Warfare enters its fifth year

The special three-day operation of taking over Ukraine has gone on for more than four years. Four years ago nearly nobody expected that war to last that long, nor believed Ukraine would be capable of resisting the invader and keeping the frontline basically unchanged for months.

The Western countries have shaken off the shock quickly and launched a stream of military and financial aid to Ukraine, often depleting their defensive resources. The invasion has been a wake-up call for those still deluding themselves Russia would not infringe principles set out in the civilised world.

Hollow promises of the US president have not brought a ceasefire for more than a year and little implies there is a chance for warfare suspension in near future. This buys time for Western Europe for preparation for a war with Russia, while the tsar's country slowly bleeds out instead of growing stronger. 

In early 2026 Ukrainians have endured a first harsh winter since the onset of war. As the oppressor focused on destroying the country's energy infrastructure, millions of them have lived through a humanitarian disaster living in blocks of flats devoid of electricity, central heating and running water (except for that from heating pipes cracking when frozen over).

The nation as a whole remains valiant, though it is worth underlining civilians living far from the frontline are not as severely affected as during typical warfare. Ukrainians have got used to (as one can get used to everything) to blackouts, cold and having to run to shelters a few times a week, but except for that, their lives are not at constant peril. The enemy's missiles, rockets and drones target infrastructure, but to a much lesser extent, residential areas.

Over the past months the frontline has not moved much west, while in the recent weeks, thank to disruption of Starlink connection, Ukrainians have regained control over some minor areas (which are burnt grounds anyway). Peace talks are going nowhere and nothing is going to change in this respect, as the invader is not a trustworthy partner.

As four years ago the outbreak of war was beyond our imagination, these days the vision of end of war is also equally hard to imagine. I realise it is a controversial assertion, yet I keep fingers crossed for continuation of warfare. Firstly, since I fear Russia, devoid of the burden of warfare and (heaven forfend) with sanctions lifted will be able to step up preparations for a war with NATO. Secondly, the Polish labour market, deprived of only part of the Ukrainian workforce, will plunge into a structural crisis, as most low-paid jobs have been taken up by migrants (or refugees) from Ukraine. Poles are no longer interested in many of those occupations, so to fill the gap, if some of Ukrainians head home, substantial pay rises would be necessary, triggering a spike in inflation.

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