Mayoral election in Rzeszów

In the absence of any country-wide election by the autumn of 2023, a mayoral vote to be held in Rzeszów soon is the only touchstone that can speak volumes of the Polish political arena. One could argue whether the touchstone turns out reliable, yet I would contend it does. Rzeszów is the city with nearly 200,000 inhabitants, while big cities are strongholds of current opposition in Poland, but also is the capital of Podkarpackie province, which for several years has been a bastion of PiS. The blend might produce an outcome which can set directions for politics in Poland, albeit given the time to lapse before the parliamentary election (if not brought forward), but not a long-lasting one.

The election had to be called after the incumbent mayor, in service since 2002, resigned for health-related reasons (long-haul COVID-19). The election was due to be held today, but for epidemic-related reasons were put back until 13 June 2021. I fail to see a health-related rationale for the decision. More than a year into the pandemic, we know how to hold an election in a sanitary regime. Unlike in April or May 2020, we have plenty of decent face masks, sanitizers and know how to handle the virus, which will not disappear within a month and which is not bound to decline further, especially since a full economy opening (including schools) is planned by the end of May and the percentage of vaccinated people is does not suggest we may calm down.

The opposition, though usually busy quarrelling with one another, has decided to back one candidate, a local politician, elected regularly as councillor since 2006. This move might clinch the victory of the candidate, well-recognised by locals and having a track record of political independence. He is on the verge of garnering 50% of votes.

The ruling coalition has initially come up with three candidates, currently only two stay in the game. The governor of Podkarpackie province as a member of the ruling party stands a little chance to make it to the run-off. Her rival formally no longer a party member, but remembered by many as deputy minister of justice, is far more likely to compete with the candidate of the opposition in the run-off.

The last candidate, backed by ostensibly-right grouping, is likely to get a two-digit result (in percent), as he represents the views of those who deny the pandemic and want all restrictions to be lifted immediately.

As tensions in the ruling coalition grow, I wonder whether they decide to call an early election after the pandemic ends, but early enough for voters to remember the last part of it and the moment of overcoming the disease and return to normalcy. That might be the last moment for them to retain the simple majority in the parliament, though getting a percentage of votes above 35% will be a huge challenge.