Pandemic diary - week 1

The coronavirus pandemic is the biggest disruption to people living in the war-free and disaster-free parts of the world since the end of WW2. Once we endure it, it will become a history. Worth saving those days for posterity.

Monday, 16 March 2020

Cold morning. Jumped on my bike to a local one-day hospital to find out whether my mother has her visit, scheduled for today, cancelled. To my surprise, the centre operates normally, but who knows whether her eye surgery, scheduled in a week will be performed (update: it is cancelled until further notice).

At work things take a worse than expected turn. We switch into 10-hour working day and begin to pursue our banking state of emergency to ease distressed customers.

Tuesday, 17 March 2020

A 10-hour working day is just a theory. Disruptions in trade prompted businesses to act defensively to shield their liquidity, which in fact means many industries have run into a state of all-in payment gridlock. The scale of cut-off has risen well below my expectation. I miss a company in my lonely fight.

Wednesday, 18 March 2020

Finally my spirits somewhat lifted. I have shaken off the shock, which had been my reaction to how businesses had responded to harsh measures against the pandemic. At work we have tried out videoconferencing. At least it gives a substitute of a fellow man’s presence.

Day-time high of +17C, so I spend nearly the entire afternoon in the balcony with notebook on my knees, my skin catching sunrays. I knock off before sunset (only once this week) and go for a walk. The sight of groups of teenagers hanging around in the open air brings me down and so does the report of the daily death toll in Italy – 475 fatalities of the virus over last 24 hours. In terms of total deaths, Italy will probably overtake China tomorrow (update – it did); in terms of deaths per 1,000,000 citizens it has surpassed China several days ago.

Thursday, 19 March 2020

I wonder what impact the coronavirus will have on the housing market in Poland. Some analysts say after buyers shake off (i.e. a few weeks after the epidemy comes to an end) prices will continue to rally, especially with slashed cost of credit. I believe property prices are correlated strongly with macroeconomic environment and will slowly decline (property prices unlike share prices are rather rigid) for a few quarters. In the meantime the rental market has invented a niche – flats for rent for a fortnight quarantine – such ads are immediately removed by site administrators.

The president of the Polish central bank said today Poland’s GDP growth will decline to +2% y/y in 2020. Who is he going to fool? I predict a sharp recession, observing how businesses have grinded to a halt. I believe the central bank should not further cut interest rates, while the benchmark rate ought to stay at 1% only until the economic recovery is confirmed.

At work today from 8:00 a.m. to 8:30 p.m. (with an hour-long break for an afternoon walk)

Friday, 20 March 2020

There should be no delusion – everyone will pay the bill for the economic crisis which has just started. There is no point is hoping the government will absorb it. The government does not have its own money, it collects money in taxes. What the government can do is to:
1) try to distribute costs of the crisis for equitably,
2) defer payment of the bill until economy recovers.

Authorities of Warsaw have finally decided that since next week public transport will run according to weekend timetable. I have had enough of sight of buses running nearly empty or totally empty through Ursynów, unnecessarily emitting fumes and greenhouse gases and increasing wear-and-tear beyond what is necessary. A month ago I would bridle at somebody who would tell me in four weeks I would advocate using private cars (not shared cars, not taxis) for moving around town. I last drove out of the garage on Sunday (so I do not use the car more than I really need not) and move around on foot, by bike or by car, depending on distance and weather. Once the epidemy is gone, I will revert to praising public transport.

At work today from 7:30 a.m. until 9:00 p.m. (with an hour-long break for an afternoon walk)

21 March 2020

Listened to an interview with Jarosław Kaczyński at RMF FM. Listen to it or read it here and draw your own conclusions.

The presidential election, due in May 2020 need to be postponed, this goes without saying and does not need additional justification.

Today at work for merely 5 hours, to catch up with stuff which need to be ready on Monday morning.