Hope we will never live through Easter like this, when we have to be
apart in order to spend the next one together. Lack of celebrations together is
not a tragedy. The weather is fine and due to numerous limitations reasonable
citizens prefer to stay indoors or go for a short walk and keep their distance
from other strollers.
Tuesday, 14 April 2020
One more day off work, at least giving some chance to forget about
office-related quandaries. In the morning I drive to have my car overhauled and
get the vehicle’s MOT renewed. While the work is being done I walk from
Konstancin to the intersection of ul. Puławska and ul. Karczunkowska to watch
AN-225 Mrija descending towards the runway.
For a plane spotter, a pleasure, for the government an abhorrent
celebration. The plane brought 80 tonnes of medical equipment. For a
comparison, two other planes, arranged by Dominika Kulczyk and WOŚP brought
respectively 57 and 40 tonnes of medical equipment, with much, much less hype
around it.
The car is disinfected with ozone after the overhaul. As I return, all
doors remain open, there is still some nasty smell inside. I hope my Megane is
ahead of another year of problem-free service.
Wednesday, 15 April 2020
Shopping, new clothes, travels, big gatherings, gadgets, eating out and
several other stuff we have had to give up on. But I find it extremely hard to
go without two things: spending time outdoor in nature and direct contact with
people. The former is now dosed out, the latter has ceased recently.
A month ago people would call me, I would call people. These days
conversations on the phone (which are the best substitutes of face-to-face
meetings) get less frequent, people I talk to confess they are slowly running
out of endurance in isolation.
Thursday, 16 April 2020
I hear people have discovered you can meet online do several things
online thanks to web cameras and video streaming applications. A month ago I
hoped thanks to the collective quarantine people would appreciate direct
contact with one another. Today I fear they will relish on the new methods of
communication which for me are just a substitute.
Today the duty to cover one’s nose and mouth in the public space comes
into effect. A traditional face mask has a big drawback for every spectacled
person, i.e. glasses mist up while one breaths air out. I have come up with an
invention how to overcome this nuisance, i.e. to each of my multiple-use masks
I sew in a bendable, elastic wire which then needs to adjust its shape to a
shape of nose and cheeks, thus leaving no space between the skin and the mask.
I wonder why nobody has exploited this market niche.
Friday, 17 April 2020
The number of tests carried out in Poland is rising after Easter. Polish
laboratories have capacity of 20,000 tests per day, while today 10,500 tests
are examined. Needless to say the best way to combat fever is to get rid of the
thermometer.
Looking at (small and rich) countries which have made more than 5 tests
per 100 citizens (in Poland so far 0.5 test per 100 citizens have been run),
i.e. Iceland, United Arabic Emirates, Luxembourg, Malta, one can infer that
mortality rate has been below 1% so far, except for Luxembourg where it stands
currently at 2.1%. Add to this that research from the German town Gingelt,
where a large sample population was examined for COVID-19 antibodies and
results showed around 80% of the examined were infected symptom-free and… will
you get the actual scale of the peril?
I look at increasing car traffic in Ursynów and wonder where those
people go. I do not travel for work-related reasons, nor for fun, but use the
car twice a week to drive to Auchan Piaseczno to do myself and pick up to my
parents some bigger shopping.
Saturday, 18 April 2020
The weather is fine, but one has to stay indoors. Tomorrow first
restrictions are lifted, so recreational cycling will be possible again. Sadly,
with face masks only. Face masks are justified when one meets people, but what
is the point in wearing them for a lonely bike ride far away from civilisation.
I look with curiosity at countries which have brought epidemic under
control and where the number of active cases has been on decline for two weeks,
i.e. Germany, Austria, Czech Republic, Iceland. All those countries have
carried out widespread testing and have introduced social distancing measures
early. I wonder how the story unfolds and when the number of active cases
rebounds (it seems inevitable, if social distancing rules are slowly loosened
up).
Sunday, 19 April 2020
The link between common vaccinations against tuberculosis and how the
epidemic spreads in a specific country appears noteworthy. Poland is one of
countries in which everyone has to vaccinated, while in Italy, Spain or France,
this was not obligatory. It needs to be scientifically proven, yet in
vaccinated populations:
- transmission seems slower, or in other words people are more immune,
- even if a patient contract the virus, illness is milder,
- consequently the mortality rate is lower.
- transmission seems slower, or in other words people are more immune,
- even if a patient contract the virus, illness is milder,
- consequently the mortality rate is lower.
I go for two walks with my face mask on. The ventilation is definitely
worse, so with the obligation to cover the face I will either need to give up
on cycling, or find a mask which could let me breathe easily during physical
effort. Doctors say intense physical effort with face mask on would do more
harm than good.
Monday, 20 April 2020
The day some restrictions are lifted. You can go to a forest without a
face mask (given density of walkers in Las Kabacki this is an idiocy), to a
park, more people can enter churches and shops which makes shopping more
convenient. Yet the economy is not being unfrozen by a single bit.
After knocking off at 5:00 p.m. I take my bike out of the basement to
check whether cycling in a face mask is a nuisance. To my surprise, ventilation
is not tragic, it is more than bearable. Yet trips longer thank 20 kilometres
are not advisable. Doctors who dissuade people from physical effort in face
masks are right.
Tuesday, 21 April 2020
Business-wise… The companies who were not instructed to close down and
carry on are troubled by increased cost of rigorous sanitary regime and by
lower productivity as a result of social distancing measures. Both factors
drive their profitability down. In order to stay above water, they will need to
raise prices soon, dashing hopes for decrease in inflation. Nevertheless, if
decreasing demand will contain inflation, salary cuts or lay-offs are
inevitable.
The UK figures on deaths in England and Wales are published. In week
from 4 April 2020 to 10 April 2020 over 18,500 deceases were registered, vs.
5-year average of 10,500.
Wednesday, 22 April 2020
Few notice what Michael points at. Drought will be yet another problem
in 2020. In April barely 4 millimetres of rainfall were recorded in Warsaw. A
lovely weather to work at the balcony in the afternoon, but food prices will
hit our wallets on top of other miseries.
The Biebrza National Park, one of priceless pieces of Poland’s wildlife
and nature heritage is on fire. The blaze and the drought begin to come into
the foreground.
In the evening I drive to the office to pick up books I lent to my
workmates before the lockdown and which the gave me back and leaving them on my
desk. I take an opportunity to roam around city centre around 7:00 p.m. Area
near PKiN is full of homeless, drunkards and youngsters hanging around. I don’t
feel entirely self. Warsaw is not a ghost down, yet is far from being alive.
Thursday, 23 April 2020
City mayors receive a letter which demands them to provide the national
postal service operator with personal data of all citizens entitled to vote,
which is… unlawful. Yesterday morning minister Sasin admitted he was acting on
the basis of draft law… The wojna kaczyńsko-polska exacerbates.
In the evening I take a cycling trip. The weather is conducive (+16C,
sunny) and I manage 20.7 kilometres with my face mask on and without drinking,
at average speed of 14 kmph.
Friday, 24 April 2020
People are already fed up with restrictions, especially the isolation
and the stay-home order / recommendation. These days they particularly moan
about face masks in which many have problems breathing. I have managed to get
on with them. I began to wear them in late March when going to a shop, today I
abide by all laws, although the one which says in a crowded forest you can move
about without a mask, but on an empty street you need you wear it is an idiocy.
A workmates who also lives on her own calls me to have a chat. She says
during a regular war there was a visible enemy and you could take comfort in
other people. Today I can be nearly sure I will not die as a result of warfare,
but isolation from other people is a form of self-imposed torture.
Saturday, 25 April 2020
Handling the epidemic is about choosing the lesser of two evils. Just
like many other people, I look at Sweden with curiosity. Months will elapse
before we know whether their mild lockdown would be the right choice.
Saturday traffic seems to be going back to pre-lockdown levels. Number
of people on the streets also getting higher. 90% wear face masks.
Sunday, 26 April 2020
Today, let’s look at curves showing active cases (number of currently
infected people, i.e. all cases less recovered and fatalities) in countries
which have brought the pandemic under control. Charts and figures taken from Worldometer.
Germany: peak on 6 April 2020: 72,865, down to 40,836 on 25 April 2020. Tests:
24,738 per 1 million population.
Switzerland: peak on 31 March 2020: 14,349, down to 5,995 on 25 April
2020. Tests: 28,343 per 1 million population.
Austria: peak on 3 April 2020: 9,334, down to 2,509 on 25 April 2020.
Tests: 24,549 per 1 million population.
Denmark: peak on 10 April 2020: 3,799, down to 2,358 on 25 April 2020
(though up by 63 vs. 23 April 2020). Tests: 23,607 per 1 million population.
Czech Republic: peak on 13 April 2020: 5,397, down to 4,681 on 25 April
2020. Tests: 20,087 per 1 million population.
Iceland: peak on 6 April 2020: 1,096, down to 210 on 25 April 2020.
Tests: 134,716 per 1 million population.
Poland: peak on 25 April 2020: 8,623. I doubt it will decline. Tests: 7,372
per 1 million population.
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