Monday, 13 April 2009

Awaiting the tumble

Yesterday, after the whole day spent on the family round-up, I took a peek at one of the forums to find out what the “pyjama investors” make of the latest rally on Warsaw Stock Exchange. Predictably, their views were divided – some claimed “that train (WIG 20) will reach the station “point 1921” in the upcoming week”, their opponents dampened their enthusiasm by adding “unless it derails”. To my mind, that train is doomed to derail, only the moment it occurs is still unsettled…
In theory, the assets’ prices should reflect its intrinsic value, in practise the prices are fixed by the game of supply and demand, i.e. market forces, consequently, mostly by the moods of investors, or rather speculators. The latter will sooner or later spot the lack of fundamental factors which could drive the indices up, make up their minds and take the profits, getting the return of more than ten per cent within less than two weeks. Neither the performance of companies listed on WSE, nor our economy give the reasons for optimism, that’s why we have just witnessed a bull raid which might have seemed to be the light at the end of the tunnel. Bull market will be back, but not this spring. Maybe the worst is what we’ve left behind, but I’d project a substantial revival not earlier than in 2010. One of the market analyst said in the first half of the year bears would prevail on the trading floor, but in the second have they would give way to the bulls. I’d argue this will be the year of market timing – these would be the insightful speculators (including clever individual players) to seize the opportunity and make a pile…

After a tragic blaze in Kamień Pomorski, in which twenty one people lost their lives, president declared a three-day national mourning. The already fifth one in his term, what gives averagely one mourning in every eights months. Within the whole decade of nineties we had one national mourning, fully legitimate, to commemorate the victims of the flood of the millennium on Down Silesia (death toll exceeded 50). Within the last few years we’ve gone through so many mournings that we no longer care when it’s announced. I do not deny – it’s a dreadful tragedy, the fatalities dying in flames must have suffered a lot, the ones who saved their lives experienced a terrible shock, often amplified by the loss of their relatives. If possible, make at least a token transfer on the account of city council in Kamień Pomorski. It’s probably the best way we can help them, without the feigned sorrow.

Oddział w Kamieniu Pomorskim
18 1240 3868 1111 0000 4090 8896

PS. That’s not the first Easter Monday when we’re woken up by the alarming news of tragedy. On Easter Monday, 17th April 1995 gas explosion destroyed the tower block in Gdańsk. Twenty two people, including the alleged perpetrator, died, the building had to be demolished. The causes of the explosion remain unknown.

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