In the era of Internet unofficial results (#bazarek) were circulated
over the day. Early in the afternoon they filled with dread (over 55% for PiS),
then reports of record-high turnout in Warsaw brought about a surge of
optimism. Last two hours before 9 p.m. were a rollercoaster…
I would not get attached to the results, since IPSOS pollsters screwed
it up all the way in May 2019 and thanks to large mobilisation in big cities
after sunset. PiS might still lose simple majority, but stands little chance to
get 60% of seats necessary to reject president’s veto.
I strolled around Natolin between 7:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. and crowds
were still wandering to polling stations. The turnout in Ursynów has most
likely exceeded 80%. Proud of my neighbours.
Regardless of the outcome, higher turnout signals Poles increasingly wish
to participate in democracy and whoever wields power, is more legitimate to do
so.
Thirdly, let’s wait for final results, including allocation of seats to
the upper house. They will determine the scale of relative victory / defeat of PiS
and the opposition. Nevertheless, seat-wise, the ruling party most probably has
not made as big progress as it wished and is aware of number of Poles standing
up against its rule (just to remind, according to preliminary results it wins 4
more seats in the lower house than it did in 2015).
Who laughs the last, laughs the best.
I have done my bit and contributed to turning down the rule of PiS. My conscience
is clear… A broader follow-up next week.
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