The warmest autumn since records began?

Writing the annual winter timeline has just commenced (with first snow or a first day with average temperature below 0C marking its beginning - this year yesterday), but before I foster the tradition, let’s have a look what the passing autumn was like weather-wise.

Most of the September 2023 was covered here. The last days of the month saw record-breaking (for late September) warmth (in Warsaw temperature reached almost +27C on 29 September 2023), but nowhere in Poland temperature exceeded +30C, hence the record-late appearance of heat (so far 27 September 2012) was left untouched. All in all, September 2023 in Warsaw with mean temperature of July-like +18.5C was warmer by 4.5 Celsius degrees than 1991-2020 average and the warmest since records began, beating the previous-warmest September 1892 by 2 degrees.

October had a summer-like beginning, with temperature topping at +25.8C on 3 October 2023 in Warsaw. The reading was mere 0.1 Celsius degrees short of the outstanding October-time high for the capital of Poland (+25.9C measured on 5 October 1966). On the same day a country-wide October heat record was set. In Legnica in south-western Poland temperature reached +29.3C. Then the weather got a kind of changeable – after a few more nicely warm days, temperature dropped and we had first incidences of ground frost. It got warmer in the second decade of the month, however +22.6C measured on 14 October 2023 does not stack up against +24.4C measured on the same day 4 years earlier. Near the end of the second decade of the month morning frost haunted the capital of my homeland twice, but then temperature drifted higher and the end of the month was quite balmy, with two last days bringing day-time highs close to +18C (not utterly impressive if the records tell me we had +19.0C on 28 October 2022, +19.8C on 27 October 2019 and +21.5C on 30 October 2018). The entire month was +2.3C warmer than long-term average in Warsaw (+8.7C) and ranked among ten warmest October since records began, but still colder than in 2022 or 2019.

The first days of November 2023 seemed relatively warm, yet the deviation from the long-term average was not impressive (mere 3 Celsius degrees). Month-time high of +14.3C reported on 2 November 2023 was lower than the average (1991 – 2020) month-time high for that month (+14.8C) and well below +15.5C on 8 November 2022, +16.0C on 3 November 2020, +16.5C on 4 November 2019 or record-high +19.2C on November 2018. In the second decade of the month weather entered the gloomy pre-winter mode and temperatures got closer to typical long-term readings. This weekend Warsaw is tacking a sudden, yet short-lasting onslaught of winter, which is expected to give way to late autumn tomorrow.

Will autumn 2023 go down as the warmest ever in Warsaw? Given how warm September 2023 and October 2023 were, even with November 2023 exactly at the par with long-term average (+3.8C), it would beat the warmest until now autumn 2006 (+10.8C) by over 0.1 Celsius degree (which is quite much).

Less is more - book review

I sadly cannot recall how I have come across the book by Jason Hickel. Most probably via a mention of it in a newspaper article. As with most books I spot, I ordered it in a local library and waited my turn to borrow it.

The work starts off with analogy to early days of the coronavirus pandemic when the mankind subjugated to strict lockdown regimes in the face of peril. The government-imposed discipline was meant to prove humans can sacrifice to fend off a disaster. The author has forgotten the adherence to stringent social distancing rules was short-lasting and during the next waves of the virus in late 2020 and early 2021 several deaths could have been put down to a lockdown fatigue.

Humans can make big, but short-lasting sacrifices, while tacking the global warming is a long-distance issue which has to prompt the western world to rethink its priorities. Actually, each and every area of life will need to affected: housing, travelling, eating, manufacturing, agriculture, consuming. As the author points out, life of upper classes in rich countries ought to be turned upside down, not to avoid a cataclysm, but just to diminish its scale.

The book espouses a wide criticism of GDP growth as a measure of development and as an overriding goal in capitalism. I share the view GDP is a grossly imperfect indicator of economic well-being, with a tiny correlation with happiness and life quality, but have become fed up with the obsession of the evil capitalism. Yes, free market is imperfect, yet nobody has come up with any sensible alternative so far.

The observation the author illustrates and which I share is that we have to continually work more to afford to have needs met and the more we work, the shorter of time we are. It starts with a basic need which is the roof over one's head. Does not matter whether you buy it or rent it, the cost in relation to your annual wage is several times higher than a few decades ago. You have to then work more you pay your landlord or to make mortgage repayments. If you need to work more, you lack time to cook, clean your house, etc., therefore you decide to farm it out and need to work more to pay for the outsourcing. Mr Hickel puts forward working less and doing more with one's own hands, the idea which takes my fancy as an alternative to a treadmill people around me are in.

Being mindful how adverse consequences of climate changes are, we agree limitations to the western world's current lifestyle are justified. But can they be imposed by governments or should they be rather encouraged or discouraged? Prohibitions are associated with authoritarian or totalitarian regimes, while financial benefits and fines more delicately indicate what is desirable. 

Such reasoning naturally leads to a question about limits of personal liberties. Traditionally, they have been constrained by other people's freedom and well-being. The impending climate catastrophe prompts us to revise it and broaden to the planet's well-being.

Humans as a mass by nature are defiant rather than obedient. If something if forbidden, defiant humans are more tempted to do this, therefore I suppose a carrot would work better than a stick. The problem is we have probably run out of time to play with carrots and sticks, when the earth is getting increasingly hotter.

Michael warned me the book's purport was leftist and indeed, a radical angle was clearly felt. I believe a more moderate language could be more effective in persuading middle-of-the-road readers to revise their lifestyle. Mr Hickel with his leftist tilt sadly lacks such power and by many will be labelled as left-wing lunatic.

The worst human trait, redefined

More than a decade ago, I claimed unreliability is a human trait I detest the most. Although I have not changed my mind about that one, today what winds me up much more is procrastination, being often one step ahead of the unreliability.

The word, translated nearly literally into Polish as prokrastynacja (in my books zwlekactwo), has made it big with psychologists and those who explore whys and wherefores of the human nature. Some define it as a problem, others as indispensable part of being good enough and letting up when necessary. I hold the view it is a shortcoming which makes my hackles rise and which humans ought to try to overcome.

When I am to set about doing something, no matter if ordered by somebody or off my own bat, I either move on without further ado or plan the onset of the activity for a defined moment in the future when circumstances are likely to permit. I dislike having at the back of my head some overdue stuff waits to be sorted out. Besides, not putting back doing things is a part of fairness towards fellow people and myself.

But most people do not handle it my way. I have identified four reasons why humans tend do delay what they are meant to do.
Firstly, I put it down to overt laziness (does not need extra commenting I believe).
Secondly, for some individuals "taking their time" is a part of their mindset and their lack of hurry extends into procrastination. Alternatively some humans are excited by doing things at eleventh hour and feel most motivated when a deadline pushes them.
Thirdly, it is a matter of being overwhelmed with other duties or having different priorities. This is a sign of our times, featured with constant overload.
Fourtly, and I believe this reason is underappreciated, the delay driver is a fear of taking a wrong decision or making a wrong step - by proscrastinating, people allow themselves to spend more time on analysis (sometimes leading up to a paralysis).

I hazard a guess losers tend to procrastinate. Opportunities in life have to be chased. Once they come up, decisiveness and quick reaction let humans grab them and get ahead.

Post-election fears

The final outcome of the election was actually above expectations, yet still below some hopes. Formally, PiS won the plebiscite, but effectively by getting 3.96 million fewer votes than 3 committees of the democratic opposition, it lost 41 seats in the lower house in the parliament in comparison to their result after the election in 2019. With 194 out of 460 seats, PiS now stands no chance to wield power, as the united opposition has 248 deputies in total.

For the time being PiSites intend to step down democratically, but with one attempt to call the government by the party which won the election, the moment Tusk and company take charge of Poland will likely be put back by a few weeks, probably until pre-Christmas days. Although voters of the outgoing ruling party are livid, there no serious intention to dispute the election results as Donald Trump's supporters breaking into Capitol building on 6 January 2021 did.

Over the past 8 years, we had Zjednoczona Prawica (formally a coalition of three parties which won the elections as one committee) in power stand-alone, not needing alliance with any other party to keep the majority. Soon we will have a government made up of three committees, from seven political groupings. Their common denominator is commitment to liberal democracy, rule of law and pro-European stance. Their agendas vary in several social and economic issues. Forming a long-lasting ruling coalition will involve a lot of compromising.

The new government will be in a difficult position finance-wise. Spending spree was in overdrive and people have got accustomed to being given gifts (financed from taxes they pay). Confronted with a prospect of a mammoth budget deficit in 2024 they will face uneasy decisions whether to extend some programmes (espiecially anti-inflation shield).

I basically don't expect much from the new government. I have merely four basic wishes to those I have given a mandate to run my country.

Firstly, run public finances prudently and long-sightedly.

Secondly, reinstate law and order in public institutions mangled by PiS, but do so without violating the law.

Thirdly, call people responsible for wrongdoing to account. So much evil has been done in last 8 years, so those guilty of it must not escape punishment. When doing so, act within the boundaries of law and avoid a revenge.

Fourthly, restore good relationships with our partners in the EU and unlock the flow of money from the National Recovery Plan. Poland badly needs it.

I realise knocking PiS out of power will not solve all problems instantly. It is just a beginning of a long walk towards a recovery.

I fear the nascent coalition will be fragile, not only due to divergent agendas of particular groupings, but also because personal ambitions of specific politicians.

The coming months will put political maturity of the democratic opposition's leaders to the test. Poland has been freed up from the hands of the quasi-authoritarian regimes. Poles have pinned hopes in them and they must not waste it by not seeing further than ends of their noses.

The reshuffle in the parliament has not coincided with a presidential election. Andrzej Duda's tenure ends in August 2025, but by that time he might be a stumbling block for attempts to reverse the harms done by PiS. The opposition, even with Konfederosja, is short of 60% tally required to reject a presidential veto.

I am keeping fingers crossed for the newly elected parliamentary majority, but will be reviewing them critically if they deserve.

Italy, Campania, late summer

Back in Poland (since two weeks) from my fourth trip to Italy in my life (I visited the country in September 2017, October 2021, August / September 2022), this time spent with my girlfriend, her friends and their son. This was my first holiday foray longer than 10 days since spending nearly a fortnight in a sanatory in June 2019, however given what has been going on at work, the all-out logout was exactly what I needed.

For the first time in my life I flew somewhere from Modlin. Getting there and out of there is a nuisance, yet I at least departures and arrivals are more likely to be on time (no queues of aircrafts) and the luggage claim is reasonably quick. But next time I will think twice before saving on a distant airport (in this case opting for Modlin reduced the cost of the holidays by nearly PLN 1,000 per person).

Weather-wise, last week of September and first week of October is a perfect time for visiting the Italian province with capital in Naples. Just like in most parts of Europe, temperature in Italy wasabove long-term averages, hence we enjoyed over +25C in afternoons (up to +30C with staggeringly high air humidity), but evenings and nights gave relief from the heat. The sea temperature was around +24C, so swimming was in order on most days.

Our holiday mode was to spend one day sightseeing and then one day on a beach or wandering around. We stayed at Nerano, a relatively quite coastal village, not far from most attractions of the legendary Amalfi coast.

To the right - a view on beaches in Sorrento. Note the cliffs, the Italian architecture and azure skies. The venue has its charm, but you also need to have stamina to walk up and down.

The coast of Campania is rocky and altitude rises quickly as you move away from the sea. The view from the town of Ravello into another town Minori is a breathtaking illustration thereof.

The crater snapped is the inside the dormant Vesuvio. As long as the volcano does not wake up, it is open for tourists. Was definitely worthing climbing up there to see for the first time in my life a piece of nature which nearly 2,000 years ago sent doom on the nearby town of Pompei...

... the ruins of which are also a fascinating piece of heritage. The hot lava has presered well the brick walls, so most structure (except for roofs) survived the eruption and having not been destroyed thereafter, bear testimony to the disaster. Note the volcano in the background.

If you once visit the area, you will definitely want to take a ferry trip to Capri. Do so just not to regret, but keep in mind the posh island is overrated and infuriatingly crowded. Still, some sights are truly enchanting.

From Nerano, we could walk to a nearby town of Termini to watch the sun go down into the Tirrenian sea. The price to pay for such view was the ascent of one mile with slope above 10% (200 metres different in altitude). The island behind the satellite dish is Capri.

If you want to pop over to towns on Amalfi coast, do not think of reaching them by car. A boat is much more practical and offers splendid views of coastal areas. The price for a day-long trip was a reasonable EUR 50 per passenger. To town on the picture is Amalfi (overcrowded and expensive).

The other, much prettier town on the coast of Campania is Positano, also too popular with tourists and horrifcally expensive, but if you are fit enough to roam around the hilly area, eye-pleasing views will compensate your for sweating uphill.

When selecting one shot from Naples I deliberately picked the one taken outside the tourist area, but still less than two miles from the very centre. The photo could have been taken in a post-soviet town and only the lack of Lada cars parked outside hints the shot comes from a civilised world.

Now time for some hints for travellers...

Moving around Campania is most effective by car (buses run very rarely, railway tracks cannot be even built cheaply in such hilly areas), which takes a bit if a skill. Roads are narrow, winding at times steep and locals drive like lunatics. Ensure you buy a full insurance, since risk of returning a car with a scrape is material.

Those fond of eating will take delight in local cuisine. I am far from being a foodie, yet recommend going to local eateries or bars, being on the market for decades, if you want a tasty and decently priced meal.

Large differences in altitude mean you need to be quite healthy and fit to walk a lot there, but those forced to lead sedentary lifestyle, yet longing for exercising, will appreciate the undulating Campanian landscapes.

The area I holiday in has its charm and I would recommend it to be visited, yet... I would not come back, as there are definitely many more interesing places to be discovered.

The Polish parliamentary election in 2023

I hardly can believe this has all happened.

The campaign by the end of September was drab and lacklustre. PiS was bound to win, yet not to reap the majority of seats in the lower house. Five parties or less were about to cross the score threshold, with Trzecia Droga being the most likely to drop off.

On 1 October hundreds of thousands (or over a million) people marched through the streets of Warsaw, rallying to show a middle finger to the ruling party. From that day the campaign grew apace. Petrol stations were running out of underpriced fuel suddenly became a symbol of how PiS wanted to buy off voters. I presume the march and the fuel crisis have taken a bit off wind of the ruling party’s sails. In polls PiS scored some 5 percentage points more than Koalicja Obywatelska being the main grouping in the opposition.

The only country-wide debate in this campaign was hosted by the government-controlled propagandist television. Both the current prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki and opposition’s leader Donald Tusk did not fare well during the squabble, but the ultimate winner of the debate turned out to be Szymon Hołownia, a co-leader Trzecia Droga. With his superb performance he at least secured a score well in excess of 8% (being a parliament entry threshold for coalitions).

The days in the run-up to the election were quite eventful. All in all we observed a scaremongering campaign of two main parties trying to defame one another, rather than present their agenda for the coming years.

The last polls before the election-time silence indicated PiS would win the vote, however even with Konfederosja they would not secure majority in the lower house of the parliament.

A few weeks ago I planned to vote somewhere in provincial Poland. Having read of voting tourism being a form of gambling, I ditched the idea and eventually cast my ballot in the local polling station.

In the afternoon, an X (formerly Twitter) screening mode went on. Leaking exit polls results indicated PiS was to win the election, some 4 – 5 percentage points ahead of KO. The proportion remained unchanged until polling stations were being closed (or queues outside them cut off).

Waiting for the story to unfold. Due to record-high turnout of 72.9% the actual results might deviate from the exit polls, but the winner and the runner-up are unlikely to swap their position. The major question mark is the score of Konfederosja, in the exit poll at mere 6.2%, well below forecasts. My calculations shows even if the right-wing wackos drop off, PiS will still be some 20 seats short of majority.

I would not rule out an early election in a few months…

September heat

The recent wave of anomalous heat is the second such event in Poland in 2023, however much less impressive than New Year's Day when temperature in Warsaw topped at +18.9C, breaking a previous country-wide record by 2 Celsius degrees and setting a level which will not be beaten for years, despite the global warming. On the first day of 2023 temperature was some 15 Celsius degrees higher than long-term average for that day, while recently the positive anomaly reached "mere" 8 Celsius degrees.

Summer months of 2023 were the hottest on earth since records began, but Poland was not as badly affected by heat as southern Europe, with summer-time high in Warsaw of +34.3C reported on 15 August 2023.

Early days of September were quite normal temperature-wise. Heat came in on 6 September 2023 - from that day on day-time highs exceeded +26C. A veritable heat wave haunted Warsaw at the beginning of the second decade of September, with day-time highs above +28C on the 11th and 12th day of the month, then hitting +30.4C on 13 September 2023. It was the second-latest incidence of heat (upał, defined as maximum temperature exceeding +30C) the capital of Poland, not far from beating the record set on 14 September 1951.

Next days brought relief from the sultry air, but on 17 September 2023 and 18 September 2023 the African air struck again, though not so spectalularly, with +28C in the afternoon on the latter day.

On the two first days of the third decade of September the heat was even less intense, with temperature topping +26C and azure blue skies.

The last week of the month is to bring another spell of abnormal warmth, with day-time highs expected to reach around +25C in Warsaw.

The September heat has not been unusuaul in recent years, as I wrote commenting Michael's post. I can add on top the third decade of September also brought temperatues well above +25C - such was the case in 2003.

On 11 September 2021 temperature topped at +26.0C - not much cooler.

In 2020 heat continued much longer, with month-time high of +28.7C on 16 September.

In 2018 temperature topped above +28C on 12 September and on 20 September.

In 2016 day-time highs above +29C were recorded for 4 days in a row from 9 September to 12 September.

On 17 September 2015 temperature reached +29.9C.

From 12 September 2014 to 14 September 2014 maximum readouts exceeded +26C.

Finally, on 11 September 2012 we had heat (upał) in Warsaw (+30.4C).

The heat wave has been so prolonged that it is now more than sure September 2023 will be the warmest since records began in Poland, with positive deviation from the mean reaching even 4 Celsius degrees. In Warsaw where average temperature for September is +14.0C (1991-2020), it will be warmer than in 1892 (+16.5C), 1967 and 2016 (both +16.4C).

The Warsaw's record of the latest heat is unlikely to be beaten, but the countrywide one, set on 27 September 2012, does stand such chance to be broken. In Warsaw I see a major chance of beating the record of the highest mimimum temperature (currently +7.0C recorded in September 2006) and a tiny chance of setting a new record of maximum temperature in October (currently +25.9C set on 5 October 1966).

Since at this time of year days are shorter, evenings, nights and morning are markedly colder, September heat is easy to endure, as you can take shelter from it indoors if you cool it down at night, without having to recourse to air-conditioning. But those masses of air flowed in July, we would have suffered...

The marvellous spell of late summer definitely lifts spirits, but in fact there is no reason to be cheerful, as the global warming leaves its stamp on us again.

Post written from the smartphone, while travelling in business.

Off to Italy for 12 days tomorrow, where according to the forecasts, I am likely to experience temperatures from +20C to +26C and full sunshine over the entire stay. Photo catch-up due on 22 October 2023, while a week earlier is the election day.

A tram to Wilanów

Railway public transport, given all circumstances, is a future of modern cities. Warsaw finishes construction of its second underground line, but in the recent quarters focused much on developing a network of overground rail connections. One of such links is the tram track running to the posh district of Wilanów.

Frankly speaking, I have never understood why the location was so desirable among the capital’s middle class. The estate is reasonably good-looking, however buildings are too close to one another and the commute to the city centre, regardless of means of transport used, takes currently around an hour. For a comparison, a door-to-door journey to Rondo Dmowskiego from my dwelling takes some 35 minutes.

Nevertheless, the classy housing estate occupies swathes of land which 30 years ago were endless meadows. Needless to say infrastructure lagged behind residential developments. The city authorities for years had promised a tram connection and a few quarters ago the plans began turning into reality.

On 11 September, having knocked off relatively early (i.e. not doing overtime) I jumped on my bike and cycled to the neighbouring district to inspect the progress of work. As I was leaving home, temperature was still above +25C. More on the remarkable September heat next week.

Ursynów has great cycling infrastructure, so without having to use a pavement nor a road, I reach the intersection of al. Rzecz-pospolitej and ul. Branickiego. Preparatory works have begun here, but I see no track of a future terminues, which most likely will be located next to Medicover hospital at the southern end of al. Rzeczpospolitej.

For the period of construction, al. Rzecz-pospolitej has lost the status of a dual carriageway and has been narrowed to one lane in each direction. One can make out tram tracks will run between the southbound and the northbound road.

Somewhat closer to al. Wilanowska, there are sections where tracks have been already laid. Note the façade of a typical residential building, with shops on ground level. Currently, Wilanów is virtually self-sufficient, with facilities meeting needs of the upper-middle class located next to the district’s throughfares.

I pass the dug-up intersection of al. Wilanowska and ul. Sobieskiego, glad I do not have to cross this area regularly. Ul. Sobieskiego, once having three lanes in each direction, then two regular lanes and a bus lane, currently has only one lane per direction. Oddly enough during late rush hour on a school day the traffic jams were not heavy, while traffic on a cycling path running parallel to the street was quite dense.

Approaching ul. Bonifacego in Stegny, I realise the progress of works is very uneven and wonder what is behind the difference in pace of construction on different sections. Note a family in front of me – good to see parents teach children to move in a healthy and environment-friendly manner.

The last shot taken from the intersection of ul. Sobieskiego and ul. Bonifacego. Staring at the skyline of Warsaw’s skyscrapers and a pedestrian footpath above ul. Sobieskiego. Warsaw slowly gives up on them and on underground passages, as convenience of motorists is no longer a priority. The elderly, disabled, parents with prams – they should soon have the obstacles in moving around removed altogether.

Setting the sliders

Inspired by a cycle of eight "Setting the sliders" notes dated March 2011, by Michael.

Life is an endless quest for a balance. As part of the nature, humans naturally search for it. The most popular type of balance these days is the work-life balance, being a theoretical response to ruthless corporations exploiting their staff much longer than during customary nine-to-five cycles. The corporations claim to foster the work-life balance, but since their declarations are hollow, the EU institutions have attempted to regulate it. Then the corporations will aim to circumvent those laws. Well, it is a topic for a separate post...

In this one I struggle to find trade-offs in manifold areas of life.

Getting involved in a romantic relationship, one gives up on a part of their independence. Being with some means minding their feelings and needs and undertaking commitments towards a life companion. This takes striving, but should not take bending over backwards. People pair up since benefits of being together outweigh nuisances of making concessions. I believe one should strike a balance between their autonomy as an individual and some indispensable sacrifices.

A part of turning an adult is taking responsibility for one's deeds and life. Psychologists posit those contraventing such scheme are afflicted by Peter Pan syndrome, attributed usually to males who refuse to grow up and farewell the carefree days of childhood. For me being responsible is a crucial part of adulthood and proves a man's maturity. Nevertheless, carefree moments ought to be pursued in life and cherished, bearing in mind life is not a bed of roses.

The above brings to mind the idiom "business before pleasure", which sadly has no equivalent in Polish. As a child, not prompted by my parents, after coming from school I firstly did my homework and then played. An adult life involves duties and doing them with humility is a part of our existence. With affluence, people tend to work more to shift the most mundane duties to others. The growing popularity of farming out house cleaning or ordering food catering boxes instead of cooking confirms such trend. But is it just convenience and making use of one's money to enhance the comfort of life, or... shunning duties?

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail" - some say. Preparing involves planning and planning clashes with spontainety. Spontainety symbolises carefree life, lack of limitations and boundaries. Should we give on spotainety altogether? Do not dare to do so, don't let your daily routine underwhelm you, let in the element of thrill to your life, but whatever you do, do it prudently and mind the outcome.

Unless your ancestors were wealthy and thrifty, you have to work to earn a livelihood. Your wage is usually a combination of education, skills, luck, but not only. A correlation between how hard you work and financial gains maybe is not very strong, yet apparently positive. Having spent over 13 years in the corporate reality, I observe the propensity to work harder than others declines with age. This is perfectly in line with the curve of earnings, increasing with years of experience, rising affluence (a marginal utility of each next unit of income is lower), human body's lower tolerance for intensive working, but particularly with priorities changing over lifetime. The more you have accumulated, the more you cherish the time spent with family, friends, physical activity or fostering hobbies.

If you earn little, most likely your have to watch every penny before spending and barely make ends meet. When your income rises, you might spend more, but not necessarily have to. Day-to-day survival gives way to planning and long-term goals. One has to make a choice what portion on the current income to consume and how much to aside for the future and with what purpose in mind. Saving for the very sake of saving and spending for a very sake of spending are both no good. Both spending and saving (which means not just putting aside money, but looking for ways for paying less for something) deserve a wise, emotion-free approach.

While interacting with other humans one makes mistakes. A noble man can admit their mistakes and, if possible, make up for them. A noble man's trait is modesty too. Boasting of one's accomplishments outside the corporate world is not the most commendable method of underlining one's presence. A prudent man also knows their limitations and does not overestimate their skills. Humility then is a great virtue I believe, the one which helps one attain long-term goals.

Lofty ideas of a perfect world are cruelly confronted with imperfect reality. Life involves compromising, yet it should have some limits, with moral principals (universal or subjective) setting boundary of how far can we give up on ideal solutions we long for. Not every price is worth paying, but freeriding as sneaking through life without effort is not worthwhile too.

No extreme is good. Keep it in mind when making your daily choices, but also when going to the polls in five weeks...

Pre-election gloom

As the end of the current parliament term draws near, I realise Poles have endured nearly 8 years of PiS in power. I also realise the period covers almost a half of my formal adulthood. As they were winning the election in October 2015, I was 27, single, rank-and-file analyst and still lived with my parents in Nowa Iwiczna. As of now I am in the third serious relationship since then, after two promotions, residing in my own flat in Ursynów – basically except for being 8 years older, I seem better off. A pity in many realms Poland is worse off or made steps back in development.

In early years of PiS in power people would take to the streets in masses to stand up for democratic principles. With time, as the marches did not undermine the unfettered authority of the ruling party, the intensity of street demonstrations faded. There were some spurts, as the protest against rigorous pro-life law changes in October 2020, a stay-in-the-EU march in October 2021 – which I both attended. This year I did not take part in the opposition’s march on 4 June (I was in Wisła) and on account of holidaying in Italy I will not join the crowds on the streets of Warsaw on 1 October, two weeks before the election.

Fatigue is a natural form of adjustment to how my country is being slowly demolished. Just like with any disruptive situation – the first reaction is a shock (recall the examples of COVID-19 outbreak in March 2020 or the invasion to Ukraine in February 2022) then the public get accustomed to what is going on, event if this involves hundreds of deaths daily. PiS in power does not kill humans, but in most Poles it eradicated the hope that the country might be run in a better way.

The current polls indicate PiS is going to win the election, but very few surveys give the party a majority of seats in the lower house of the parliament. The three parties of the democratic opposition, provided they all (hopefully) pass the parliament entry threshold, are also unlikely to get the majority. This means Konfederacja, the far-right-wind freak grouping currently rising to become the third player in the Polish politics, will be in a position to tip the scales during the key votes in the parliament. As Konfederosja declares to be an anti-systemic creature, it currently does not intend to enter a coalition with anyone, which looms a post-election stand-off and a possibility of next parliamentary election called in early 2024.

This year the election will be accompanied by a ludicrous referendum, which actually will be a barometer of support to the current government. As the opposition urges its electorate to boycott the plebiscite by refusing the to take the referendum card (otherwise a voter boosts turnout), the vote will effectively not be confidential. Since 50% turnout will not be achieved, I advise if opposition’s voters fear reactions of the communities in provincial polling stations, they should take the referendum cards – to cast a vote in line with one’s conscience is more important that boycotting the plebiscite.

The election will also not be equal. Numbers of lower house deputies elected from specific constituencies has not been revised since 2011. Over that time the number of voters in cities increased, so they are under-represented in the lower house, while in provincial Poland – decreased. This might mean a few more seats for PiS, much more popular far from big cities. The fix for it for a voters from Warsaw will be to pick up a certificate entitling to vote anywhere in Poland, not just in your local polling station. So on 15 October quite probably I will not be proudly boosting the turnout in Ursynów, but will venture to a place where my vote will have a bigger weight than I Warsaw.

Those more involved might become scrutineers, overseeing the voting and vote counting in polling stations.

The campaign is going to kick off for good after this weekend, with the end of school holidays. I fear it will be predictable, lacklustre and full of below-the-belt blows dealt by the ruling party. I suppose the outcome might be impacted by an event on the home straight, less than a week before the vote. I also keep fingers crossed for bad weather. In provincial Poland fewer people might take the trouble to go to polling stations, while inhabitants of big cities will not venture beyond town to make use of the last gasps of late summer and will not risk skipping their civic duty.