Winter Timeline 2020/21

According to most long-term forecasts, the winter was about to be one of the mildest ever (third such one in a row), however not as warm and snow-free as the previous one. With hindsight – the forecast has not proven accurate.

October 2020 was frost-free (with one incidence of ground frost, on 20 October 2020, when according to the official reading the temperature bottomed at +0.6C), partly sunny and warm, partly rainy and dull.
It was the seventh October without sub-zero temperature in Warsaw after 1950, after Octobers in 1957, 1961, 1989, 2008, 2017 and 2018. Worth noting in 1981-2010 three-decade reference period the first frost was observed on average on 15 October. As we are switching into 1991-2020 window, the first occurrence of sub-zero temperature in Warsaw is delayed on average by 3 days, to 18 October.

 

14 November 2020 – first frost. The temperature dropped to mere –0.1C just for less than an hour in the dead of night, yet it does count as frost. Nevertheless even had the temperature not slipped below the point of freezing, the record-late frost (currently 21 November, set in 2017) would not have been observed anyway, as on 21 November 2020 temperature fell below freezing again.

November 2020 as an autumnal month deserved a separate weather summary.

 

30 November 2020
From this year, I make a clear criterion on when to launch the winter timeline. It happens either at the day of first snow or when mean daily temperature drops below 0C for the first time – which distinct the thermal winter. On the last day of November only one criterion was met. The light dusting of snow which fell overnight melted well before midday, but the average temperature for that day was little above 0C (+0.1C).

1 December 2020 – 3 December 2020
Thermal, yet snow-free winter ensues. With gusty wind it feels chilly outside. Sometimes sunny, sometimes cloudy.

4 December 2020 – 6 December 2020
A whiff of warmth, with temperatures hitting double-digits, moderate sunshine and southerly winds.

7 December 2020 – 9 December 2020
Temperature close to 0C, but chilly wind makes it feel like –10C. Rather cloudy.

10 December 2020
It starts off as the darkest day (measured by solar power reaching earth surface) since 11 December 2016. Temperature is at –1C, so the snow shower which beings early in the afternoon and lasts until early evening, covers the land with white powder. The winter scenery is here for the first time since late January.

11 December 2020
Most of the snow fallen yesterday melts by the morning, the remnants by midday. We return to the gloom and positive temperatures.

12 December 2020 – 22 December 2020
Late autumn with temperature hovering between –2C and +6C returns. Quite stable weather, sadly with no sunshine at all. The gloom and lack of sunlight for 15 consecutive days (sunrays were last witnessed in Warsaw on 7 December) is underwhelming.

23 December 2020
After an overnight whiff of warmth (nearly +10C just past midnight), finally a few hours of long-awaited sunshine.

24 December 2020
Rainy, windy and hitting double-digits. Customarily, Christmas Eve brings a whiff of warmth. It is the seventeenth winterless (i.e. without both snow and frost) Christmas Eve in a row.

25 December 2020 – 26 December 2020
Colder and without sunshine, but with a light dusting of snow on Boxing Day (melts by midday).

27 December 2020 – 28 December 2020
Two days of sunshine, with inclining temperatures, starting from –4C to reach more than +7C.

29 December 2020 – 31 December 2020
The lousy year has late-autumnal ending in Warsaw. Cloudy, rainy and above 0C.

December 2020 was very warm Average temperature in Warsaw was +2.0C (vs. long-term average of –0.7C and Met Office Forecast of +1.0C). Stats:
- month-time high: +11.1C on 5 December 2020,
- month-time low: –4.8C on 2 December 2020,
- the warmest day 5 December 2020 (daily average of +6.9C, just 0.2C degrees warmer than on Christmas Eve):
- the coldest day: 2 December 2020 (daily average of – 2.7C)
- number of days with snow cover: 2,
- the highest snow depth: 1 centimetre on 11 December 2020.

 

1 January 2020 – 7 January 2021
Gloomy autumn refuses to give in. Not a moment of sunshine, at time rain, drizzle or sleet. Dampness in the air. Temperature between –1C and +4C.

8 January 2021
It snows and it melts nearly instantly, as the temperature is near zero and the ground is warm. Shortly before sunset sun emerges from behind clouds.

9 January 2021
After the entire day of the wait, it finally begins to snow in earnest in the evening. I hope the white powder does not melt (the temperature gently below zero, warm ground).

10 January 2021
What has fallen yesterday melts over the day, as the temperature rises above zero for twelve hours.

11 January 2021
Against forecasters, the entire day is sunny, bright and spirit-lifting. Temperature barely above 0C.

12 January 2021
After a reasonably light the day, snow showers come in the evening. Proper winter sets in.

13 January 2021 – 14 January 2021
Slightly below zero, with occasional snow showers. Poland is bracing itself for a cold blast.

15 January 2021
Heavy, but short snow in the afternoon. In the evening the temperature plunges into double digits below zero, for the first time since 2 years and 4 days (yes, the last double-digit frost was recorded in Warsaw on 11 January 2019).

16 January 2021
Not bitterly cold, with daytime high of –2.5C. The heaviest snow this year in the afternoon increases snow depth by 4 centimetres within 2 hours.

17 January 2021
It snows from dawn to dusk, while temperatures hover between –14C and –12C. The coldest night since:
(a) 2 March 2018, (–15.2C),
(b) 7 January 2017, (–19.3C),
(c) 12 February 2012 (–20.0C),
(d) 4 February 2012 (–22.2C),
ahead. It bet the correct answer is (b), namely that the minimum temperature will be in the range from  –19.3C to –15.2C.

18 January 2021
I get I wrong. The correct answer turns out to be (d), as temperature plummets to almost –21C, for the first time since almost 8 years. The day is sunny, but it gets no warmer than –13C. Another cold night ahead and bring on the thaw!

19 January 2021
Morning brings still double-digit frost and snowy weather. Over the day it gets warmer hour by hour, to reach –4C in the evening, when another snow shower hits Warsaw.

20 January 2021
A decent flurry in the morning, but by midday it thaws out. Winter slowly recedes, but it will take a while before six inches of white powder disappear.

21 January 2021 – 22 January 2021
The first, misleading whiff of pre-spring. Plenty of sunshine, temperature between –1C and +8C. Snows melt quickly.

23 January 2021
Thaw continues is a wet and gloomy mode. The rain washes away remnants of the snow.

24 January 2021
Awful late autumn returns. Dark, damp, accursed +1C.

25 January 2021
Snow showers begins in the afternoon, at temperature of +1C. In the evening it gets intense, while temperature falls and the snow lingers.

26 January 2021 – 28 January 2021
The little snow disappears slowly, especially since some light dusting of fresh now is observed occasionally. Between –1C and +1C.

29 January 2021
Below freezing and with gusty wind. Waiting for a snowy and frosty weekend.

30 January 2021
Snow falling from before dawn until after dusk; not heavily, but steadily. 8 centimetres of fresh now accumulate. Gently below freezing.

31 January 2021
A glorious winter, at last. Cloudless, azure skies, crisp snow beneath feet, day-time high of –3C, yet with chilly wind. According to long-term forecasts, we are in for a cold and snowy February.

January 2021 was normal. Average temperature in Warsaw was –1.4C (vs. long-term average of –1.5C and Met Office forecast of +0.4C). Stats:
- month-time high: +8.5C on 22 January 2021 (temperature soared by nearly 30 Celsius degrees within 4 days),
- month-time low: –20.6C on 18 January 2021 (first incidence of temperature below –20C since February 2012),
- the warmest day: 22 January 2021 (daily average of +3.8C),
- the coldest day: 18 January 2021 (daily average of –16.5C, compare it to the coldest day in January 2020, when temperature averaged out –0.7C),
- number of days with snow cover: 18,
- the highest snow depth: 15 centimetres on 20 January 2021.

 

1 February 2021
Exactly a year ago, I posted: “Believe it or not, but the first scent of spring is in the air.” February 2020 was the second-warmest since records began. February 2021 is foreseen to the one of the coldest months since 8 years (in February 2012 temperature averaged out –6.1C in Warsaw).
Today morning greets with low of –13C and the day brings lovely sunshine, maximum temperature of –2C and chilly wind.

2 February 2021
Two intense snow showers: one around noon, the other in the afternoon and then ensues a short thaw. I hope the snow does not disappear completely before negative temperatures return.

3 February 2021
Rain washes away almost all the snow. All-out thaw.

4 February 2021
Within 4 hours temperature declines from +7C to –1C. Some snow falls at sub-zero temperature, but does not linger. We are in for a few days when ground will not be sheltered from solid frost by snow cover.

5 February 2021
Sunny and warmer than expected. Day-time high of 0C.

6 February 2021
If you look outside the window it may seem to be a first intimation of spring. In fact sunshine makes the day-time high of –4C less winterlike.

7 February 2021
Chill and gloom. –12C at night, –9C in the afternoon, a light dusting of snow after sunset.

8 February 2021
It snows from before dawn until late evening. Total precipitation of 9 centimetres brings large swathes of Poland into near standstill. Falling snow is accompanied by gusty wind and temperature between –11C and –8C, which means chemical methods of roads clearing are less effective.

9 February 2021 – 10 February 2021
Occasional snow showers and somewhat higher temperature, i.e. single digit frost, but no warmer than –5C.

11 February 2021
Double-digit frost all time round, light snow showers. Long-term forecast say despite milder winter conditions coming over soon, Warsaw should not reckon for a thaw before the end of February.

12 February 2021
Today without a flurry; windy and sunny. No warmer than –8C, but wind chill of –15C.

13 February 2021 – 14 February 2021
Winter gets mild for the weekend. Day-time highs close to 0C, some sunshine in the afternoon. Forecasts of a big freeze in the coming days have been called off.

15 February 2021
Winter, mild. Light snow. As good as it gets.

16 February 2021
Sunny all day, with day-time high gently below zero. The face of winter I like.

17 February 2021
Snow falls from before dawn until after dusk, at times intensively. Since the temperature is close to the point of freezing, part of the snow melts, part lingers. Salted roads stay clear.

18 February 2021
A perfect winter. –11C in the morning, day-time high of –3C, azure skies. Chilly wind takes the gloss off the finery.

19 February 2021
From –11C at night to freezing rain in the afternoon and thaw in the evening. The winter episode comes to an end.

20 February 2021 – 23 February 2021
Winter retreats. Frosty mornings, afternoons nearing +10C and plenty of sunshine. Snow disappears within those 4 days.

24 February 2021
Central Europe receives a blast of African air. February heat records are broken at several weather stations, including Warsaw. The capital of Poland reports day-time high of +17.5C, thus beating the previous record of +17.2C set on 25 February 1990. Just five days earlier it was –11C.

25 February 2021
After a cold morning (0C) the temperature soars and in full sunshine the heat record set yesterday is broken. Day-time high is +18.3C. Funnily enough, in the nearby forest the snow has not fully melted. I do not remember seeing remnants of snow in such high temperature.
Worth mentioning all-time February heat record for Poland (+21.4C on 25 February 1990) is broken, as in southern Poland temperature reaches +22.1C.

26 February 2021
Colder (below +10C), rainy and chilly. Spring has fallen back quite quickly.

27 February 2021 – 28 February 2021
Sunny, still windy and single-digit positive temperature.

February 2021 was slightly cold. Average temperature in Warsaw was –2.3C (vs. long-term average of –0.4C and Met Office forecast of –0.4C). The month was full of contrasts – from harsh winter into record-setting heat. Stats:
- month-time high: +18.3C on 25 February 2021 (new heat record for February set),
- month-time low: –15.2C on 12 February 2021,
- the warmest day: 24 February 2021 (daily average of +7.9C, as warm as in early April),
- the coldest day: 11 February 2021 (daily average of –11.4C, bitterly cold),
- number of days with snow cover: 19,
- the highest snow depth: 12 centimetres on 12 February 2021.

 

1 March 2021 – 4 March 2021
Sunny or dull pre-spring. Single digits above zero.

5 March 2021 – 7 March 2021
Below zero at night, above freezing during the day. Mostly sunny, but with intermittent snow showers (melting on the ground instantly).

8 March 2021
I wake up to behold a light dusting of snow, which disappears by midday. I wonder if it is the last snow this winter.

9 March 2021 – 10 March 2021
Pre-dawn lows below –5C, day-time highs above 0C, so still a thermal winter. Sunny.

11 March 2021
Frosty morning, clement day. Heavy snow shower begins in the afternoon. The white powder lingers on the ground despite positive temperature. But it will melt overnight and I believe will not be the last snow this winter.

12 March 2021 – 14 March 2021
All faces of pre-spring. Temperature from around 0C to +10C. The weather is moody, so we spells of sunshine, overcast skies, rain, sleet and snow (melting instantly).

15 March 2021 – 17 March 2021
Colder day by day, with night-time frost and low positive temperatures during days. Precipitation, if any, in form of rain.

18 March 2021 – 22 March 2021
A spell of changeable weather with moments of sunshine alternating with snow showers. The white powder does not linger long, or just melts.

23 March 2021 – 31 March 2021
Early spring slowly takes over, with no night-time frost and day-time highs nearing +20C twice. Spring crawls slowly, but for good.

March 2021 was normal. Average temperature in Warsaw was +3.2C (vs. long-term average of +3.2C and Met Office forecast of +2.8C). Stats:
- month-time high: +20.0C on 31 March 2021 (a lovely spring afternoon),
- month-time low: –6.6C on 10 March 2021,
- the warmest day: 31 March 2021 (daily average of +11.6C),
- the coldest day: 20 March 2021 (daily average of –2.1C),
- number of days with snow cover: 4, but on none of them the snow was thicker than 1 centimetre.

 

1 April 2021
The first assault of spring last shortly. +21C around noon and then the weather breaks.

2 April 2021 – 5 April 2021
Sunny, windy and thus chilly, at times rainy. Temperature between –1C and +13C, so it feels like pre-spring.

6 April 2021 – 8 April 2021
Somewhere on the verge of winter and pre-spring. Temperature between –2C and +8C, with gusty winds and several snow showers, including one heavy. Snow at times linger for up to an hour. Large swathes of Europe are haunted by an abnormally late winter incident.

9 April 2021
Just for the record, from my car’s maintenance notes – when I changed tyres for summer ones in recent years:
  7 April 2020,
  4 April 2019,
  3 April 2018,
  1 April 2017,
  2 April 2016,
11 April 2015,
  5 April 2014,
20 April 2013,
20 April 2012.
Which proves in recent five years outbreaks of truly spring weather would come in the first decade of April. 2021 breaks the pattern.
I called me off my tyre change appointment today and put it off until 19 April, by which time the pre-winter should give way to actual spring. Over the next week day-time highs might not exceed +10C on most days, but hopefully the final word of my winter timeline has not been premature.