Pandemic diary – weeks 52 & 53

Monday, 8 March 2021
The Polish government seems to take a wait-and-see approach to the third wave of the virus, which is close to the “let it drift” Swedish model. Infections are rising, restrictions are not imposed, social discipline is low and nobody knows which factors can preclude the ailing health service from collapsing.

Tuesday, 9 March 2021
Anyone keeping track of pandemic statistics discerns seasonality in reporting over the week. New infections are the highest from Wednesday to Saturday. The later during the week the peak is observed, the more clogged up the testing system is.

Wednesday, 10 March 2021
My parents receive the first dose of Pfizer mRNA vaccine in Grójec, mere 40 kilometres from home. The appointment for the second dose is on 14 April 2021, i.e. 35 days after the first one (vs. maximum duration of 42 days).

Thursday, 11 March 2021
The anniversary of my last day in the office. I am sick and tired of home office, but given the rising number of new infections (today: over 21,000) it definitely is the lesser of two evils.

Friday, 12 March 2021
AstraZeneca vaccine is temporarily withdrawn in nine European countries after lethal blood clots subsequent to jabbing are reported. Such incidences are not reported in the UK where the vaccine is widespread. In Poland the vaccine is notorious for its flu-like side effects.

Saturday, 13 March 2021
Warminsko-mazurskie province which has been into lockdown for 2 weeks does not see a substantial decline in new infections. Is the UK variant or the lack of social discipline to blame?

Sunday, 14 March 2021
Looking at charts showing new infections, I cannot resist an impression that Poland follows the path of Hungary, but lags approximately two weeks behind it. This means around 25 March we might see between 35,000 and 40,000 new infections daily. Given the healthcare system is already overwhelmed, such scenario would mean thousands of excess deaths.

Monday, 15 March 2021
The first day of a soft lockdown (which means there is no illegal stay-at-home order) in Mazowsze. In Warsaw and around statistics of new infections are already worse than in the peak of the autumnal wave, yet the current wave has not reached its peak yet.

Tuesday, 16 March 2021
From today on, anybody can apply for a referral for a PCR test through an online form. A solution whose goal is to offload GPs has to be amended on a first day, since unless you have all symptoms and have been in contact with an infected person, there risk is assessed as low or medium and the system does not qualify you for testing.

Wednesday, 17 March 2021
The number of patients under ventilators reaches 2,193 and is already higher than at the peak of the autumnal wave (2,149 on 23 November 2020). Over 25,000 new infections reported and the third wave, fuelled by the UK variant and lack of social discipline is picking up speed.

Thursday, 18 March 2021
In Strzelin district, Lower Silesia province, 1 in 543 inhabitants was tested positive yesterday. Nation-wide, with over 27,000 new infections we are not far from all-time record of the pandemic (27,785 new infections reported on 7 November 2020).

Friday, 19 March 2021
The number of diagnosed COVID-19 cases in Poland crosses 2,000,000. It took 273 days for the first million to be hit (on 2 December 2020) and 107 days for the second million. I bet the third million is reached in the first decade of May. My exact bet is on 8 May 2021.
Strzelin district looms as a horrifying hotbed of the virus, with 1 in 345 inhabitants tested positive yesterday. If such proportion held for the entire country, 110,000 new infections would be reported. Our daily testing capacity is around 160,000.

Saturday, 20 March 2021
Number of patients in hospital in Poland exceeded the peak from the autumnal wave (23,033 beds occupied on 17 November 2020).
Really bad days are ahead. The dynamics of new infections has risen this week to 36% week-on-week. The soft lockdown effective as of today will decrease the transmission, but unless people get scared the reproduction coefficient will stay above 1.0, which worries me.