The epidemic in overdrive

If you thought the coronavirus would retreat in high summer, recent infection statistics have proven you wrong. Last week we crossed the barrier of 600 new infections a day in Poland, in recent days the 700 and 800 thresholds have been crossed. In terms of cases per 1 million inhabitants Poland keeps doing far better than countries most severely afflicted by the pandemic four months ago, yet the trend does not fill with optimism.

As Michael rightly points out, our collective complacency is to blame. We have got fed up with constant sanitising, social distancing and abiding by all rules which made our lives less convenient. On top, unlike in Italy or Spain, very few people have been known somebody infected, therefore the peril has not appeared too close for comfort.

In late March we exhibited exemplary discipline, out of fear of the unknown. The spurt of anxiety was short-lasting. Psychologists claim human being are capable of large, yet short-lasting sacrifices. Besides, human memory is surprisingly short. On top, humans naturally want to rejoice to make up for time of sacrifices. The recipe for relaxation of virus prevention rules (partly written up by the government) might soon turn out to be a recipe for disaster.

The vaccine for COVID-19, if effective, is months away from us. We know somewhat better how to cure the infected, our health service is better prepared, but specialists estimate if the number of new infections exceeds 1,000 per day, we might run out of hospital capacity. The second lockdown is ruled out for economic reasons. For some time, the virus will need to be targeted with local lockdowns are sets of restrictions that might give people a hard time, but will not push towards austerity.

I personally try to live possibly normally, yet I strictly obey face-covering principles, keep my distance from people, avoid restaurants and cafes, except for open-air ones and shun crowded places. Much enough to minimise the risk of infection without risking my mental health.

Scientists have taken back their assertions that the virus is seasonal. In terms of transmission, the risk in open air on a sunny and dry day is perhaps lower, yet people get infected in interiors where conditions do not depend on the weather outside. Though the transmission might not speed up in the colder season, the incidences of flu and COVID-19 with similar symptoms will mix up, making it hard for doctors to diagnose which patient is down with which disease and possibly clogging up the health service.

Even those young and healthy who are likely to be asymptomatic, should not shrug off the virus. The disease is said to leave a mark of destruction in lungs, heart and brain, which is horrifying. I still pin some hopes in wisdom of people who should not deliberately do themselves harm. As a born pessimist, I still fear the worst is ahead.