Pandemic diary – weeks 86 & 87

Monday, 1 November 2021
This year cemeteries have not been closed. I ventured to visit the graves of my relatives yesterday and the day before yesterday, on both days before noon. Cemeteries were anything, but crowded. One could enjoy the spell of late autumnal warmth (day-time highs above +15C).

Tuesday, 2 November 2021
The number of new infections declines on a week-on-week basis. Not a reason to be cheerful, since we can put it down to the bank holiday yesterday.

Wednesday, 3 November 2021
Will Poland follow the path of Britain, where the level of new inflections is high, but fairly stable, without distinct waves? Some experts claim it is conceivable.

Thursday, 4 November 2021
Statistics of new infections catch up after the long weekend, hence over 15,000 cases are reported. But the more terrifying figure is the number of new deaths.
In Slovenia 1 in 460 citizens is tested positive, thus the country breaks the record set in Belgium on 30 October 2020 (1 in 487 citizens tested positive).

Friday, 5 November 2021
The number of fully vaccinated Poles exceeds 20,000,000 (which is less than 53% of population, less those who have died since getting their jab).

Saturday, 6 November 2021
250 million officially reported cases worldwide. I would safely bet the actual number is above 1 billion.
The 7-day average of new infections exceeds 10,000 (in 2020 it hit the mark on 23 October, 14 days earlier), but is 52% lower than on 6 November 2020. I got it wrong, this time fortunately, but by just 2 days. I predict the 15,000 hurdle will be crossed on 13 November.

Sunday, 7 November 2021
The 7-day average of new deaths exceeds 100, which translates into CFR of …, given a customary delay of 14 days between new infections and new deaths. This implies around … of cases are not detected.

Monday, 8 November 2021
10,000 hospital beds occupied. Still far from the peak of around 34,000 occupied in April 2021.

Tuesday, 9 November 2021
The number of new infections in Germany is now higher than during the previous waves. The country has relatively low, given the standards of the Western Europe, vaccination rate, with inhabitants of the eastern land (former GDR) being more reluctant to get the jab.

Wednesday, 10 November 2021
Among 11 best-vaccinated communes (gminy) I see:
5) Warsaw, where I and most of my friends live,
6) Poznań and
7) Wrocław where several of my workmates live,
9) Konstancin-Jeziorna where my father hails from and some of my family members live,
10) Piaseczno, where I grew up,
11) Lesznowola, where my parents live where I resided for nearly 13 years.

Thursday, 11 November 2021
In 2020 the second wave reached its peak (as measured by the 7-day average of new infections). This year the wave is still ascending, yet I predict it might reach a peak in late November and then slowly descend.

Friday, 12 November 2021
The Austrian government a lockdown only for the unvaccinated (except for those recovered). Austria joins the group of countries taking harsh measures to crack down on those unwilling to get the jab. The Polish government has no intention of irritating its mostly brainless electorate.

Saturday, 13 November 2021
The best summary for the way the government handles to fourth wave of COVID-19 in Poland: “Poles are left to their own devices”. Fortunately, FFP2 masks are widely available, whoever wants will find a vaccination centre round the corner.