Pandemic diary – weeks 105 & 106

Monday, 14 March 2022
In Warsaw first week-on-week increase in new cases since 28 January (peak of the omicron wave). One swallow does not make a summer, but the trend is to be observed.

Tuesday, 15 March 2022
Looking at statistics of new infections, the least affected region in Poland has been for a while Podkarpackie province, where less than 1 citizen in 10,000 is tested positive daily and positivity rate declined below 5%. Looks like a natural herd immunity.

Wednesday, 16 March 2022
New infections in Poland nudge up by 0.5%, still this is an outlier in a slight downward trend

Thursday, 17 March 2022
In South Korea 1 in 83 citizens tested positive. I thought the record would not be broken.

Friday, 18 March 2022
China sees the biggest COVID-19 outbreak since early 2020. The country follows zero-covid policy, hence two thousand cases per day bring the entire regions to a halt. Since strict lockdowns involve also factory closures, supply chain disruptions are expected.

Saturday, 19 March 2022
I belatedly spot a new forecast by MOCOS, whose quants foresee:
- a peak of new infections during the next wave on 1 April (7-day average of 18,320)
- deaths bottoming out at 70 on 30 March,
- hospitalisations bottoming out at 3,846 on 29 March.

Sunday, 20 March 2022
As I continue my volunteering, delivering packages for several spots collecting clothes, food and other stuff for Ukrainian refugees, I see an absolute loosening of rules, especially with respect of face covering. Only decent immunisation, either vaccine-induced or natural, prevents new infections from rising.

Monday, 21 March 2022
Vaccine uptake reporting on regional level is discontinued. Given waning post-vaccination immunity, it actually makes. For the record, the biggest percentage of population vaccinated with at least one dose on that day was in:
1. Wronki (81.21%),
2. Ustronie Morskie (80.98%),
3. Raszyn (80.06%),
4. Podkowa Leśna (79.06%),
5. Warsaw (77.73%).

Tuesday, 22 March 2022
For that day I predicted 500 million infections worldwide. Happily, I underestimated it by around 26 million.
The 7-day average of new infections declines below 10,000, where it last was on 5 November 2021. Once the figure declines below 3,800, i.e. below 1 in 10,000 citizens tested positive daily. Then I will switch back into monthly reporting (hopefully the sixth wave does not come over).

Wednesday, 23 March 2022
The United States is the first country in the world to report a round 1,000,000 of deaths due to COVID-19. In practice it is more than sure India during its delta wave in late April 2021 recorded a few million deceases, judging by excess mortality reported.

Thursday, 24 March 2022
The 7-day average of new deaths decreases below 100 in Poland. The figure was last that good on 5 November 2021. Hope it continues to decline!

Friday, 25 March 2022
The sideways trend of new infections, visible last week, has gone into a decline again. I hope it continues to go down, but wonder for how long.

Saturday, 26 March 2022
I wonder if BA.2 prompts China (and other Asian countries) to back out of the zero-covid policy. Those outbreaks cannot be contained without huge economic losses.