in Baltic countries). This month also the Slovak prime minister ruled out participation of his country's army in a plausible defence operation. Russia aims to render the NATO article 5 void, hence if Baltic countries are attacked, I am certain the Polish army should meet its obligations and take part in fending off the invader.

Gone are the times of peace. To boost odds of living in peace, we must get ready for a war and pay for it. Residents of south-eastern Poland are woken up by air raid sirens on most days. This sadly means one day when things get really nasty, they might shrug it off. One day we might face a blackout. One day we might run into a basement to find shelter. One day the Warsaw underground trains (I ride one while writing this) might become a target of terrorists. We live in turbulent times and need to get on with this.

A lunatic behind the wheel

In the eve of the third anniversary of the invasion to Ukraine, my hopes Donald Trump would act reasonably are dashed. The warfare, marked with attrition on both sides, might within a few months come to an end. Sadly, the peace agreement’s shape might be far from expectations of the civilised world.

The idiocy the US president displays on every step does not cease to amaze, or rather disturb me. How dumb must a man be to say he trusts the russian dictator? How short-sighted must a man be not to predict a ceasefire will buy time to putin’s war machine to build capacity for a broader campaign against NATO? How narcistic must a man be to want to bring the war to an end at any price, just to prove his powerfulness? How brazen must a man be to claim Ukraine has sparked off that war and could have finished it and accuse it of breaching a never nailed down deal?

In his transactional politics, Ukraine has a role of an object, not as a subject, it best summarises endeavours to reach a peace agreement without the invaded country being involved. The US president and his cronies are not interested in protecting NATO or in shielding foundations of the civilised world, such as a country’s right to stand up for its independence and integrity. This guy craves for rights to dig up rare resources beneath the Ukrainian soil. At the end of the day, such approach is still lesser evil than coercing Ukraine to give away occupied areas to russia, as it involves defending territories where rare metals are deposited against the russian army.

Europe in these circumstances appears powerless and sluggish. The EU leaders have belatedly realised they have made a mistake by relying on the behind-the-ocean ally as a guarantor of stability in Europe. Most countries in our region have run out of weapons shipped to Ukraine, have not rebuild their military capacities and now stick to expressing their deep concerns about how the peace is to be restored. The new US administration, no matter how critical we might be towards its policies, does not lack decisiveness and determination to resolve this conflict. Voters around the world are somewhat sick of indecisiveness and powerlessness politicians display; in several countries we see the outcomes of such shift.

Between us – Ukraine has still way to go before it becomes a mature democracy, especially in terms of cracking down on corruption and rule of oligarchs. From the perspective of Poland it needs to get to grips with its history (Wolyn genocide during WW2) But at the moment is is above all a country fighting for its independence and territories belonging to it based on international treaties. For the last 3 years Ukraine kept the russian army away from NATO’s borders. Biden’s administration’s tactics was to wear russia down and deplete its resources sustainably, so that it emerges frail after the war ends. Trump’s policies will help Russia to grow stronger in long term.

If prominent politicians call Ukraine’s president a dictator or claim aid from the Western world was partly seized by oligarchs, they speak one voice with the tsar of russia. This tsar, or his successors, will not stick to any peace agreements in a horizon of more than 3 years. The war will be suspended to let russia rebuild its military power and launch another “special operation” without making mistakes leading to a prolonged warfare in Ukraine.

As an economist I wonder how the imminent suspension of warfare impacts the Polish economy. Along with other analysts, I remain uncertain of impact on the stock market, labour market and housing market. Much depends on migration – depending on the shape of peace agreement, Ukrainians might want to return to their homeland, but a new wave might flee the country. Also, we might sadly expect a normalisation of trade relations with Russia, which is already priced in by the rallying stock market in Warsaw (I slowly begin to dispose of stock-market investment fund units purchased in late 2022 and early 2023).

Belgorod engulfed in warfare

Since the beginning of the russian invasion to Ukraine, the attacked country wages a defensive war. In simple words, it has fought in its own territory (defined as internationally recognised borders in place until early 20214), but has not attacked the enemy’s land. Such approach gave a clear picture who had trespassed whose territory, but at some stage of war turned out to be insufficient to tip the scales towards the one we keep our fingers crossed for.

In the past days, with unhidden delight, I have kept track of destruction wrecked to the empire of evil. Each demolition of an oil refinery is a proper blow to the russian economy. Decreased supplies of fuels dent the country’s revenues (less money on armaments), impair transport as well as contribute to shortages of energy, which are detrimental to the military factories. Every day I watch the shelling of the city of Belgorod located close the Ukrainian border. This area of russia is currently war-ridden and residents who have not decided to flee are experiencing a bit of what the tormented Ukraine has endured for over the last 2 years.

Currently also the civilian infrastructure in russia is being destroyed, civilians in putin’s land are wounded and killed. Call me a scoundrel, but I could not care less. That accursed nation has to pay the price for all the evil its president is doing. Tactically, the strategy of attacking the invader’s area prompts the russian army to retreat to guard its lands, giving some relief from warfare to Ukraine. Such strategy also buys time and defers the probably inevitable confrontation between NATO and russia.

Speaking of the imminent war, I still believe with proper deterrents in place, russia might hold back from attacking any NATO country. But to make it happen, NATO countries need to get their act together to rebuild their military power (depleted by aids to Ukraine) and demonstrate their solidarity.

If the war indeed breaks out, the question is about targets and scale of warfare. Experts claim the enemy will still lack potential to trespass far and wide into NATO territories, but targeted shelling is perfectly conceivable. To paralyse life in large areas, russia only needs to destroy key elements of military and civilian infrastructure. Our homes might not be destroyed, but we might need to get used to conditions in which residents of Kiev had to live for several months, i.e. electricity outages, lost Internet connections, lack of warm water or heating.

Good times are not ahead. Even if the war fortunately does not break out, we as a mankind will need to make sacrifices to prevent the planet from becoming a hell due to global warming.

Two years past the invasion

2 years and 1 days past the day the russian army launched a full-scale invasion into Ukraine, I am looking back at my coverage of those days. For some time I have not been an ardent blogger, but I carry on to save my thoughts for posterity and for myself. Those first days of war were a shock. Until recently majority of us got accustomed to the cruelty behind Poland's eastern border, especially since for months fights on the front were not moving on.

Currently there are more and more reports on scales tipped towards the invaders and military intelligence notes telling despite its failure in the Ukraine, Russia is slowly preparing for a war against NATO, which might break out in 3 to 5 years.

Politicians from countries neighbouring on russia began to speak openly about the eventuality of a war. Those at the biggest peril are:
- Sweden (not a NATO member, the country has not experienced war since 1815),
- Finland (a NATO member since April 2023, badly tainted by Soviets during WW2, having the longest border strip with russia in Europe),
- Norway (remember it borders russia at the northern edge of the continent),
- Baltic countries (used to be a part of the soviet empire for half a century, thus being a natural target),
- Poland (russia's everlasting enemy as a matter of principle) and
- Moldova (a god-forsaken land between Ukraine and Romania).

Preparations for the war should move from a verbal realm into actions, especially military training and manufacturing. It needs to be stressed Europe has supported Ukraine with its own military resources, but over that time effort to rebuild Europe's depleted defence capacity have not been taken. Several countries have run out of their stocks of ammunition or military vehicles, thus NATO's ability to ward off an attack is impaired. Even if the armaments serve a purpose of a deterrent, they are worthwhile (a decade ago I would argue military spending is a waste of public money). Nevertheless the united Europe seems too sluggish. For many years EU countries have not managed too agree on ceasing to move clocks back and forth and switching to daylight saving time, so will they be able to get their act together, especially if for Western Europe the russian soldiers are thousands kilometres away.

Putin's army did not conquer Ukraine, but incurred severe losses in the battlefields. Human-wise, its resources are limited, yet sending millions of conscripts to die in a warfare has never been a problem to the uncivilised empire. Resourse-wise, military manufacturings is running at full blast and there are signs the russian economy has been switched into the military mode. Economic sanctions imposed on russia are bypassed (through countries such as Armenia or Kazakhstan), despite being cut off from modern technologies, russia is not on its knees.

Whatever fate Ukraine meets, Europe has to support it to help the evil invader bleed out there. There era of peace in Europe might soon be over, but let's buy time to defer the moments it goes down in history.

Currently the biggest threat lies in the USA, where the presidential election is due in less than 9 months. If the narcistic, unpredictable psychopat wins, Europe will have reasons to quake. NATO's power largely hinges upon the defence power its overseas ally.

The picture to the right is the cover most recent issue of "Wprost" weekly. Keeping fingers crossed for its poor predictive power, ley ot be contrary to its cartoonist's illustratory skills.

Like tomorrow doesn’t exist…

Was curious to hear yesterday in the radio about an article in Gazeta Wyborcza by its correspondent to Riga, capital of Latvia. The piece of writing mentioned in the press review turned out to be a just short story with quite astounding purport.

To sum up, as the author claims, Riga, this year enjoying the status of the European Capital of Culture. One event follows another, the carnival goes on, the Latvians live it up and make the most of the life, before a disaster aborts the festival. Inhabitants of Riga are deeply convinced Putin’s fifth column waits round the corner, ready to intrude into Latvia, as they invaded the Ukraine. The journalist argues an equation mark between Latvia and Ukraine is illegitimate since Latvia, unlike Ukraine, is a member of the EU and NATO and Putin would not dare to attack the military alliance because deep down he and his administration realise they would be defeated by united armies of NATO. Such arguments do not persuade the Latvian interlocutors who point out the Russian president is immensely unpredictable and ingenious and Russians as a rule do not let up.

Whenever hearing about Russian minorities in Baltic countries when the Russian parliament enacted a law entitling the Russian authorities to take every step to defend rights of mongered Russian minorities beyond the borders of Russia, contingency of Russian army stepping in to Latvia seemed incongruent. I had in mind the same argument – Putin would not dare to attack NATO, as it would mean a suicide for him. A few months later, after the Malaysian civil airplane was shot down and given how situation in Eastern Ukraine unfolded, I have changed my mind. Putin might come to a point when, after losing the battle for Ukraine and after suffering other prestigious defeats, he might have nothing to lose. In such situation, i.e. when you are bound to lose everything when you give up but if you take action you may either also lose everything or win something back, placing a dicey bet is economically justified.

The article draws a parallel between what goes on in Latvia and the summer of 1939 in Poland. Three quarters of century after the outbreak of WWII I wonder how it felt like in Poland in August 1939. The war was in the offing, its onset was just a matter of time. There was something in the air, probably the gut feeling something was inexorably about to end soon. Would anyone share the memories of their parents or grandparents?

Let’s figure out how people behave when they realise the end of something draws near and is inescapable. As the history proves they try to relish on every moment, cherish the life and quite frequently indulge in debauchery. Oddly enough, this sinful picture grossly contrasts with Christian commandments. For some reason, God-fearing people rarely pray, go to church to confess their sin ask for penance or beg their fellow men for forgiveness for the harm they have done them. Conversely, they push salvation away from themselves…

If I were to face such situation, from today’s standpoint, I would keep on living the way I do. I have no influence on what the fate brings. Orchestra on sinking Titanic kept doing its job until the very end. Business as usual, one would say and this strikes a chord with me.

Oddly enough, five years ago Mr Tusk and Mr Tusk strolled down the pier in Sopot before commemorations of 70^th anniversary of WWII. Today relations between Poland and Russia are, to put it mildly, tense, but just like five years ago I am glad in have the luck to live in peace.

A hero or a traitor?

Gripping, witty, superbly-shot and adroitly-played is “Jack Strong”, political thriller directed by Władysław Pasikowski, which went to the silver screen on 7 Febraury 2014 and within first few days was watched by over half a million cinema-visitors. In terms of form, despite not being the ultimate masterpiece, undoubtedly it could be ranked no lower than most praised Hollywood thrillers. When it comes to substance, opinions are divided, as the film is a biography of colonel Ryszard Kuklinski, one of the most controversial public figures in the history of post-war Poland.

Mr Kuklinski was one of the most prominent officers of the Polish People’s Army. His career developed swiftly since his conscription to army just after World War 2. After several subsequent promotions, he became one of the youngest executive officers in the commandership of the Poland’s military forces and earned himself impeccable credentials of an ardent commie with comrades from Warsaw Pact’s commandership. He participated in preparations for “fraternal aid” in Czechoslovakia in 1968. Since 1972 (or according to some sources since 1967/68 when he served in Vietnam as a member of ICC) he collaborated with CIA as a spy and delivered the U.S. intelligence thousands of pages of documents relating to Warsaw Pact’s and Poland’s defence systems and strategic plans, including plausible nuclear war between NATO and the Warsaw Pact. Along with his family he defected to the United States, evacuated by the American intelligence in November 1981.

The film is claimed to be “based on facts”. From the first scenes, when death sentence on Oleg Pienkowski is executed by throwing the spy into the furnace (in fact the was killed customarily, by being shot at the back of his head and the “burning alive” execution is admitted to have been a myth), to the last scenes in which one of Mr Kuklinski’s sons dies in a traffic accident, being pushed off the road by a huge truck (in fact he was run down several times by an SUV with no number plates in university campus), the film departs from facts or is very likely to include overt fiction. Who can reliably confirm Brzehnev, after a phone call from Jimmy Carter, instructs marshal Kulikov to desist from plans of invading Western Europe? At best in many moments the film is based on conjectures or one-person assertions, taken for granted without third-party verification.

As Adam Krzeminski rightly points out in the recent issue of Polityka, the film is intended to leave no room for doubts or moral reflections. Mr Kuklinski’s treason (objectively judging, no matter what you thought of communist Poland’s degree of its dependence on the Soviet Union, he breached the military oath, sworn in 1947, in which subjugation to the Soviet Union was not mentioned) is fully justified and is worshipped. Actually the purpose of the film is to glorify the controversial person of the colonel and although the film will not make those who think he is a traitor change their mind, but for those who know little about the most famous NATO’s spy in communist Poland, the one-sided film will help shape a positive opinion about Mr Kuklinski.

Those who accuse Mr Kuklinski of treason claim no matter how lame the Polish country was at that time, duty of loyalty was still owed to it. In the film, Mr Kuklinski (the entire plot is a retrospect to his interrogation by Polish prosecutors in Washington in 1997) in an interview excuses himself by saying all the documents he had passed on to Americans pertained to Warsaw Pact and not Poland, hence he betrayed the Warsaw Pact, not Poland. It only takes to watch the film until the end to find out this excuse was untrue – information on preparations to martial law in Poland were internal documents of Polish army and internal office, the very martial law was not a Warsaw Pact operation.

Apart from worlds-apart view’s on Mr Kuklinski’s collaboration with the CIA, there are plenty of understatements, myths and unanswered questions regarding the biography and doings of Mr Kuklinski. Some of them are listed below. Please note facts are separated from my private opinions and other people’s opinions and asked questions mean what they mean in plain English, no need to read between the lines, nor scratch beneath the surface.

1. If Mr Kuklinski knew in advance on the planned imposition of the martial law in Poland, why did not he, nor the US intelligence let the Solidarity movement know about it, to let the dissidents better prepare for the clampdown?

2. Mr Kuklinski was said to live beyond his means long before he began spying for CIA. He earned a lot in Vietnam, but declared to have spent it for a Western car. His wealth was suspicious for his fellow army officers of similar rank, whose financial status was incomparably lower. The unclear source of Mr Kuklinski’s wealth is also mentioned in the film. But how come no one in Polish army’s commandership bothered to look into colonel lavish lifestyle, when according to procedures all persons having access to confidential information should have been closely screened out?

3. For Soviet comrades, Poland was just a satellite country, an inferior republic. Moreover, the Soviet empire of evil and relationships between its chief functionaries were founded on anything, but trust. Bearing this in mind, is it conceivable that Mr Kuklinski, an officer from the most subversive country in the Warsaw pact, could have been granted access to most confidential documents of the Soviet army, or mostly to those related to Poland?

4. During the almost 10-year espionage, Mr Kuklinski was caught red-handed photographing secret documents (this scene is shown in the film), but he got away with it, the report on the dubious situation somehow vanished into the air. In 1981 (also underlined in the film) it was pretty clear there was an American spy in the commandership of the Polish army and all evidence tipped at Mr Kuklinski. At some moment it became clear for everyone he was a traitor and no one bothered to take steps detain him. Even after his defection no one’s head rolled. Lack of reaction among the Poland’s highest-ranked army officers appears daunting.

I deliberately refrain from asking explicitly whether Mr Kuklinski was a double agent, i.e. whether he also spied for Soviets. Given abundance of arguments supporting such hypothesis, coming also from right-wing oriented, or even IPN-affiliated historians, it should not be disregarded. More on such possibility in a series of articles from “Przegląd” weekly here (part 1, part 2, part 3). I do not mind the leftist orientation of the magazine; the articles are informative, often precisely cite sources of information, ascribe statements to specific persons, although I would prefer to see it with more precise footnotes and extensive bibliography at the end, so that a reader could double-check accuracy of ample information these excerpts convey.

Poland sometimes looms as a peculiar country. Is there any other nation in the world that would hail a foreign country’s spy a national hero, as the Polish parliament resolved last Friday? I would hazard a guess in all jurisdiction espionage is a serious crime, subject to severe punishment. In 1984 Mr Kuklinski was in absentia sentenced to death, upon regaining independence the sentence was converted into 25 years of imprisonment, then, in 1997 he was vindicated. Was not it enough?

The squabble between right-wing deputies and their left-wing opponents which took place on Friday in the parliament reflects one of divide lines in the Polish society, not only concerning the assessment of colonel Kuklinski’s deeds, but also the attitude towards what Poland was between 1945 and 1989. Some claim in that period Poland was a Soviet Republic, others argue this was a dependent, lame country, being a part of the Soviet bloc, but still it was Poland, with all implications, including duty of loyalty and respect to one’s country. Stance towards political status of Poland between 1945-1989 is thus a starting point for assessment of Mr Kuklinski’s deeds.

Mr Kuklinski was a hero, but not Poland’s hero. He was instrumental for NATO in gaining the edge over Warsaw Pact and reinforced NATO’s position in case of military conflict between the two blocs and enfeebled Poland by revealing plans of its defence systems.

For me it is clear, unlike many assert, he did not act to the benefit of Poland. During the cold war, United States, nor NATO were not Poland’s allies. Poland for NATO was a part of its biggest enemy, the Warsaw Pact. If a military conflict had come to a pass, Poland would have been only worse-off on account of Mr Kuklinski’s espionage, because NATO strategist would have been better able to prepare plans of attacking and destroying Poland. If his activity could have had contributed to freeing Poland up from the Soviet dominance, I would concede there would be room for debate, but no Western country would have lifted its little finger to liberate Poland from the Soviet empire.

Giving credence to the tall story presented in the film that once Soviet comrades were informed NATO had learnt of Soviet’s blueprints to combative warfare, they immediately got scared and abandoned their plans is naïve. Putting down to Mr Kuklinski changing the course of world’s history is out of place. One man is not capable of doing so, mostly a spy from a hostile military bloc, who for CIA surely was not an implicitly trusted collaborator (as a contact from the hostile bloc he must have been handled with reserve)… Forces driving events in international politics are more complex and have many architects

Nevertheless, if you have not watched Jack Strong yet, I recommend you do so, for the pleasure of watching a decent political thriller.

See the difference...

Maybe such simplified pictures should give us the inspiration and energy to cope with the absurd?
Entrepreneurs will always want to maximize profits on their businesses and pay as little as possible their employees…
Trade unionist will always be trying to earn more and work less…
This view is also simplified – the labour relations evolve in a right direction but the crisis reminds us these principles are to some extent still true…

PS. As I whizzed through the most popular info websites in Polish Internet it appears the tenth anniversary of our accession to North Atlantic Treaty Organisation passed unnoticed. Regrettably, one of the crucial architects, who brought the negotiations to the end, passed away few months ago. There’s nobody to mention his merits, but also nobody to call him “a traitor of Polish nation” or remind his Jewish parentage…

And for the very end – another critical article on our pension system…