Pandemic diary – weeks 56 & 57

Monday, 5 April 2021
Feel like being vaccinated without waiting your turn? Drive to Rzeszów where everyone can be vaccinated before registration opens for their age group. People queued up outside the vaccination centre and got their jab until somebody blew the scandal up. Mayoral election will be held in Rzeszów on 9 May 2021. But hold on, it’s just a coincidence!

Tuesday, 6 April 2021
Post-lockdown baby boom? No such luck! The number of births in Poland in January 2021 reached 25,000 (vs. 33,600 in January 2020). Hard lockdown in April 2020 has not translated into more conceptions. This does not surprise me.

Wednesday, 7 April 2021
Mobility (as evidenced by data from Android-operated devices) during Easter was 150% higher than last year, while the number of new infections was 100 times higher than in mid-April 2020. Rotation of vehicles outside my block of flats also suggested people visited each other a lot. In around a week we will find out whether social gatherings have impact on the further course of the epidemic in Poland.

Thursday, 8 April 2021
A lag in death reporting during Easter has led to a pile-up in deceases – 954 new COVID-19 fatalities. It looks like an all-time sad record, yet 7-day average of deaths will be on the rise for a week or two and will beat its record (on average 506 death daily on recent 7 days, reported on 25 November 2020).

Friday, 9 April 2021
On 26 March 2021 Poland ranked 14th in terms of absolute number of infections. It took me homeland 13 days to jump onto 11th position. Overtaking Germany which currently ranks 10th with current difference in new infections would take more than a month, therefore it seems unlikely.

Saturday, 10 April 2021
My friends take care of me. They tip me off where one can get vaccinated in Warsaw without queueing up. I do not make use of that information and (im)patiently wait my turn.

Sunday, 11 April 2021
The pandemic has brought out the worst human traits. I already detest those who deny existence of the virus or shrug it off, avoid testing, conspiracy theorists, anti-vaxxers. I cannot stand lack of responsibility, selfishness, carelessness. The side effect of the pandemic for my psyche will be a grudge against majority of people who are not living up to the occasion.

Monday, 12 April 2021
I must confess the pandemic fatigue is rubbing off one me. I need to resist it. I can live without open restaurants, bars, cinemas, shopping malls, but the obligation to wear face mask outdoors when nobody is around is something that detract from the pleasure of outdoor activities.

Tuesday, 13 April 2021
Let’s look how countries that have excelled in vaccinating their populations fare.
Isreal, where around 60% of all people are fully vaccinated reports a decline in new infections by 98% vs. peak in mid-January.
In the United Kingdom where half of adults have received their first dose and one in six adults has received two jabs, number of new infections is 95% lower than in early January. The country has unfrozen many business yesterday, but given the children have returned to schools a month ago and this has not contributed to a relapse of the epidemic, I believe the number of new infections is about to level off on a reasonably low level.
In the United States new infections bottomed out in mid-March and rose from 55,000 to 72,000 (I look at seven-day moving averages) – this is the effect of loosening restrictions too fast and the British variant taking hold.
In Chile a vaccine-related complacency has led to a sharp rise in new infections.

Wednesday, 14 April 2021
My parents receive their second doses of Pfizer vaccine. It seems they have managed to avert the infection. Family-wise in more than a week, life will return to normalcy, after over six months of self-imposed limitations.

Thursday, 15 April 2021
The seven-day average number of deaths from COVID-19 is now some 20% higher than at the peak of autumnal wave in November 2020. Each day COVID-19 contributes to 600 deceases, while normally at this time of year the number of death from all causes ran at 1,100. I fear April 2021 will be even deadlier than November 2020 when mortality was 97% higher than average in past five Novembers.

Friday, 16 April 2021
The number of deaths from COVID-19 worldwide hits 3 million (bear in mind this is just the official figure). Just like a small country wept off the map.

Saturday, 17 April 2021
A big debate regarding the obligation to wear face masks outdoors has sparked off on Twitter, following clashes of epidemiologists; some of them say it makes sense, others claim they are useless, unless in close contact or in a crowded outdoor setting. The health minister say the obligation will be lifted once the new infections go down, but fails to pin down the exact level.
I commit to sign off this diary once 7-day average number of new infections drops below 2,887 (90% from peak reported on 1 April 2021).