The second wave – why it will be deadlier.

Looking at the streets, we are nearly back in pre-lockdown world. Outdoors we are allowed to uncover faces (masks are obligatory indoors and if you cannot keep a two-metre distance) and most people take that opportunity with relief. Traffic is already denser, yet home office and closed schools prevent bigger traffic jams. Number of passengers in public transport is visibly higher than two months ago, yet sadly several people switched from buses and trams to private cars, not a commendable trend. Keeping proper distance in shops is a daydream; sanitizer dispensers are frequently empty, disposable gloves are out of stock.

In a week wedding and gatherings up to 150 people will be permitted, in churches there will be no restrictions in number of people attending masses. Virus clusters account for majority of infections, yet I do not put faith in epidemic being under control, as a mine or a factory is not a closed circuit. Workers infect their families, they infect their co-workers and friends and so the disease spreads.

The big loosening does not coincide with the number of new infections which remains high, far higher per 1 million inhabitants than in Germany, Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia, Switzerland and other countries which, unlike Poland, have succeeded in combating the epidemic.

Where is the logic behind the loosening? The economy would not withstand lockdown for a longer period for obvious reasons, but is it the only difference? The health service is now better prepared in terms of capacity to cure the infected who need to be hospitalised. Such approach admits we have to live with the virus and come to terms with its presence and the price to pay will be a few hundred people killed every month by it.

On top, people are tired of lockdown and hanker after a normal life. With less than 0.1% of population being officially infected with the virus, hardly anybody knows anyone harmed by it, therefore the threat looms distant. We do not witness a warfare. A bomb dropped by an aircraft has not blown off neighbour’s house, an armed soldier has not arrested your cousin, your workmate’s car has not been crashed by a tank. The enemy is invisible and the probability of coming burnt and bruised out of its assault is miniscule, therefore people do not give a damn.

Disobedience of restrictions and lockdown fatigue are not just a specialty of Poland. Sights of humans taking to the streets of Italian or Spanish cities bears out being locked up at homes for several weeks is contrary to our nature. We, humans cherish being outdoors and being in touch with other people. The more we yearn for it, the more we are likely to ignore perils. Fear might steer us for a while only.

For many folks measures taken to protect against the virus have been excessive, therefore if the number of infection rises, they will still be reluctant to abide by stricter lockdown rules. I believe the second wave is just a matter of time. The timing is uncertain, yet I would not link it to seasonal patterns. The rising number of infections in southern United States (currently the biggest number of new cases is recorded in California), in Latin America (in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paolo day-time temperatures peak above +25C or in Arab countries denies the theory that warmer weather hinders the spread of the virus. In the autumn and winter it might just coincide with the flu season, making it harder to distinguish which disease causes symptoms and putting health service capacity at strain.