Sunday, 7 April 2019

Winter timeline 2018/19

For starters, a look back at a long-term forecast published on 30 August 2018 (sadly the substantiating page to which I link was deleted 6 months after publishing)/

October 2018 – temperature around long-term mean, or below, frequent rainfalls. Wrong – little rainfall and above-average temperatures!

November 2018 – no extremely high temperatures, yet sunny. Wrong – 2018 saw the warmest first decade of November in the history, with record-breaking temperatures reported in many places in Poland

December 2018 – higher mild winter, with high precipitation. Right, all in all.

January 2019 – instead of snow and freeze, lots of rain, with record-high temperatures. Wrong – temperature-wise very close to long-term average, with many sorts of precipitation.

February 2019 – mild winter to continue, Sparse snow and sub-zero temperatures. Right, pre-spring began early in 2019.

March 2019 – early onset of spring with lots of precipitation. Partly right – since indeed March was warm, yet very dry.

26 September 2018
First ground frost in Warsaw (two metres above ground temperature dropped to +1.1C), however in many placed in Poland sub-zero temperatures were measured just before dawn. This was a one-off incidence of chill, marking a sudden shift from late summer (+27C recorded mere five days earlier).

27 October 2018
I’m having my tyres changes for winter ones. Had it not been for a high likelihood of being quite busy over next two weekends, I would have put it back until 10 November, as over coming two weeks the temperature is projected to rarely drop below +7C, not to mention no sign of winter on the horizon.

First frost this autumn (four days short of turning up record-late, as on 21 November 2017), bites firmly, since temperature at dawn falls to -4C. Anomalously warm late autumn has given way to pre-winter.

18 November 2018
First freezing rain this year, first sleet this year, all washed away by pouring rain in the evening. Road clearance services in Warsaw have not buggered up!

19 November 2018 – 27 November 2018
Ugly pre-winter with temperatures around zero, overcast sky (nearly no sunshine), chilly winds, frequent fogs, but little precipitation, including no snow.

28 November 2018 – 30 November 2018
We are shifting into thermal (sub-zero temperatures all day round) but snow-free winter mode. Finally lots of sunshine, somewhat obscured by smog, but chilly wind makes it feel like well below -10C.

November 2018 in terms of temperature was warm (though after the first half it stood the chance of being record-warm); Temperature in Warsaw averaged out +4.4C, vs. long-term mean of +3.2C. Stats:
- month-time high: +19.2C on 2 November 2018 (historical heat record broken),
- month-time low: –8.9C on 30 November 2018 (the end of the month was chilly),
- the warmest day: 2 November 2018 (daily average of whopping +14.4C),
- the coldest day: 30 November 2018 (daily average of –5.7C, what a contrast over mere four weeks).

1 December 2018
With a pre-dawn low of -12C December gives a cold welcome, but temperature inclines to -4C as the sun heats the earth up. Judging by long-term forecasts, double-digit frost should not repeat this year.

2 December 2018
Temperature soars overnight to cross the point of freezing in the morning. Still sunny and noticeably warmer.

3 December 2018 – 7 December 2018
On the verge of winter with some night-time frosts and nasty stuff typical for winter; freezing rain, hoar frost, sleet, freezing fog. Roads and pavements slippery.

8 December 2018 – 11 December 2018
A spell of rainy late autumn with temperatures above freezing and not a bit of sunshine.

12 December 2018
Most of Poland is hit by heavy snow or sleet turning roads and pavements into ice rinks. Warsaw escapes severe weather, except for sleet in the evening.

13 December 2018 – 15 December 2018
Temperature very close to zero. Little snow falls, even less of it lingers. Waiting for the first proper delivery of snow this winter.

16 December 2018
Finally, first decent snowfall! It snows by midday, but less than five centimetres of white powder accumulate. Judging by current predictions, it will be washed away before Christmas (though long-term forecasts have chopped and changed).

17 December 2018 – 19 December 2018
Temperature fluctuating between -6C and 0C. Skies are overcast, yet no precipitation is witnessed. The snow slowly evaporates.

20 December 2018
Still below zero. A little blizzard hits Warsaw during evening rush hour. Meteorologists warn the snow would soon turn into freezing rain as temperature is set to rise soon.

21 December 2018
More snow has fallen overnight, but it thaws out before dawn. Snows melt quickly in the rain.

22 December 2018
Whatever remnants of the white substance had escaped yesterday’s meltdown, have disappeared overnight. Up to +7C, with occasional rain and chilly wind. The annual Christmas thaw in overdrive.

23 December 2018
Gloomy. It snows in the afternoon, but mammoth snowflakes instantly melt. +5C and pouring rain in the evening.

24 December 2018
Snow falling in the morning and… melting. Sleet in the afternoon. A light dusting of snow in the evening, which lingers on some surfaces, yet too little to call it white Christmas.

25 December 2018
The sparse snow fallen yesterday evening disappears completely by midday. Temperature turns positive and according to most recent forecasts is about to stay above freezing by the end of the year.

26 December 2018 – 30 December 2018
Grey, rainy weather without a littlest bit of sunshine, nor frost.

31 December 2018
Of note are two hours of sunshine, first since two since weeks. Still balmy…

December 2018 was slightly warm. Average temperature in Warsaw was +1.5C (vs. long-term average of –0.7C) Stats:
- month-time high: +8.4C on 8 December 2018 (in recent years December’s highs were double-digit)
- month-time low: –11.8C on 1 December 2018 (oddly enough, beginning of December was the coldest, exactly like in 2010),
- the warmest day: 8 December 2018 (daily average of +7.8C, not around Christmas this year),
- the coldest day: 1 December 2018 (daily average of –8.1C),
- number of days with snow cover: 8,
- the highest snow depth: 5 centimetres on 21 December 2018.

1 January 2019
Warm and rainy beginning of 2019. But mild winter is just round the corner.

2 January 2019
Temperature drifting towards zero (the point of freezing is reached in the evening). In the morning – heavy rain, then sleet and snow, yet by late evening instantly melting.

3 January 2019
One sunny, frosty, windy, chilly day. Warsaw escapes an assault of winter which is struggled by many cities in Poland

4 January 2019
Still frosty. Snow showers begin around midday, but the layer of white powder is relatively thin, hence does not play havoc with the traffic.

5 January 2019
The weather is dynamic. In the morning heavy snow in temperature near zero, taking aback road clearance services for the first time since… long ago. By midday temperature rises to +2C and rain beings to melt the snow. In the evening the short thaw ceases, what has melted freezes up.

Temperature below zero with gently falling snow. Still windy…

7 January 2019
As skies clear over, double-digit frost hits again. At dawn temperature drops to -12C, but then shoots up to reach -3C early in the afternoon.

8 January 2019
Morning brings freezing drizzle, then regular snow which ceases to fall in late afternoon, raising the layer of snow by some 3 centimetres. Temperature fails to creep above zero. Slippery… At the same time rain lashes down in western Poland (where they enjoy +5C and not a trace of lousy snow).

9 January 2019
Was supposed to thaw out for a while, but it didn’t. Instead, some two centimetres of new show have gently fallen. City clearance services bugger it all up both on roads and pavements this year. Slippery everywhere… I’ve had enough of winter…

10 January 2019
Chilly, around -6C over the day and with a little dose of new snow. For the record, weather across Poland has been marked by contrasts. Western part have stayed in late autumn (rain, sleet, temperature near zero) which central and eastern swathes are kept in winter’s grip. As I write it, at 9:00 p.m. temperature in Koszalin is +2C while in Suwałki thermometers show -16C.

11 January 2019
-10C at dawn. Little snow, then sunshine, then snow again. -3C in the evening. Note the weather is so dynamic that I cannot make a composite record even for two days in a row.

12 January 2019
The first day of thaw. Temperature of mere +1C does not let the snow melt quickly.

Thaw steps up and gets rainy. Snow melts quickly.

14 January 2019
Another day of dynamic weather. In the morning it rains, then it cools down towards the point of freezing, but skies clear over. After sunset a freezing sleet or hell knows what hits southern fringes of Warsaw and turns roads and pavements into veritable ice rink, causing traffic chaos.

15 January 2019
Roads have been salted overnight, so moving about returns towards normalcy. After a cloudy, but snow-free it snows again in the evening (by tomorrow morning it melts).

16 January 2019 – 17 January 2019
All-out, incessant thaw. Rainy, cloudy, ghastly, grey.

Getting colder. Several snow showers during the day, however temperature stays positive, so the snow does not linger.

19 January 2019 – 20 January 2019
Rather sunny, clement, kind of bright, though frosty (between -5C and 0C). No such thing as snow.

21 January 2019 – 24 January 2019
Sometimes gloomy and cloudy, sometimes sunny and bright, yet still without flurry. Single-digit frost.

25 January 2019
-6C, or minus six Celsius degrees. Flurry which hits in such temperature is crisp, thin and light, but road salt does not prove as effective as it is just below the point of freezing.

Roads have been cleared up overnight. It begins to snow again in the afternoon, yet the precipitation is rather sparse.

Temperature climbs to 0C. Winter is giving up for a while.

28 January 2019
Thaw comes over, up to +2C. Wet, thick snow falls in the evening and refuses to melt.

29 January 2019
A relatively warm day, with day-time high of +3C.

30 January 2019 – 31 January 2019
Colder. Temperature just above 0C and snow falling nearly incessantly and not necessarily melting.

January 2019 was normal; with no extremes and frequent through-zero movements and abundant icy conditions. Average temperature in Warsaw was –1.8C (vs. long-term average of –1.9C). Stats:
- month-time high: +6.6C on 1 January 2019 (compared to previous years not too warm),
- month-time low: –11.8C on 7 January 2019 (I wonder whether it drops any lower this winter),
- the warmest day: 17 January 2019 (daily average of +3.9C),
- the coldest day: 11 January 2019 (daily average of –6.9C),
- number of days with snow cover: 20,
- the highest snow depth: 8 centimetres on 11 January 2019.

1 February 2019
Mild thaw, a bright (at times sunny day).

2 February 2019 – 3 February 2019
The first intimation of spring. Temperatures near +10C, gusty southerly winds, partly cloudy, partly sunny.

4 February 2019
Out of the blue… Hits the morning snow. Dense, thick, heavy, falling in slightly sub-zero temperature partly lingers, partly turns into slush. By the end of day it is not gone, since with day-time high of +1C it refuses to melt quickly.

5 February 2019 – 6 February 2019
“Through zero” weather, meaning night-time frost (little below freezing) and day-time (mild) thaw. Frequent precipitation in form of snow of freezing rain = icy…

7 February 2019 – 11 February 2019
Noticeably warm days (close to double-digits), but cooler nights (close to zero). Little precipitation, moderate dose of sunshine. These days bring another whiff of pre-spring.

12 February 2019 – 13 February 2019
Somewhat colder (from mild frost to no more than +2C), chilly, cloudy, snow, sleet, drizzle.

14 February 2019 – 20 February 2019
Definitely not a winter weather. Positive temperatures nearly all the time, once nearing heat records, generally sunny or foggy, but with little rain or drizzle.

21 February 2019
The last day of the warm spell, a wet, rainy, dark day…

22 February 2019
Temperature plummets overnight from +4C to -5C, plus a light dusting of snow. Icy, chilly, but sunny

23 February 2019
The coldest morning this February followed by a rather sunny day. Warmth is bound to return tomorrow.

24 February 2019 – 28 February 2019
Getting warmer day by day. Although mornings bring temperatures close to zero, day-time highs drift towards double digits. Funnily enough, last year end of February saw temperatures dropping to -15C each dawn.

February 2019 was very warm. Average temperature in Warsaw was +3.2C (vs. long-term average of –1.0C). The weather was March-like with few incidences of wintery conditions. Stats:
- month-time high: +14.0C on 19 February 2019 (more than 3 degrees short of all-time record set on 25 February 1990),
- month-time low: –7.0C on 23 February 2019,
- the warmest day: 28 February 2019 (daily average of +7.2C),
- the coldest day: 22 February 2019 (daily average of –3.0C),
- number of days with snow cover: 8,
- the highest snow depth: 3 centimetres on 1 February 2019.

1 March 2019 – 3 March 2019
A bit of colder, with night-time frost. Gloomy.

4 March 2019 – 10 March 2019
Another assault of spring.. Temperature fluctuates between +2C and +16C. The period is characterized by gusty winds which blow the scent of spring, yet do not let feel the warmth. The notable event is the first thunderstorm this year on 9 March.

11 March 2019
A light dusting of snow fallen overnight… Melts quite fast, but reminds in mid-March saying the winter is over might be premature.
12 March 2019 – 16 March 2019
A string of windy and thus chilly (with actual temperature fluctuating between 0C and +10c nearly all the time) days. Spring not yet in the air and the full-blown one, as it hit in early April in 2016, 2017 and 2018 I sense is a long way off.

17 March 2019
Warm breeze, sunshine, scent of spring is in the air, +17C in the afternoon. But just for one day. I still believe Warsaw will be covered by snow in March or in early days of April.

18 March 2019 – 20 March 2019
Somewhat colder, even with morning frosts, chilly winds keep blowing.

21 March 2019 – 22 March 2019
Spring in the air, I adore that specific scent. Temperatures above +5C. Still waiting for the last snow this winter…

23 March 2019
6 a.m. – frost on grass, 2 p.m. – balmy +16C. Whiffs of warmth at this time of year are short-lasting.

24 March 2019 – 25 March 2019
Getting colder, i.e. single-digit temperatures. Cloudy, yet without rainfall.

26 March 2019
I waited for the last snow this winter and it came. It was meant to fall overnight, but came in the afternoon with a hailstorm, sending the temperature towards zero. Of note – it has not melted.

27 March 2019
After a frosty morning sunbeam melt probably the last snowflakes this… spring.

27 March 2019 – 31 March 2019
March has a warm ending with double-digit day-time highs. Long-term forecasts do no herald any relapse of winter.

March 2019 was warm. Average temperature in Warsaw was +6.0C (vs. long-term average of +2.8C). Impressive warm, yet colder than in 2014 (+7.0C) or 2017 (+6.2C). Stats:
- month-time high: +17.1C on 17 March 2019 (plenty of sunshine on that day),
- month-time low: –4.8C on 3 March 2019 (compare it to -15C measured in early March 2018),
- the warmest day: 4 March 2019 (daily average of +11.8C, thanks to night-time low of +8C),
- the coldest day: 2 March 2018 (daily average of –1.4C, see how quickly the temperature soared,
- number of days with snow cover: 2,
- the highest snow depth: 1 centimetre on 11 March 2019.

Two first days of April brought morning frosts (and clear blue skies), but then each day temperatures were inclining. Time to bid a farewell to winter weather!

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