Pandemic diary – weeks 99 & 100

Monday, 31 January 2022
The customary month-end report of the sluggish pace of vaccinations in Poland.

1. Vaccine uptake in age groups

2. Vaccination status in the entire population of Poland

Tuesday, 1 February 2022
Poland is the only country in the EU to have reported less than 1,000,000 test carried out per 1one million citizens since the beginning of the pandemic. Romania, the runner-up in the nefarious ranking has made 1,001,131 test per one million citizens, while Poland only 808,195. In comparison, Denmark has tested an average citizen more than 20 times.

Wednesday, 2 February 2022
The fifth wave reaches in Poland its surprisingly low peak at 49,078 (7-day average of new infections).
In Slovenia 1 in 89 citizens tested positive. Over 35% of the country’s population (2.08 million) have been officially infected since the onset of the pandemic.

Thursday, 3 February 2022
The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Poland crosses 5,000,000. The last million was reached within 43 days, 8 days later than I had predicted on 22 December 2021. Even if the optimistic scenario materialises and the wave begins to decline, I bet the decline will be slow and 6,000,000 will be hit on 5 March 2022 (i.e. within 30 days).

Friday, 4 February 2022
Newspapers inform about 250,000 Poles who have been given a referral to get tested, have not shown up at testing centres. Reasons might be manifold:
1) too long queues to testing centres,
2) they feel to bad to get to a centre,
3) the fact that seven-day quarantine is shorter than ten-day isolation (in fact ten days plus the time of waiting for test result and to get tested).
The system might have clogged up, as the reported capacity is 192,000 tests per day and actual number of tests conducted is near 180,000.

Saturday, 5 February 2022
Looking at the positivity rate in Poland we it has ranged from 26% to 34% since 20 January. The steady percentage of positive test results does not confirm the hypothesis that the testing system has reached the limits of its capacity. Although in fact it has.

Sunday, 6 February 2022
European countries that definitely have gone past the peak (date of the peak in 7-day average of new infections in brackets) of omicron wave are:
- the United Kingdom (5 January),
- Ireland (12 January),
- Italy (14 January),
- Spain (17 January),
- France (25 January),
- Sweden (27 January),
- Belgium (28 January),
- Portugal (29 January).

Monday, 7 February 2022
The Polish Ministry of Health brings in reporting of reinfections. A positive change triggers chaos in reporting and prompts questions whether until now reinfections had been properly reported. With hindsight it turns out they were.

Tuesday, 8 February 2022
Number of officially detected cases worldwide hits 400,000,000, 4 days earlier than I foresaw on 5 January 2022 (when it crossed 300,000,000 mark). I predict half a billion will be exceeded on 22 March 2022.
R(t), the reproduction number declines in Poland below 1.00x. The peak in reported new infections was reached one week before most mathematical models had predicted.

Wednesday, 9 February 2022
The Polish Minister of Health announces the pandemic draws to a close (on a day when nearly 47,000 new infections and over 300 deaths are reported). To accommodate to such scenario, the government:
- lifts quarantine of people who have contacted an infected person,
- shortens quarantine for flatmates of an infected person (takes effect on 11 February),
- shortens isolation from 10 to 7 days (takes effect on 15 February),
- brings forward the end of remote learning by one week – children are to return to schools on 21 February.
But the jaw-dropping announcement is scrapping the obligation to wear mask indoors once new infections decline. For me the very latter is a step too far. Are they going to call the election? Last time the virus was retreating before the election.

Thursday, 10 February 2022
The 7-day average of new infections decreases below 40,000, after staying above such level for 14 days.

Friday, 11 February 2022
With some delay I find an updated pandemic forecast by MOCOS. Those quants a month ago predicted nearly 150,000 reported infections daily and 700 deaths daily after the wave peaked. The new forecast says:
- 7-day average of new infections will decline below 10,000 on 1 March 2022,
- 7-day average of new deaths will peak at 255 on 18 February 2022.

Saturday, 12 February 2022
Bulgaria is the first country in the UE in which 0.50% of the population officially died from COVID-19. Disregarding the virus, reluctance towards vaccines and poor health service have contributed to the dismal statistics.