Winter Timeline 2023/24

Predictions for the passing winter varied greatly since late summer of 2023, due to unknown impact of El Nino, bringing both negative and positive anomalies in Europe. The consensus above forecasters was probably that Poland would experience both spells of warmth and cold snaps, but all in all the winter will be normal both in terms of temperature and snowfall.

The winter was preceded by a record-warm autumn, actually the warmest since records began.

First ground frosts were observed in Warsaw on 9 October 2023 and 10 October 2023 (temperature 2 metres above ground declined only to +0.5C). In most places in Poland first frosts were reported, while hilly southern regions were covered by a thin and quickly-melting blanket of snow. The first frost was measured on 18 October 2023, exactly in line with 1991-2020 average and its incidence was the earliest since 2016.

17 November 2023
The winter timeline is initiated exactly on the same day as in 2018 and 2022.
Flurry begins in the afternoon, by late evening some of the snow lingers, despite temperature just above 0C.

18 November 2023 – 19 November 2023
Intense snow showers on and off. The white powder is heavy and melts slower than it falls. Temperature gently above freezing most of the time.

20 November 2023
It thaws out; snows melt. Drizzle and fog make the day abhorrently dark.

21 November 2023
The day starts with a freezing drizzle, which later turns into snow. No warmer than –1C. Slippery as hell.

22 November 2023

The morning is the coldest since many months, with a low of –6C at dawn. Clear, blue skies, chilly wind and day-time high of 0C.

23 November 2023
From –3C and freezing rain in the morning, to +8C, gusty wind and rain pouring sideways in the evening. Autumn is back, but not for long.

24 November 2023
From +3C in the morning to light frost in the evening. Gusty wind does not ease off.

25 November 2023 – 26 November 2023
Light winter with temperature between –2C and +1C, intermittent snow showers and some spells of sunshine.

27 November 2023 – 29 November 2023
Below freezing all the time, with very little supplies of fresh snow. Horribly chilly, but with some sunny moments.

30 November 2023
Out of the blue comes the morning snow and a short thaw in the afternoon. The air is wet. Wind chill close to –10C.

November 2023 was normal. Average temperature in Warsaw was +3.9C (vs. long-term average of +3.8C). Stats:
- month-time high: +14.3C on 2 November 2023,
- month-time low: –6.8C on 30 November 2023,
- the warmest day: 3 November 2023 (daily average of +12.0C):
- the coldest day: 29 November 2023 (daily average of –3.8C)
- number of days with snow cover: 11 (the highest since 1998),
- the highest snow depth: 3 centimetres on 18 November 2023.

 

1 December 2023 – 2 December 2023
Gloomy, freezing fog, chilly. Looks like autumn, feels like winter.

3 December 2023 – 4 December 2023
A little bit brighter and some snow has fallen, the cover is too thin to cause any disruptions, but thick enough to change the landscapes in the capital to white.

5 December 2023
One sunny, bright day, but still below freezing.

6 December 2023 – 10 December 2023
Below zero, not much, but all the time, cloudy, with occasional, yet at times intense flurry.

11 December 2023
The rain washes away three inches of snow within less than 24 hours. Gone is the winter scenery.

12 December 2023 – 14 December 2023
The ugliest type of Polish late autumn / pre-winter returns – barely above 0C, damp air, occasional drizzle or rain, fogs and not a spell of sunshine.

15 December 2023
A tiny spell of winter – just barely above freezing, snow showers, with white powder melting nearly instantly. I appreciate a few moments of sunshine.

16 December 2023 – 21 December 2023
All in all, late autumn continues, with no incidence of frost (temperatures ranging from +2C to +8C), overcast skies, frequent drizzle and intensifying wind.

22 December 2023
Zoltan winter storm brings howling chilly winds, some sunshine and a blizzard which hits Warsaw shortly before noon, brings a sudden temperature drop below freezing and some 3 centimetres of fresh, wet snow, which begins to melt soon. Temperature mostly barely above zero, but feels like –10C.

23 December 2023 – 24 December 2023
Chilly, windy, close to zero, some sunshine, some snow showers, but with a white layer not lingering for long.

25 December 2023 – 26 December 2023
Much warmer – day-time highs above +10C, windy, with frequent intense (rain) showers.

27 December 2023 – 31 December 2023
Late autumn continues. Days are brighter, precipitation rare, temperature, with exception of one night-time incidence of frost, remains single-digit positive.

December 2023 was very warm. Average temperature in Warsaw was +2.1C (vs. long-term average of –0.1C). Stats:.
- month-time high: +10.4C on 25 December 2023 (just like nearly every second year, on Christmas rather than at the beginning of the month),
- month-time low: –8.7C on 5 December 2023,
- the warmest day 25 December 2023 (daily average of +8.3C),
- the coldest day: 5 December 2023 (daily average of – 5.6C),
- number of days with snow cover: 11,
- the highest snow depth: 8 centimetres on 10 December 2023.

 

1 January 2024 – 4 January 2024
The last days of late autumn. Temperature between +2C and +8C, lots of rain showers or drizzle, not a spell of sunshine.

5 January 2024
Still dark and ugly, but the temperature turns negative.

6 January 2024
Some snow fell overnight, then some snow showers topped up the layer of white duvet during the day. At least the ground gets some cover before hard frosts.

7 January 2024
Getting lousily colder, temperature close to double-digit frost.

8 January 2024 – 10 January 2024
Bitterly cold, the coldest since January 2021 actually. Well below –10C most of the time, wind chill approaching –20C, but skies are clear blue. Long longed-for sunshine in abundance.

11 January 2024 – 13 January 2024
Mild winter, with some snow showers, grey skies most of the time and temperature fluctuating between –8C and +1C.

14 January 2024
Now a mild thaw with some snow showers.

15 January 2024
Close to the point of freezing. In the evening Warsaw is it by a snow storm. Roads and pavements are icy afterwards.

16 January 2024 – 17 January 2024
Glorious sunshine is back, with double-digit frost at night in between the two days being the price to pay. A major thaw is on the horizon.

18 January 2024 – 21 January 2024
The last (for a while) gasps of mild winter. Frosty most of the time, but with day-time highs barely above 0C, with intermittent intense deliveries of fresh snow.

22 January 2024 – 25 January 2024
The thaw is on, right away in overdrive, with sunshine and then abundant rainfall accelerating the pace at which snow disappears.

26 January 2024 – 28 January 2024
Cooler (closer to 0C), with no sunshine, but intermittent sleet or snow.

29 January 2024 – 31 January 2024
The first intimation of pre-spring, with lots of sunshine, day-time highs in excess of +7C, but also morning frosts.

January 2024 was warm. Average temperature in Warsaw was –0.2C (vs. long-term average of –1.5C). Stats:
- month-time high: +8.9C on 3 January 2024,
- month-time low: –15.1C on 9 January 2024,
- the warmest day: 4 January 2024 (daily average of +6.0C),
- the coldest day: 8 January 2024 (daily average of – 11.4C),
- number of days with snow cover: 19,
- the highest snow depth: 12 centimetres on 21 January 2024.

 

1 February 2024 – 6 February 2024
The weather resembles late March and is anything, but winter-like. Temperature between +3C and +10C, windy as hell and more rainy than sunny.

7 February 2024 – 9 February 2024
A short near-winter episode, with temperatures barely above zero and light snow (which disappears quickly).

10 February 2024 – 15 February 2024
Spring is in the air. Again, much warmer, up to low double digits, much less rain, the wind eases off.

16 February 2024 – 17 February 2024
The first proper assault of spring weather, with full sunshine on the former day and some bits of rain on the latter. Day-time highs well above +10C.

18 February 2024 – 21 February 2024
Somewhat colder, with single-digit temperature. Only the first day of the period brings clement weather, then rain prevails.

22 February 2024 – 24 February 2024
A veritable spring nears. Currently temperatures top gently above +10C, skies are overcast, rain showers come and go.

25 February 2024 – 27 February 2024
Spring explodes in full sunshine, with early afternoons bringing temperatures close to +15C (yet not record-setting).

28 February 2024 – 29 February 2024
Spring retracts a little, not as warm as in recent days, yet a whole lot warmer than it should be at this time of year, rainy.

February 2024 was the warmest since records began. Average temperature in Warsaw was +6.2C (vs. long-term average of –0.4C and the warmest until now February 1990 when temperature averaged out +4.7C). Stats:
- month-time high: +16.5C on 27 February 2024 (1.8 Celsius degrees cooler than on 25 February 2021),
- month-time low: –1.4C on 14 February 2024 (beating the previous record of the highest minimum temperature of –3.9C in February set in February 2020),
- the warmest day: 27 February 2024 (daily average of +11.1C, typical for last decade of April),
- the coldest day: 8 February 2024 (daily average of +0.4C, beating the previous record of the highest minimum average of –0.4C set on 7 February 2020, in other words this was the first February in Warsaw with no day with negative average temperature),
- number of days with snow cover: 0,
- the highest snow depth: not applicable, although we had a few snowflakes on the ground for an hour or two on 9 February 2024.

 

1 March 2024 – 3 March 2024
Was supposed to be sunny and warm, but clouds refused to roll away and temperature has barely exceeded +10C (vs. forecasts of +15C or more).

4 March 2024 – 6 March 2024
No longer with double digits, with inadequate supply of sunshine and spells of rain. The weather slowly drifts to how it should be at this time of year.

7 March 2024 – 10 March 2024
Sunshine is back. High daily temperature fluctuations, from the coldest mornings since the third decade of January to upper single digits or low double-digits in the afternoons.

11 March 2024 – 13 March 2024
Somewhat colder, yet above zero all the time, with abundant rainfall.

14 March 2024 – 16 March 2024
More sunshine, day-time highs above +10C, but the short spell of spring weather is chased away by a cold front, preceded by first spring thunderstorm.

17 March 2024
Colder, cloudier, feels like autumn for a while.

18 March 2024
Wake up to behold a light dusting of snow on cars and lawns. In snows on and off until evening, at times intensely. In the morning the snow cover lingers for two of three hours, then it melts.

19 March 2024 – 20 March 2024
The weather returns to pre-spring mode, with single-digit temperatures, ground frosts in the morning and overcast skies most of the time.

21 March 2024 – 26 March 2024
Very changeable weather, with temperature swings from –1C to +17C, frequent rain showers, one thunderstorm, bits of sunshine and some light morning frost. Conceivably, the record-early last frost could have been reported in Warsaw on 26 March (beating the previous record set on 2 April 2016).

27 March 2024 – 29 March 2024
Warmer, day-time highs of more than +15C. Had my tyres (in the old Megane) changed on 28 March 2024, which was the earliest tyre change I ever had, after 3 years of getting this done in the second decade of April.

30 March 2024
Early summer rather than early spring. Heat record for March is broken, namely +22.9C measured on 21 March 1974 is beaten with +24.4C.

31 March 2024
The record set yesterday does not last long, for the first time in history temperature in March in Warsaw exceeded +25C.

March 2024 was extremely warm. Average temperature in Warsaw was +7.0C (vs. long-term average of +3.2C, at the par with March 2014, but colder than in March 2007, when temperature averaged out +7.2C). Stats:
- month-time high: +25.3C on 31 March 2024,
- month-time low: –4.1C on 8 March 2024,
- the warmest day: 31 March 2024 (daily average of +18.6C, the warmest March day ever),
- the coldest day: 18 March 2024 (daily average of +1.0C),
- number of days with snow cover: 1,
- the highest snow depth: less than 1 centimetre on 18 March 2024.

Off to Kraków next weekend, so the next post in two weeks.