Monday, 25 January 2021
100,000,000 case of COVID-19 have been reported worldwide. This is just an
official number of diagnosed infections, nobody knows how many people have been
infected. I presume around half a billion.
Tuesday, 26 January 2021
Several European countries witness protests of citizens and entrepreneurs
against restrictions. After nearly one year since the onset of the pandemic and
four months into the second wave, everybody seems to be fed up with lockdown, whose
safety measures are disproportionally higher amid fears of the so-called UK
variant. In Poland thousands of businesses have reopened, since their owners
have not received adequate aid from the government. I do not blame them. The
restrictions are illegal, since they have been imposed with violation of the
constitution, besides relief packages are patchy and several businessmen have
not been eligible for taxpayers’ money. I blame those who are their clients and
contribute to spread of the disease.
Wednesday, 27 January 2021
Note the proportion between the seven-day trailing average number of new
infections and the seven-day trailing average number of new deaths two weeks
later. In November 2020 it ran at around 2%, these days it reaches 3%. This is
put down to age profile of the infected (aftermath of year-end family
gatherings) and attempts to cure the disease at home instead of starting a
serious treatment early.
Thursday, 28 January 2021
I suppose the downward trend of the waning second wave in Poland has just
reached its bottom. Over the last 2 days the week-on-week numbers of new
infections have been flat. I believe the trend is inevitable reverse due to:
schools reopening for the youngest pupils, the Kent variant and reopening of
frozen-up industries.
Friday, 29 January 2021
One needs to bear in mind the pace of vaccinations in 1Q2021 will predominantly
hinge upon deliveries of the vaccine by big pharma corporations. Currently
announcements of delayed orders become the daily bread, sadly. Hope the process
speeds up, once deliveries go up and I hope it happens in less than 3 months.
Saturday, 30 January 2021
In 2020 Poland reported the second highest (after Bulgaria) number of excess
deaths per 1 million citizens in the EU. Even countries heavily afflicted by
the virus as Spain, Italy, Belgium, Czech Republic could boast of less tragic
figures. The dreadful stats, generated merely in 4Q2020 are an aftermath of
virtually defunct Polish health service which virtually stopped giving to those
ill with something else than COVID-19 or insufficient testing (not detecting
the virus before a decease).
Sunday, 31 January 2021
We can boast knowing quite a lot about Pfizer / BioNTech vaccinations. We know
the first does is less effective (50% vs. anticipated 60%), but alleviates
symptoms in case of an infection. First figures from Israel show the second
dose seems more effective than anticipated 95% and those few patients infected
more than a week after being administered a second dose showed mild symptoms. Those
news are heartening.
Monday, 1 February 2021
Next deliveries of vaccines to the EU are whittled down. The Polish government
keeps declaring it will not reschedule vaccinations for elderly people already
registered. Time will tell…
Tuesday, 2 February 2021
Mass reopening of locked down businesses and ongoing mess about legitimacy of
restrictions have prompted me to prepare a matrix which allows to assess a risk
of infection in a specific place, given 5 factors which contribute to
transmission of the virus. A food for thought to everyone in a country whose
government fails to communicate with citizens.
By today 1 in 1,000 Polish citizens has officially died from COVID-19.
Thursday, 4 February 2021
Let’s look back into November 2020:
- 7-day moving average of new infections peaked at 25,611 on 11 November 2020,
- 7-day moving average of new deaths peaked at 506 on 25 November 2020,
which translates into mortality of 1.98%.
Now look at recent figures:
- 7-day moving average of new infections on 21 January 2021 was 6,183,
- 7-day moving average of new deaths on 4 February 2021 was 271,
which translates into mortality of 4.38%.
And note in November hospitals were much more overwhelmed than these days.
Two plausible explanations are:
- higher average age of patients (aftermath of family gatherings around Christmas),
- too long treatment at home, meaning patients call for medical aid when the infection is in advanced stage.
Friday, 5 February 2021
The Polish government loosens more restrictions: hotels, ski slopes, swimming pools, outdoor sport facilities, theatres and cinema will be allowed to open on 12 February 2021. Restaurants, gyms and schools have to wait. This squares with my matrix (see above).
Saturday, 6 February 2021
I do not concede the lockdown lifting decision made yesterday an informed one. The government does not track the spread of the UK variant which becomes dominant in several European countries. Without insight into that variable, the economy reopening is done blindfold.
1 comment:
You refer to the 'UK variant', which is also called the 'Kent variant' in the UK. In Kent itself, it's known as the 'Margate variant'; in Margate, they call it the 'Upper Dean Street variant.' On Upper Dean Street, it's known as the 'Number 133A variant; at 133A Upper Dean Street, it's known as the 'Karen's room variant'.
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