Pandemic diary – weeks 88 & 89

Monday, 15 November 2021
The first full week of November should bring normalisation of statistics, distorted by two long weekends and consequent scant testing.

Tuesday, 16 November 2021
The 7-day average of new infections exceeds 15,000 (in 2020 it hit the mark on 30 October, 18 days earlier), but is 36% lower than on 16 November 2020. I got it wrong, this time fortunately, but by just 3 days. I predict the 20,000 hurdle will be crossed on 24 November.

Wednesday, 17 November 2021
What a wipe-out! Nearly 25,000 new infections and more than 15,000 hospital beds occupied. The Czech prime minister announced a lockdown for the unvaccinated. The Polish government does not want to mess with anti-vaxxers.

Thursday, 18 November 2021
The 7-day average of new deaths exceeds 200. With such statistics of new infections and 53% of population vaccinated, I believe the number hits 500 in December.

Friday, 19 November 2021
Austria imposes a lockdown for everyone, including the vaccine, for 10 days starting on 22 November and mandatory vaccinations starting from February 2022. They’ve got balls.

Saturday, 20 November 2021
My girlfriend’s unvaccinated mother is down in bed with some sort of infection. She refuses to go to a doctor nor to get tested…

Sunday, 21 November 2021
The 7-day average of new infections exceeds 20,000 (in 2020 it hit the mark on 4 November, 17 days earlier), but is 7% lower than on 21 November 2020. I got it wrong, this time, as the number was hit 3 days earlier than foreseen. I predict the 25,000 hurdle will not be crossed during this wave.

Monday, 22 November 2021
In Romania and Latvia where the delta wave has taken a heavy toll, people rushed to get vaccinated. In Poland the health service begins to get overwhelmed, daily number of deaths is three-digit, though 4 times lower than in early April 2021, but local morons do not seem well convinced they should get their jabs. There has been some increase in first doses (up by more than 50% since trough), but crowds have not rushed to get immunised.

Tuesday, 23 November 2021
Had an antibody test done, more than 5 months after the second dose. My antibody count is 163 BAU/ml, vs. cut-off of 33.8 BAU/ml. Of course there is the humoral response, but definitely I can’t feel comfortable with such immunity. I will need to sign up for the booster in late December or early January.

Wednesday, 24 November 2021
A day of sad records broken:
- 1 in 415 citizens in Czech Republic was tested positive yesterday,
- Warsaw sees record-high number of new infections, i.e. 2,449,
- more than 570,000 people are under quarantine in Poland, the highest number since the onset of the pandemic.

Thursday, 25 November 2021
The 7-day average of new deaths exceeds 300. Most of those deaths could have been avoided. The pace of the pandemic slows down and the inflection point is not far ahead. I bet it is on 2 December.

Friday, 26 November 2021
Just when I thought the record would not be broken, in Czech Republic 1 in 387 citizens was tested positive. This happens in a country where 58.7% of population have been fully vaccinated and 19.4% had been tested positive since the pandemic began. Herd immunity is out of reach.

Saturday, 27 November 2021
The R(t), i.e. reproduction number in Lubelskie and Podlaskie provinces has declined sustainably below 1.0, which means the epidemic is past the peak in new infections. Even without restrictions, this is a natural course of the epidemic driven by patterns of social interactions.