Struggling to recall how I have learnt about the book, but beyond all doubt I immediately ordered it in the district library of Ursynów. To my surprise, the wait was not particularly long after a mere few weeks I was notified I could borrow it.
Th recently (autumn 2021) published volume is a transcript of extended conversations between Jacek Bartosiak (expert in international politics with focus on military issues) and Piotr Zychowicz (historian). The two men hold unbiased discussions in which they keep to themselves their private political views (the latter is a right-wing ardent anti-communist) and brush aside their prejudices. The outcome is a detailed, substantive analysis of superpowers in the contemporary world and how the spheres of influences might reshape in the coming decade.
The book rests on a paradigm that the era of post-history in which carnages of the First and the Second World Wars are not going to repeat, in which only local military conflicts are conceivable, but the highly developed countries enjoy peace, is drawing to a close. The authors claim something is about to give in less than a decade. They cite China’s ambitions to take over the dominant role from the United States as a major motive and dissect several other aspects as minor reasons potentially leading to a clash that could spill worldwide.
The script has prompted me to revise my views on armament spending, which for years I had considered mostly useless. My notion would have held true had there been no enemy to Poland, which most likely is a naïve claim. Modern, well-equipped and professionally-trained army with continuously updated contingency plans is like an insurance policy. A country pays the insurance premium to scare off enemies.
The authors are critical in their assessment of how Poland has handled its military policy over the last 30 years and cannot point at any government over that period that stood out positively. The unconstrained trust in the alliance with the United States, thoughtless armament spending just to stick to NATO’s requirements or for the sake of showing of earmarking a certain percentage of GDP for the military purposes, excessive purchases of aircrafts and other equipment from the United States to flatter the America – all that is slated by the experts.
Mr Bartosiak and Mr Zychowicz also take a look at the history of Poland around WW2, its subjugation to allies who turned their back on my country. The bitterly admit Poland should have focused more on its vested interests, rather than relying on allies and acting like a saviour of the world, sending its soldiers to shed blood for other nations. Drawing on those experiences, they insist Poland should curtail its dependence and reliance on NATO and be as self-supporting as it can, while staying united with Western Europe and strengthening this alliance wisely.
My read of the book coincided with Russia’s preparations to invade the Ukraine. I have pinned some hopes in good job of intelligences of several countries which foiled Mr Putin’s plans. Maybe it was naïve to think an action which everybody expects to happen is less likely, but the war should be about taking the enemy by surprise. Some experts claimed the invasion was unlikely during the Olympic Games, traditionally the time when warfare was on hold. They give an example of 2014 when the Crimea invasion occurred after the end of the event in Sochi. I suppose Mr Putin no longer gives a damn. Weather might play a bigger role. The north-eastern swathes of Ukraine are swampy and frozen ground would make it easier for heavy vehicles to move, so the time might be running out. On the other hand, some pundits say the positive temperature anomaly of 10 Celsius degrees might be conducive to Russians. Regardless of which version is right, it is disturbingly certain turbulent times are ahead.
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