Pandemic diary – weeks 97 & 98

Monday, 17 January 2022
A week ago children returned to school and several people returned to work after holiday. I expect new cases to take off very soon.

Tuesday, 18 January 2022
The 7-day average of new infections increases above 15,000 again, after staying below such level for 24 days. New infections are now bound to soar, we will follow the path of other countries.
In France 1 in 141 citizens tested positive.

Wednesday, 19 January 2022
More than 30,000 new infections, up by 89% week-on-week, the highest number since early April 2021. The surge has started. I spend the day in the office and meet around 30 people…

Thursday, 20 January 2022
New cases up by 95% vs. last Thursday and nearly 3,000 new infections in the capital of Poland.
The 7-day average of new infections increases above 20,000, after staying below such level for 34 days.
In Israel 1 in 136 citizens tested positive.

Friday, 21 January 2022
New infections up by 128% week-on-week, with a record-breaking number of new infections. I see no point in informing about new records, since they will be reported several times a week.
In the evening I attend a party to celebrate the success of Szlachetna Paczka after which I will self-isolate. Putting the booster to the test…
1 in 133 citizens tested positive in Denmark.

Saturday, 22 January 2022
As I wake up into my self-isolation, I just see an increase in new by nearly 150% week-on-week. But the really ghastly piece of information is that the number will be going up until around 10 February 2022 and reported stats will be just the tip of the iceberg.
The 7-day average of new infections increases above 25,000, which means the fifth wave is already higher than the second and fourth one.

Sunday, 23 January 2022
The number of patients hospitalised hits its low at 13,491. Does not bode if it is the starting point for the Omicron wave. Just to remind you, the starting point for the Alpha wave were 11,962 beds occupied on 14 February 2021.
The fifth wave is already higher than the third one.
Positivity rate creeps above 30%.

Monday, 24 January 2022
New infections up by 179% week-on-week.
The 7-day average of new infections increases above 30,000. From now on hitting round number will be reported after each 10,000 more. 40,000 expected on Thursday in an optimistic scenario. In a pessimistic one – the day after tomorrow.

Tuesday, 25 January 2022
P1 system in which referrals for tests are issued clogged up yesterday and has not been lifted until today afternoon. What a mess!
My employer forbids coming to the office by the end of February.
Wronki is the first municipality in Poland where 80% of residents have had at least their first jab.
The decision to partly close schools is taken. Except for pupils up to the fourth year of the primary schools, remote learning will be in place by 27 February.
In France 1 in 131 citizens tested positive.

Wednesday, 26 January 2022
For this day:
- on 29 October 2021 I predicted new infections would hit 4,000,000,
- on 22 December 2021 I predicted new infections would hit 5,000,000.
The outturn of 4,637,776 came closer to the latter prediction. I missed it by 363,224 infections, but it will be caught up with within a week, I suppose.
In Slovenia 1 in 119 citizens tested positive.

Thursday, 27 January 2022
From today on, each individual is allowed to take a free-of-charge antigen rapid test in a pharmacy. In theory the opening lists of pharmacies has 64 such places across the country, therein 3 in Warsaw and around (1 pharmacy for 1,000,000 residents). In practice tests are not delivered to pharmacies anyway, so the efforts to boost testing are a flop.
The 7-day average of new infections increases above 40,000 – the optimistic scenario materializes.
The number of people quarantined in Poland exceeds 1,000,000 for the first time in history. To decrease the figure which has impact on absences in workplaces, the government has shortened the quarantine duration from 10 to 7 days, coming into effect on 24 January 2022 and not applying retroactively.. Add up more than half a million in isolation and you get 4% of Poland’s population stuck at homes.

Friday, 28 January 2022
I read the draft law of workplace testing which imposes potential financial penalties on employees who refuse to get tested. The law is ludicrous, but I am so underwhelmed by absurdities that I hold back from commenting on it.
In Denmark 1 in 116 citizens tested positive.

Saturday, 29 January 2022
In Warsaw as of today:
- new infections down by 13% week-on-week,
- tests carried out up by 17.5% week-on-week,
- positivity rate down by 7 p.p. from 27% to 20% week-on-week.
Hard to believe the capital has just gone past the peak. Albeit the general trend will be disrupted by school closures and school holidays just commencing.