Lying in bed, rather than on my way to LA

Last week I promised not to post for a month, as today I was supposed to be on my way to the USA West Coast. Health-related circumstances have coerced me to defer those plans. The problems with lumbar spine are not a novelty to me, yet for several months I could forgot about them altogether. I looked after it, had a lot of recreational exercise outdoors, took physiotherapy classes in winter. If the spine was under a strain of a carrying heavy stuff or assembling pieces of furniture, I did it all wisely and did not feel any discomfort.

Maybe I took it for granted that the spine would pay me back with a painless service. After those carefree months I simply shrugged off the first incidences of pain, hoping they would go as quickly as they came. There was a day in late August when it ached intensely, yet then it eased off.

The week starting on 2 September 2024 was dramatic at work. I sat for much longer than 8 hours, stressed-out and most of the time in a bizarre position, to keep the back of my thigh away from a chair, after my skin had been literally sliced by a thin and sharp leash kept by a thoughtless dog owner. Day by day the pain was getting worse, but I carried on ignoring it, until Friday, 6 September, when it became unbearable.

On 7 September I went to a GP. She prescribed me some painkillers and ordered to lie down in a “chair” position. I followed her recommendations for two days, yet without any signs of being on the mend. Conversely, the pain was only more acute.

On Monday, 9 September, I went (by underground, since getting into any passenger car was out of reach) to a neurologist and had an X-ray examination done. He prescribed me another set of painkillers, since the core medicine from the previous set could cause an adverse reaction with antidepressants I take. By the evening, things were getting only worse. After sunset I could move my arms, legs and head. Except for this, I was actually bed-ridden – getting out of bed would have involved too much pain. The memory of being walked by my girlfriend to the toilet and holding on to walls and doors will not be erased for a long time.

On Tuesday, 10 September, my father drove me to a physiotherapist for a manual therapy session. Actually the benefit of the very massage (as delicate as it could have been) was quite possibly thwarted by the journey by car (getting out of took me a minute each time).

On Wednesday, 11 September I snapped a last minute appointment to an orthopaedist. The only benefit of it was an emergency referral for an MRI.

The next two days I strived to avoid any strain, though on Friday I went for a 30-minute walk, since staying in bed most of the time had gotten wearisome. I was fit enough to walk for a while without a major ache, yet sitting was still out of reach. Actually I could spend my time lying or walking, as even standing involved a discomfort.

Yesterday I had my MRI done, I wait to be it described and keep looking out for a superb doctor, who would tell me what the dos and don’ts for the coming weeks are and who will oversee my path to recovery.

Lesson learnt from this incidence hitting just ahead of grand holidays – buy insurance and always mark if you have an underlying illness. I had not done it, but luckily managed to cut financial losses. All accommodations and car rental reservation could be cancelled free of charge, while the flights with PLL LOT, despite being in the lowest tariff, could be rescheduled for mere EUR 120. The trip is now scheduled to commence on 24 April 2025 which gives me plenty of time to recover, which is a matter of weeks rather than days.

A progress report to be published in a week.

Endless summer

September has come up, scent of autumn is in the air, yet summer-like temperatures have not eased off.

Meteorogical summer of 2024 (i.e. June, July and August) in Poland definitely has been one of the warmest, but since extensive weather records disappered from Meteomodel page, my ability to put current readouts into historical context has waned.

Another measure of heat intensity is the number of days when temperature exceeded +30C (day-time high). So far in 2024 there have been 24 such days in Warsaw, compared to record-setting 24 days in 2015 and 22 days in 2006.

In the coming days the likelihood of temperatures exceeding +30C in the capital of Poland is extremely low. Historically the latest such incidence was on 14 September 1951 (second-latest on 13 September 2023). The September heat record of +34.5C, set on 1 September 2015 is unthreatened. It is far too early to judge, whether the entire September will be the warmest since records began, but last year's record of +18.5C will be difficult to beat.

In Poland's climate positive temperature deviations from long mean might cheer up in non-summer months only, but their frequency is worrisome. We had the second-warmest July in 2024, March temperature records beaten in late March 2024, February 2024 was the warmest since records began. In 2023 records were broken or nearly missed in January, September in October. The most recent month with mean temperature below long-term average was April 2023 and it was one of very few such months over recent years.

On one hand I would cherish clement weather and autumnal warmth (in contrast to summer heat) for possibly long, on the other I realise it is yet another signal of accelerating climate changes.

Next post in mid-October, after what is supposed to be the holidays of my lifetime (and involve substantial CO2 emissions, so maybe nothing to brag about).

Warfare musings

Forecasts of the Ukraine war development for the summer months were bleak. The Ukrainian defence was foreseen to break down, the invaders, apart from trespassing into the Ukrainian territory, were supposed to provocatively, yet tentatively attempt to disturb peace in the Baltic countries. Fortunately, only a minor part of those predictions proved right.

And then all of the sudden, on 6 August 2024, the Ukrainian army successfully moved the warfare into the territory of the enemy, launching the first incidence of was in the territory of russia or its soviet predecessor since WW2. The counter-attack carries on, with the invaders still shocked their own land has become a battleground.

The intrusion into a poorly-defended Kursk region were meant to prompt the invaders to shift some regiments from Donbas region, where things are not going well and the frontline is slowly progressing west. In simple words, in regions occupied since 2014, Ukraine is being defeated.

If the warfare carries on, 19 November 2024 will be the 1,000th day since its onset. The plan of the dictator was to take over Kyiv within a few days and install a mock-up government out there. Despite running rings around the capital of Ukraine, wreaking destruction and committing genocide, it has not worked out. Ukraine keeps holding strong and the war is far from settlement.

With the imminent attrition of both sides, 3 scenarios can be considered.
The first one - Ukraine wins. Despite ongoing supplies of arms from the West (leave out now who takes over as a president of the United States soon), Ukraine lacks resources to do so.
The second one - Russia wins - unlikely in short-term perspective, sadly conceivable in 2 or 3 years. It would pave the way for their next conquers, also to combat NATO countries.
The third one - both parties are fed up with the warfare and decide to sign a peace treaty. Ukraine loses part of its territory, the invaders ease up for a while. After a while the dictator rebuilds its potential and strikes again.

The old saying if you want peace brace yourself for a war has not gone outdated. With Russia ruled and weapon-equipped as it is now, we will not feel safe for many years. A full-scale invasion into CEE seems unimaginable, but a full-blown warfare is not essential to wreak havoc in the region. Deterrents must be in place, to discourage the dictator from a confrontation with NATO. Besides, unity of allies has to be manifested. For such reason I keep fingers crossed for the victory of Kamala Harris in November.