For
starters, a look back at a long-term forecast published on 30 August 2018
(sadly the substantiating page to which I link was deleted 6 months after
publishing)/
October
2018 – temperature around long-term mean, or below, frequent rainfalls. Wrong –
little rainfall and above-average temperatures!
November
2018 – no extremely high temperatures, yet sunny. Wrong – 2018 saw the warmest first
decade of November in the history, with record-breaking temperatures reported
in many places in Poland
December
2018 – higher mild winter, with high precipitation. Right, all in all.
January
2019 – instead of snow and freeze, lots of rain, with record-high temperatures.
Wrong – temperature-wise very close to long-term average, with many sorts of
precipitation.
February
2019 – mild winter to continue, Sparse snow and sub-zero temperatures. Right,
pre-spring began early in 2019.
March 2019 –
early onset of spring with lots of precipitation. Partly right – since indeed
March was warm, yet very dry.
26
September 2018
First
ground frost in Warsaw (two metres above ground temperature dropped to +1.1C),
however in many placed in Poland sub-zero temperatures were measured just
before dawn. This was a one-off incidence of chill, marking a sudden shift from
late summer (+27C recorded mere five days earlier).
27 October
2018
I’m having
my tyres changes for winter ones. Had it not been for a high likelihood of
being quite busy over next two weekends, I would have put it back until 10
November, as over coming two weeks the temperature is projected to rarely drop
below +7C, not to mention no sign of winter on the horizon.
First frost
this autumn (four days short of turning up record-late, as on 21 November
2017), bites firmly, since temperature at dawn falls to -4C. Anomalously warm
late autumn has given way to pre-winter.
18 November
2018
First
freezing rain this year, first sleet this year, all washed away by pouring rain
in the evening. Road clearance services in Warsaw have not buggered up!
19 November
2018 – 27 November 2018
Ugly
pre-winter with temperatures around zero, overcast sky (nearly no sunshine),
chilly winds, frequent fogs, but little precipitation, including no snow.
28 November
2018 – 30 November 2018
We are
shifting into thermal (sub-zero temperatures all day round) but snow-free
winter mode. Finally lots of sunshine, somewhat obscured by smog, but chilly
wind makes it feel like well below -10C.
November
2018 in terms of temperature was warm (though after the first half it stood the
chance of being record-warm); Temperature in Warsaw averaged out +4.4C, vs.
long-term mean of +3.2C. Stats:
-
month-time high: +19.2C on 2 November 2018 (historical heat record broken),
-
month-time low: –8.9C on 30 November 2018 (the end of the month was chilly),
- the
warmest day: 2 November 2018 (daily average of whopping +14.4C),
- the
coldest day: 30 November 2018 (daily average of –5.7C, what a contrast over
mere four weeks).
1 December
2018
With a
pre-dawn low of -12C December gives a cold welcome, but temperature inclines to
-4C as the sun heats the earth up. Judging by long-term forecasts, double-digit
frost should not repeat this year.
2 December
2018
Temperature
soars overnight to cross the point of freezing in the morning. Still sunny and
noticeably warmer.
3 December
2018 – 7 December 2018
On the
verge of winter with some night-time frosts and nasty stuff typical for winter;
freezing rain, hoar frost, sleet, freezing fog. Roads and pavements slippery.
8 December
2018 – 11 December 2018
A spell of
rainy late autumn with temperatures above freezing and not a bit of sunshine.
12 December
2018
Most of
Poland is hit by heavy snow or sleet turning roads and pavements into ice
rinks. Warsaw escapes severe weather, except for sleet in the evening.
13 December
2018 – 15 December 2018
Temperature
very close to zero. Little snow falls, even less of it lingers. Waiting for the
first proper delivery of snow this winter.
16 December
2018
Finally,
first decent snowfall! It snows by midday, but less than five centimetres of
white powder accumulate. Judging by current predictions, it will be washed away
before Christmas (though long-term forecasts have chopped and changed).
17 December
2018 – 19 December 2018
Temperature
fluctuating between -6C and 0C. Skies are overcast, yet no precipitation is
witnessed. The snow slowly evaporates.
20 December
2018
Still below
zero. A little blizzard hits Warsaw during evening rush hour. Meteorologists
warn the snow would soon turn into freezing rain as temperature is set to rise
soon.
21 December
2018
More snow
has fallen overnight, but it thaws out before dawn. Snows melt quickly in the
rain.
22 December
2018
Whatever
remnants of the white substance had escaped yesterday’s meltdown, have
disappeared overnight. Up to +7C, with occasional rain and chilly wind. The
annual Christmas thaw in overdrive.
23 December
2018
Gloomy. It
snows in the afternoon, but mammoth snowflakes instantly melt. +5C and pouring
rain in the evening.
24 December
2018
Snow
falling in the morning and… melting. Sleet in the afternoon. A light dusting of
snow in the evening, which lingers on some surfaces, yet too little to call it
white Christmas.
25 December
2018
The sparse
snow fallen yesterday evening disappears completely by midday. Temperature
turns positive and according to most recent forecasts is about to stay above
freezing by the end of the year.
26 December
2018 – 30 December 2018
Grey, rainy
weather without a littlest bit of sunshine, nor frost.
31 December
2018
Of note are
two hours of sunshine, first since two since weeks. Still balmy…
December
2018 was slightly warm. Average temperature in Warsaw was +1.5C (vs. long-term
average of –0.7C) Stats:
-
month-time high: +8.4C on 8 December 2018 (in recent years December’s highs
were double-digit)
-
month-time low: –11.8C on 1 December 2018 (oddly enough, beginning of December
was the coldest, exactly like in 2010),
- the
warmest day: 8 December 2018 (daily average of +7.8C, not around Christmas this
year),
- the
coldest day: 1 December 2018 (daily average of –8.1C),
- number of
days with snow cover: 8,
- the
highest snow depth: 5 centimetres on 21 December 2018.
1 January
2019
Warm and
rainy beginning of 2019. But mild winter is just round the corner.
2 January
2019
Temperature
drifting towards zero (the point of freezing is reached in the evening). In the
morning – heavy rain, then sleet and snow, yet by late evening instantly
melting.
3 January
2019
One sunny,
frosty, windy, chilly day. Warsaw escapes an assault of winter which is
struggled by many cities in Poland
4 January
2019
Still
frosty. Snow showers begin around midday, but the layer of white powder is
relatively thin, hence does not play havoc with the traffic.
5 January
2019
The weather
is dynamic. In the morning heavy snow in temperature near zero, taking aback
road clearance services for the first time since… long ago. By midday
temperature rises to +2C and rain beings to melt the snow. In the evening the
short thaw ceases, what has melted freezes up.
Temperature
below zero with gently falling snow. Still windy…
7 January
2019
As skies
clear over, double-digit frost hits again. At dawn temperature drops to -12C,
but then shoots up to reach -3C early in the afternoon.
8 January
2019
Morning
brings freezing drizzle, then regular snow which ceases to fall in late
afternoon, raising the layer of snow by some 3 centimetres. Temperature fails
to creep above zero. Slippery… At the same time rain lashes down in western
Poland (where they enjoy +5C and not a trace of lousy snow).
9 January
2019
Was
supposed to thaw out for a while, but it didn’t. Instead, some two centimetres
of new show have gently fallen. City clearance services bugger it all up both
on roads and pavements this year. Slippery everywhere… I’ve had enough of
winter…
10 January
2019
Chilly,
around -6C over the day and with a little dose of new snow. For the record,
weather across Poland has been marked by contrasts. Western part have stayed in
late autumn (rain, sleet, temperature near zero) which central and eastern
swathes are kept in winter’s grip. As I write it, at 9:00 p.m. temperature in
Koszalin is +2C while in Suwałki thermometers show -16C.
11 January
2019
-10C at
dawn. Little snow, then sunshine, then snow again. -3C in the evening. Note the
weather is so dynamic that I cannot make a composite record even for two days
in a row.
12 January
2019
The first
day of thaw. Temperature of mere +1C does not let the snow melt quickly.
Thaw steps
up and gets rainy. Snow melts quickly.
14 January
2019
Another day
of dynamic weather. In the morning it rains, then it cools down towards the
point of freezing, but skies clear over. After sunset a freezing sleet or hell
knows what hits southern fringes of Warsaw and turns roads and pavements into
veritable ice rink, causing traffic chaos.
15 January
2019
Roads have
been salted overnight, so moving about returns towards normalcy. After a
cloudy, but snow-free it snows again in the evening (by tomorrow morning it
melts).
16 January
2019 – 17 January 2019
All-out,
incessant thaw. Rainy, cloudy, ghastly, grey.
Getting
colder. Several snow showers during the day, however temperature stays
positive, so the snow does not linger.
Rather
sunny, clement, kind of bright, though frosty (between -5C and 0C). No such
thing as snow.
21 January
2019 – 24 January 2019
Sometimes
gloomy and cloudy, sometimes sunny and bright, yet still without flurry.
Single-digit frost.
25 January
2019
-6C, or
minus six Celsius degrees. Flurry which hits in such temperature is crisp, thin
and light, but road salt does not prove as effective as it is just below the
point of freezing.
Roads have
been cleared up overnight. It begins to snow again in the afternoon, yet the
precipitation is rather sparse.
Temperature
climbs to 0C. Winter is giving up for a while.
28 January
2019
Thaw comes
over, up to +2C. Wet, thick snow falls in the evening and refuses to melt.
29 January
2019
A
relatively warm day, with day-time high of +3C.
30 January
2019 – 31 January 2019
Colder.
Temperature just above 0C and snow falling nearly incessantly and not
necessarily melting.
January 2019
was normal; with no extremes and frequent through-zero movements and abundant
icy conditions. Average temperature in Warsaw was –1.8C (vs. long-term average
of –1.9C). Stats:
-
month-time high: +6.6C on 1 January 2019 (compared to previous years not too
warm),
-
month-time low: –11.8C on 7 January 2019 (I wonder whether it drops any lower
this winter),
- the
warmest day: 17 January 2019 (daily average of +3.9C),
- the
coldest day: 11 January 2019 (daily average of –6.9C),
- number of
days with snow cover: 20,
- the
highest snow depth: 8 centimetres on 11 January 2019.
1 February
2019
Mild thaw,
a bright (at times sunny day).
2 February
2019 – 3 February 2019
The first
intimation of spring. Temperatures near +10C, gusty southerly winds, partly
cloudy, partly sunny.
4 February
2019
Out of the
blue… Hits the morning snow. Dense, thick, heavy, falling in slightly sub-zero
temperature partly lingers, partly turns into slush. By the end of day it is
not gone, since with day-time high of +1C it refuses to melt quickly.
5 February
2019 – 6 February 2019
“Through
zero” weather, meaning night-time frost (little below freezing) and day-time
(mild) thaw. Frequent precipitation in form of snow of freezing rain = icy…
7 February 2019
– 11 February 2019
Noticeably
warm days (close to double-digits), but cooler nights (close to zero). Little
precipitation, moderate dose of sunshine. These days bring another whiff of
pre-spring.
Somewhat
colder (from mild frost to no more than +2C), chilly, cloudy, snow, sleet,
drizzle.
14 February
2019 – 20 February 2019
Definitely
not a winter weather. Positive temperatures nearly all the time, once nearing
heat records, generally sunny or foggy, but with little rain or drizzle.
21 February
2019
The last
day of the warm spell, a wet, rainy, dark day…
22 February
2019
Temperature
plummets overnight from +4C to -5C, plus a light dusting of snow. Icy, chilly,
but sunny
23 February
2019
The coldest
morning this February followed by a rather sunny day. Warmth is bound to return
tomorrow.
24 February
2019 – 28 February 2019
Getting
warmer day by day. Although mornings bring temperatures close to zero, day-time
highs drift towards double digits. Funnily enough, last year end of February
saw temperatures dropping to -15C each dawn.
February
2019 was very warm. Average temperature in Warsaw was +3.2C (vs. long-term
average of –1.0C). The weather was March-like with few incidences of wintery
conditions. Stats:
- month-time
high: +14.0C on 19 February 2019 (more than 3 degrees short of all-time record
set on 25 February 1990),
-
month-time low: –7.0C on 23 February 2019,
- the
warmest day: 28 February 2019 (daily average of +7.2C),
- the
coldest day: 22 February 2019 (daily average of –3.0C),
- number of
days with snow cover: 8,
- the
highest snow depth: 3 centimetres on 1 February 2019.
1 March
2019 – 3 March 2019
A bit of
colder, with night-time frost. Gloomy.
4 March
2019 – 10 March 2019
Another
assault of spring.. Temperature fluctuates between +2C and +16C. The period is
characterized by gusty winds which blow the scent of spring, yet do not let
feel the warmth. The notable event is the first thunderstorm this year on 9
March.
11 March
2019
A light
dusting of snow fallen overnight… Melts quite fast, but reminds in mid-March
saying the winter is over might be premature.
12 March
2019 – 16 March 2019
A string of
windy and thus chilly (with actual temperature fluctuating between 0C and +10c
nearly all the time) days. Spring not yet in the air and the full-blown one, as
it hit in early April in 2016, 2017 and 2018 I sense is a long way off.
17 March
2019
Warm
breeze, sunshine, scent of spring is in the air, +17C in the afternoon. But
just for one day. I still believe Warsaw will be covered by snow in March or in
early days of April.
18 March
2019 – 20 March 2019
Somewhat
colder, even with morning frosts, chilly winds keep blowing.
21 March
2019 – 22 March 2019
Spring in
the air, I adore that specific scent. Temperatures above +5C. Still waiting for
the last snow this winter…
23 March
2019
6 a.m. –
frost on grass, 2 p.m. – balmy +16C. Whiffs of warmth at this time of year are
short-lasting.
24 March
2019 – 25 March 2019
Getting
colder, i.e. single-digit temperatures. Cloudy, yet without rainfall.
26 March
2019
I waited
for the last snow this winter and it came. It was meant to fall overnight, but
came in the afternoon with a hailstorm, sending the temperature towards zero.
Of note – it has not melted.
27 March
2019
After a
frosty morning sunbeam melt probably the last snowflakes this… spring.
27 March
2019 – 31 March 2019
March has a
warm ending with double-digit day-time highs. Long-term forecasts do no herald
any relapse of winter.
March 2019
was warm. Average temperature in Warsaw was +6.0C (vs. long-term average of
+2.8C). Impressive warm, yet colder than in 2014 (+7.0C) or 2017 (+6.2C).
Stats:
-
month-time high: +17.1C on 17 March 2019 (plenty of sunshine on that day),
-
month-time low: –4.8C on 3 March 2019 (compare it to -15C measured in early
March 2018),
- the
warmest day: 4 March 2019 (daily average of +11.8C, thanks to night-time low of
+8C),
- the
coldest day: 2 March 2018 (daily average of –1.4C, see how quickly the
temperature soared,
- number of
days with snow cover: 2,
- the
highest snow depth: 1 centimetre on 11 March 2019.
Two first
days of April brought morning frosts (and clear blue skies), but then each day
temperatures were inclining. Time to bid a farewell to winter weather!