Warfare enters its fifth year

The special three-day operation of taking over Ukraine has gone on for more than four years. Four years ago nearly nobody expected that war to last that long, nor believed Ukraine would be capable of resisting the invader and keeping the frontline basically unchanged for months.

The Western countries have shaken off the shock quickly and launched a stream of military and financial aid to Ukraine, often depleting their defensive resources. The invasion has been a wake-up call for those still deluding themselves Russia would not infringe principles set out in the civilised world.

Hollow promises of the US president have not brought a ceasefire for more than a year and little implies there is a chance for warfare suspension in near future. This buys time for Western Europe for preparation for a war with Russia, while the tsar's country slowly bleeds out instead of growing stronger. 

In early 2026 Ukrainians have endured a first harsh winter since the onset of war. As the oppressor focused on destroying the country's energy infrastructure, millions of them have lived through a humanitarian disaster living in blocks of flats devoid of electricity, central heating and running water (except for that from heating pipes cracking when frozen over).

The nation as a whole remains valiant, though it is worth underlining civilians living far from the frontline are not as severely affected as during typical warfare. Ukrainians have got used to (as one can get used to everything) to blackouts, cold and having to run to shelters a few times a week, but except for that, their lives are not at constant peril. The enemy's missiles, rockets and drones target infrastructure, but to a much lesser extent, residential areas.

Over the past months the frontline has not moved much west, while in the recent weeks, thank to disruption of Starlink connection, Ukrainians have regained control over some minor areas (which are burnt grounds anyway). Peace talks are going nowhere and nothing is going to change in this respect, as the invader is not a trustworthy partner.

As four years ago the outbreak of war was beyond our imagination, these days the vision of end of war is also equally hard to imagine. I realise it is a controversial assertion, yet I keep fingers crossed for continuation of warfare. Firstly, since I fear Russia, devoid of the burden of warfare and (heaven forfend) with sanctions lifted will be able to step up preparations for a war with NATO. Secondly, the Polish labour market, deprived of only part of the Ukrainian workforce, will plunge into a structural crisis, as most low-paid jobs have been taken up by migrants (or refugees) from Ukraine. Poles are no longer interested in many of those occupations, so to fill the gap, if some of Ukrainians head home, substantial pay rises would be necessary, triggering a spike in inflation.

#StandWithUkraine

#UkraineStayStrong

To JEST nasza wojna

Dear readers. I put faith in your wisdom and have every confidence if you hear selfish goats from Konfederosja or their likes bleating the war in Ukraine is not our business, you know they are talking f**king rubbish.

Valiant Ukrainian soldiers, with substantial aid from the civilised world, have been keeping Russian army away from the Polish border for more than three and a half years. The Russia indeed occupies over 20% of Ukraine’s territory and attacks with drones spots in the entire country, but the frontline has been nearly intact for a while.

Over the recent weeks, Ukrainian drones keep destroying several refineries in European part of Russia. Estimates of damages done are to be treated with a solid dose of uncertainty, but sources say even up to 40% of total refining capacity of the tsar’s empire might be temporarily for long-lastingly shut down. Even if those figures are over-optimistic and knowing that the army will be the last to run out of fuel, those tidings are a music to my ears.

If what can be heard on a grapevine, namely that Ukraine is bound (with assents from the USA) to target power and heating plants in Russia in the coming weeks, is true, it also brings on a smile on my face, knowing weather forecasts for coming months for Russia do not indicate a mild winter. I do not feely sorry for ordinary Russians, who have superb track record of enduring a lot to help their homeland “prosper”. I also doubt they will ever realise they owe their misery to a totalitarian tsar, not to a rotten West.

In the light above the above, the major positive development in 2025 is that Donald Trump failed to nail down a ceasefire nor a peace agreement. I trust the US president, who two months ago clapped his hands as he was greeting Mr Putin in Alaska, was sufficiently humiliated by his Russian counterpart to come up to his senses.

With ceasefire in place, Russia would not see its industry destroyed. Instead, Putin would get two or three years to prepare for a bigger war, a timeframe over which Europe would not catch up with its enemy. With warfare going on, Russia is getting weaker day by day, admittedly at the price of bloodshed in Ukraine, soldiers and civilians being killed every day. It has to be spoken out Ukraine is paying price for our safety and hence it is a moral obligation of the West to aid it with weapons and information from intelligence.

Mindful of the above, I hope the war does not end soon. I keep fingers crossed for warfare continuing until Russia falls on its knees and then falls flat on its face into a frozen mud in which it has been stuck for centuries and until Ukraine regains its territories occupied by the invaders since 2014. Neither ceasefire nor peace, letting Russia regain its strength, are in a vested interest of Poland.

Chwała Ukrainie! J***ć Brauna i Konfederację!

A lunatic behind the wheel

In the eve of the third anniversary of the invasion to Ukraine, my hopes Donald Trump would act reasonably are dashed. The warfare, marked with attrition on both sides, might within a few months come to an end. Sadly, the peace agreement’s shape might be far from expectations of the civilised world.

The idiocy the US president displays on every step does not cease to amaze, or rather disturb me. How dumb must a man be to say he trusts the russian dictator? How short-sighted must a man be not to predict a ceasefire will buy time to putin’s war machine to build capacity for a broader campaign against NATO? How narcistic must a man be to want to bring the war to an end at any price, just to prove his powerfulness? How brazen must a man be to claim Ukraine has sparked off that war and could have finished it and accuse it of breaching a never nailed down deal?

In his transactional politics, Ukraine has a role of an object, not as a subject, it best summarises endeavours to reach a peace agreement without the invaded country being involved. The US president and his cronies are not interested in protecting NATO or in shielding foundations of the civilised world, such as a country’s right to stand up for its independence and integrity. This guy craves for rights to dig up rare resources beneath the Ukrainian soil. At the end of the day, such approach is still lesser evil than coercing Ukraine to give away occupied areas to russia, as it involves defending territories where rare metals are deposited against the russian army.

Europe in these circumstances appears powerless and sluggish. The EU leaders have belatedly realised they have made a mistake by relying on the behind-the-ocean ally as a guarantor of stability in Europe. Most countries in our region have run out of weapons shipped to Ukraine, have not rebuild their military capacities and now stick to expressing their deep concerns about how the peace is to be restored. The new US administration, no matter how critical we might be towards its policies, does not lack decisiveness and determination to resolve this conflict. Voters around the world are somewhat sick of indecisiveness and powerlessness politicians display; in several countries we see the outcomes of such shift.

Between us – Ukraine has still way to go before it becomes a mature democracy, especially in terms of cracking down on corruption and rule of oligarchs. From the perspective of Poland it needs to get to grips with its history (Wolyn genocide during WW2) But at the moment is is above all a country fighting for its independence and territories belonging to it based on international treaties. For the last 3 years Ukraine kept the russian army away from NATO’s borders. Biden’s administration’s tactics was to wear russia down and deplete its resources sustainably, so that it emerges frail after the war ends. Trump’s policies will help Russia to grow stronger in long term.

If prominent politicians call Ukraine’s president a dictator or claim aid from the Western world was partly seized by oligarchs, they speak one voice with the tsar of russia. This tsar, or his successors, will not stick to any peace agreements in a horizon of more than 3 years. The war will be suspended to let russia rebuild its military power and launch another “special operation” without making mistakes leading to a prolonged warfare in Ukraine.

As an economist I wonder how the imminent suspension of warfare impacts the Polish economy. Along with other analysts, I remain uncertain of impact on the stock market, labour market and housing market. Much depends on migration – depending on the shape of peace agreement, Ukrainians might want to return to their homeland, but a new wave might flee the country. Also, we might sadly expect a normalisation of trade relations with Russia, which is already priced in by the rallying stock market in Warsaw (I slowly begin to dispose of stock-market investment fund units purchased in late 2022 and early 2023).

Where is the war heading?

Two events in world politics from November have passed so far unnoticed on PES. I did not bother to comment on the victory of the narcistic redneck in the US presidential election. Then came the scheduled event, to my positive surprise, echoing in the media – 19 November 2024 was the 1,000th day of the invasion to Ukraine. Those forgetful are now reminded the operation was planned to last three days and end up in installing a puppet government in Kyiv.

Nearly three years after those days Russia controls roughly 20% of the Ukraine’s territory and is slowly progressing. Faced with an imminent power handover, the democratic administration in the US have resolved to allow Ukraine to hit military targets in Russia with weapons delivered by them. This seemed a game changer, but in fact solidifies a stall in the conflict.

Time before the redneck and his cronies takes over is running out. He intends to freeze the warfare, plausibly by leaving territories held by occupiers within their borders. For Russia it means some areas in the Kursk region would stay under Ukraine’s control. If such scenario is the most likely, Ukraine should strive to take over an even bigger territory of Russia, as this decreases odds of Russians agreeing on warfare freezing.

Shortly commenting on the Trump’s victory – I hope once he is sworn in, he will be less unpredictable than he appeared in the campaign and he will be surrounded by wise advisors holding back his silly conceptions. Besides, Europe must act now, as if it was left to its own devices, hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst.

Warfare musings

Forecasts of the Ukraine war development for the summer months were bleak. The Ukrainian defence was foreseen to break down, the invaders, apart from trespassing into the Ukrainian territory, were supposed to provocatively, yet tentatively attempt to disturb peace in the Baltic countries. Fortunately, only a minor part of those predictions proved right.

And then all of the sudden, on 6 August 2024, the Ukrainian army successfully moved the warfare into the territory of the enemy, launching the first incidence of was in the territory of russia or its soviet predecessor since WW2. The counter-attack carries on, with the invaders still shocked their own land has become a battleground.

The intrusion into a poorly-defended Kursk region were meant to prompt the invaders to shift some regiments from Donbas region, where things are not going well and the frontline is slowly progressing west. In simple words, in regions occupied since 2014, Ukraine is being defeated.

If the warfare carries on, 19 November 2024 will be the 1,000th day since its onset. The plan of the dictator was to take over Kyiv within a few days and install a mock-up government out there. Despite running rings around the capital of Ukraine, wreaking destruction and committing genocide, it has not worked out. Ukraine keeps holding strong and the war is far from settlement.

With the imminent attrition of both sides, 3 scenarios can be considered.
The first one - Ukraine wins. Despite ongoing supplies of arms from the West (leave out now who takes over as a president of the United States soon), Ukraine lacks resources to do so.
The second one - Russia wins - unlikely in short-term perspective, sadly conceivable in 2 or 3 years. It would pave the way for their next conquers, also to combat NATO countries.
The third one - both parties are fed up with the warfare and decide to sign a peace treaty. Ukraine loses part of its territory, the invaders ease up for a while. After a while the dictator rebuilds its potential and strikes again.

The old saying if you want peace brace yourself for a war has not gone outdated. With Russia ruled and weapon-equipped as it is now, we will not feel safe for many years. A full-scale invasion into CEE seems unimaginable, but a full-blown warfare is not essential to wreak havoc in the region. Deterrents must be in place, to discourage the dictator from a confrontation with NATO. Besides, unity of allies has to be manifested. For such reason I keep fingers crossed for the victory of Kamala Harris in November.

Belgorod engulfed in warfare

Since the beginning of the russian invasion to Ukraine, the attacked country wages a defensive war. In simple words, it has fought in its own territory (defined as internationally recognised borders in place until early 20214), but has not attacked the enemy’s land. Such approach gave a clear picture who had trespassed whose territory, but at some stage of war turned out to be insufficient to tip the scales towards the one we keep our fingers crossed for.

In the past days, with unhidden delight, I have kept track of destruction wrecked to the empire of evil. Each demolition of an oil refinery is a proper blow to the russian economy. Decreased supplies of fuels dent the country’s revenues (less money on armaments), impair transport as well as contribute to shortages of energy, which are detrimental to the military factories. Every day I watch the shelling of the city of Belgorod located close the Ukrainian border. This area of russia is currently war-ridden and residents who have not decided to flee are experiencing a bit of what the tormented Ukraine has endured for over the last 2 years.

Currently also the civilian infrastructure in russia is being destroyed, civilians in putin’s land are wounded and killed. Call me a scoundrel, but I could not care less. That accursed nation has to pay the price for all the evil its president is doing. Tactically, the strategy of attacking the invader’s area prompts the russian army to retreat to guard its lands, giving some relief from warfare to Ukraine. Such strategy also buys time and defers the probably inevitable confrontation between NATO and russia.

Speaking of the imminent war, I still believe with proper deterrents in place, russia might hold back from attacking any NATO country. But to make it happen, NATO countries need to get their act together to rebuild their military power (depleted by aids to Ukraine) and demonstrate their solidarity.

If the war indeed breaks out, the question is about targets and scale of warfare. Experts claim the enemy will still lack potential to trespass far and wide into NATO territories, but targeted shelling is perfectly conceivable. To paralyse life in large areas, russia only needs to destroy key elements of military and civilian infrastructure. Our homes might not be destroyed, but we might need to get used to conditions in which residents of Kiev had to live for several months, i.e. electricity outages, lost Internet connections, lack of warm water or heating.

Good times are not ahead. Even if the war fortunately does not break out, we as a mankind will need to make sacrifices to prevent the planet from becoming a hell due to global warming.

Two years past the invasion

2 years and 1 days past the day the russian army launched a full-scale invasion into Ukraine, I am looking back at my coverage of those days. For some time I have not been an ardent blogger, but I carry on to save my thoughts for posterity and for myself. Those first days of war were a shock. Until recently majority of us got accustomed to the cruelty behind Poland's eastern border, especially since for months fights on the front were not moving on.

Currently there are more and more reports on scales tipped towards the invaders and military intelligence notes telling despite its failure in the Ukraine, Russia is slowly preparing for a war against NATO, which might break out in 3 to 5 years.

Politicians from countries neighbouring on russia began to speak openly about the eventuality of a war. Those at the biggest peril are:
- Sweden (not a NATO member, the country has not experienced war since 1815),
- Finland (a NATO member since April 2023, badly tainted by Soviets during WW2, having the longest border strip with russia in Europe),
- Norway (remember it borders russia at the northern edge of the continent),
- Baltic countries (used to be a part of the soviet empire for half a century, thus being a natural target),
- Poland (russia's everlasting enemy as a matter of principle) and
- Moldova (a god-forsaken land between Ukraine and Romania).

Preparations for the war should move from a verbal realm into actions, especially military training and manufacturing. It needs to be stressed Europe has supported Ukraine with its own military resources, but over that time effort to rebuild Europe's depleted defence capacity have not been taken. Several countries have run out of their stocks of ammunition or military vehicles, thus NATO's ability to ward off an attack is impaired. Even if the armaments serve a purpose of a deterrent, they are worthwhile (a decade ago I would argue military spending is a waste of public money). Nevertheless the united Europe seems too sluggish. For many years EU countries have not managed too agree on ceasing to move clocks back and forth and switching to daylight saving time, so will they be able to get their act together, especially if for Western Europe the russian soldiers are thousands kilometres away.

Putin's army did not conquer Ukraine, but incurred severe losses in the battlefields. Human-wise, its resources are limited, yet sending millions of conscripts to die in a warfare has never been a problem to the uncivilised empire. Resourse-wise, military manufacturings is running at full blast and there are signs the russian economy has been switched into the military mode. Economic sanctions imposed on russia are bypassed (through countries such as Armenia or Kazakhstan), despite being cut off from modern technologies, russia is not on its knees.

Whatever fate Ukraine meets, Europe has to support it to help the evil invader bleed out there. There era of peace in Europe might soon be over, but let's buy time to defer the moments it goes down in history.

Currently the biggest threat lies in the USA, where the presidential election is due in less than 9 months. If the narcistic, unpredictable psychopat wins, Europe will have reasons to quake. NATO's power largely hinges upon the defence power its overseas ally.

The picture to the right is the cover most recent issue of "Wprost" weekly. Keeping fingers crossed for its poor predictive power, ley ot be contrary to its cartoonist's illustratory skills.

Are we past the trough?

Had I been really good at economic forecasting, I would have been much richer, worked less and probably had more time to indulge in hobbies, including blogging. Sadly, predicting economic variables is, needless to say, subject to a lot of uncertainty. Time permitting, I keep track of what is going on in the real economy and on financial markets and spot some sparkles of optimism.

Stock markets, which usually anticipate economic recoveries, have rebounded recently, with the Warsaw Stock Exchange broad market index being some 20% above its low from early October. Some pundits warn it is just a major correction in the bear market, yet upbeat sentiment has definitely taken over recently.

Natural gas and electricity prices on commodity exchanges, though still volatile, have fallen off peaks from September. With natural gas storage facilities across Europe full, the threat of a severe energy crisis has been somewhat staved off. This also gives relief to entrepreneurs from who energy is an important item in the cost structure, except for those who hedged purchases at peaks.

Commodity prices have also adjusted to lower demand, which means, the demand for them might not necessarily fall. Brent crude oil now costs (in USD) roughly as much as before Russia invaded Ukraine.

The last glimmer of hope are PPI (producer price inflation) readouts, which signify decreasing cost pressure for entrepreneurs, which will with a delay of a few months should translate into lower consumer inflation.

Not all signals from the economy are bright. Profits of companies after 3Q2022 keep falling dramatically, which might hamper their investment plans and necessitate lay-offs.

Consumer confidence in Poland is also record-low, with wallets of ordinary people badly hit by prices of most basic goods rising faster than general inflation (+17.9% in October 2022). With negative real average wage growth (around -4% y/y) the discretionary spending must plummet and so far nothing indicates private consumption could recover soon.

Across Europe a big unknown is the threat of energy shortages during the winter. I lack competencies to assess how real that threat is, but if only the most energy-consuming industries are forced to suspend productions, effects of negative supply shock will spill over the entire economy, send inflation up.

In Poland much depends on the influx of refugees from Ukraine, where the Russian tyrant is trying to destroy the infrastructure to deprive civilians of electricity, heat and water during the winter.

Even if the worst has not come over, I believe it is a matter of a few months. Roll on spring!

The warfare has reached Poland

The accidental missile strike incident which took place on Tuesday, was just a matter of time. Given the scale of warfare so close to the Polish border and probability of a human error, the question was not if, but when it would happen. The areas near the Ukrainian border are not densely populated, so it took more than a bit of bad luck that the missile hit grain storage facilities during its working hours. The two men working there were the first Polish civilians to have become the casualties of the Russian invasion.

The Polish government convened quickly in an emergency mode to discuss the event and its implications, while holding off on any public commentary. While many detracted from their restraint, I can praise them for not saying a word too much and refraining from jumping to conclusions. Nevertheless, the official silence gave rise to a flood of fake news on social media, particularly on Twitter. The incident gave the Russian trolls an excellent opportunity to sieve misinformation; the opportunity they instantly grabbed.

Also the foreign press agencies added up to the informational chaos, quoting unverified alleged statements of intelligence officers. On top, the Ukrainian president Zelensky did not act up to the mark, by making unfounded claims the missile was shot by the Russian army. No civilised man blames Ukrainians who defend their territory against the aggressor for the death of two men, but they should not depart from the truth. The president Biden has rightly reproached Mr Zelensky over his premature assertion. Hope the Ukrainian head of state learns from his mistake and avoids next diplomatic botch-ups.

In the first hours past the incident I wondered if NATO passed the test it had been put to. With hindsight I believe senior military officers have acted considerately and held back from overreacting of what had definitely not been an attack on the territories of the alliance.

Sadly, the scenario which I envisaged a few weeks ago, i.e. that Russia will be destroying Ukrainian infrastructure to provoke a humanitarian disaster in colder months, is materialising. Even if the hell of warfare comes to an end (with Russia being defeated, no other outcome can be imagined), it will take a few years before Ukraine recovers from losses and decades before wounds in Ukrainians’ heart heal.

The warfare at the tipping point?

Those who still keep track of the invasion onto the territory of Poland’s eastern neighbour might realise today is the 228^th day of the war. Most people are sick of it, or indifferent to it. The cruelty of the invaders is no lesser than in the first weeks, but humans sadly have got accustomed to it.

The good news is that the Ukrainian army, aided by the civilised world, is successful in its counteroffensive in the occupied territories, running rings around the feckless Russian regiments. The news are reassuring, yet the better the Ukrainians fare, the more wrathful the unpredictable tyrant is. I feared the date of his 70^th birthday (the day before yesterday), as Putin could have wanted to displayed his might (or actually weakness) to the world. Fortunately, he did not, but the threat of using nuclear weapons, or resorting to some form of targeted nuclear incident still looms imaginable.

Looking back at the history, both Napoleon and Hitler were defeated by Russians during harsh winters. I believe the cold season will be used by the Russian dictator this year as well, not just to blackmail western Europe, still partly dependent on supplies of natural gas, but also to provoke a humanitarian disaster in Ukraine. If large swathes of the country are deprived of energy inputs, Poland will be facing another wave of refugees, even bigger than the one witnessed in the early phase of the warfare.

I keep my fingers crossed for free Ukraine in a pre-2014 territorial shape and hope the price to pay for Ukrainians victory will not be steep.

Off to my girlfriend’s second home in Wisła for two weekends and a working week, so I will catch up with photos of the autumnal mountain areas during the last weekend of October.

The war in Ukraine – implications for the Polish economy

Inevitably, the Russian invasion into the Ukraine, even if hopefully the warfare stays beyond Poland’s border, has and will have impact on our lives. While keeping fingers crossed for the Ukraine’s victory over the heinous aggressor, I am trying to sum up what the conflict means for my country’s economy. As the course of events is difficult to predict, I shall focus on short-term effects, triggered by what has happened so far and split my analysis into eight areas.

1. The labour market.
Currently two sectors face a scarcity of workforce, namely construction and transport which both employ many Ukrainian male workers, some of who have decided to return to their homeland to take up arms. The flow of Ukrainians in productive age into Poland in turn comprises mostly of women (men aged 18-60 are not allowed to leave Ukraine, with some exceptions). They are willing to find a job, yet nobody knows how long the situation will persist and therefore how many of them will come up with supply of work. Quite many of the refugees surely hope the war ends soon and they will be able to return to their homes.

2. The housing market
The inflow of several hundred thousand Ukrainians to Poland (I count out those in transit) trigger a rising demand for flats for rent. The supply of dwellings is constantly dwindling, with many Ukrainians affording to rent flats at market rates. Vacancy rate is going to go down, prices have reportedly nudged up. Poles looking for a place to rent have it now uphill, but with some landlords unwilling to let their spaces to Ukrainians, everyone will find a roof over their head. I hold back from foreseeing a trend in property prices, as there are several other factors which will impact them, with interest rates, rising costs of living and mounting construction costs coming to the fore as price-shapers.

3. The exchange rate
I believe unless something unexpected happens, financial markets are already past the shock phase, though volatility remains high. The Polish currency after hitting levels unseen since two decades (or never seen) is slowly appreciating, but I suppose it will level off at above 4.50 (EUR/PLN) and 4.00 (USD/PLN).

4. Inflation
Given that cutting down on deliveries of commodities from Russia has triggered a negative persistent supply shock and that wheat yields might be even 25% lower, which is bound to bring up food prices, we need to brace for a double-digit inflation lasting for over a year, until the base effect begins to work (alternatively we might fall into a spiralling inflation, bring it under control might be painful).

5. Government finances
Given that accepting refugees from Ukrainians and providing them with humanitarian aid will be shifted from citizens and NGOs to the central and local governments, the budget deficit is likely to rise. What the government definitely needs to do is to arrange a scheme of covering those expenses by the European Union. The costs of helping Ukrainians should be shared equitably, while Poland, by dint of being geographically on the frontline, will be one of the main beneficiary of those funds. Solidarity within the EU must manifest itself in that area.

6. Foreign trade
Here I expect little to happen – I hope once Ukraine emerges victoriously from the war, it will become one of Poland’s main trade partners. The trade with Russia and Belarus, except for commodities, used to be quite marginal and those engaging in it were accepting high political risks. The risks have materialised, risk-takers have to lick wounds. I have no sympathy for them.

7. Consumer habits
Over the recent weeks many households have spent lots of money on humanitarian aid to Ukrainians. They have also realised living costs are bound to go up and austerity might set in. I predict consumers will be less reckless in spending and will think twice before giving away money. With the rising costs of dwelling upkeep, transport and food, discretionary spending is likely to go down.

8. Getting greener
The positive side effect of the war will be acceleration of efforts to decrease the reliance on fossil fuels. In the short run a good time to decrease the temperature inside your house, to give up on driving unless really necessary (I can boast of driving merely 294 kilometres since my last visit to the petrol station on 12 February when I fuelled up my car’s tank to the full, paying mere PLN 5.18 per litre).

Wartime memories – first ten days

For some time the concept of this blog has been to save moment for posterity, therefore I have resolved to take down some notes on how the first ten days of Putin’s invasion looked from my perspective. It is not going to be a coverage of the military conflict which can be found in the media anyway. It will be just a personal record of my thoughts, musings and observations, so that one day I can revisit it and bring days the memories of dismal days which hopefully become the history soon, with a fortunate outcome.

 

Day 1 – Thursday, 24 February 2022

My phone shut down before 3 a.m. I deliberately have not left it on a charger overnight. I decide to charge it up in the morning. I get up at 5:30 a.m., eat a small breakfast and before setting off to the swimming pool, I connect the charger and switch the phone on. I check the recent posts on Twitter. I know it has begun.

After swimming I want to take a shower. For no apparent reason it does not flow. My skin stinks with chlorine, but I head home. Warsaw carries on.

Back home I learn the worst-case scenario of full-scale invasion has materialised.

A hard day at work begins. Nobody calls off business as usual due to the cruel attack on the Poland’s neighbour. Never in my lifetime has the warfare been so close to where I live. I find it hard to focus on work, like all the workmates. As we talk, it turns out most of us were hoping Putin would hold his horses. It was naïve, he is a ruthless psychopath, ready to scorch the earth to bring in his visions. Analogies between Germany after WW1 and Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union are so vivid.

As the sunset draws, panic-mongers begin to queue up to petrol stations. Those idiots firstly send money to Putin, secondly contribute to self-fulfilling prophecy that petrol stations might run out of fuel.

As the evening comes up, I feel exhausted. Partly because of tough 10 hours at work, partly because I fear how the story unfolds. The tsar is unpredictable.

 

Day 2 – Friday, 25 February 2022

With the invasion it became clear that accounts which used to spread pro-pandemic and anti-vaccine disinformation have now become pro-kremlin and ant-Ukrainian overt trolls.

The VPN in my company notebook keeps disconnecting itself for the second day in a row. A coincidence?

In the evening I team up with my mates from Szlachetna Paczka. I devise a plan of setting up “starter kits” for refugee families which would settle down locally. My mates immediately agree to join, so I let the mayor of Ursynów know about our initiative. He promises to keep us informed.

 

Day 3 – Saturday, 26 February 2022

In the morning I walk to the Lidl shop next door and buy two bags of hygiene materials and cosmetics (Rexona and Dove away from my basket), pack the stuff into a cardboard box and drop it to a local collection point. I ask to hand it over to the Ukrainian side of the borders, where it would be more necessary than in Poland.

If I could, I would send them weapons! But more and more countries declare such form of support to Ukraine, which is reassuring.

The spurt of Poles rushing to help Ukraine is spirit-lifting, but will it be long-lasting? It will be a marathon, not a sprint.

When I think of sanctions levied to Russia by the civilised world, I believe the main reason for some countries’ reluctance towards them is the cost of financial isolation. Yes, we have to pay the price for keeping Russia at bay, but the lost profits now are a good investment is the payoff is the absence of Russian tanks in the territory of Poland.

Americans urge their citizens to leave Belarus immediately. They are in the know again.

I pop by to some petrol stations and learn temporary shortages of fuel are a fact. Not only those who panic are to blame for it. Several people take trips in their private cars to the Ukrainian border and fuel up their vehicles in advance, thus boosting demand for fuel (and sending money partly to Putin’s pocket). The aid should be better co-ordinated, I believe.

 

Day 4 – Sunday, 27 February 2022

In the morning my father and I drop my mum off to the cardiac hospital in Anin for a planned treatment (ablation) for a few days. I realise she is stressed-out, not only by the planned surgery, but also since she knows she will be sorry for Ukrainian personnel working there. Admittedly, the willingness to keep company to my mother dragged me away from the involvement in aid to Ukrainians this weekend. But given the social response, I do not need to feel guilty.

In the fourth day of war, Ukraine is doing definitely better than expected, with Ukrainians proving not only bravery, but also shrewdness.

After a few days of silence, Putin threatens to use nuclear weapons. In his paranoia, he is capable of turning large swathes of land into nuclear deserts.

Freezing Russian central bank’s assets will be more painful than exclusion of most of the country’s commercial banks from SWIFT payment system. I fear how markets react tomorrow.

 

Day 5 – Monday, 28 February 2022

In a conversation with my workmates I strongly posit the only way out would be to kill Putin. Easier said than done. He is protected too well to make an assassination doable for a foreign intelligence agent, but Putin will not be alive for long. Irate oligarchs or infuriated military officer might be the ones to liquidate him.

My Facebook account gets restricted on account of posting a derogatory film mocking at Putin. The blockade is imposed by an algorithm, hence I file a complaint. Thus I become a passive user of the platform.

At work there is no major turmoil. For many years lending to companies involved in doing business in Russia was an excessive risk to my employer. Today the restraint pays off.

Boycotting goods with bar codes starting from “4 60”? Noble, yet you will find few of them in the shops, as Russia manufactures little. If you want to spite Putin, turn off the radiator in your dwelling and walk, cycle or take public transport whenever possible. Besides, time to boycott Polish companies which carry on doing business in Russia.

This is the first day of actual carnage of civilians in that war. Shelling residential estates in Kharkiv and shooting civilians on the city’s streets bear out Russians are barbarians. This is genocide.

Besides, conceivably the premises near the Polish-Ukrainian border might be attacked by Russian aircrafts.

 

Day 6 – Tuesday, 1 March 2022

Putin has done what no man has not done for decades. He messed with nearly everybody across the world and brought so many united against him.

My Facebook account gets unlocked after a verification by a human.

There is evidence Russia used vacuum bombs in Ukraine, so far not against civilians. Such weapons are prohibited by conventions and kill even people hiding in shelters.

Russian trolls work at full blast in the Polish Internet to sling muck at refugees from Ukraine. Poland must not fall victim of disinformation!

 

Day 7 – Wednesday, 2 March 2022

I learn with antidepressants I still take, though in lower doses, I cannot be a blood donor, while blood is what Ukrainian hospital need to rescue the injured soldiers.

My mother’s ablation is called off or rather put off until Friday. She is stressed-out and it also affects me. Her health is a yet another reason for concern to me.

In the neighbourhood I spot three cars on UA number plates. Glad somebody has played host to them. I admire people who let Ukrainians stay at their homes. I am afraid that would be beyond my comfort zone. Besides, such accommodation might last months.

 

Day 8 – Thursday, 3 March 2022

A week into the war, most people have shaken off the shock and are slowly coming to terms with the new reality, meaning the war is waged just across the border. With time indifference will grow.

I no longer take it for granted the war does not spill into Poland. The membership into NATO might scare off Russia, but the attach on the Treaty will bring the world on the brink of the nuclear war. I sadly have very little impact on the course of events, hence I convince myself not to worry in advance.

Three cars on UA number plates parked outside my block of flats. Will there be many more? Or is it just a stopover?

Brent oil price reaches nearly 120 USD per barrel, while USD/PLN trades around 4.30. I see double-digit inflation coming to Poland and the threat of stagflation to the whole civilised world. The least civilised part of its will be back into the misery of late 1980s.

 

Day 9 – Friday, 4 March 2022

Wake up to the news Russian missiles nearly missed the biggest nuclear power plant in Europe. Given the lack of precision of the Russian obsolete and run-down military stuff, I suppose we were lucky to have averted a nuclear disaster. Have the invaders lost control or are they trying to blackmail the civilised world?

I somewhat fear the aggressor might attack the Polish-Ukrainian border and civilians aiding there. With the uncivilised enemy, everything is conceivable.

NATO keeps holding back from getting involved in the conflict. I believe the fear of WW3 is the key reason for their restraint. Hoping their words about getting prepared for the worst-case scenario are not just hollow declarations.

In the afternoon my mother has her ablation. Preliminarily doctors say the treatment is successful.

 

Day 10 – Saturday, 5 March 2022

So far over 700,000 (exact numbers vary depending on source) refugees from Ukraine crossed the border with Poland. Will they be able to returns to their homes and rebuild their country soon? Will Poles exhibit so much hospitality towards them as they do these days? Will European Union help Poland take the burden of allocating refugees across the member states? Are the just past the first wave of migrants? Is it just the beginning? So many questions remain unanswered.

Helping Ukrainians will be a marathon, not a sprint, while people who rush to aid are sadly likely to run out of energy and resources far too soon. I recall the beginnings of the pandemic, the spurt of responsibility and solidarity which gave way to fatigue and indifference several weeks later.

If this all is hopefully over, there will come the time to bring to account those who advocated Russia recently. The first to be cracked down on will be the deputies of Konfederusja, mentally ill Grzegorz Braun and eccentric nutter Janusz Korwin-Mikke. Support for the far-right party declined below 5%. Hope they won’t make it to the parliament in 2023.