Sunday, 24 November 2019

Cable TV

Cable TV and broadband internet connection were the last missing stuff in the flat, over half a year after moving in. In the spring and summer months, when outdoor beckoned and time spent indoor in the evenings and over weekends was sparse, my low demand for such services was giving an excuse to put back installation. Hence I have got my act together to fix it just recently.

After a research done over a year ago I thought I would opt for Vectra, which was the previous owner’s operator, yet on the home straight I have taken the trouble to compare pricing of plans, content of packages and technical capacities and I have changed my mind to eventually choose UPC. The crucial factor, with similar prices of TV + Internet plans (same cost of PLN 80 per month) and similar content thereof, was technical advantage of UPC, whose CI+ modules (I refused to have another box and another remote control) are compatible with most new TV sets. On top, the operator puts on its website a list of certified TV models.

The very installation, though booked and specified in the e-mail sent UPC sales rep over 2 weeks in advance, has not gone smoothly. I endured three visits over one day. At first attempt a technician came with a decoder rather than with a CI+ module. At second attempt another technician turned up without documents. At third attempt all went fine, except for the way he installed (or rather hung loose) antenna socket in the wall (not his duty) – this had to be mended by me a few days later, upon borrowing a driller from my father (what’s the point of having my own if use it 2 o 3 times a year?).

While I saved on a few months of not paying at all for the TV + Internet (I used a data package from my company smartphone via Wi-Fi router or fell back on pre-paid LTE), my monthly rate is now higher (some PLN 20 per month) than it would be, had I contracted the service in a few months ago. Telecommunication services are one of those whose prices have risen markedly in 2019.

A broadband Internet is a must, especially if you want to make the most of video / audio contents (mere Youtube offers several full films or series for free) available online, but also to pursue home office if necessary. Benefits of possessing the cable TV are questionable. I over the recent 3 weeks I watched a few documentaries, films or TVN24 evening programs but nothing more.

Choosing a TV (I purchased 43-inch plain-vanilla, yet UPC-compatible LG for PLN 1,400) has made me realise what stride has been made technology-wise. The relatively inexpensive (yet prices 2 times higher than the simplest) TV set combines functions of a TV, a decoder, a video player / recorder and a computer (Internet browser built it). One thing I need to explore is Netflix which has a dedicated button on the remote control. But since I have not had an account on my computer, odds I get to grips with it before year-end are miniscule.

Film-wise, last Wednesday I went to a cinema to see “Boże Ciało” before it is withdrawn from the silver screens. I do not feel like reviewing it; the film deserves watching, but it has left me numb in a chair…

Sunday, 17 November 2019

The post-election landscape

The opposition’s victory in the Senate election is a combination of (a stroke of) luck and (leaders’) judgement. The strategy to run united in most constituencies has paid off and so far has stood the test of time. PiS, despite numerous attempts to buy off upper house deputies has not managed to undercut the frail (one seat) majority (this does not mean we can be confident no traitor flees the camp of anti-PiS in coming months). The inability of the ruling party to come to terms with the result of the election proves its latent anti-democratic character, while the track record of senators from KO, Lewica and PSL proves the selection of candidates was careful.

The big test for the unity of the ruling coalition (remember PiS has created a government together with its allies from Solidarna Polska and Porozumienie). The latter grouping, whose leader is Mr Gowin, disapproves of the government’s plan to scrap the limit of 30 average salaries above which social security contributions are no longer charged (to avert payments of sky-high pensions in decades). The desperate endeavour to raise more money to the 2020 budget at the expense of next generations is widely criticised, yet no one can be confident whether Mr Gowin finally gives in, or what stance Lewica takes on it (they are about to announce their strategy tomorrow). While Mr Gowin has track record for voting for law he was unhappy with, Lewica has a test to pass to prove they are a responsible, forward-looking leftist party. Sufficient would be their proposal to bring in another tax bracket for the richest (tax progression is a natural element of a leftist agenda) and firm refusal to support solutions which create huge obligations in decades to come.

Disclaimer: the author is materially affected by the “30 wages limit”, hence he refrains from commenting any further on the issue.

Another test for the opposition is the presidential election, due in six months. Donald Tusk has already dispelled all doubts and has quit the fight for presidency. Some say, probably rightly, he fears a defeat with a mediocre incumbent president which is highly probably due to strong negative electorate Mr Tusk has on account of his unpopular decisions. I believe the move is wise and boosts changes to change the resident of the presidential palace.

From the 3 oppositional parties only PSL has chosen their candidate. In the first round I would not vote for Mr Kosiniak-Kamysz, as his views, especially social ones, do not square with mine.

Lewica keeps struggling to find a candidate (who will rather be a male), yet among their core politicians I do not see any charismatic character who would be capable of making it to the run-off.

Koalicja Obywatelska, with clear declaration of Mr Tusk now is about hold an internal election and let its member choose the most suitable runner. Two candidacies which are now present in the social media are Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska and Radosław Sikorski. The former lacks charisma and drive to take part in the difficult race in which blows below the belt will be frequent. The latter, as a minister is PiS government in 2005-2006 enchanted with late president Lech Kaczyński, lacks strong anti-PiS credentials which seem necessary to garner votes of leftist voters who must not stay at homes during the run-off if Mr Duda’s re-election is to be averted.

In May 2020 I will end up, again, voting for the lesser of two evils.

Sunday, 10 November 2019

For the sake of safety…

Sunday, 20 October, early afternoon, the other end of Warsaw. A 33-year-old man with his wife and child cross ul. Sokratesa to get to a nearby playground. The man is killed by a 31-year-old male, driving 130 kmph in his orange BMW. A dashboard camera from a city bus recorded the tragedy (0:15).

 
The accident has sparked off a debate how to improve safety on Warsaw’s roads, especially pedestrians’ safety, to take the extra mile to reduce the number of fatalities in the capital. The town hall officials have come up with setting up “30 kmph zones” across town, which stirred uproar with motorists.

The tragedy is incontestable, however I believe the discussion on exact solutions aimed at improving road safety should be freed from emotional overtone, inevitable in such circumstances. Especially bearing in mind no regulations will prohibit road hogs behind wheels of too powerful vehicles from speeding.

The town hall has compiled a list of dangerous streets in Warsaw where traffic ought to be slowed down. One of them is ul. Stryjeńskich in Ursynów, especially its section between ul. Belgradzka and ul. Przy Bażantarni (photo on the front cover of the most recent “Passa” local newspaper) where drivers dare to speed up to even 80 kmph.


Oddly enough, in 2016 civic budget an initiative to narrow the street down from 4 to 2 lanes in both directions and mark off cycling paths was one of the winning ones. Soon later, the citizens with support of the district’s mayor have dashed the plan.

Is the street dangerous? I witnessed the last accident there last month, when 3 cars collided and some of the passengers were injured, but this was the only collision since I moved in. The enquiry to the search engine reveals a serious accident is reported on the aforementioned section of ul. Stryjeńskich on average once a year, however pedestrians were involved in none of the accidents.

Recently mayor of Ursynów has put forward installing speed bumps to slow down the traffic. The idea has taken nearly no one’s fancy, including local residents (who say more systemic solutions ought to be considered) and the City Road Authority (reminding ul. Stryjeńskich is a G-category road, i.e. a main road / thoroughfare, therefore it is not permitted to install speed bumps there, at least without changing the road’s status).

I believe there are several better ways of calming down the traffic, with narrowing down lanes as the primary one. If a lane is narrower, a driver naturally reduces speed to stick onto the lane. As lanes are narrower, the northbound and southbound lanes should finally be separated and junctions with minor roads (ul. Jaworowa, ul. Małej Łąki) properly marked.

Traffic should definitely be slower, yet it should be smooth. A speed bump reducing temporarily speed to 30 kmph means motorist would decelerate ahead of it and accelerate after it. Everyone who has some notion about driving knows a vehicle consumes more fuel when it accelerates and less when it moves at steady speed. So what ought to be done on major roads is adjusting them to lower, yet reasonable steady speeds rather than putting on the table poorly analysed solutions on the spur of the moment.

Looking forward to seeing no more accidents on this stretch of ul. Stryjeńskich.

Sunday, 3 November 2019

A balmy October


Folk sayings tell after a hot summer comes a harsh winter. While the coming winter is expected to be one of the mildest ever, autumn in 2019 stands a chance to be one of the warmest ever, also after the very warm October.

This year’s summer, especially the record-hot June has made be pondered upon the detrimental effects of the global warming, which make themselves felt dreadfully in summer months. A heat wave in June, July or August is a misery, but in October… Paradoxically over a fortnight long influx of Saharian air over Poland has generally been appreciated as the advent of grey, chilly autumn has been put back.

After two weeks of unusual warmth one could wonder whether October 2019 would go down as the warmest in the history. Had the entire month been as warm as its second decade and first seven days of its third decade, it would have come out record-hot. However because of the two cold spells, one in the first decade, the other in the last days of the month, it ranked as third-warmest, with average temperature of +11.2C. It was much warmer in October 1907 (+12.9C) and in October 2000 (+11.6C). Plus the recent October was the third one in a row with double-digit average temperature.

Some statistics, since I adore to back all my assertions with numbers:
- month-time high: +24.3C on 14 October 2019 (short of heat record in October for Warsaw, +25.9C set on 5 October 1966),
- month-time low: -1.8C on 31 October 2019,
- the warmest day: 13 October 2019, on the election day the daily temperature averaged out +17.1C, as warm as usually in the third decade of August,
- the coldest day: 31 October 2019, mean temperature of only +2.7C, typical for second decade of November…

On 14 October I took a day off to make the most of the summer-like warmth and to cool down after the election. After a lunch at noon, I took a bike for a 35-kilometre ride. To the right, 2 p.m., temperature peaks at +24C, plenty of sunshine. Few people on the western bank of Vistula, those who could be found there roamed around or sunbathed. Of note is the fact exactly 10 years earlier, on 14 October 2009, Warsaw was hit by snow.

Looking south, spans which will carry the Southern Bypass of Warsaw over Vistula. The delay in works has reached around one year and the entire bypass stands a chance to be completed nor earlier than in mid-2021. By that time the southern part of Ursynów will need to endure the nearly constant road congestion which actually helps me drive as little as I can (4,500 kilometres driven since moving in, which includes three long trips of approximately 2,500 kilometres in total which means I have reduced around-town mid-distance driving to less than 300 kilometres per month).

To the right – view atop the flood embankment along ul. Wał Zawadowski. The sky was clear, azure, the leaves on most tress still green. The only missing piece was a coal train, however with low heat generation on the day, odds of spotting one were naturally lower.

Having ventured riverside, I cycled south. The snap taken on one of the oldest and widest cycle paths in Warsaw, along ul. Przyczółkowa. I confess I took this photo in motion. Fiery colours of autumn taking over, illuminated by still strong sunlight.

I passed the construction site of the Southern Bypass of Warsaw, on the junction with ul. Przyczółkowa. At this very spot works seemed quite advanced, but after over a year and half, completion loomed far ahead.

Further, I took a stopover at leisure park in Powsin and pedalled on west. Here, a snap taken from a middle of a field on the southern edge of Las Kabacki. Majority of trees were still in leaf. Looking at the photo, if I were to guess the day of year when it was taken, I would bet on 20 September.

Back home, at quarter past four, back then of daylight saving time. A view from my living room (and from my balcony), looking west-south towards the forest. This view from the window was one of the reasons I was damn determined to get into possession of my current flat.

Same view, five days later, i.e. on Saturday (19 October) morning. Mist hovering in the distance, trees have shed some leaves, yet after a brisk morning came another anomalously warm (as for second half of October) day.

Another snap, taken another week later, on Saturday, 26 October. Day-time high of +19.2C, my probably last bike ride this year. The ground covered with fallen leaves, chilly wind taking a gloss off warmth. Summer was visibly fading.

More than 10 kilometres south, ponds in Zalesie Dolne, in the distance tracks of Warsaw – Radom railway line. I cycled south to Zalesie Górne to take a train to W-wa Dawidy (and make use of my travelcard valid outside Warsaw) before it got dark (and before clocks went backward).

At the end, 3 snaps from Friday’s afternoon walk. The weather has changed last Sunday within a few hours. All Saints’ Day was sunny, but chilly. Day-time high was +7C. I strolled to a meadow on the northern verge of Las Kabacki, west of ul. Moczydłowska, my magical hangout. In the distance, residential blocks of Kabaty

A field of cabbage by ul. Moczydłowska makes me wonder who cultivates arable land which is worth millions. I estimate the entire area covered with unharvested cabbages could be sold of eight-digit sum… Unless proximity to the forest hinders obtaining a planning permission these days…

At the end of my walk, I scrambled up Górka Kazury, to observe the sunset. Sadly, the sky had clouded over, yet I resolved to revisit the place with a camera on a sunny afternoon in weeks to come and catch the sun going down beyond Las Kabacki.

Sunday, 27 October 2019

Short-distance flying

Wrocław is not just my most beloved city in Poland, but also my most frequent destination in business travels. I last ventured there on Monday, 7 October, to a participate in a workshop and I for the first time I travelled there by plane (which was the second domestic flight in my life). The workshop date had been set in August, so I could buy tickets within a limit of airplane travel expenses (a return flight set my employer back around 300 PLN).

The workshop began at 9:30 a.m., while at that time the first Pendolino train arrived at 10:03 at Wrocław Główny station, which in fact meant I would have turned up nearly an hour late (not a desirable option). I could have gone there on Sunday evening, but I had not wished to give up on my private plans to take a business trip on a weekend day. A journey by car is the fastest (door to door) option, yet I was supposed to travel on my own (mileage allowance not being allocated per more passengers) and after taking several (on average one per fortnight) long-distance trips around Poland, I thought I would not get myself tired behind the wheel.

My lame excuse for plane being more environment-friendly than car was that the plane would fly to Wrocław anyway, while my car was sitting in the garage, not emitting carbon dioxide. This assertion is as wrong as the one that one vote does not count in an election. Each individual shapes demand for short-distance flights. If masses of individuals do not choose such connections and opt for trains, airlines would be forced to reduce number of such flights, as with low seat occupancy they would be loss-making.

The morning journey went smoothly. I left home just before 6:00 a.m. (the time when Pendolino to Wrocław which would carry me too late was pulling off from W-wa Centralna), took 504 bus, changed to 148 bus and arrived at the airport at 6:30 a.m.. Touched down in (frosty) Wrocław just before 8:30 a.m., caught the 106 bus to town, arrived to my destination some 10 minutes before the workshop commenced.

The way home got more complicated. The plane which was to take me home broke down on its way from Warsaw, had to return to Warsaw, be fixed and then took off again. As a result, the plane bound to land in Warsaw at 7:20 p.m. touched down an hour and a half later. I returned home an hour later than I would have come back by Pendolino (and had to change means of transport three times: 175 bus, then 189 bus, then M1 underground, then 179 bus).

The delayed return flight has made me realise one-day travellers who were about to end their journey in Warsaw were just a tiny minority (less than 20%) of passengers. Most people flying from Wrocław to Warsaw were about to miss their another flight. As an airline representative told me, it is quite common PLL LOT sells tickets from Wrocław to a city in Europe or outside our continent and as a package offers a connecting flight to Warsaw and then a direct flight to a final destination. Hence the delay of 90 minutes ruined itinenaries of some of passengers.

The problems with trips to Wrocław are the lack of relatively fast train there and lack of connections arriving to Wrocław around the beginning of a business day (i.e. between 8:00 a.m. and 9:00 a.m.). Look at what PKP Intercity offers to passengers willing to travel for one day to a major city from Warsaw (timetable from 20 October 2019 to 14 December 2019).

Service to Wrocław: 6:00 – 9:54 (nearly four hours, late arrival)
Services to Kraków: 5:55 – 8:22 or 7:00 – 9:17 (less than two hours thirty minutes and reasonably early arrival)
Service to Poznań: 5:36 – 8:26 (less than three hours and early arrival), but then no reasonable service until 9:30 – 12:25)
Services to Katowice: 5:25 – 8:11 or 6:45 – 9:13 (the second service within less than two hours thirty minutes, reasonably early arrival)
Service to Gdańsk: 6:25 – 9:16 (less than three hours, reasonable arrival).

Am I the only one who sees morning connection to Wrocław is the worst of the five above?

Train connections to Tricity, Silesia, Kraków or now Poznań can boast of station-to-station journey duration comparable or faster than door-to-door journey by car. Because there is no straight-line railway to Wrocław, the fastest door-to-door journey by train takes around five and a half hours. Compare this to door-to-door journey to my company’s head office in Wrocław which by car takes three and a half hours if you drive at reasonable speed (around speed limits or a little (no more than 10 kmph) faster) and add lack of reasonable and fast connections (PKP Intercity, do catch up!) and you will find out why only those who do not have driving licences, are afraid of long journeys behind the wheel or refuse to use their private vehicles for business purposes even in exchange for mileage allowance, travel between Warsaw and Wrocław by train (unless they can book a flight in advance).

I have promised myself not to take any airborne trip to Wrocław, yet for abovementioned reasons, I cannot pledge to take the train. The argument that despite longer journey I could work in a train is flawed, since quality of Internet connection (muffled LTE coverage) since on most incidences leaves a lot to be desired (though I have record of positive surprises in this respect). I hope one day Wrocław will have as good train connection to Warsaw as Gdańsk (same distance, journey shorter by an hour), however this would probably necessitate construction of new tracks (maybe between Łódź and Wrocław).

Sunday, 20 October 2019

Post-election musings

Oddly enough, the final results fell nearly accurately into line with exit polls (no deviations observed for the two biggest groupings).

PiS politicians, despite having won the election, have few reasons to be complacent.
They had poured billions of zlotys into Poles’ pockets – the nation has refused to be bought off with their own money to the extent they had expected…
They had harnessed the horrid propaganda machinery (TVPiS) against the opposition…
Campaigns run by the opposition had been mediocre, unlike theirs.
And despite all those tailwinds they have received the same number of seats in the lower house of the parliament and lost control over the upper house – hats down to the opposition for the Senate treaty without which this would not have been possible.

Admittedly, the very outcome is owed to lunatic-right Konfederacja, which having scored more than 1.2 million votes, is no longer is a marginal grouping. If we add up votes gotten by KO, Lewica and PSL and compare them to votes cast for PiS and Konfederacja together, the latter total is some 300,000 higher. These numbers do not bode well.

The election was a referendum – whether you embrace of reject the way PiS wants to run Poland. Mobilisation was witnessed in both tribes, which is not entirely reassuring. I have written several times Poland was divided as never before. Now the turnout is higher, but the rift is only deeper.

After losing control over the upper house of the parliament, PiS began to falter and was hit by a series of missteps (to my delight).

Media report of attempts to buy off Senate deputies in order to win majority there, laying bare end justifies the means method of handling political affairs.

Mr Banaś, kept away in the run-up to the election, refused to stand down from his position of Supreme Audit Office chairman, albeit even politicians of PiS admit given evidence of his criminal deeds, he was supposed to be file a resignation.

The battle for sex education yet another time casts light on backwardness of the party and if the government decides to pursue harsher punishments (up to five years of imprisonment) for educating teenagers on human sexuality, strong social backlash is in the offing.

Jarosław Gowin and Zbigniew Ziobro, formally leaders of two other parties which have formed a coalition with PiS and whose candidates have won twice as much seats in the parliament than four years ago, hold out for more influence on the government line-up and conspire to oust Mr Morawiecki from the prime minister’s seat.

I sincerely hope PiS is already filled with as much hubris as comes before the fall. In the coming months they might stumble and fall more frequently, yet it will not wean their electorate off them so quickly. Majority of people who support PiS, except the party’s hardcore electorate, cannot see further than the end of their noses, so the loss of pecuniary allowances will prompt them to verify their affinity with PiS. We will have to endure four years of PiS in power, yet their advances to spoil Poland will (hopefully) be thwarted by the upper house. 

With the oncoming economic misery (not just the GDP growth deceleration but inevitable inflation driven by enterprises inability to absorb cost pressures) PiS should stay in power to face the music, not the opposition, if the Poland is to benefit in the long term from being freed up from the detrimental rule of PiS.

Sunday, 13 October 2019

The vote is over

Fresh thoughts at the sight of exit polls…

In the era of Internet unofficial results (#bazarek) were circulated over the day. Early in the afternoon they filled with dread (over 55% for PiS), then reports of record-high turnout in Warsaw brought about a surge of optimism. Last two hours before 9 p.m. were a rollercoaster…

I would not get attached to the results, since IPSOS pollsters screwed it up all the way in May 2019 and thanks to large mobilisation in big cities after sunset. PiS might still lose simple majority, but stands little chance to get 60% of seats necessary to reject president’s veto.

I strolled around Natolin between 7:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. and crowds were still wandering to polling stations. The turnout in Ursynów has most likely exceeded 80%. Proud of my neighbours.

Regardless of the outcome, higher turnout signals Poles increasingly wish to participate in democracy and whoever wields power, is more legitimate to do so.

Thirdly, let’s wait for final results, including allocation of seats to the upper house. They will determine the scale of relative victory / defeat of PiS and the opposition. Nevertheless, seat-wise, the ruling party most probably has not made as big progress as it wished and is aware of number of Poles standing up against its rule (just to remind, according to preliminary results it wins 4 more seats in the lower house than it did in 2015).

Who laughs the last, laughs the best.

I have done my bit and contributed to turning down the rule of PiS. My conscience is clear… A broader follow-up next week.

Sunday, 6 October 2019

A message to my compatriots one week ahead of the election…

…which is battle for the shape of Poland in years to come. I have not authored the italicised text below. It has been written by professor Jan Widacki in July 2019 and can be read in Polish here.

The very presence of PiS does not bring misery on Poland; the tragedy is that 40% of Poles see eye to eye with PiS. Even if the opposition miraculously won the autumnal election, set against hard-line electorate PiS it would have their hands tied, particularly they would not hold Kaczynski’s party accountable for violating the constitution nor for all other ignoble deeds. Putting any politician of PiS before the State Tribunal is out of reach. To make it happen, the opposition needs a swingeing victory over PiS, an score it does not stand a chance to get. Mending the institutions of the democratic state looms impossible as well. We will be wallowing in the mire for a long time, pushed aside to the sidelines of Europe.



Under those circumstances, focusing on PiS makes no sense; the attention has to be paid to the 40% of Poles who vote for PiS. Poking fun or insulting them does the opposite effect. It prompts them to close ranks and induces their affinity with those not only do not ridicule them, but who turn their drawbacks and wicked instincts into merits, namely with PiS.

For my part…

The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing. Next Sunday do not stay passive, go to your polling station and cast your vote. It does not matter PiS wins anyway. Every vote against them decreases their majority in the parliament and their legitimacy to wield autocratic power. In this fight of David against Goliat if they do not win simple majority, I will call it a victory. I hopes Poles get mobilised as they did 12 years ago. Kaczynski fears it already, mind it!

Sunday, 29 September 2019

The last good year for the Polish economy


If you claim PiS has a macroeconomic agenda for Poland, I am afraid you would find it hard to convince me. The economic agenda of the ruling party rests on social allowances, this one pillar is fairly sufficient to prop it up and buy off several voters who, for the first time since 1989 have been given tangible cash into their hands.

The previous governments were pursuing systemic reforms, while this government neglects important spheres which require attention and investments, such as education, health service, efficient public administration. This is all done at the expense of money spent on social transfers. A new system of roads, modern trains, an improved schooling system prove not to improve the comfort of living as good as five hundred zlotys held in a palm.

Allowances generously given out by PiS are not correlated with what products or services put out in an economy nor anyhow linked to productivity. With the same amount of goods and services delivered, incomes of individuals rise. This in the short run spurs consumption and propels economic growth, but in the long run, as any student of economics should know, would spark off inflation, the phenomenon has already begun to materialise and apply most to basic products, such as fruits and vegetables, as well as to services.

The continuous price growth is consistently ignored by the central bank, whose officials obstinately point at its temporary nature, while in fact the inflation has not been caused by external shocks, but is driven predominantly by rising wages which are the component of a price of nearly any product or service. The central bank, by keeping its benchmark rate over one percentage point below (official) inflation rate not only facilitates transfer of wealth from savers to borrowers (including the biggest debtor, i.e. the government), but also fails to fulfil its statutory task which is ensuring price stability.

Savings of those have put some money aside are eaten up by inflation or actually the savers lose in real terms. When such situations occur, cash holders flee their cash and attempt to invest in assets which can potentially protect their savings from inflation. The biggest victims are first homebuyers priced out of the market, since the property market is the mostly afflicted by cash fleeing.

The cost pressures are hitting results of enterprises which have to raise wages (this pertains mostly to manufacturers), bear higher costs of energy (to be unfrozen in 2020) and transport. As an analyst covering corporate clients I have access to portfolio statistics which clearly show 2017 was the best year for corporates in Poland, then profitability of businesses dwindled in 2018, first half of 2019 have brought a further decline and number of distressed companies is further rising. With quick growth of minimum wages and increase in social security contributions the trend is unlikely to reverse.

Fellow bankers and I in unison are confident the Polish economy is anywhere but in the balance. It is overheated. I blame the Polish government, precisely their pursuit of policies of adding fuel to the fire and the central bank for not raising the interest rates when it should have been done, i.e. in 2017 for the overheating.

Regardless of my gripes, PiS is bound to win the election due in two weeks. As I once pointed out, it ought to win to pay the price for its reckless policy, but we have to mobilise ourselves to minimise the scale of their victory, at best not to let them win simple majority. Keep the faith!