War knocking at our doors?

The full-scale war in Ukraine has gone on for 4 years 7 months, longer than anyone would predict and despite some tepid peace talks under way and intermittent ceasefires, the end thereof does not even loom on the horizon. The warfare is getting more cruel, on both sides, with Kiev being repeatedly hit by missiles, drones and rockets reaching targets in least (so far) affected western parts of the country. On the other hand for several months Ukraine has destroyed a large part of Russia's oil refining capacities, military plants and logistics infrastructure. Civilian buildings were occasionally struck too. Serves them right! The oncoming winter is likely to be an opportunity window to the tsar to bring the Ukraine to its knees, if Ukrainian energy and heating infrastructure are wiped off. This has already nearly happened last winter, but it does not mean Ukrainian cities will be able to withstand it infinitely.

Over the recent weeks one could hear warnings of NATO being put to the test. Russia will not hazard a full-scale war, but a limited intrusion, drone attacks, terrorist raids or false-flag operations are likely. Baltic countries are at most risk and they signal far-reaching preparations for some form of military aggression. The rhetorics "we know what you're into" foils Russia's plans and serves as a deterrent. But if Putin is wholeheartedly determined to mess with NATO, he will.

In Poland we won't see Russian tanks on the streets nor airplanes in the sky. But Russian drones hitting logistics hubs through which military equipment to Ukraine is transported, energy infrastructure or paralysing airports are not beyond imagination. So conceivable appears an attempt to hit two Warsaw's heating plants in the middle of a frosty winter.

The progress in military technology, i.e. the widespread use of drones has shot up and countries which do not continuously develop their technologies and don't test them on a battlefield, are doomed to lag behind. During peace, there is no chance to catch up with countries involved in warfare. For such reason I believe Poland and other NATO countries are not adequately prepared for a drone attack. If hundreds of drones are sent over Poland, I don't believe all of them will be intercepted or shot down, regardless of resources harnessed and costs borne.

Will NATO react if its territory is attacked? Stance of the USA remains a big question mark (although last week they deployed additional soldiers in Baltic countries). This month also the Slovak prime minister ruled out participation of his country's army in a plausible defence operation. Russia aims to render the NATO article 5 void, hence if Baltic countries are attacked, I am certain the Polish army should meet its obligations and take part in fending off the invader.

Gone are the times of peace. To boost odds of living in peace, we must get ready for a war and pay for it. Residents of south-eastern Poland are woken up by air raid sirens on most days. This sadly means one day when things get really nasty, they might shrug it off. One day we might face a blackout. One day we might run into a basement to find shelter. One day the Warsaw underground trains (I ride one while writing this) might become a target of terrorists. We live in turbulent times and need to get on with this.