First prang

Just three weeks ago my Guardian Angel told me “Don’t drive aggressively as you did recently – you haven’t had any accident and may it stay so”. I have mended my ways in terms of style of driving and avoid risky manoeuvres, but there are several other factors that can contribute to accidents on the road. I had my first one, a scrape, rather than a full-scale collision, yesterday.

Funnily enough, I didn’t damage my own car, nor my father’s car…

The post for today was meant to be titled “Renault Clio IV – driving impressions”. I decided to accept a personal invitation for a test drive from the local dealership where I have my old Megane serviced and ventured there yesterday. Before setting out, I dropped in on the near garage, where I had my tyres changed for the winter ones. Forecasters had warned of winter attack over a week ago and arranged the visit, so the weather has not caught me napping (yesterday Warsaw saw the first snowfall this autumn, quite heavy). The difference between summer and winter tyres is noticeable, mostly on a slush which was on the roads yesterday. The car holds the road much better, reacts differently when accelerator and brake pedals are used. It’s all obvious…

I drove to Konstancin, took a test drive as scheduled. I was only stunned by the car’s magnificent design and drove rather carefully as the car lacked winter tyres and actually wasn’t impressed by the dynamics of 0.9 litre turbocharged engine. To get back to the dealership I had to make a u-turn on the roundabout with traffic lights. I drove through such roundabouts several times, including this one, with which I was familiar. I knew very well a green light on one road allowed me to turn left, where I would encounter another, red light for a perpendicular road, before which I should have stopped. It was a moment of my inattention or lapse of concentration and I realised it a bit of too late, just ahead of the traffic light and ahead of another road. I skimmed on the brakes, but did not avoid rubbing against the left side of another vehicle, moving straight ahead on the perpendicular road. My fault…

Damages: first of all, no injuries to people travelling in both cars (at such low speed little bad could happen), brand new Renault Clio had its front bumper severely scratched and number plate board ripped off, Fiat Palio Weekend had both left doors sternly scratched and slightly dented and side lath on driver’s door torn away. Both cars were still roadworthy.

First advice in such situations: stay calm and plead guilty if you are. Any attempt to shirk responsibility is an open invitation for the owner of a damaged car to call the police. It only make things worse – who needs a fine of a few hundred zlotys on top of the collision? Both the Fiat driver and a salesman who travelled with me as a passenger kept cool heads. We all drove to the dealership to write out a “culprit’s statement” (in which I concede I had caused the accident) to secure covering the costs of repair of the Fiat by the Renault’s insurer. In the meantime mechanics from Renault garage reattached the number plate to the new Clio so that other clients could test the car. Then I looked after my own business and made sure Renault’s own damage insurance policy also covered all damages inflicted by clients, so the insurer would not have recourse to me. The only way the prang will hit my wallet is that instead of having a maximum, 60% third-party liability motor insurance discount next year, I will see it go down from 50% to 40% (assuming no accident along the way) and it will take two years to reach the maximum amount (expected loss over two years: roughly 300 PLN – still little compared to cost of repairing two damaged cars which I estimate would be between 3,000 and 5,000 PLN). I could of course try to conceal the collision, but my data will be recorded in the central registry of culprit, run by Insurance Guarantee Fund and available for all motor insurers, so it would not pay off…

Yesterday’s smash-up only borne out how I have changed. When over two years ago I dented the front bumper in (then my father’s) Megane I reacted very emotionally and didn’t feel like sitting behind the wheel the next day, but my father forced to me to overcome the trauma. Yesterday I stayed very calm, not to make things worse and secure my interests. Then I cleared my car of snow and drove safely back home, told my parents about the prang, informed about it on facebook… A lesson learnt – drive more carefully.

Funnily enough, I have driven around 15,000 kilometres, almost all with my car, went for a short (less than 10 kilometres) trip with a dealer’s car and damaged it, while saving my own one. Actually if the same had happened if I had driven my Megane: (1) the accident might have not happened, as Clio was on summer tyres and on winter tyres the car might have stopped, (2), even if I crashed, I wouldn’t decide to repair my car, I would just carry on driving with scratched front bumper…

As long as nobody is injured and only cars are damaged, there’s no point in dwelling on an accident. Accidents happen and will happen, but I hope I won’t have any, even such minor scrape in the future…

Camera breakdown

Once Scatts (mate, are you with us?) outlined a clear distinction between photography andsnapping. He identifies the former with high-flying art of documenting the surrounding world and the latter as thoughtless, quantity-oriented pressing buttons of cameras. For months I’d been trying to assign myself to one of the two categories and probably should wind up as one of those who Scatts scornfully calls ‘snappers’. On one hand I adore and can appreciate good quality photography, take pleasure in watching magnificent photos and like taking photos, but on the other I have too many features of an ordinary snapper. I’m slightly fond of photography, but it would be an understatement if I told photography is my hobby. Firstly, because I spend too far little time and money for it and secondly because I don’t possess professional equipment a photography freak must have*.

My equipment is typical for an amateur who needs to take shots on holiday, during social events and in other odd occasions that need to be documented. I have a compact Canon (PowerShot A460), bought in July 2007. The camera had served me quite well for over five years and despite its age and low-end characteristics, it generally would meet my needs. It could have done with a better optical zoom (4 times often doesn’t magnify as much as I would like to), picture stabiliser and could shoot films in higher resolution, but all in all I was satisfied with what my small (a big advantage, especially when you can slip it into an inside pocket of your jacket) Canon offered me. When describing my camera I had to switch to the past forms, because the camera doesn’t serve me any more…

I took the last normal snap with it on 23 August at 18:21, just upon leaving the office, to document heavy, as for holiday period and late rush hour, traffic on ul. Towarowa, jammed in both ways (to the right).

Two days later I drove to Łódź for a friend’s wedding ceremony. Before arriving at southern part of Łódź I stopped over near the centre to walk and photograph some of the buildings in town. For no apparent reason all photos were overexposed. On my way back home I took a shot of A2 motorway at night (to the right). The quality of the picture is more than satisfactory, given poor lighting, lack of picture stabilising function and the fact I drove 130 kmph and focused more on driving than on photographing. I actually deserve being reproached over using camera behind wheel when the car was in motion… If you enlarge the picture you should notice horizontal stripes on it…

Over the next weeks there were very few moments when I needed to use the camera. In September I didn’t bother to turn it on at all, despite carrying it around. I do keep it in my briefcase, but usually when I run across something worth documenting I don’t bother to take it out. And even if I take the trouble, the resulting photos land on my hard disk and then end up archived on a CD.

In early October I wanted to immortalise thick morning fog, took out the camera, took photos, but all were overexposed. I tried out the camera in daylight, in the darker environment, tapped symptoms of the breakdown into google and soon had the diagnosis – shutter flex ribbon packed up…

Two weeks ago I left it in one of Warsaw’s best known camera repair centres to get the repair cost estimation and, if the cost was acceptable (below 100 PLN), to have it fixed. After a week a technician from the centre sent a valuation report, with costs totalling to 220 PLN (therein 40 PLN for the flex ribbon and 180 PLN for labour charges), so more than a working camera’s market value. Tomorrow I’m picking it up from the centre (one positive thing is that cost estimations free of charge are standard on the market) and my plan is to contact four other repair centres in Warsaw. If each offers to fix it for 100 PLN or more, the camera will be put up in Allegro and sold for as much as the most willing bidder will be ready to pay. Oddly enough, I found in the internet such repairs in provincial Poland cost around 70 PLN, but if I don’t go by chance there in business and don’t stay at least three days, a journey Tomaszów Lubelski only to have the camera mended doesn’t seem cost-effective.

The other option is to buy a new camera. It will be again a compact one, from the upper band of the low end, with all functions and enhancements my old Canon lacks. My candidate is currently Canon PowerShot SX 130, which given my needs offers an excellent trade-off between price (mere 399 PLN) and quality (12 times optical zoom, optical picture stabiliser, HD filming), but I’m holding off on the purchase until the issue of the old camera is sorted out.

I must say over the last days I did miss the possibility to take out the camera to immortalise the beauty of sunny and warm Polish autumn. On Friday I cycled to Las Kabacki and I could only use my out-of-ark (almost five years old, but always reliable – has never let me down) Nokia 3110 Classic, whose built-in camera is crappy (example to the right, snapped while moving at some 20 kmph) and I wished I could use a decent equipment. Yesterday morning I walked to the swimming pool in Piaseczno and back and again could not immortalise magnificently beautiful, sun-lit morning thick fog. Today I drove to the countryside to visit my great grandparents’ grave and again missed a camera which could document golden Polish autumn in full charm.

Over the last days I needed a camera to document the beauty of the nature, which shows after many weeks I am again sensitive to it. And I began to discern it again, I’m on the mend!

A propos my musings from before two weeks. What’s been happening with me is not just the example of defence mechanisms turning on. These have been also coping strategies harnessed to tackle adversities. How I changed over last months might also be the illustration of the process of psychological resilience taking place. Worth reading about this. Theory of economics says markets have self-stabilising mechanisms that bring them into equilibrium. It is fascinating to observe how psychology resembles economics. Both sciences explain mechanisms of self-regulation and both take note of their imperfections. Just as not all markets allocate resources in the most productive way, not all humans’ psyches find ways to cope with stress and to emerge stronger after facing adversities…

Before deciding to study at SGH I wanted to get in to faculty of psychology. I changed my mind in September 2005, eight months before leaving high school and don’t regret, but now it’s a great time to foster my interest in psychology.

* There is an alternative approach, saying quality of photography depends mostly on the photographer’s skills, as expressed by the Polish adage Na nic sprzętu kupa, jak fotograf d*pa.

I had a dream

Trying my best to break away for the last week. I’ve had some three crises over that time. The first one struck, quite naturally, in the second half of the working day on Wednesday, the second woke me up on Friday morning, the last one hit last night. Each one involved physical pain and pounding heart, but with each consecutive one intensity of pain wanes. I realise I can’t expect something which has been at the back of my mind for months to vanish into the air when I snap my fingers, but as I’ve finally got hold of myself I think I’m on the right track.

The first “crisis” was followed by one of the most uncanny dreams I’ve ever had in my life. It was deviously short and conspicuously realistic and thus has become etched in my memory. After a few days I still remember it well, with details and will try to take it into pieces.

I was in a laboratory in a local health centre. For no apparent reason I had to have my blood examined. I came there in a suit, took off the jacket, pulled up the right sleeve of my shirt and let a nurse prick a needle in my skin to suck in blood to a test tube. The needle punctured my skin and the blood began to gush; not trickled but gushed like a geyser. It splashed my shirt, suit, the nurse, who desperately tried to stem the small wound; to no avail. Then pressure under which my body pushed the blood from itself rose, the blood splattered walls and ceiling of the laboratory. The nurse ran to bring in other personnel to help her stem my bleeding. Somehow they couldn’t. I gazed at their endeavours and felt I was fading away. The less blood I had, the weaker I was and eventually I popped off and… woke up, paralysed by fear. It was half past two in the night and I was afraid to fall asleep again. I worried if I’d fallen asleep again, the dream would’ve ended and I’d have died.

For starters, a few questions regarding the very content of the dream…

Firstly, why did I need to have my blood examined? I had such examination in May, results were beyond reproach, I’m keeping fit, stay immune to germs flying around, cope well with stress… Leave out!

Secondly, why did I wear a suit? I have three suits – one for grand occasions and two put on when going to work only. This was one of those latter two. The first connection with work creeps over, but is misleading.

Thirdly, why a small wound brought about a flood of blood and why so many people who tried to help me couldn’t stem it?

Lust, but no least (watch out, this is a deliberately made spelling error, I saw such lapse once in a corporate mail and can’t get it out of my mind), why was I indifferently watching myself bleeding and patiently awaiting the imminent decease, if any sane creature that faces death desperately tries to save their life?

I told my parents about the weird dream, they told me it could signify I had a long life ahead.

I asked my female colleagues from the neighbouring team who start their working day from reading a horoscope if they could decipher the meaning of my dream and they found this. According to one of the first results uncle google spewed out, purport of a dream of blood is positive.

“Blood symbolises life (…), if it appears in dreams it renders openness, joy of life and self-esteem” – well, I turned from intraversion to moderate extraversion over the last year, despite last bad moments I smile a lot to people and display joy and have much self-confidence. As you read on, it gets more interesting.

“Blood is also a symbol of purification. When a body gets poisoned, blood is released to decontaminate the body. Blood appearing in a dream may signal a need to set free from secrets, problems or misdeeds. (…) In relationships between women and men the blood in a dream symbolises infidelity.” – if you have read through my previous post, you surely realise why I think the dream wasn’t haphazard.

“Blood might also by a symbol or sacrifice”. Extraverted people tend to do a lot for other people, even make sacrifices for them, and take pleasure in helping others.” – my workmates told me the dream rendered my personality well, but in their assessment they only covered how I behave towards people I work with. All, except one, couldn’t scratch beneath the surface and find the more important for me conclusion. Two reflections sprang to me mind. First, all the sacrifices I had in my mind were senseless. Second, the Elton John’s song. It tells a story of marriage going through a crisis, so surely it doesn’t reflect my personal situation, but contains one verse: It’s two hearts living in two separate worlds. I’ve written it once and maybe it’s the right moment to reiterate it – we are worlds apart and we’ll be still drifting apart.

“Finally, blood symbolises being born again (…) and may signal the desire to turn over a new leaf, in professional or personal realm of life” – and this is what breaking away is about – starting over :)

On Thursday afternoon I popped out for a lunch with a friend. She suggested I read about Jung’s contribution to dream analysis. Jung argued content of dreams should be put into a patient’s individual perspective. Only then the dream material can help rediscover someone’s sphere of the subconscious. I’m unfortunately not an expert in psychoanalysis, so I’m not capable of making any further steps towards taking this dream apart. But instead I found another website which says how Jung would generally interpret blood in a dream.

“According to Jung, blood is a source of life, love and spirituality. If we lose it in our dream, it means we feel emotional exhaustion and weakness and we should do something to overcome it” – if the chap has gone down in the history of psychoanalysis, there must have been a reason for it…

Another week passed by, interest rates weren’t cut (against analysts’ expectations), no new independent, party-backed candidate for a technical prime minister was presented, the incumbent prime minister delivered a speech, polls showed support for PiS was higher than for PO for the first time during five years of PO rule and meanwhile I focus on weird dreams… But who cares, I write for posterity!

Rozmowa z aniołem stróżem

It’s a transcript of a fictional conversation between my guardian angel and me. Most questions he is asking are the ones I have recently asked myself, most prompted by talks with several affable people who helped me realise I’m in a dead-end street and need to turn back…

I would like to say particular thanks to:

1) my colleague and soulmate Martyna, who for obvious reasons doesn’t know about the existence of this blog and who, in a surge of over-optimism about my odds to win, encouraged me to fight the losing battle,

2) my friend Ola, who by asking one fundamental question made me sure this is not love and has never been (fortunately),

3) fellow blogger Michael, for a gee-up to keep up the blog and instilling strength in me the moment I was faltering – thanks to him this is the first post since many weeks written out of pure inspiration, just like in times when I was at my best as a blogger.

Starring: Guardian Angel (GA), Bartek (B)

GA: So you confessed this accursed affection is a why and wherefore of how you have felt over the past months. You thought it would have to get better, you wanted to break away, you promised yourself to keep away from her and…

B: Promises are made to be broken… But she desperately needed me then and I’d have gone to hell and back to give her relief. I don’t know if I regret it. You know how torn I am…

GA: It’s long gone too far. You need to answer a few fundamental questions to at least partly comprehend what has happened. I won’t help you find your way around the whole state of affairs, but I’ll try to help you understand what you feel. We both know you’re unhappy without her, but… would you be happy with her?

B: Errr…

GA: Remember the corporate booze-up in late August? You got tanked up and began to flirt with your fifteen years older married colleague.

B: Are you reproaching me over flirting with her? This was just fun…

GA: I’d rather examine this later, you simplify the issue, it wasn’t fun, it was an escape. Anyway, you said you wouldn’t expect your wife to wash your socks, iron your shirts, clean the house, you’d make to do with a woman who’d be your best friend and who'd support you if you were in need.

B: I wasn’t tanked up yet at that moment, but indeed I meant what I said.

GA: So do you think she’s ever been your friend, has she ever been interested in your troubles when you’ve been in need? You were her shoulder to cry on when things were going bad, you knew the taste of her tears, but the hell did you see her smile when she was joyful?

B: The truth is bitter…

GA: There is the point. I won’t be gentle now and remind you one Friday from this June. You had fever of 39 degrees and took antibiotics after which you should not drive. Despite your parents’ begging you got into the car and drove to Warsaw to see her. She didn’t even notice your presence and when you approached her she, unlike other people, told you to back away. Do you remember how you felt then, how your parents feared? Should I remind you the yelling phases or other moments you’d probably wish to forget?

B: Do you want to these wounds to heal? Or are you trying make it ache even worse?

GA: I only want to show you how suffused with bitterness you are. There’s been too much pain along the way that time won’t erase it. Plus note one more thing. She’s not the same girl you met over a year ago…

B: Well, that’s a paradox, if I’m unhappy without her and I wouldn’t be happy with her, then I’m trapped, devoid of chance for happiness. Maybe that’s not over…

GA: Let’s check. But be honest. What was the happiest moment over the last quarter?

B: Those days when we were so close together…

GA: And what was the second happiest moment over the last quarter?

B: Thejourney to Olsztyn for the wedding…

GA: Why?

B: Actually maybe because I had a chance not to think about her. I did think about her several times but my thoughts were drowned out…

GA: What do you feel when you’re beside her?

B: Anything but pleasure and ease…

GA: What do you feel when you’re away from her?

B: Relief…

GA: Am I not hitting the nail in the head. You feel better you’re apart than together. Let’s face the truth, look how you behave, you take every opportunity to lengthen the distance between you, you make use of every excuse to escape her. You turn your eyes away not to see her… Automatic stabilisers of your psyche run at full steam to keep you sane…

B: You sly psychoanalyst…

GA: So you can’t deny it. What happens with you is a classic example of defence mechanism turning on. There’s nothing to worry about. Imagine you drive a car and see an obstacle coming onto your way. Your naturally want to avoid a collision. In the case of human psyche it works the same way – you naturally avoid situations which could cause you pain. This prevents you from going insane. Recall your recent indifference about her…

B: Hang on, I don’t feel comfortable with that indifference.

GA: But you prefer to be indifferent and even kick yourself for that. It’s less painful than any emotional commitment that would sooner or later wound you.

B: You can say that again, I’d rather stay stone-cold than burn, as I used to.

GA: Good you mentioned it, look at yourself, there’s almost nothing left to burn. You’re already so burnt-out that you couldn’t take pleasure in being with her. Don’t burn any more, unless you want to burn down. Save what is best in you someone who’d deserve it, for somebody who’d be your best friend and supporter.

B: I’m not aflame, but still something’s smouldering inside me. Do you know my mind is cleansing itself, but my heart, it literally aches…

GA: After all I’m your guardian angel, I know when and how it aches. There is a breaking point at which the pain gets physical.

B: Breaking point? I’d rather wait for a turning point, if I fell so low, I’d like to bottom out. What’s going to happen next?

GA: Firstly, sorrow which overwhelms you is not a feeling which should be fostered and definitely not something you should flaunt.

B: But what about her?

GA: Bite the bullet on it. Don’t let all the bitterness overcome you. Don’t think about separating yourself from her. Show she’s going to knock you down, make yourself a winner. Demonstrate manly fortitude in the face of adversity! Don’t break down, break away! Give yourself time and you’ll get over it.

B: Once I thought I would follow that path, but I went astray, the whole plan went down the drain…

GA: Now it’s less likely to happen, yet not improbable. Your defence mechanisms protect you from giving in again, but I don’t know what circumstances in the future will be. There might be a situation when your defence mechanisms turn off. I have no idea whether you’d come out of it burnt and bruised or elated. But if it happens, don’t expect me to hold you back. You fate lies in your hands… My time’s up, I’ll be pushing along…

B: Well, thanks my angel. Anything you’d like to add?

GA: Remember you have a lot to lose. I know these goings-on involve negative emotions you need to give vent to, but remember…

Don’t drive aggressively as you did recently – you haven’t had any accident and may it stay so, the aftermaths of a collision are not only about smashed-up vehicles, you can damage someone’s health or take away someone’s life.

Be careful at work. You’re recognised, received accolades, people respect and appreciate you, so don’t let any lapse of concentration cause you to make egregious errors and don’t let anyone suspect what you feel.

Look at the bright side of this affection. It has made you stronger, it has toughened you up, you’ve grown in self-confidence, risen to many challenges, did well in extremely difficult situations, but beware – what you’d do was often dicey and you were always in the luck not to fall into troubles (often to protect her), so don’t repeat it.

Don’t overkill. A man should be tough when necessary and soft, if circumstances require it. Don’t wipe away the softness you’ll need to demonstrate one day

Don’t try to do stupid things to allay the pain at any price. Relief would be temporary and that time around you may seriously hurt someone else or harm yourself.

And foster your friendships. Those very people who proved recently how much they care for your happiness deserve your attention, time and emotions. Meet them, do them small pleasures, share their joys and keep the company when they feel down. And hold your head up, may your good mood rub off on other people. Smile to the world and the world will smile back to you…

The end...

With hindsight the post looks like a self-humiliation, but I'm not ashamed of it.

One move in the right direction

It’s been a while since leader of the main opposition, Mr Kaczyński, party delivered his inaugural speech in the headquarters of his party (I wanted to follow suit and deliver a speech at home, but my parents declined to listen to it) in which he focused on the economic agenda of his party. The proposals put forward by Mr Kaczyński’s grouping centre around reforming tax code, pro-family policies, turning around the labour market.

The first discussion that sparked off in the wake of the announcement was about the costs of the proposals. The proponents argued the changes would set the state budget back 11 billion zlotys in the first year and then (I infer due to multiplier effects) would bring net revenues to the public purse. The opponents, i.e. ministry of finance pointed out new stimulus package would ruin Poland’s public finances (net extra deficit of 54.5 billion zlotys in 2013 only) and compared to a Ponzi scheme in terms of mismatching inflows and outflows.

Interestingly, none of the arguing parties has bothered to present calculations and underlying assumptions which could back the quoted figures. Actually those calculations have long been forgotten amid the daily bread of political squabbling. Last week I promised to catch up with a coverage of the debate between economists staged by the biggest oppositional party.

The discussion, held on Monday, was attended by over thirty eminent economists, representing a spectre of views and… was a huge letdown for me.

Many people spoke, little has been said. The discussion was full of very general conclusions, discussants have come up with several apt diagnoses, but few proposals how to turn the states of affairs around. OK, I know the tax code is over-complicated and loopholes give room for abuses, tax offices unrelentingly chase down perplexed taxpayers, I know the pension system needs to be revamped and broached this topic several times here, I know the state is not friendly enough towards child-raising families, I know it. It is easy to say what is wrong, the real challenge is to come up with feasible solutions to the problem, not the quick fixes, such as taxing financial institutions and large retailers. Levying a 0.39% tax on financial institutions’ assets and up to 2% tax on turnover of big retail shops means simply passing on this taxes to end customers. Additional (remember those enterprises are regular payers of corporate income tax) tax burden would become a substantial drag on profitability of financial institutions (what is their return on assets?) and retailers (operating on small margins and earning on big volumes of goods sold) and in effect all firms would in unison pass the tax on their customers in form of higher fees and gross margins (difference between revenues and cost of goods sold). And if Mr Kaczyński says competition would hinder such hike, he again proves he is completely out of touch.

Such diminutive is the revenue side in the PiS’ proposal, compared to bloated expenditures. I fear rule of PiS would mean a revisiting flawed economic policies from years 2006 – 2007 when despite economic boom state budget did not run a surplus, as expenditures were raised and taxes were cut. Promising people lower VAT, higher tax allowance for children, labour market kick-starting spending and planning to fund it with additional tax on two types of companies (those hailed as hostile) is, putting it mildly, pure tale-telling. Many voters will fall for it, only few will take the trouble, or be clever enough to make out such plans do not hang together. Poland’s creditors have confidence in the sovereign debt of the country. Yields on 2Y zero-coupon bonds run below 4.2% these days, one percentage point below inter-bank market rates and less than one percentage point above looking-backward inflation. Ruthless speculators do not buy Polish bonds so cheaply because they are in collusion with the worst, hopeless government in the history of Poland. They see our public finances are run prudently, fiscal deficit, although in my opinion excessive, is still moderate and debt / GDP ratio is bound to decline to 50% by 2016. Any silly proposal that would push up the borrowing needs would shatter the excellent perception of Poland as a debtor and this, by any means, must be averted. All in all I am glad the debate was held and that many economists turned up to have their say.

The real pity is that it was a one-day event and soon after Polish politics return to its ordinary course. On Thursday I came home and stared at TV screen watching the parliament session during which deputies were once again dragging out and taking into pieces the Smolensk tragedy. It is unacceptable there was a mess when bodies of crash fatalities were laid into coffins, but why the hell have coffins become a focal point of public discourse? The world does not revolve around those who should rest in peace. In peace, which is disrupted. Let’s face the brutal truth – after the impact at the speed of 280 kmph bodies of fatalities were shattered into pieces, mangled, deformed. Putting this together was a challenge and allowances should have been made for some mistakes.

And again, I want to know what the hell the point in exhumations is. The grave, as I understand is a symbolic place to commemorate a person who is buried, a place that should serve as a symbol and the issue whose decomposing cadaver lies there is of secondary importance (if my opinion winds you up, feel free to express this). By making politics on Smolensk disaster fatalities’ grave we do not give ourselves the chance to move Poland ahead.

Wallowing in the mire of past events will not make most of us feel better. In fact most people focus on down-to-earth issues and I would prefer politicians to focus on public finances, pension system, health service, in a word on the future of us. This should make the news, not rooting about in coffins or rallies of self-styled catholics, who feed on hatred towards fellow men. They invoke teachings of John Paul II who said ‘there is no solidarity without love, solidarity is when people stand together, not against one another’. How does it square with the amount of mutual loathing in our society?

Until the end of the world

Haven't seen you in quite a while
I was down the hold just passing time
Last time we met was a low-lit room
We were as close together as a bride and groom
We ate the food, we drank the wine
Everybody having a good time
Except you
You were talking about the end of the world

I took the money
I spiked your drink
You miss too much these days if you stop to think
You lead me on with those innocent eyes
You know I love the element of surprise
In the garden I was playing the tart
I kissed your lips and broke your heart
You...you were acting like it was
The end of the world

In my dream I was drowning my sorrows
But my sorrows, they learned to swim
Surrounding me, going down on me
Spilling over the brim
Waves of regret and waves of joy
I reached out for the one I tried to destroy
You...you said you'd wait
'til the end of the world

 

If there is a perfect song on the leitmotiv of guilt, the U2’s song is for me an undisputable candidate for it.

According to the most common interpretation, the lyrics illustrate the last momenta of the relationship between Judas Iscariot and Jesus, told from the perspective of the former. References to biblical story, including the last supper, betrayal in the garden and Judas overwhelmed with pang of conscience appear clear, but somehow I have never been fond of this elucidation. Mentioning ‘being close together like bride and groom’, or ‘playing the tart’ verges on hinting on a homosexual relationship between Jesus and Judas Iscariot, which would have been a pure sacrilege.

From the first time I heard it, in late 2002, I have construed the song as a confession of a man who seduced a woman and is full of remorse on account of his deeds. “Until the end of the world” has besides and thus has a very personal dimension for me.

Today, while sitting about in an empty office, trying to oversee content-related aspects of a new supporting IT tool for underwriters (incidentally, I believe this will be a huge botch-up, the implementation phase reveals this is bound to fuck things up, rather than revamping the current process, this always happens when a man is harness to serve its tools, not other way round), I let my mind drift away and pondered upon relationships between women and men, or rather a single facet of them, namely why usually women pair up with older man. The reasons why men fall for younger women are quite obvious (albeit I have not reached the age when younger girls would impress me and still prefer a bit older ones), while motives behind women’s preference of older males remain a bit puzzling for me. I know women seek mature, responsible, wealthier guys, but are these the only reasons? Is it the matter of cultural stereotypes, stating a male should be older? I believe in the era of thriving liberties such prejudices should not play any role. Among the readers of this blog there are surely men married to much (more than 5 years) younger women, so maybe they wield the key to the door? Or maybe before posting comments they should take their wives’ advice?

Tomorrow the main opposition party will host a debate of economists on its recently announced economic agenda, by many hailed as disastrous for public finances. Many renowned economist are expected to turn up, albeit some eminent figures, such as dr hab. Leszek Balcerowicz and governor of the central bank, prof. Marek Belka declined to attend it. The debate will be held tomorrow at 10:00 a.m., so I will not be able to keep track of it and hope I will find an extensive on-line transcript of it. This will help me not only assess key proposals in PiS’ economic agenda, but also review the economists’ stance on it. I hope the discussion will be purely substantive and I am looking forward to more such initiatives. PiS have finally showed they want to do something to move Poland forward, rather than simply slating the government (faring worse and worse indeed).

Meteorologists are forecasting a full-blowm summer to come over around the next weekend. Temperatures in the last days of September are said to hit +30C which would mean record-breaking temperatures during astronomical autumn. So if this comes to a pass, the coverage of the debate might be delayed by one week, so I am apologising in advance. If the last of the summer beckons, resisting to indulge in outdoor activities would not be forgiven.

QE3

Here we go again! Less than two years after the launch of QE2 the Federal Reserve has announced a new round of monetary easing. This time the quantity and time frame of the bond buy-up programme are unbounded. Would it lift the ever-ailing US economy? I seriously doubt it.

Let’s face it, the economy of the United States has seen better and worse days since 2008. Despite near-zero interest rates and two completed rounds of injecting ample liquidity into the banking system, economic growth is brittle, labour market shows little signs of improvement and housing market, which quite probably bottomed out is still in a slack, as access to credit stays tight. The very last factor, as I have pointed out many times, foretells the ultimate failure of the QE programme.

Quantitative easing basically consists in changing structure of commercial banks’ assets by the central bank. The Fed buys government bonds (mainly those with longer maturity, thus exerting pressure to move down to long end of the yield curve, which in turn relieves mortgage debtors) from commercial banks and changes them into cash. This means banks have more liquidity that can, theoretically, be used to grant loans to businesses and households. This does not happen, as banks keep restraint in lending, which they perceive risky and additional cash is goes into financial markets where it pushes up price of risky assets such as equities, commodities and currencies of emerging markets.

According to theory of economics, increased money supply, the direct consequence of the QE, should, holding everything else unchanged, give rise to inflation. This has not happened, as the new money does not flow into real economy, but is diverted into artificial financial markets. If the above holds true, does the real economy benefit from the QE? I uphold my theory Mr Bernanke again favours speculators betting on financial markets over non-financial businesses and households. The QE3 might peter out and then he may launch another QE4, QE5, …, QE100 and extend the balance sheet of the central bank he governs until the end of the world and keep helping the US government financing its mammoth debt, but without solving structural problems of the US economy, he is going to attain nothing, except for gratitude of bankers. I could call for further deleveraging, turning the savings rate positive, switching from imports to domestic production, tax reforms and other moves that would change the distribution of income between the poor and the rich. The cradle of modern capitalism is no longer the country where you can grow from rags to riches. Once you are born as the underclass, you are very likely to die as the underclass…

Recent action of the European Central Bank are not such a crying shame, but cannot be deem commendable though. The key institution of the monetary union announced it is conceivable the ECB would buy up on secondary market bonds issued by distressed eurozone governments. Technically the PIGS bonds would be swapped for money market bills issued by the central banks. Here no new money flows into the financial systems, so the beneficiaries of the operations are commercial banks, which have a better credit quality of assets and distressed governments, as yields on their bonds go down. The move does not solve any structural problems of economies under water, it only defers their ultimate collapse, which still looms unavoidable.

To explain the results of both programmes run by central banks we have to invoke the mechanism of self-fulfilling prophecy. If market participants expect the Fed pursues QE3, they believe the money is not injected to real economy, but into financial markets, as it always used to be. Consequently, their inflation expectations do not change and consumer prices do not go up, but they expect prices of risky assets to increase, so they buy them to profit from the uptrend and bring about a bull market on risky asset markets. I was once told not to play against the Fed, but this time I would not dare to put my money into equities. Stock prices hinge upon macroeconomic fundamentals; fragile as they are know, they will sooner or later drag them down, despite excess money on the market. If market participants believe the ECB would buy up junk bonds of PIGS countries, they would be more eager to purchase them on primary markets. This will surely help these government stay afloat, but still does not solve structural problems underlying economic miseries.

Plus note all actions of central banks do not affect confidence among consumers and companies. Both are reluctant to spend money for consumption and investment purposes as they fear lean times, so they do not generate demand on products and services…

Many economists claim 2013 will bring another economic disaster – recession in the eurozone and in the United States, Greece being ousted from the eurozone, severe slowdown in China and in Poland. Whatever happens, we have to live through it and draw lessons from it. What central banks do, apart from its moral aspect, i.e. fostering financial institutions interests, is essentially sweeping the problems under the carpet, by giving temporary relief. And the longer you do this, the larger the hill of rubbish under the carpet grows…

Toughness, indifference, or something else

Summer of 2007. The time when my (then) best friend’s mother was terminally ill and finally passed away. Normally a human’s psyche is deeply affected by such traumatic experiences. Usually people react sensitively, can’t help crying, or get carried away by emotions. Most of us do, but not Mateusz (name this time not changed). When I talked to him or met him he showed absolutely no emotions, behaved like a doctor looking after another patient about to die sooner or later. He did take care of his mother, did everything to relieve her pain (she was down with a rare illness, called amyloidosis) and waited patiently for her death. The day it happened, he called me in the evening, announced the wait was over and promised to let me know about the date of the funeral. Before the burial ceremony I visited him in his house. The room where his mother died was tidied up – the hospital bed was pushed aside, all medicines, equipment and other traces of her last days were gone. To mark the mourning, Mateusz wore a black tie and had a black bow attached to the right sleeve of his shirt. His face and so his eyes were as hollow as over the previous weeks. He briefly, with technical details described how she departed. I listed and after a minute it occurred to me I seemed to be more touched then him.

A year or two ago I recalled those days with his grandmother (whose daughter deceased). Matuesz and his grandma have broken up any bonds soon after the funeral but both cited different reasons and accounts of event after Mateusz’s mother’s death. The grandma with dread recalled how Mateusz behaved on those days, chiefly his absolute lack of emotionality. It all prompted me to consider whether this has not been inhuman. Today Mateusz’s father is dying from cancer and Mateusz acts in exactly the same way…

In some cases getting immune to other people’s suffering is the only way to avoid going crazy. Imagine an oncologist who works every day with people terminally ill on cancer. Such person, even if they care for their patients, can’t be oversensitive. Otherwise, they would have to go through bereavement every few weeks or so.

Whenever a difficult situation strikes us for the first time, we are more likely to fail do deal with successfully. Each next occurrence of a similar experience finds us more accustomed to face the hardships and better prepared to overcome them.

The key concept, crucial to understand what I’m getting at, is the hackneyed adage “what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger”. I’ve been pondering upon this for weeks and reached a conclusion that as long as the pain, trauma, suffering, etc. is not overwhelming, it should add us resilience. The magnitude of experiences we’re exposed to determines the way they shape us. Life without suffering is impossible, so life must toughen us up. Of course there are situations which would bring even mentally toughest people to their knees and there are individuals who let insignificant hardships overpower them.

Again, I began to draw comparisons between the moment I was hired where I work now and today. This time I focused only on my psyche and toughness. I evolved from a moderately fragile person, prone to give up in stressful situations to the strongest link in the chain. Spontaneously I’ve taken up the role of the person in the team and in the department who takes stuff on the chin, often even if someone else has been assigned to deal with it. For instance, for my colleagues going to a credit committee meeting and presenting a transaction to a group of nine decision-makers, including three management board members and then responding to their questions, is a very stressful experience. The tension paralyses them, they shudder before going there and agonise over what they are going to tell and even after they come back and it is over, they take their speech and the whole meeting to the pieces. For me such task involves a dose of stress that stimulates me, motivates me and sends my adrenaline rise a bit. I doesn’t mean I’m totally laid back, credit committee meeting involves a lot of responsibility. The way I present a deal may influence the committee’s decision and this in turn may lead to losses of millions of zlotys, so I can’t be indifferent, I just don’t let stress take hold of me.

If you’re tough, it doesn’t mean you’re indifferent. If you’re tough, it doesn’t mean you’re devoid of any emotions. It may mean so, but usually doesn’t. Your toughness just proves you’ve learnt how to cope with emotions and bears out your maturity, it also predestines you to become a leader and to assume responsibilities. At work emotions shouldn’t play a role, this is obvious, in private life it’s not that easy, but it’s good to try. Sometimes, when push comes to shove, in emergency situations, such toughness helps take wise decisions swiftly and doesn’t let you fall into panic. Again, keeping a cool head, keeping your distance, should not be mistaken for indifference.

Funnily enough, these weren’t several stressful situations I have been exposed to that have toughened me up. I intended not to revert to it, but to complete this post, I need to. It was the violation of a good practice that one should separate private and professional life, in particular not to start intimate relationships with workmates. Quite predictably, the forbidden fruit was delicious, but such affections, full of twists and turns are clearly asking for troubles. I haven’t fallen in any real troubles, but the by-product of this God only knows if actually reciprocated affection was the rise of my strength. Oddly enough, I feel more than ever before and act as if I felt less than ever before. I sometimes have remorse on account of appearing to be stone-cold, but at the end of the day I think I’ve pursued the best face-saving strategy that helped me avert going mad.

I actually planned to examine the new economic agenda of PiS, presented last Sunday and again ended up compiling a post akin to a page torn away from a teenager’s diary. One day I’ll mend my ways and return to the original formula of this blog.

Who allowed Amber Gold to grow so big?

Looking back to late 2008 and early 2009 I remember first advertisements of Finroyal and Amber Gold in newspapers. Both shady companies would tempt potential customers with deposits meant to fetch income a few percentage points higher than traditional bank deposits. Cognisant of risk – return trade-off I wondered how it was possible to fix such income for customers, but never took the trouble to inquire into workings of such companies. In 2009, when browsing Polish Financial Supervision Authority, I ran across the black list of companies engaged in bank-like operations without required licences. Both business were listed there, but who actually visits the site of KNF?

Months went by and depositing money with such companies has grown in popularity. Poles have been put off risky investments on stock exchange and in investment funds after the bear market of 2007-2009, bank deposits could barely beat inflation, so guaranteed profits exceeding inflation rate by almost ten percentage points loomed as attractive investment opportunities. In the meantime some journalists tried to unravel the workings of companies offering allegedly guaranteed gains higher than offered by banks. With time Amber Gold began advertising itself aggressively. As long as inflows of money from depositors were bigger than outflows and OLT Express airline was managing to cover its expenses, the business drifted above water. Much of the money was probably swindled out of Amber Gold to its CEO and owner, currently 28-year-old Marcin P. In late July 2012, the house of cards was pulled down.

If you want to ask me to explicate how the whole scheme, or rather scam, worked, feel free; you’ll catch me naked. I know what principles underlie Ponzi schemes, I am familiar with some methods of laundering money, but each case is different. Unfolding the story will take relevant secret services and persecution offices years.

Marcin P., a man who at the age of 20 was sentenced for embezzlement for the first time and did his time, was allowed to set up another scam and run it undisturbed for three years. For years he kept away form the limelight and assiduously raked in money from the venture. In the days preceding the spectacular collapse of OLT Express and Amber Gold he came out of the shadow and acted as the number one celebrity in Poland. Currently Mr. P is behind bars, charged with several crimes. Personality of Mr. P is a good topic a separate posting – bold, unprincipled, lying through this teeth without scruples. There are supposition he is just a cog in the machine and much more powerfully and cunning criminal have contrived the scheme.

The money was taken away from the company, whose liabilities surpass its assets several times, so depositors who entrusted their savings to Amber Gold have little chance to recover their money. Thousands of people done out of money. The youngest aggrieved is aged 22, the oldest over 80. From all walks of life, some put there a few hundred zlotys, one sank there staggering 3.2 million zlotys. Some invested their savings there because they believed it was a bank, some realised it was a scam, but hoped to withdraw money before it falls apart. Most of Amber Gold’s customers had no notion of economics, were simply duped, fell prey to promises of gold-backed profits. Now they hold it against the Polish state that it has failed to protect citizens from deceitful businesses.

So who should be held accountable for dilatory dealing with Amber Gold case? The Financial Supervision Authority issued warnings on its website and filed a crime suspecting notion to the prosecution office. To no avail – sloppy prosecutors for some reasons, maybe the reason is imperfection of Polish law, full of loopholes, failed to get to grips with Amber Gold.

The scandal gave rise to a dispute who actually is to blame for loss of money deposited by people in the Amber Gold. There are generally two groups. Some, identified with enlightened economists, say these are depositors themselves who gave credence to implausible promises, others point at Polish state institutions failure to lay down clear law and to enforce it.

My take is that both groups are partly right. The state should secure a legal system under which a criminal cannot start up a financial company that works like a bank. The state should take steps to close it as soon as possible. The state should inform citizens about perils associated with putting money there. But the state should not forbid citizens from doing with their money whatever they wish. In a properly run country citizens should be able to easily access information (e.g. black lists should be printed in newspapers, presented in TV and put up in all bank branches) that Amber Gold, Finroyal and many other companies are on a black list of KNF, operate without license, are not covered by financial supervision and deposits are not guaranteed by the bank guarantee fund . Then fully aware citizens could choose to put their money at risk.

This, along with recent bankruptcies of travel agencies sheds some light not only on Poles’ carelessness, but also Poland’s advancement on the way towards welfare. Choosing to go on holidays with a dodgy travel agency to save, depositing money with a shady financial company to earn more. This illustrates not only unfettered and stupid avarice, blissful ignorance, but also the vague concept of dziadostwo. There is little wisdom in risking much to earn little and such was the case here.

In managing my financial surpluses I favour transparency. I keep 75% of my savings on bank deposits and make sure that the bank with which I deposit money is registered in Poland, thus overseen by Polish Financial Supervision Authority, deposits are covered by Bank Guarantee Fund and the bank is listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The rest of my money is used for investment of speculation on the stock exchange. There I am exposed to market risk, i.e. that prices of financial assets I hold may drop, but at least it is transparent and I have no problems selling my stocks with a loss and recover the rest of money. It is not a matter of risk, as some say, it is a matter of transparency that enables you to control risks. Victims of Amber Gold surely had some problems with risk management…

The book

Running the blog is not my first instance of dabbling in writing. I’ve been sharing my thoughts with the visitors of this site for over three and a half years, but long before setting up the blog, once I committed a longer piece of writing.

It was the summer of 2004, I was sixteen at that time and I can’t affirm these were the happiest months in my life. For sure I needed a katharsis and writing a 134-pages long book, which I’ve never given a title, helped me take some of the toxic thoughts off my chest and break free from some memories. My work covered over two years of my adolescent life, spanning from 21 May 2002 to 31 August 2004. The end of the book coincided with the last day of writing it (I’d started works on 19 July 2004). The script, consisting of 12 chapters (actually 10 have been completed, two ones, covering the period between 8 May and 31 December 2003 were supposed to be supplemented later, but I’ve never followed out this plan) dealt with matters most important for a typical teenager, i.e. friendships, first affections, family affairs, school. The writing provided insight into tribulations of ordinary life – joys intermingled with sorrows, downs were followed by ups, failures were outshined by successes. Notably, I wrote everything off my memory, I didn’t have to recourse to any notes to bring back with accuracy most important moments from recent over two years of my life.

In the last days of August 2004 I shared the book, sending the copies via e-mails, with my closest friends. It went down well, was praised for good style and maturity and criticised for my ease and shamelessness in exposing my inner-most feelings to any audience. On the last day of summer holidays of 2004, having discharged all the loads off my mind, I secured the file containing the book with a password and left it on my hard disk. I’ve never printed a copy of the book, as the I concealed the writing from my parents. They actually realised I was writing something, as it took some time to compile an over a hundred-page-long work, but were left unaware of what the book dwelled on. Probably some excerpts of it would fill them with dread and for some they would tell me to look for a new home. The book was safely copied to a new hard disk of my laptop, as I changed computer in 2006 and stayed there until June 2010.

From the very moment of closing the book, I had no courage to revert to it, nor to read it over. The mere thought of reliving the moments I depicted there made me want to puke. Later, as I became more focused on mundane issues, such as those mentioned in the name of this blog, and less emotional, I didn’t even feel the need to reopen my work. In June 2010 the file was wiped out with most of my hard disk’s content. I easily came to terms with the loss of the book as I my turbulent teenage years were meant to be left behind.

Just some time ago, while drifting somewhere between cloud nine and slough of despond, I felt the strong need to relive some moments from before almost 10 years. Coming by the book was anything, but an easy job; I had to stoop low to get the only printed copy of it (no electronic version has been saved), but eventually the coveted 134 pages came into my hands.

For a few days I was keeping it in a glove compartment of my car and hanging back on getting to grips with my past, but last Friday I finally took it out of the car, smuggled in my briefcase to the house and put into one of several binders containing study materials, so that it could not be found easily.

I read the book almost from cover to cover on Saturday – Sunday night last weekend. I must admit I have skipped a few pages, as at some moments I was running out of courage to confront myself my past emotions, but I did manage to overcome my fear. Felt like a healing…

Looking at the book from the perspective of being eight years older than when writing it, I must assert in some respects I changed much, in others, I haven’t evolved at all. In terms of style at times the writing seems superb, at times mediocre of worse. At times the author appears very childish, at times mature. Today I could tweak it (note it’s been written in Polish) and rearrange a lot, still leaving the purport untouched. I would edit out childish comments, irrelevant details and probably leave the rest out, as committed into paper then. The two missing chapters will remain unwritten forever. I can’t recall now eight months of 2003 to cover them day by day, nor would I have any pleasure in looking back on those days. The book will be preserved in the form I got hold of it ever after.

PS. As some of you have noticed, there have been some deviations from the dreary posting schedule (i.e. one post a week each Sunday). Don’t expect any news this weekend, as I’m staying at work overtime to co-ordinate implementation of a new IT tool, the same overtime job is scheduled in two and four weeks over weekends. Plus tomorrow evening I’m heading to Łódź for another friend’s wedding (alas this time skipping the reception for abovementioned reasons).