Pendolino – first trip

No photos since the camera in Szajsung packed up and I had no room in my briefcase to squeeze there my regular compact camera.

Had some business duties to handle in Gdansk last Tuesday. While looking for alternatives for how to get there I considered: car (by A2 and A1 motorways more than 400 kilometres, i.e. some four-hour drive in each direction would be requisite), airplane (prices of in-country flights have dropped recently, yet getting to the airport in Warsaw and in Gdansk and having to turn up at the airport an hour before take-off are a bit of a nuisance, plus getting corpo-sign-offs for plane travel is an even bigger nuisance. So… a penny drops – let’s go there by train – the new Pendolino service should be in place. I checked the timetable to learn the journey from Warszawa Centralna lasts these days less than three hours! Plus the cost is quite modest!

My train departs from Warsaw at 6:34 a.m. Lots of people around and passengers are from all walks of life. In a carriage my colleague with who I travel and I are accosted by a pissed-off male in his thirties. Not well-dressed, yet silver-mouthed. He boasts about kicking the air and knocking it down, then ask whether we know Johnny and whether he is still alive. Then he walks off. I wonder whether he has a ticket and what the crew has done with him. A woman in her late sixties has a long phone call with her lawyer and discusses with him how to disinherit her son who plans to marry a wrong woman. Why washing dirty linen in public?

The very train passes muster. The smell of modernity lingers, seats are comfortable, plenty of room to stretch out legs for tall people. In second class carriages you get one beverage free of charge. Since displays in carriages do not show current speed of the train, I have no idea how fast the train moves, but passengers do not feel uneasy at speeds exceeding 150 kmph. Punctuality beyond approach – train pulls up to Gdansk Głowny exactly at 9:33 a.m.

Since our destination is mere two miles from the train station and the meeting is scheduled at 10:30, we spare the New Factory a taxi expense and take a walk. Having done what we were supposed we and having two free hours before our Warsaw-bound train departs, we head towards old town. On our way we spot a building resembling Warsaw’s Hala Mirowska and drop in there to Bar Dominikanski eatery. Lunch portions are huge and prices very modest (below 20 PLN for a meal which leaves you full up) – I recommend the eatery for the sake of superb price-to-quality trade-off, although they could do with less grease ;-).

The Warsaw-bound train, whose actual route is from Gdynia to Krakow, arrives on time (2:34 p.m.) and comes to Warsaw also exactly on time (5:30 p.m.). This time we do not come across naughty passengers, yet the train carries mostly the air – does not bode well for improvement is PKP Intercity’s profitability which needs to rely on state subsidies to break even…

In terms of comfort, I have no reservations. Reliability of Pendolino trains will be fully tested by proper Polish winter (heavy snowfalls, temperatures below –20C – as for the latter it was claimed in advance the Italian trains do not withstand such low temperatures). In terms of price per one person it beats flights and car journeys. If two people travel and have no chance to buy tickets more than two weeks before journey date, going by car from Warsaw to Gdansk appears more economical (300 – 350 PLN for petrol and motorway tolls) than by Pendolino (4 times 120 PLN per ticket gives 480 PLN). When going by train you sit back and do not care, or you can spend the three-hour journey reading or working. When going by car you are more flexible, but the journey lasts a bit longer, is more tiresome and statistically far more dangerous. I shall be visiting the same destination a few times a year in the future, so Pendolino will most probably become the preferable means of getting there.

PS. This is not the advertisement of PKP Intercity, nor the eulogy for how things are moving ahead when Bronisław Komorowski is the president. I will be voting for Mr Komorowski, as for the lesser of two evils. Time to reiterate my opinion of him was much higher five years ago and generally his presidency has let me down, though it has been mediocre, yet predictable. Frankly speaking, despite being fundamentally against vision of Poland by PiS, I cannot promise not to change my mind. Mr Komorowski is intent on losing in a run-off. Tonight I will be watching the debate between the two candidates and I can bet Mr Duda beats Mr Komorowski in terms of preparation for discussion and in terms of image. The incumbent president and his henchmen work very hard to help Mr Komorowski move out of Krakowskie Przedmiescie…

Fever and fireworks

I’m experiencing another period of losing track of everything. Yesterday I learnt TVP had hosted a “debate” in which all candidates, except for the incumbent president, had taken part. Yesterday I found out the two candidates who will vie in the run-off had been grilled by TVN24 on Thursday and Friday. Yet I do not regret much missing out on the home straight of the campaign. Nothing that could have taken my breath away happened. This was the lull before the storm.

Today my parents and I strolled to the polling station later than usual, near midday. Timing affects the perception – coming to cast votes later meant we were not the only citizens fulfilling the civic duty, yet when I glimpsed at the list of registered voters from my streets, our signatures were put first.

Turnout of nearly 50% is quite decent, given the circumstances of general fatigue…

Exit polls results prove the adage “never say never” will never go outdated. Congratulations to Mr Duda for attaining what seemed almost impossible. A serious warning to Mr Komorowski – his poor score is the price paid for hubris. 20% of votes garnered by Mr Kukiz show either Poles ceased to treat politics seriously, or are so fed up with it that they yearn for radical change...

Curious to watch this story unfolding and see you in the run-off.

Polish presidential election in 2015…

The blog is a wonderful memory-refresher. It only takes to click “Polish presidential election in 2010” to bring back the sense of excitement with which I followed the run-up to the previous election, its course and ramifications. Five years ago I began blogging about the election several months in advance, a few weeks before Smolensk tragedy brought the election forward. Death of late president Lech Kaczynski and SLD-backed candidate, Jerzy Szmajdzinski, as well as sudden taking over as president-in-office by Mr Komorowski have left their mark on the campaign.

Five years ago politics at least brought about emotions. This year’s campaign is so lacklustre and bland that it can only exacerbate indifference of voters. The array of candidates and the way they run for presidency is a slap on the face to an educated voter. Prevalent weariness of politics among citizens should not come as a surprise then. Nevertheless, since minority of Poles entitled to vote will visit polling stations next Sunday (sadly, I fear turnout will not exceed 50%, nor even 40%), it is the last occasion to review the candidates…

1. Incumbent president, Bronislaw Komorowski. The style of his campaign closely resembles the style of his presidency. I recall in 2010 my opinion of Mr Komorowski was much better than today. As a head of state, he is just up-to-the-mark, predictable, yet mediocre, sagacious, yet committing one slip-up after another. Over the course of the campaign on top comatose and haughty. He holds his head up high and looks down on other candidates. Unreasonable statements, referring to other candidates’ competencies or calling the nation to settle the result in the first round, seemed out of place. Mr Komorowski is one of the most trusted politicians in Poland, yet on account of daft utterances, he has wasted much of the potential to win in the first round he had.

2. Andrzej Duda. Since Jarosław Kaczyński decided not to race for presidency, having in mind either ambitions to become a prime minister after parliamentary elections, or just fearing one more defeat by Mr Komorowski, Mr Duda was anointed as PiS’s candidate. Mr Duda builds his identity on heritage of late president Lech Kaczynski (he was a senior official in late president’s office). His image lacks the element of independent thinking, yet it will not be an obstacle for him in being the runner-up in the first round. Out of all candidates he has the biggest positive electorate of stalwart followers of PiS and the biggest negative electorate of other parties’ voters, who will never, ever put a cross against anyone affiliated with PiS. Oddly enough, Mr Duda does not strive to win over centrist voters. His hard-line stance on in-vitro, involvement in shielding credit unions from proper financial supervision and populist anti-Euro fear-mongering will rather put off moderate voters.

And now who stands a chance to get the third rank?

3. Janusz Korwin-Mikke. After swingeing victory in European Parliament last year, popularity of Mr JKM has only been on the rise. He ran for presidency in each single election after 1989, yet this is the first time he is quite likely to get support from voters higher than magnitude of statistical error. His advocates are mainly young males, yet many on account of not reaching the age of majority will not have the opportunity to vote…

4. Paweł Kukiz, a former rock-star, currently attempting to topple Polish politics. He declares he has no ambitions to be dubbed a politician and does much not to be treated as an actual politician. Unlike other candidates, who put on suits, he dons T-shirts during public appearances. He appeals to all Poles disillusioned with numbness of Polish political scene and calls on overthrowing the system. All in all, the essence of his agenda is to depose existing power-wielding gang, but what in return?

The two anti-systemic candidates above will conceivably garner some 15% of all votes; quite a lot if you keep in mind in mature democracies they would be both categorised as lunatics. Such high support for wacky candidates reflects on how much Poles are fed up with the never-ending battle between PO and PiS.

5. Adam Jarubas (the only one who lacks wikipedia entry in English). PSL was another party whose leader refused to run for presidency. The coalitional partner of PO decided to delegate the young, yet experienced marshal of Swietokrzyskie voivodeship for the presidential competition. Mr Jarubas emanates with energy and out of all party-backed candidates appears as the most independent-thinking. PSL has given him a lot of discretion in airing his views. He openly declares he would not sign Convention on preventing and combating violence against women and domestic violence, as the only meaningful candidate he is not eager to interfere in conflict between Russia and Ukraine and stresses Poland’s leading involvement in it has done us more harm than good, he stressed his scepticism towards Euro. Quite possibly Mr Jarubas might actually get a two-digit support and actually wish it on him, as he has potential to stand out in politics.

6. Magdalena Ogórek… Errr… There are several leftist politicians who have capacity to fulfil the role of president; Ryszard Kalisz and Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz just to mention two. But all sensible candidates have rejected proposals to run for presidency, SLD’s leader Leszek Miller also has not picked up the gauntlet and then out of blue, Mrs Ogórek emerged as an independent candidate, yet supported by SLD. I have no idea what the rationale behind that decision was and who masterminded this flop. Mrs Ogórek has set up her own way of running the campaign and apparently spiralled out of SLD’s control. Rumours about discord between Mrs Ogórek and her intendants from SLD have been denied, yet one can feel something is amiss. Mrs Ogórek, as the only woman running for presidency, is the prettiest candidate, yet I am not genuinely enchanted by her beauty. I actually can say little of her beauty, since I have not even seen her without make-up… Plus whenever I see her speaking, lack of naturalness is so eye-popping that I do not find her trustworthy.

7. Janusz Palikot. In 2011 he was a rising star of Polish politics. Nearly four years afterwards his value added seems questionable (unless as master of disaster). Most of his henchmen have turned their backs on him. His party was dissolved and Mr Palikot combats to survive in politics and tries to catch a straw. His core slogan is “I will do them justice”. As a president he promises to crack down on greedy priests, ill-run credit unions, squares named after late president Kaczynski and other things which often need to be brought into order, yet not by president, but through social change. I suppose 2015 will be a year of Palikot’s last gasp in politics.

Despite not having to, I have tried to make the content of this post possibly unbiased, not indicating my political preferences, nor dislikes. Frankly speaking, I have not made up my mind who to vote for next week. Back in March I seriously considered putting a cross against the incumbent president and sparing the public purse a run-off. Today I am sure Mr Komorowski does not deserve to celebrate the victory in the first round. He will have to take the extra effort and vie with Mr Duda. So time for tactical voting will come in the run-off, while next Sunday most probably I will put crosses against all candidates. I will be among a few percent of voters disgruntled with what the political class in Poland stand for, yet not totally indifferent… And such percentage of null votes will not prove any irregularities!

Great people depart, ordinary people depart

The sudden departure of professor Władysław Bartoszewski is not just a loss of an outstanding witness of twentieth century’s atrocious history and meritorious advocate of dialogue and forgiveness in international relations. It is, as many claim, another milestone towards the end of a certain era. The last representatives of WW2 survivors generation are slowly passing away, the same will happen soon to the last imprisoned in Stalinist times, in decades veterans of Solidarity will also grow less numerous. This is, inevitably, history in the making.

Media, not only Polish, are full of memoirs and obituaries of Mr Bartoszewski, since the professor was recognised and appreciated well beyond borders of Poland. For me Mr Bartoszewski symbolised the power of individualism and was awe-inspiring example of brilliant intellectual strength despite grand old age. As for the former, Mr Bartoszewski excelled at striking a balance between speaking out what he thought and not hurting anyone. As for the latter, he proved keeping up intellectual activity can help preserve mental fitness of a man in his 60s. Despite being 93, until his last days he was involved in public issues. He made his last appearance mere five days before the decease and was due to make another one tomorrow.

His lifeline, long and broad, was cut unexpectedly. In a TV interview given on his 80^th birthday, he confessed he feared a day when he would be still physically alive, yet not understanding what was going on around. As he wished, this day has never come, senility has never taken over him. Maybe thus he met his destination, he lived on the run and passed away on the run, so may we remember him that way.

The departure of aunt Krysia, my maternal’s grandmother’s cousin and my mother’s godmother also struck as a bolt from the blue. Aunt was 85, yet despite that age still mentally and physically fit. I last saw her on 14 March, the day after her name-day and in the eve of my grandma’s death. I thought when my grandma was at her age she was also so full of energy. Even on the day she passed away nothing presage the oncoming tragedy. Just like Mr Bartoszewski a few days later, she fainted in her flat, was taken to a hospital where she died.

Not my immediate relative, yet a loss. Aunt Krysia and her sister Anna Sabina (who died in 2005) gave my maternal grandmother and her sister shelter when they were driven out from Warsaw by Germans after Warsaw Uprising. For my mother aunt was the last person who spent a lot of time with her mother with who she could recollect her mother. As a child, I used to spend around a month each summer in aunt Krysia and her sister’s flat in Piaseczno. They looked after my cousins and me when our mothers had to go to work.

On the professional front, a farewell to a 34-year-old talented manager working for one of the New Factory’s competitors. He died suddenly in a hotel during a business trip to one of Poland’s major cities. He was survived by a partner with who he had two small children. As it turns out, you will not know the date, nor the hour…

Hope we have run out of misery for a while and the blog will not resemble an obituary column at least in the coming months. Next week an overdue note on the imminent presidential election. What the campaign and candidates stand for is a crying shame, yet the issue is too serious to escape my notice.

Bogowie - film review

Customarily, long overdue, yet up for the release. The film biography of professor Zbigniew Religa, outstanding Polish cardiac surgeon, who first carried out a successful heart transplant in Poland, was hailed one of the best Polish films that went to the silver screen in 2014. The film received accolades and awards predominantly for the superiorly played role of the main character, so hats off to Tomasz Kot who did a splendid job of rendering what Mr Religa was like. The film is not just the memoirs of one of the most prominent individuals in the history of Polish medicine, or the homage paid to professor Religa. Its plot is multi-faceted and thread of Mr Religa’s endeavours to perform a successful heart transplant is intertwined with many other themes, likewise imperative to make the film whole.

Bogowie is about attaining the impossible. The plot is set in the 1980s and covers only a few most important years in Mr Religa’s biography; the period when as a surgeon in his mid-40s against all odds he attempts to overcome numerous impediments and perform a surgery that to almost everyone else seems out of reach.

The obstacles Mr Religa faces broadly have two ever-lasting dimensions: the system and the people. Bear in mind the story plays out in Poland in post-martial-law bleak mid-1980s; times of economic misery and social indifference. The slowly crumbling communist system was depicted incisively and with details worth remembering. The film can remind younger audience health care was quite well-developed in countries of the Soviet bloc. In terms of progress in medicine and access to health-care institutions communist countries had probably the littlest distance to catch up with the higher developed West. Talented young doctors, mostly those inconvenient for their superiors, were allowed to take internships in Western clinics and see cutting-edge development in the medicine. Obviously, they had to meet sullen individuals from the communist secret services and sign relevant papers; of course the choice criteria for foreign internships were flawed, yet plenty of young, up-and-coming doctors could bring a breath of fresh air to the Polish backwater. At that time the system, if you did not try to overthrow it, was not your biggest enemy and as it turned out, if you could make some concessions (Mr Religa at first avows he will never join the party and then goes back on his own promise to get a state subsidy), it could play along with you and somehow help you do your bit.

Much more nefarious than the system were the people. Depiction of senior, hard-line doctors, reluctant to move the Polish medicine ahead, discouraging the young generation from striving to attain the impossible, and laughing off their ambitions, is repulsive. In medicine, if the picture in the film is not distorted, the people, not the system, were to blame for backwardness of Poland. The ossified system, founded on the domination of old professors, was a drag on medical progress. In the film you could see something common back in the 1980s, namely the convention of addressing your superior per pan, while your superior would turn to you per ty, lack of symmetry today unthinkable in most places.

The film highlights the dark side of the Polish nature. “A Pole envies a fellow Pole even a calamity”, the sentence of a doctor who first, unsuccessfully, attempted to carry out a heart transplant, is meant to tell you in this cruel world you should not count anyone would support you, if you pull it off, your accomplishment will be detracted from, if you slip up, your failure will bring joy to your foes.

The film is about balancing humility and resilience. Knowing one’s own limitations is essential in doctor’s work and pursuit of one’s ambitions at all costs is absolutely reprehensible. Yet, some sort of obstinacy and determination not to give up is crucial if the path towards success is long, winding and full of obstacles. Stumbling, falling and the rising up must be counted in at the onset of the pursuit.

It is a film about ethics and risk management. The link between the two is elusive, yet worth paying attention to. In theory of economics you distinguish between pure risk and speculative risk. The former is observable when the outcome can be either neutral or negative. A good example is a risk of having a traffic accident – you either do not have an accident and are neither better off, nor worse off, or you have an accident and are worse off. An example of the latter is speculation on financial market – prices can move both favourably and unfavourably for you, you stand a chance of either losing or wining. At first glance, in the case of the heart transplant neither type of risk is exhibited. You face a situation which in theory of economics should never occur. The outcome might be either neutral or positive. A patient can either die soon or their life can be extended. From the ethical point of view, the dilemma is however more complicated, since by attempting to perform a heart transplant you might also accelerate the patient’s decease. The decision what to do rests than with a doctor who has sworn “not to harm”. The definition of harming can be vague as well. For older, backward doctors, putting the life of a patient who was bound to die within a few weeks at peril, fitted the definition of inflicting a harm. For Mr Religa, this was the price to pay for progress allowing to extend by several years lives of thousands of people.

Finally, the film is about striking a balance between career and personal life. Mr Religa in his pursuit of a method of saving lives of millions neglect his family. It not because he loves his job that much, it is because he wants to help people so much. The question which arises naturally then is whether outstanding individuals who want to sacrifice their lives to do something for posterity should raise families? Or maybe their families should be more lenient?

The film contains scenes of surgeries on open heart and it reminded me why I could not be a doctor. At such sights I nearly feel like passing out. Well, if everyone was cut out for every role, economic progress would have been far slower I guess…

Headway in local infrastructure

1. Park and Ride Metro Stokłosy

When the ground-level, open-air car park for commuters near Metro Stokłosy was closed in October 2013, the revamped parking facility was scheduled to be opened on 15 Janaury 2015. The completion deadline has been met, since by all accounts the car park was finished before the end of 2014, yet it took one quarter more for the general contractor to fix all glitches, put finishing touches and for town hall clerks to issue the occupancy permit for the car park.

At long last, P+R Stokłosy was opened on 1 April 2015. It was supposed to be opened at 4:30 a.m., but when I pulled up there around 7:00 a.m., a chap from technical crew told me the facility was not yet opened. Turned away, I had to drive, for the last time so far, to P+R Ursynów. Quite probably, the car park staff were under-informed, or played an April Fool’s Day’s joke on me. During the press conference staged on the same day by the Public Transport Authority and some officials from the town hall, including deputy mayor, parked cars could be seen in the background.

The car park has the parking charge collection system identical to the one at P+R Ursynów. Once you drive in, you need to collect a parking ticket from the machine. A regular charge for parking is 100 PLN, however it can be cancelled if before leaving the facility a driver authenticates they are in a possession of at least daily public transport ticket. For the time being the system is defunct and gates are opened all the time. Beware though and do not try to use P+R Stokłosy as an overnight garage for you vehicle. On 2 April I witnessed some dim-witted chaps who left their rickety lorry there for the night-time maintenance break and found a billing note beneath wipers. A board with the list of rules and regulations is in front of the entrance, so ignorance of law is not an excuse.

It has been a subject of a heated debate among inhabitants of Ursynów, whether this huge box of painted concrete (the facility will serve also as bus terminus) is a blot on the landscape of Al. KEN, the thoroughfare of Ursynów. Developments on both sides of Al. KEN have been put up in 1990s or later, upon completion of underground line and are quite uniform. P+R Stokłosy’s structure is a misfit. Park and Ride facility at Okęcie tram and bus terminus, of similar architectural style, fits much better the surrounding area.

The car park offers space for almost 400 cars and only 20 bicycles. As for the latter, the number of spots for bike users is horrifically low, while the car parking capacity in the first weeks of usage is utilized in less than 20%, although users of alternative P+Rs have been duly notified P+R Stokłosy had been opened. The new car park has four levels, but from my observations in afternoon (around 5 p.m.) the ground level is not filled up, let alone the empty spaces above it.

Despite some grumbling, I generally appreciate the new car park. It shortens the distance covered by car each day and lengthens the distance covered underground (I sometimes feel like a mole, spending over 20 minutes in the morning and in the afternoon below ground), moreover it helps avoid the most congested in afternoon section of ul. Puławska between ul. Poleczki and ul. Płaskowickiej (hint: ul. Taneczna, Krasnowolska, Poloneza and Ludwinowska come up as excellent detour). All in all, it brings some time and money savings, yet you have to use your brains to work out swinging east to leave a car there is superior to taking a straight-forward route to P+R Wilanowska for instance.

2. Ul. Mleczarska – progress report.

Traditionally, we start from the south, although when yesterday I strolled there to inspect how works moved on, I walked southwards (snaps by Szajsung).

The section from ul. Syrenki almost up to the railway crossing is nearly finished. The pavement on the east side is ready, as the cycling past on western side of the street is. The very road still lacks the top-most abrasive layer of tarmac and most probably it will not be laid until the very last days of construction (heavy vehicles use this road to reach construction site, to the decision to leave this section a little unfinished is reasonable).

I wonder whether all arrangements between the investor and owner (PGNiG Termika) or administrator (DB Rail Schenker) of the rail track running to Siekierki plant have been finalised. Not a single step has been taken to initiate modernisation of the railway crossing, while on both sides of the tracks construction of the road is more or less advanced…

The section between the tracks and ul. Energetyczna has taken shape since the beginning of March. Pavement and cycling path have been marked out. Laid curbs indicate the road will be slightly winding. One can also see an intersection with a road running into plot of former bus and trolleybus depot (torn down a few years ago). Cart well before horse. Modern lamps post have been put up yet the old ones, carrying overhead electricity wires, remain. The development could do with a more comprehensive approach.

Looking at four-lane ul. Energetyczna towards ul. Puławska. One can discern where two roads will run, yet without peeking at plans beforehand, one will not make out where a huge roundabout, replacing traditional intersection of ul. Mleczarska and ul. Energetyczna will be built.

The section between ul. Energetyczna and ul. Mleczarska is least advanced. The new road will be shifted west in relation to its previous trail. The nut tree first from the left will have to chopped down to give way to the cycling path.

And the last photo (finer playing part of an intruder), taken from the corner of ul. Krasickiego in NI and ul. Mleczarska. The fence of the property at the south-west corner of the intersection was pulled down and new, makeshift one, put up. Some pipes have also been laid underground, below the dug up parcel of land parallel to the road. According to my neighbour (allegedly having it on good authority), works will kick off here for good in May and completion deadline of 30 June 2015 is not in question. We shall see :)

"We're here only in passing"

24 July 2010

My paternal grandparents are both 84, they still manage on their own, but one day they’ll surely depart. When? How will I react? Uncertainty crops up once again…

Easter, on the word of Christian beliefs, the celebration of rebirth. Christians trust Jesus died and resurrected and so one day all His followers will. This belief is meant to fill people with hope that life does not cease at the moment of demise. One’s soul just enters a different dimension, a transition to another phase in the pursuit of eternal life.

Rozłąka naszym losem.

Spotkanie naszą nadzieją.

Fate parts us, but we ought to hope one day we will reunite. Faith, whether Christian, or any other, is probably meant to help people cope with bereavement.

Recent departure of my grandma was not my first close encounter to death. Six and a half years ago my maternal grandfather passed away. The two deceases made me ponder upon the nature of death, as a down-to-earth, yet an immensely complicated phenomenon. In medical terms a decease is a moment when functions of a human body come to a halt, heart ceases to beat, brain stops working (to be more precise these processes do not have to terminate at the same moment). In some spiritual context, the body dies down, yet the soul might fly away from the body. In psychological dimension the passage from “alive” to “dead” state means a human being once “is” and then “is not”, something one can find hard to comprehend.

You could argue whether every death brings out comparable feelings of sorrow leaving out extreme examples, such as death of Stalin, which filled millions of people with joy and hope for communist regime thawing out). Perception and coping with death from what I have observed depends on combination of three factors:

1) Whether a person died young, pre-maturely or naturally, out of old age. It seems it easier to come to terms with a decease of a person who passes away having lived until the grand old age, since being born and dying are an indispensable part of each human’s existence and whenever someone’s lifeline ends naturally rather is being cut across.

2) Whether a departure is expected or sudden. A death preceded by long illness helps relatives prepare (if possible at all) to cope with bereavement. A death which strikes out of the blue comes a much bigger shock to family of the deceased.

3) Whether a death is quick or long-lasting. A fast decease, which does not cause a dead person suffer a lot before breathing their last might give some comfort to their relative, while a long-lasting death means usually many people suffer together with the terminally ill.

My recent experience tells me it is somewhat easier to reconcile to loss of grandma if I bear in mind she lived long in good health, I had some time to face up to the thought the decease is inexorable (half a year ago I knew chances she would recover were low, more than two weeks before death it became clear it was just a matter of time). The worst period for me was essentially “the wait”, since without going into details grandma’s farewell with this world lasted exactly two weeks, during which she knew what was going on with her and suffered badly. Doctors in the hospital could at best ease her pain and wait.

The first half of March has brought on thoughts on one of the controversial ethical issues in the public discourse – euthanasia, a dilemma I had had no clear-cut opinion on. Now I am sure I am against it. I have realised departure has to ensue naturally, no matter how long the pre-death agony lasts. I cannot imagine anyone from the family instructing a doctor to put grandma out of misery. Yet I have to confess the phone call from the hospital which woke us up before dawn on 15 March brought a bit of relief that grandma no longer suffered.

Those two weeks also triggered the question about the sense of suffering. I doubt there can be any good answer to it. Suffering is a part of divine plan and we as humans should not interfere.

Grandma was buried in a relatively new part of cemetery in Skolimow. After the funeral I looked around to learn grandma’s grave is surrounded by graves of people who died in their 50s, 60s or early 70s. I found only three graves of people aged above 80 the moment they passed away and only one grave of a 91-year-old woman, older than my grandma. That sample of burial grounds could give lie to a rising life expectancy, yet if our goal is other than calling into question statistics, the conclusion is only one – the surrounding graves symbolise far too many premature deceases…

The day after the funeral I had to take a business trip to a client seated some 50 kilometres from Poznan. Since four persons were travelling and the destination was far away from the nearest train station, it was most convenient and economical to go by a company car. Imagine the distance from Poznan to Warsaw can be covered within less than two and a half hours. Horrifyingly, driving 200 kmph at the motorways is ordinary for most sales representatives and senior managers having company cars at their disposal, who do not have to worry about sky-high petrol consumption but have too little time to waste it on slow driving. Oddly enough most of those people have small children, yet the thought their (and not only their) offspring could become semi-orphans far too early does not put them off lunatic driving. Well, maybe the word “lunatic” is not the most suitable, since the driver was confident and we did not have any situation threatening an accident, yet the very speed of 200 kmph is excessive.

Memento mori… Jesteśmy tu tylkona chwilę

Meanwhile on the markets

The recent weeks brought some noteworthy developments on financial markets, some particularly worth highlighting and commenting on. Observations of how markets behave leads me to conclude my academic grasp of economic theorems is being rendered obsolete, while new paradigms unfold…

1. Interest rates

In early March Poland’s monetary authorities decreased the policy rate by 50 basis points, to (yet another) record-low 1.50%. In terms of historical levels of central bank’s rates, the current level appears hazardously low, however put into broader perspective, Poland’s monetary policy does not come out as extremely easy. Absolute level of interest rates is among the highest in the EU and oddly enough, real interest rates have not been that high since many years. Current real rate is around 3% (1.50% policy rate + 1.60% y/y deflation), while in the past years inflation-adjusted interest rates would not seldom run into negative territory. Do notice this reasoning bears some simplification, since inflation records are backward-looking while interest rates as of today refer to future periods and time mismatch exists.

The Polish central bank’s governor has also stressed there was no room for further monetary easing and over the coming months monetary authorities would take the “wait and see” approach. The only justification for such scale of monetary loosening is the ongoing deflation, which however is spurred by factors beyond central bank’s control. By slashing interest rates to record-low levels the central bank only adjusted its policy to evolution of price level in the economy (the question remains whether NBP would be capable of swiftly reacting to increasing inflation). Lower interest rates will not kick-start the economy, as it is expanding in a healthy and sustainable pace, consumption will also not be much stimulated, since propensities to spend, save and borrow are driven by several other more meaningful factors than monetary policy. Consequently, the most aggrieved by the recent rate cut are depositors whose savings do not grow as fast as they would like to be.

The other group hit are banks. They “suffer” (i.e. fall short of their shareholders’ expectations towards profits reaped in Poland) because rate decrease is followed by drop in cap on interest rates they are allowed to charge borrowers which is 4 times central bank’s lending rate, now 4 times 2.50%, i.e. 10%. Evidently banks find several ways of circumventing the regulation. Quite recently I learnt an up-front fee for a cash loan is on average 10% these days. In practice it means if you want to borrow let’s say 10,000 PLN you either effectively have to borrow 11,000 (and pay interest on it) or effectively get only 9,000 (but pay interest on 10,000). Banks will pass the unfavourable impact of monetary policy to their clients, as they will do with an increased deposit insurance fund contribution. The fund, intact between 2001 and 2014, has been recently depleted by 3 billion PLN to fund payments to depositors who had entrusted their money to insolvent credit unions (since October 2012 covered by deposit insurance system and the same rules of financial supervision as banks). The fraudulent activity of credit unions has been harnessed for full-blown mud-slinging in the current presidential campaign, yet this is a topic for another post…

Worth also mentioning the financial watchdog issued a warning to banks against evaluating mortgage loan applicants creditworthiness based on current interest rates and show clients stress simulations, i.e. how their instalments would rise if interest rates increased by a specific number of basis points. A commendable move, given currently granted mortgage loans could turn out to be a time bomb akin to CHF-denominated mortgages foisted upon client when the Swiss France cost not much above 2 PLN. Seven years ago Polish central bank’s policy rate was 6%. Unless a new paradigm emerges (i.e. interest rates higher than zero being an abnormal phenomenon), return of interest rates to such level within 25 or 30 years when mortgage loan is to be repaid, is definitely conceivable.

2. Stock market

Since taking up the job with the New Factory I am subject to stringent restrictions on trading, hence in order to avoid requesting approval for each single transaction, reporting transactions ex-post after each trade, reporting not executed trades and submitting breakdowns of orders and transactions at the end of each reporting period, I terminated my brokerage account and spare myself adrenaline by putting all my money into saving accounts and term deposits.

WIG, the broad market index covering almost the entire universe of stocks listed on Warsaw Stock Exchange, performed quite well in the first quarter of this year. It must be noted this index is a total return index, i.e. takes into account dividend income, in contrast to for instance WIG20, covering 20 biggest in terms of market capitalisation companies on WSE.

For this index I deliberately have chosen 10Y time interval for comparison, to illustrate for over two years the index has been in a clearly sideways trend. WIG20 is a price index, hence its readouts fail to reflect dividend income distributed to shareholders, which may make up a large portion of income, since many of index’s components are state-controlled cash cows whose dividends are a vital source of money to the government budget. Yet the chart clearly indicates those who invested in the index portfolio four years ago might not have broken even, even despite reaping several generous dividends.

Conclusions: the discrepancy between broad-market WIG index and blue-chip WIG20 index reflects not only differences in calculation formula but also the fact smaller companies outperform larger. WIG is hence a better business cycle gauge, yet not only because of its width. WIG20 composition is quite specific and not well-diversified. Banks have a large weight in the index, besides mining, oil and gas and electricity are strongly represented in the WIG20, making the index undesirably reliant on sentiments in a few industries and to regulatory and market environment having substantial impact on earnings of companies underlying the index.

3. Currency market

USD/PLN, here the pair purposely presented over 10Y horizon, has recently hit its 10-year high of 3.95 (some 0.05 higher than in memorable February 2009). The psychological barrier of 4.00 has not been even neared. Unlike six years ago, it was not the weakness of Polish zloty, but the strength of the US currency that drove USD/PLN quotations to exorbitantly high levels.

Polish currency recently has been amazingly stable as never before in its history which is well illustrated by EUR/PLN quotations. For more than two years, EUR/PLN has not broken out of quite narrow range from 4.00 to 4.30, while most of the time it stayed between 4.10 and 4.20. Such volatility is characteristic for mature markets. What also needs to be underlined, level on which the exchange rate has stabilised is neutral for the Polish economy, i.e. it well strikes balance between ensuring competitiveness of Polish exports and fending off prohibitive prices of imported goods. The issue of EUR adoption in Poland is also intensively exploited in the presidential campaign.

The divergence between skyrocketing USD/PLN and fairly stable EUR/PLN must lie on cross pair, EUR/USD. Quotes of the most liquid currency pair in the world dropped for a moment below 1.05 in the second week of March, thus also hitting 10Y low and then bounced back, yet remain below 1.10. The quaint FX rate movement reflects relative strength of the US economy and imminent monetary tightening (although Fed’s declaration interest rates will not be jacked up very soon brought appreciation of USD to a halt) as well as doldrums in which the EU economy is, compounded by increased scale of quantitative easing pursued by the ECB.

And for the very end, CHF/PLN quotations for which in my view the most relevant period for observation is three months. After shooting up on 15 January 2015, the Swiss currency slowly depreciated and CHF/PLN levelled off around 3.90, some 8% higher than before the SNB spun its currency out of control. For the indebted in CHF, impact of rising CHF/PLN has been well offset by negative LIBOR (currently near –0.85%) Polish banking sector’s concerted spread decrease (banks have not done it off their own bat, but have been coerced by financial sector watchdog). Mortgage debts of many households are now some 8% higher than in late 2014, yet their monthly debt service cash flow has not been hit.

4. Commodities

For sake of brevity I will focus only on crude oil prices that were searching for trough in second and third decade of January 2015. The subsequent rebound was a typical reaction of speculators to clearly oversold market. The scale of incline in the first half of February 2015 was impressive, since Brent oil price went up by some 30% within two weeks. In March oil quotations were very volatile, best proven by price fluctuations over the last two trading days. On 26 March oil went up by 5% in the wake of news of military action in Yemen to retreat by 5% on 27 March and wipe out almost the whole price increase from the previous day.

The question which naturally comes up these days is where the markets are heading. The only answer that naturally comes up to my mind is “I have no idea”. The most intensive period of my study of economics fell into 2008-2010, the run-up to the financial crisis, its most severe phase and early recovery. Near-zero interest rates at that time were considered a temporary measure employed to buoy up economies. Today, after six and a half years of ultra-loose monetary policies and no prospect of returning to long-term average levels of interest rates in developed economies one should ask what the current level of neutral interest rate in Taylor rule equation is.

I cannot even tell you in which phase of the traditionally defined business cycle we are. In Poland in 2000s we could witness recovery, early upswing, late upswing and downturn, in second half of 2009 we saw recovery, late upswing was in 2011, then the Polish economy slowed to record sluggish growth in 1Q2013. Are we now in early upswing or in late upswing? Needless to say, with hindsight it is easier to judge. But if we bear in mind stock market is said to be good indicator of future trends in the economy and it has been flat or mildly rising in the past months, economic growth should slightly accelerate. Economists’ forecasts in unison foresee a period of flat, but stable growth of 3% - 4% until 2017. Overly optimistic? Economists’ dreams of smoothed out business cycle fluctuations coming true? Time will only tell. One thing I am pretty sure of is that there might be many external shocks which may shatter all plausible projections. Keep the faith though.

M2

Just for the record – quite possibly today morning we witnessed the last gasp of winter in Warsaw. After several days of spring-like weather, last night brought frost and light dusting of snow. Skies cleared up around 8 a.m. and all the snow disappeared by midday. Next week temperature is foreseen to shoot up to nearly +20C. Roll on spring!

Again, a belated post, partly compiled almost two weeks ago, shortly after the opening of the second underground line, slightly updated and extended today.

Making it ot the anything but grand opening of the second underground line two weeks ago was out of question, so I tried it out the next day, on Monday morning. I was not the only one to document (photos by Szajsung) the first ride – see a much broader coverage by Michael (the fellow blogger visited all stations east of Świętokrzyska).

To the right – one of passages between the first and the second line on Świętokrzyska station. When first using this link, I was unaware of the existence of another far more convenient passage between the lines, which is faster, does not require passengers to go through ticket gates and on top is well-hidden. Despite this one flaw, I have to admit generally the signage is up to the mark in the stations of second underground line.

I took a train to the western end of the line, to Rondo Daszyńskiego station. This formerly industrial part of Warsaw is rapidly turning into a business district with hundreds thousands square metres of office space in use and under construction. The underground trains will definitely facilitate transport for thousand of corpo-workers having to get here and from here, making it much friendlier location to work than ghastly Służewiec Przemysłowy. I took the snap just from the entrance to the station, however to properly depict the modern office-districts landscape, I should have taken the photo from the south-eastern corner of Rondo Daszyńskiego.

The east-bound carriages running in the morning from Rondo Daszyńskiego were nearly empty. It does not imply that second underground line runs idle. According to recently published statistics its trains carry on average 106,701 passengers per day (vs. roughly half a million taking the first, much longer line). Besides, it takes time before passengers change their habits and get convinced to the fastest possible way of moving around town.

As pointed up by many, on the first working day most escalators on newly opened Rondo ONZ station were broken down. True, this was a nuisance, however technical crews swiftly mended the machinery and during the subsequent two weeks I did not notice a single technical defect. When it comes to technicalities, I also noticed many passengers encountered problems handling new glass-made ticket gates (seemingly so simple to use). Fortunately, the transport authority envisaged such situations and sent several assistants to help passengers find their way in newly opened facilities. I only wonder how long before the more complicated gates begin to pack up since their technical complexity and thus potential for defects is much higher than in old gates on first line stations.

To the right – view towards the station entrance to the station, photo taken in the vicinity of Rondo ONZ. For many corpo-workers keeping late hours in Rondo 1 and other nearby office buildings the underground trains should mean commuting improvement. From my perspective, the time saved thanks to it is less than five minutes. Compared to the previous route, i.e. taking a tram between Metro Pole Mokotowskie and Rondo ONZ (six stops), riding the underground does not requite waiting on the traffic light to cross two streets on Rondo ONZ, moreover the underground is not halted by traffic lights on intersections along the way. Having to swing east and change trains, rather than moving slower, but straight ahead, takes the gloss of smoother rides by underground. I will defnitely appreciate the underground during inclement or extreme weather. Taking a shelter will be preferable to being exposed to over +25C heat, less than -10C chill, downpours or heavy snow.

Now looking forward to opening the rebuilt park and ride facility near Metro Stokłosy. The huge car park for almost 400 cars, 100 bikes and bus terminus have been finished a few weeks ago and since then have been waiting for better days, fenced off from hundreds of potential users. In early February I ventured there to see the development had been completed and asked a security guard whether he knew the opening date. He only shrugged his shoulders and shared my discontent with the fact no one can use the new car park. From what I heard on the radio last week, the general contractor is to put all finishing touches and fix minor glitches by the end of March and then technical inspections are to set about. Feasible opening date – second week of April (the one after Easter.)

Grandma

My paternal grandmother was born on 3 November 1925 in the village of Skolimow, today a part of Konstancin-Jeziorna in a poor family. Before the outbreak of World War II she completed seven-year primary school. During the Nazi occupation her family's penury even worsened, since grandma's father was killed by Germans in February 1943.

After the end of the war she met my grandfather. They got married in October 1948; almost one year after the nuptials ceremony she gave brith to my father. Four years later my uncle was born.

She spent most of her adult life sharing her time between running the house, bringing up sons and work in shoe polish factory in Konstancin.

In mid 1980s she retired to help my aunt and uncle look after my cousin and then to take care of her ailing mother, the only great grandparent I barely remember, who died in March 1991. Her younger brother died in January 2011, while she stayed in good health, both physically and mentally fit despite quite advanced age.

In the recent years she was the first to look after my grandfather after his several stays in the hospital. His recovery has to be credited to her dedication and sacrifice, made at the expense of neglected progressing osteoporosis which sent her nearly bed-ridden in July 2014. Fortunately, for next over half a year she could get up from bed from time to time and still remained fully mentally sound almost until her very last days. 

Grandma passed away today, aged 89. She was survived by a husband, two sons, two grandsons and one great grandson.

I shall remember the last words grandma told me on 21 February, during our last conversation when she was entirely conscious: Przestań się wreszcie uczyć i znajdź sobie dziewczynę, bo jak rodzice umrą, to zostaniesz sam na świecie i umrzesz też sam. Home truth. Grandma tended to be coarse at times... The priest who came a week later with last rites sighed and told grandma she should be happy to be surrounded by the family, since more and more often he sees elderly people who do have children and grandchildren, departing in solitude.