Are we past the trough?

Had I been really good at economic forecasting, I would have been much richer, worked less and probably had more time to indulge in hobbies, including blogging. Sadly, predicting economic variables is, needless to say, subject to a lot of uncertainty. Time permitting, I keep track of what is going on in the real economy and on financial markets and spot some sparkles of optimism.

Stock markets, which usually anticipate economic recoveries, have rebounded recently, with the Warsaw Stock Exchange broad market index being some 20% above its low from early October. Some pundits warn it is just a major correction in the bear market, yet upbeat sentiment has definitely taken over recently.

Natural gas and electricity prices on commodity exchanges, though still volatile, have fallen off peaks from September. With natural gas storage facilities across Europe full, the threat of a severe energy crisis has been somewhat staved off. This also gives relief to entrepreneurs from who energy is an important item in the cost structure, except for those who hedged purchases at peaks.

Commodity prices have also adjusted to lower demand, which means, the demand for them might not necessarily fall. Brent crude oil now costs (in USD) roughly as much as before Russia invaded Ukraine.

The last glimmer of hope are PPI (producer price inflation) readouts, which signify decreasing cost pressure for entrepreneurs, which will with a delay of a few months should translate into lower consumer inflation.

Not all signals from the economy are bright. Profits of companies after 3Q2022 keep falling dramatically, which might hamper their investment plans and necessitate lay-offs.

Consumer confidence in Poland is also record-low, with wallets of ordinary people badly hit by prices of most basic goods rising faster than general inflation (+17.9% in October 2022). With negative real average wage growth (around -4% y/y) the discretionary spending must plummet and so far nothing indicates private consumption could recover soon.

Across Europe a big unknown is the threat of energy shortages during the winter. I lack competencies to assess how real that threat is, but if only the most energy-consuming industries are forced to suspend productions, effects of negative supply shock will spill over the entire economy, send inflation up.

In Poland much depends on the influx of refugees from Ukraine, where the Russian tyrant is trying to destroy the infrastructure to deprive civilians of electricity, heat and water during the winter.

Even if the worst has not come over, I believe it is a matter of a few months. Roll on spring!

The warfare has reached Poland

The accidental missile strike incident which took place on Tuesday, was just a matter of time. Given the scale of warfare so close to the Polish border and probability of a human error, the question was not if, but when it would happen. The areas near the Ukrainian border are not densely populated, so it took more than a bit of bad luck that the missile hit grain storage facilities during its working hours. The two men working there were the first Polish civilians to have become the casualties of the Russian invasion.

The Polish government convened quickly in an emergency mode to discuss the event and its implications, while holding off on any public commentary. While many detracted from their restraint, I can praise them for not saying a word too much and refraining from jumping to conclusions. Nevertheless, the official silence gave rise to a flood of fake news on social media, particularly on Twitter. The incident gave the Russian trolls an excellent opportunity to sieve misinformation; the opportunity they instantly grabbed.

Also the foreign press agencies added up to the informational chaos, quoting unverified alleged statements of intelligence officers. On top, the Ukrainian president Zelensky did not act up to the mark, by making unfounded claims the missile was shot by the Russian army. No civilised man blames Ukrainians who defend their territory against the aggressor for the death of two men, but they should not depart from the truth. The president Biden has rightly reproached Mr Zelensky over his premature assertion. Hope the Ukrainian head of state learns from his mistake and avoids next diplomatic botch-ups.

In the first hours past the incident I wondered if NATO passed the test it had been put to. With hindsight I believe senior military officers have acted considerately and held back from overreacting of what had definitely not been an attack on the territories of the alliance.

Sadly, the scenario which I envisaged a few weeks ago, i.e. that Russia will be destroying Ukrainian infrastructure to provoke a humanitarian disaster in colder months, is materialising. Even if the hell of warfare comes to an end (with Russia being defeated, no other outcome can be imagined), it will take a few years before Ukraine recovers from losses and decades before wounds in Ukrainians’ heart heal.

Budapest

I had long yearned to visit the capital of Hungary, yet there always used to be some obstacles on my way. In early October my girlfriend urged me to take a short foray abroad before the end of 2022. I had to forego my reluctance to support in any way the authoritarian regime of Mr Orban (just as in 2019 I renounced my resolution to never invest in government bonds – this has paid me off well, with superior coupons on inflation-linked gilts).

The cost of cheap airline tickets (return ticket with no small hand baggage for mere PLN 130 – such expense does not discourage from flying) and accommodation (PLN 128 per person per night) were actually the only outlays which did not hit the wallet. Maybe except for public transport tickets which were reasonably cheap.

Inflation in Hungary exceeded 20% and this is felt, even after the Hungarian forint depreciated against the Polish currency. Especially the entry tickets to sights had steep prices, but if one wants to get to know the city, such expenses must be borne.

The weather in early days of November was quite nice, with temperature in between +10C and +15C most of the time and hitting +20C in the afternoon on 2 November. If I was to pick one word to describe Budapest, I would choose “drab”. Drabness of the Hungarian capital, nearly everywhere, except for most splendid tourist destinations, is eye-popping. But while taking pics, I attempted to catch the more pleasurable atmosphere of the city.

To the right – a view at Danube river and the edifice of parliament in the distance, as seen from the ascent to the Gellert Hill. The pic taken around an hour before sunset.

The beautifully illuminated parliament building is the iconic landmark of Budapest, looking much better in the darkness that during daylight.

Inside, the building is decorated in typical Austro-Hungarian lavish style, with lots of gold and paintings. The lavishness is actually overwhelming.

The basilica in Budapest, built in the middle of the nineteenth century, also had its wall, ceiling and domes splendidly adorned. This time round I took some effort to tweak with settings of my camera, which had a visible positive impact on the quality of shots.

The basilica has a viewing terrace which overlooks the city which lacks skyscrapers. Here, a view on the Fishermen’s Bastion, the pic taken with > 10x optimal zoom, hence the blob (I lack time to process snaps in the photoshop).

Andrassy Street is definitely the high street of Budapest. The view in which all lines converged towards the horizon took my fancy, hence I bothered to snap the alley…

…From the Victory Square which, like many spots in the Hungarian capital commemorates year 1896 when Hungary celebrated a millennium of its existence. The square brings to mind sights of Berlin…

Another lavish interior is the biggest synagogue in Europe, not destroyed during WW2. It was my first visit to a Jewish temple, set me back nearly the equivalent of PLN 100, but given the expense was one-off, it was worth it!

I also thoroughly recommended the thermal baths in Budapest, yet for obvious reasons, I did not take any photographs there.

Now time to focus on Szlachetna Paczka – less than 4 weeks left before the final weekend and lot of hard work to be put in ahead of my team and me.

Pandemic diary – October 2022

Tuesday, 4 October 2022
Recent days bring a decrease in the number of cases, accompanied by just a minor decline in testing – positivity rate drops well below 30%. I bet the relief will be short-lasting

Wednesday, 5 October 2022
The 7-day average number of new infections in Poland falls below 3,000.

Friday, 14 October 2022
The 7-day average number of new infections in Poland falls below 2,000, for the first time since 21 July 2022, against alleged seasonality. The downward trend is also observed in other European countries.

Monday, 17 October 2022
With nearly no media coverage, adjusted bivalent vaccines against BA.4 and BA.5 are delivered to vaccination centres in Poland. The scarcity is well-visible.

Monday, 24 October 2022
In which I get the second booster. Given the aforementioned scarcity, I had to sign up for a jab in Józefów (15 kilometres, or 21 minutes’ drive from home). With hindsight – no side effects the next day.

Wednesday, 26 October 2022
The 7-day average number of new infections in Poland falls below 1,000, for the first time since 12 July 2022. New infections fall in all European countries, defying the seasonality hypothesis.

Workation

The word above has been underlined by the review tool as incorrect. The blend of work and vacation has emerged relatively recently, with remote working becoming increasingly popular. And until recently I had not been fond of combining travelling for pleasure without taking days off, as I believed if I venture somewhere, I should make the most of the sites I visit and not taint them with workplace-related stress and rush.

My approach changed after I hit it off, romantically, with my girlfriend who has her second flat (inherited after her grandparents) in Wisła.

The second trip to the resort was longer – we set off on Saturday, 15 October, early in the morning and returned on Sunday, 23 October in the evening. Thus we enjoyed almost 2 weekends there, plus we both took a day of on Tuesday 18 October, to make use of the spell of the Indian summer.

Weather-wise, the timing was perfect. On both weekends temperatures topped at more than +15C (though not always with sunshine) and at the beginning of the working week afternoon highs were close to +20C.

To the right – a snap from Transbeskidzki Szlak Konny, somewhere between Leśnica and Wisła Malinka. Note on higher altitudes trees had shed leaves and the path might be slippery.

On Monday afternoon we took an afternoon break from work and cycled into Dolina Białej Wisełki, close to the spot where Czarna Wisełka and Biała Wisełka converge ahead of a dam. The photo was taken around one hour before the sunset, with sunrays marvellously illuminating the landscape.

On Tuesday, in full sunshine, we wandered from Żabnica, through Hala Borawska, Hala Lipowska, Rysianka and Romanka, back to Żabnica – we covered 19 kilometres on foot and scaled the elevation gain of 878 metres. With excellent visibility, one could see summits of Tatry, including the highest peak – Gerlach.

The highest mountain we climbed was Romanka, 1,366 metres above sea level. From the top of it, one could discern the city of Żywiec in the distance. By the way – can anyone advise how to get rid of that blot from the eye of my camera?

Another before-sunset view, from the peak of Ochodzita, overlooking Koniaków, one of those villages in Beskid Śląski where more than three-fourth of residents vote for the ruling party…

On Saturday before the departure we ventured to Cieszyn. The town, called also the Polish Vienna has some impressive sights, with Cieszyńska Wenecja (the Venice of Cieszyn) being the most popular one, whose existence I discovered… during the last weekend.

Cieszyn has a proper mountain hill from which a panorama of the Czech part of the town can be observed. We crossed the border, sensed two cultures intermingling, bringing back memories the early days of the pandemic, when border between Poland and the Czech Republic was closed.

On the last day in the morning we took a bicycle ride of nearly 20 kilometres across rural areas. With the proper optical zoom I would take a pic of the wildlife approaching human dwellings, a sight rather uncommon in the capital.

Looking forward to the next trip there, probably after Christmas.

The warfare at the tipping point?

Those who still keep track of the invasion onto the territory of Poland’s eastern neighbour might realise today is the 228^th day of the war. Most people are sick of it, or indifferent to it. The cruelty of the invaders is no lesser than in the first weeks, but humans sadly have got accustomed to it.

The good news is that the Ukrainian army, aided by the civilised world, is successful in its counteroffensive in the occupied territories, running rings around the feckless Russian regiments. The news are reassuring, yet the better the Ukrainians fare, the more wrathful the unpredictable tyrant is. I feared the date of his 70^th birthday (the day before yesterday), as Putin could have wanted to displayed his might (or actually weakness) to the world. Fortunately, he did not, but the threat of using nuclear weapons, or resorting to some form of targeted nuclear incident still looms imaginable.

Looking back at the history, both Napoleon and Hitler were defeated by Russians during harsh winters. I believe the cold season will be used by the Russian dictator this year as well, not just to blackmail western Europe, still partly dependent on supplies of natural gas, but also to provoke a humanitarian disaster in Ukraine. If large swathes of the country are deprived of energy inputs, Poland will be facing another wave of refugees, even bigger than the one witnessed in the early phase of the warfare.

I keep my fingers crossed for free Ukraine in a pre-2014 territorial shape and hope the price to pay for Ukrainians victory will not be steep.

Off to my girlfriend’s second home in Wisła for two weekends and a working week, so I will catch up with photos of the autumnal mountain areas during the last weekend of October.

Pandemic diary – September 2022

Saturday, 3 September 2022
The 7-day average number of new infections in Poland declines below 3,000. It has been above that level for 32 days. This year the pandemic retreats in September.

Monday, 5 September 2022
The decline in the number of cases in Poland has not lasted low. The 7-day average bottoms out at 2,881.

Wednesday, 7 September 2022
And soon the 7-day average inclines back above 3,000 cases. Is the autumn so much in the air?

Wednesday, 14 September 2022
A week later, the 7-day average hits more than 4,000 cases and is bound to climb even higher (I am still referring to my homeland).

Thursday, 15 September 2022
All of the sudden the ministry of health announces the second booster, adjusted to Omicron variants, will be available to all 12+ triple-vaccinated Poles.

Friday, 16 September 2022
Instead of signing up for the second booster, I test myself at home for the second time this week. The result is negative again, so either I have caught a cold for the first time since more than 4 years or again, or the symptoms are the severe manifestation of allergy to my girlfriend’s dog.

Monday, 19 September 2022
New infections top out in Poland quickly, at 4,590.

Tuesday, 27 September 2022
The 7-day average number of new infections in Poland declines below 4,000. Seems the number of registered infections has settled in a sideways trend.

Szlachetna Paczka - leadership experience

I have pledged to give follow-ups on how I am doing in my new role, being a manager to more than 20 people for the first time in my life.

In mid-July I took part in a two-day workshop where I could hone my skills (such assertion implies I have already had some). Soon later I met with fellow volunteers who had decided to carry on with Szlachetna Paczka to discuss the ideas on how our area should function and how they would support me.

For a long time I had not been fond of managing people, especially I feared dealing with intractable persons. The company of friends who I can count on persuaded me to overcome my premonitions. After all, if I am to move ahead professionally, I might not end up as an expert only, but with time I would need to begin to lead other employees. But since managing a team is a school of hard knocks, it seemed an excellent idea to acquire some competencies outside the ruthless world of a corporation.

As a leader I strive to be a partner for my volunteers, rather than a boss. For the sake of my hygiene and to avert excessive workload, I delegate as many tasks as possible and I trust my team members (i.e. hold my horses in terms of controlling them).

With respect to the time spent handling the Paczka, it turns out to be more time-consuming then I expected. My role involves a lot of conceptual work, being available to volunteers who want to consult me and hundreds of clicks in IT systems, essential to keep the venture going.

Right now, after the first area meeting held this Wednesday and ahead of first meetings with families enrolled, I am glad I have taken up this challenge and happy to be in charge of such wonderful team, though some more attentive members I might require a lot of patience.

I will keep you posted on the developments on the Paczka front in late October.

Nad życie – czego uczą nas umierający - book review

I cannot recall how I have come across a mention of the book, but once I learnt of its existence, I immediately signed up for it with my infallible provider of readings – the district library of Ursynów.

The paperback, which is a structured jumble of interviews, came up to me as a loose follow-up to Tomasz Stawiszyński’s work (a new book of the philosopher to premiere in October), in which the author repeatedly underlined death had been unduly erased from the contemporary culture.

The set of interviews is literally titled “More than life – what the dying can teach us”. The first part of the title brings out several thoughts. Nothing is precious more than life. Nothing can be cherished more than life. Then a penny drops – will I read about people holding on to life tightly? Will a dying human always hold on to life? Would they take every effort to extend their stay in this universe, or would they prefer to depart before the suffering gets unbearable? Do not expect the book to provide you with any answer. The death in a moral, ethical, philosophical and psychological perspective is an abstruse and complex issue.

The decease and all its aspects – medical, legal, religious are brought closer to a reader in a series of conversations with people who, by dint of their professions, deal with dying people on a daily basis. The common denominators of all interlocutors is their reserve towards the very phenomenon of departure (inevitable, if they want to keep their sanity) that they do not pass judgements nor can indicate any universal rules.

The book explores in an approachable manner the topic of euthanasia, futile therapies, pain alleviation, terminal care and other issues whose ethical and medical dimensions are controversial. More sensitive readers might find it difficult to go through chapters on suicides (but oddly enough committed on the spur of the moment, not in an episode of depression) or departing terminally ill children, but I do believe for the sake of knowing the world we live in, they, along with the entire book, are a recommendable read.

Sardinia

Back from a week-long overseas holidays, quite different than previous trips abroad. For the first time since many years I ventured somewhere for a few days with a group of friends (there were 7 of us). In such crowd some conflicts were inevitable, yet most of the time we get on with one another well. Because the timing had to fit everyone, the journey coincided with the end of high season, which impacted the price and the weather. For many temperatures between +30C and +35C during afternoons and dawn-time low of +20C are ideal, for me it was far too hot. For the first time in my life I rented a car to drive around the island (we covered more than 650 kilometres during three days). This was also my most expensive holidaying (on account of end-of-August timing) – the week set me back around PLN 4,000, despite buying reasonably cheap plane tickets.

Alghero, on the western coast of the island was the first city we visited. It has been dubbed “a small Barcelona”, but in my opinion it does not deserve such reputation. To the right, a typical Italian narrow street on the city’s old town. Note the absence of people in early afternoon heat.

On the same day we dropped in on Sassari, which is more picturesque. Here, one of many climatic backyards, with eateries, during evenings lit by lamps hanging overhead. Such places best give off the charm of Italy.

The next day was spent on a cruise boat which sailed us around La Maddalena islands. The very excursion was a kind of pricey, but the sights of rocks and celadon water were worth it.

The entire north-eastern coast of Sardinia is called Costa Smeralda, after the colour of water in shore-side bays. To the right – one of most eye-pleasing lidos I spotted there.

On our way home from the boat excursion, we took a stopover at Golfo Aranci, which is a typical holiday resort, with promenades and beaches. Had it not been for poor access to the airport, this could have been a good place to stay (we rented a house in Pittulongu via Airbnb).

The riviera to the right is located close to Cala Gonone, on the mid-east of the island. The steep, narrow and winding road to the town and back was a challenge to me as a driver to our Fiat Pandas, yet we have made it and I feel a kind of pride. Given how Italian drivers behave on the roads and how unfriendly some junctions are, I feel a more seasoned driver after travelling behind the wheel in Sardinia.

San Teodoro is also a holiday resort which, except for typically Italian architecture, much resembles towns on the Polish seaside. Note how few people roam around. On the day the photo was taken temperature topped +35C, well above my thermal comfort.

Having dropped off the rented cars near the airport in Olbia, we had to return to Pittulongu by bus. Sadly, the public transport in Sardinia is not beyond reproach (except for its cheapness). As we had to wait for over an hour for the bus, we took shelter from the heat on a typical Sardinian cemetery.

And a bonus shot, as our plane was approaching the airport from the west (which meant I could not snap my house from the air) – this is section B of the S7 expressway, somewhere north of Tarczyn. My faith is to weak to put it in promises that the road would be passable by the end of 2022. But for the record, my father drove me through the recently opened section between Warszawa Południe and Lesznowola junctions. Once going my bicycle to my parents will not be an alternative, I shall probably take S2 and S7 to get to Nowa Wola and then to Nowa Iwiczna, bypassing several traffic lights and currently marked out bus lane on ul. Puławska.