Pandemic diary – weeks 92, 93 & 94

Monday, 13 December 2021
R(t), the reproduction number, drops in Poland below 1.00, which means the pandemic is winding down.

Tuesday, 14 December 2021
If you look carefully at the map of new infections, you will be the epidemic has trundled from eastern towards western Poland. In eastern provinces the number of new infections is 5 – 10 times lower than over a month, with the number of tests carried out holding steady.

Wednesday, 15 December 2021
New restrictions are in force as of today. The number of visitors in several venues is limited to 30% of capacity, but holders of the COVID certificates are excluded from the limits. Ludicrously, the government has not passed any law empowering entrepreneurs to demand the certificates. Therefore a visitor may voluntarily show the certificate to a enter a venue. The strategy of the Polish government is to pretend to fight the virus and not to mess with the anti-vaxxers.

Thursday, 16 December 2021
In Poland vaccinations of children aged 5 – 11 kick off. On the first day around 10,000 children get their first jabs, while more than 100,000 are signed up by their parents. No big success.
In the UK after over 88,000 new infections are reported (therein more than 23,000 in London only), the 7-day average of new infection has an all-time high, going above level reported in early January 2021. The omicron takes over and stands a chance to wipe out the health care system.

Friday, 17 December 2021
The 7-day average of new infections declines below 20,000, after staying above such level for 25 days. It is a matter of less than a month before it bounces back and returns above that level.

Saturday, 18 December 2021
The ministry of health has published some time ago a detailed database of all infections and deaths in Poland, broken down into dates, sex, age and vaccination status. This substantial source of analytical material has passed unnoticed in the public discourse.

Sunday, 19 December 2021
I thought fake vaccination certificates were a marginal problem in Poland, yet more and more frequent news of hospitalised patients admitting to have bought one suggests the scale of the forgery is larger than I supposed. A fake certificate is an expense of 500 – 2,000 PLN.

Monday, 20 December 2021
Early in the morning I get my booster shot. After 2 doses of Pfizer I mix it up with Moderna, which is meant to boost my antibody count. Tomorrow I will learn that only 6.5% of Poland’s population aged 25 – 49 has taken the booster on that day and 14.7% of the entire population. Too little to bode well.
Off-topic: today the tunnel beneath Ursynów is opened; thus the Southern Bypass of Warsaw is completed.

Tuesday, 21 December 2021
I look at Omicron-related data from South Africa and wonder whether the world is not overreacting. The surge there was short, reversed quickly and did not result in many hospital admissions nor death. Keeping an eye on the UK.

Wednesday, 22 December 2021
On 29 October 2021 when the number of officially detected cases exceeded 3,000,000 I predicted the number of new infections would hit 4,000,000 on 26 January 2022. I got it wrong, by 35 days. The fourth million was reached within merely 54 days. For comparison:
- the first million was reported within 275 days,
- the second million was reported within 105 days,
- the third million was reported within 224 days.
I foresee 5,000,000 mark will be crossed on… 26 January 2022.
775 deaths reported on that day come as a negative surprise to me.
Keeping an eye on the UK – so witnessed over 106,000 new registered infections. I suspect 7-day average of new infections peaks out at around 130,000 (got it wrong already).

Thursday, 23 December 2021
More than 980,000 cases registered worldwide breaks the previous record of less than 905,000 new infections reported in late April 2021, when Delta was in overdrive in India. One million will probably be hit next week and I safely bet two millions will be detected on one day in January 2022.

Friday, 24 December 2021
Deaths (7-day average) peak at 453, lower than during the previous waves (604 in spring 2021, 506 in autumn 2020). Vaccines save lives, but not for thousands of families who will sit at Christmas tables in mourning.

Saturday, 25 December 2021
The 7-day average of new infections declines below 15,000, after staying above such level for 39 days. The metric will see an accelerated decline because of scant testing during the festive period. I predict it will bottom out sustainably somewhere around 9,000 cases.

Sunday, 26 December 2021
178 vaccine doses administered yesterday in Poland. I realise it is Christmas, but warfare against the virus ought to continue.

Monday, 27 December 2021
The Omicron wave, even if patients do not clog up hospitals and if a hard lockdown is not imposed, might have economic implications. A large number of infected isolated and persons in contact with them quarantined might paralyse the country.

Tuesday, 28 December 2021
In Malta 1 in 342 citizens tested positive yesterday. I believe such records will be broken several times in coming weeks.
Worldwide more than 1,200,000 new cases reported, with several countries on northern hemisphere breaking records. 2,000,000 expected next week.
R(t) in Poland bottoms out at 0.68.

Wednesday, 29 December 2021
In Denmark 1 in 264 citizens tested positive. This wave will definitely have a high tide, but will burn out quickly, hopefully with few fatalities

Thursday, 30 December 2021
In Ireland 1 in 244 citizens tested positive. Experts say this is not the last word.

Friday, 31 December 2021
Today could have been the turning point between the fourth and the fifth wave, with 7-day average of new infections bottoming out at 10,774. Or this was just the effect of increased testing on New Year’s Eve vs. Christmas Eve. I hope the latter explanation is correct.
And the customary month-end report of the sluggish pace of vaccinations in Poland.

1. Vaccine uptake in age groups – sadly ECDC has taken a Christmas break, so this time a bit outdated, but in a new layout, with a booster.

2. Vaccination status in the entire population of Poland

Saturday, 1 January 2022
In Warsaw alone 6 more new infections than a week ago. For some 6 weeks the clear trend of 20% week-on-week decline was visible. It is the thing of the past probably.
Don't know whether delays in reporting are to blame, but 7-day average of new deaths reaches a new high of 464.
In Ireland 1 in 216 citizens tested positive. This wave will be a flash.