Sunday 15 March 2020

Uncertainty

Wednesday, 1 January 2020, late morning. Empty streets. I thought to myself whether this would be possible on any other day of the year. Reality has already answered my question.

At the beginning of the week I planned to write about the oncoming presidential election, still due in May. As I am writing this post the state of emergency has not been declared, yet I believe we might be hours from it being declared, as the situation profoundly justifies it. Nevertheless, the incumbent president kept campaigning in Garwolin yesterday. His term needs to be extended in current circumstances – we will endure a few months more with him as a head of state.

With an invisible enemy which has brought nations to its knees and disorganises our lives, all current affairs and plans recede into the background. We might yearn for just a week ago was a normalcy.
On Friday, 6 March, I spent the evening in a restaurant with friends.
On Saturday, 7 March, I last went to a local swimming pool.
On Tuesday, 10 March I last travelled to work by underground (without much fear).
On Wednesday, 11 March, I drove to the office by (private) car and took all IT equipment home to ensure my workplace for a few weeks (my living room) is ergonomic and comfortable.
On Friday, 13 March, after the conference held by the prime minister, I rushed to Decathlon to pick up by bike from completed pre-season maintenance (yesterday the shop was closed and thanks to this my bike is not arrested for a few weeks).

In terms of preventive measures, Poland is ahead of other countries at the same stage of the epidemy. All inconveniences are pursued wisely, yet one has to bear in mind the Polish health service suffers after years of being neglected and underfunded. I am of the opinion further restrictions ought to be placed, with limiting trade to groceries, pharmacies, petrol stations and other services essential to keep life going. Rationing out food and other stuff people stockpiled on in recent days (including lavatory paper) would in my opinion make sense, to prevent people from making gatherings in shops.

Recovery after the epidemy is under control is one thing, the other task will be resuscitation of the economy. Several small businesses had to be closed down and consequently deprived of revenue, which most expenses due to be paid, including salaries payable to employees. Bigger enterprises usually have resources to carry on for a few months, smaller ones might not survive a month. Here also prevention is better than cure.

The banking system is indeed (at least in this respect officials do not lie) well-prepared for serious tribulations, as long as people do not start withdrawing deposits. My insight observation is that my employer and probably no other bank has not envisaged in its business continuity plans such widespread disruptions. We are working to improve business continuity procedures and bracing ourselves for helping distressed customers especially in situations when signing documentation is impossible.

This situation tests us for:
- idiocy – those who shrug off the peril, compare it to regular flu and rush to shops to stock up excessively fail it,
- manhood – we should be ready to help and care for the most vulnerable fellows,
- discipline – this is the time to give up on what considered to be a normal life over our entire lifetime.

Apart from the economy, human psyches will need to recover. Some, like me, spend this time in isolation. Phone calls, Messenger or WhatsApp will not replace face-to-face contact. Others are stuck with their partners or families in one dwelling, possibly for several weeks without major breaks, which will also put their relationships to the test. Maybe the epidemy will reshape model of fostering relationships and appreciate being with another person, rather than with a smartphone.

I read a human brain needs two weeks to adjust to such unprecedented situation. 14 days seem little, yet the progress of epidemy is faster than capacity of the human brain – what I wrote on 1 March about the coronavirus seems outdated today. The word which best describes where we are know is uncertainty. We do not know how our life will look like in a week. Easter, due in 4 weeks seems a distant future. But quite possibly, in a year life will be going on pretty normally, hopefully.

Down-to-earth stuff: today is the fifth anniversary of my paternal grandmother’s death.

Weather-wise, last night was the coldest this… cold season in Warsaw, with temperature down to –8C.

1 comment:

Adelaide Dupont said...

"I am of the opinion further restrictions ought to be placed, with limiting trade to groceries, pharmacies, petrol stations and other services essential to keep life going. Rationing out food and other stuff people stockpiled on in recent days (including lavatory paper) would in my opinion make sense, to prevent people from making gatherings in shops."

Ah - very sensible!

In Australia just now more than a hundred people are now barred from gathering together non-essentially.

"The banking system is indeed (at least in this respect officials do not lie) well-prepared for serious tribulations, as long as people do not start withdrawing deposits. My insight observation is that my employer and probably no other bank has not envisaged in its business continuity plans such widespread disruptions. We are working to improve business continuity procedures and bracing ourselves for helping distressed customers especially in situations when signing documentation is impossible."

Yes - they are honest!

And thank you for putting the three tests - manhood; discipline; idiocy - so succinctly.

In the pharmacies people are no longer using communal pens or signing their scripts.