Has the election been rigged?

The exit poll results have a margin error of 2 percentage points in each side, which means if they showed a roughly 50:50 outcome, the actual result would, with over 99% certainty, be in the range of 52:48 in a favor of any candidate. Anybody claiming the exit poll near-miss victory of Mr Trzaskowski is the evidence of manipulation is a downright prat.

The first incidences of glaring irregularities, such as flipping the votes between the candidates have been spotted soon past the run-off. Today we know about several confirmed cases, but do not know whether they are just mistakes (how come?) or a part of a bigger scheme.

I was holidaying in the mountains when the deadline for filing protests was set (16 June) and eventually I have not filed one. Submitting yet another copy of a missive spread by Mr Giertych made no legal sense, while I lacked time to compile my own protest, which would need to be preceded by refreshing the competencies in stats I last used 15 years ago. At the end of the day, it would have gone down the drain anyway.

I the entire discourse many do not recognise the difference between the election result and the voting result. The former is about who has won the vote, the latter about the precise number and percentage of votes scored by each candidate.

If there is a bomb any everyone is preoccupied with discussing if it blows up, the best option is to dismantle it. I was therefore into recounting the votes, at least from polling stations where statistical anomalies were detected, however under strict conditions - by court employees assisted by representatives of both candidates' teams.

I have no hope the procedure would change the outcome. If I were to bet, I would guess Mr Nawrocki would end up with 50.7% of votes (vs. official result of 50.89% and post-recout result of 50.87%).

The rigged election myth is a conspiracy theory and all such theories should be nipped in a bud. As of now it seems there might have been some attempts on a level of single pollling stations to help tip the scales, mostly in favour of Mr Nawrocki. In the event of Mr Trzaskowski victory by an extremely tiny number of votes, this would have done the job, but with hindsight, turned out to be unnecessary.

Pieniny

Back from a nearly week-long foray into the Polish mountains, first non-business trip far beyond Warsaw since November 2024. Given my health-related tribulations, I feared how my lumbar spine and other vulnerable parts of body would endure the strain, but to my surprise, they got on well with it, much better with work-related sitting several hours a day. Over five days I cycled 120 kilometres and hiked 50 kilometres, with elevation gain of almost 3,000 metres in total, a quite something.

On the first day I took my new bike for a first ride longer than 50 kilometres. Velo Czorsztyn, a cycling trail around Jezioro Czorsztyńskie, at times is challenging, as one needs to cycle uphill. The section on the northern shore of the lake is most picturesque and flattest. All in all, one-third of the route is enchanting, the remaining kilometres are to be covered to reach the enjoyable spots.

On the second day I drove to Nowy Targ, to climb Turbacz, the highest peak in Gorce. The ascent involved change in altitude of some 650 metres and took me a bit more than two hours. I hiked with hiking sticks, which is an absolute game-changer. My arms were a bit sore after the hikes, but splitting the body load into four limbs brings a tremendous relief to the lumbar spine. The view from the top of Gorce turned out to be impressive, yet my expectations had been inflated by those claiming panorama of Tatry is break taking. It has not taken my breath away.

On the third day I took a break from major strain, drove to Nowy Targ and took a train to Zakopane, a town I had, shame to admit, never visited before. I considered getting there by public transport only, yet in provincial Poland combining two connections is a risky exercise. But even finding trains is a bit of an exercise, as Google shows you services you can choose from, but does not divert you to specific railway operator. As a result I got there by Luxtorpeda fast train operated by Koleje Małopolskie (PLN 7.20 for a single ticket) and returned by Polregio service (same ticket price). In the very town I have not understood what makes it a tourist hangout. Unless somebody explores Tatry mountains, there are very few reasons to spend holidays there.

On the fourth day the bike came into more intensive use, although the Velo Dunajec trail was shorter and easier than Velo Czorsztyn. The route runs also in a wilder area and is far more scenic, especially on bright, sunny days in warm part of the year when greenery is lush.

On the fifth day I did not have to get anywhere to start out a hike, as my lodgings was next to a tourist trail. I climbed to conquer Trzy Korony and Sokolica – two highest peaks in Pieniny. Although the hike was not long – less than 15 kilometres in total, it involved elevation gain of almost 900 metres, at times with steep ascents. Hot and humid air made this trip most tiresome of all.

After the recent election some have posited not to visit regions where Mr Nawrocki won. I am not into such forms of punishment. In Krościenko nad Dunajcem where I had an accommodation the newly elected president received 69% of votes in the run-off, while in nearby Szczawnica only 55%. I would hazard a guess by merely looking at locals around and on standard of housing, one could guess (with a margin error of some 10 percentage points) whether the local community was in favour of Mr Trzaskowski or of Mr Nawrocki. 

Worth also mentioning provincial Poland follows a different clock than large cities. On June evenings streets of Warsaw are full of people. The market square (note the excess concreted over area) in Krościenko nad Dunajcem at 8:34 p.m. was empty.

The foray was the first long-distance trip for my Skoda Octavia since November 2024. I strived to drive as economically as possible, however conditions (rain on my way to Pieniny, aircon on my way back, hilly landscapes along the way, traffic jams near Kraków) were not conducive. I made it there and back without filling up and the “low fuel” gauge went on after 967 kilometres. The car computer is accurate with respect to actual appetite for petrol. I am quite satisfied with it. In flat terrain, drier and cooler weather and lower speed (I drove 105 kmph on expressway) the engine consumption could drop even below 4 litres per 100 kilometres.

Not the outcome I desired

My scepticism expressed in the recent post harshly contrasted with a pre-mature victory claim made by Mr Trzaskowski. I went to sleep, realising the ultimate vote count would show a tiny gap between the contenders’ scores. I woke up at 3:00 a.m., peeked at the mobile phone to find foul language in messages and realised things were not going right.

Just like over 10 million of my compatriots, over the next days I was shaking off the shock. Most of us were aware the risk of Mr Trzaskowski’s defeat was high, but hoping for the best prevailed over fearing the worst. We need to go through a sense of mourning and learn to live with the choice made under rules of democracy. President in Poland has little power, his biggest tool is the right to veto laws submitted by a government. This partly explains why the election result reflected mandate of the coalitional government to pursue certain policies.

Given the cumulation of mistakes made in the campaign and clumsiness of the current government, with hindsight it turns out Mr Trzaskowski did not deserve a victory. Taking into account all circumstances, it appears the 49.11% score is pretty good. It stands for a percentage of Poles who do not want their homeland to be arranged by Mr Nawrocki, Mr Kaczyński, Mr Mentzen, Mr Braun and the likes.

The defeat should give food for thought also to ordinary people, educated, affluent, living in large cities. We live in a bubble, we know nothing about provincial Poland and its inhabitants, we are not capable of reaching out for them.

The world has begun to move too fast. Those who do not catch up with it and feel lost, lean towards the far-right parties, which do not distinguish between several shades of grey. They paint a black-or-white picture, much easier to grasp and more convincing to those who got lost. Besides, the right-wing have mastered the art of using social media to spread information and target audience with straightforward messages, often containing disinformation. In a world of people addicted to short films and not taking trouble to verify information they receive, the far-right have gotten the edge over centrist and mild leftist groupings. Poland is hence not a lonely island, with Trump’s victory in the USA being the best evidence for it. Democrats keep licking wounds after his victory, as despite their quite decent, but bland 4-year rule, ordinary people have turned their backs on them.

Over 10.2 million votes for Mr Trzaskowski, just under 370 thousand fewer than Mr Nawrocki scored, ought to bear a testimony of a voice of modern, tolerant and pro-European Poland, a voice of stalwart objection to Poland of right-wing politicians’ dreams. We need to stand up for values we cherish and must not be passive if evil is done.

Off for holidays to the mountains soon, the next post in two weeks. 

We know nothing

TV stations have shown two different exit poll results: by Ipsos (Mr Trzaskowski wins, with 50.30% of votes) and by OGB (Mr Trzaskowski wins, with 50.17% of votes). Surveyors of both contractors had to face a large percentage of refusals which additionally raises margin of error.

Over the last week my election-wise mood had its ups and down. Early into the working week I had hopes for a victory. By Friday, having listened to several people worrying and seeing a strong anti-Trzaskowski assault online and offline, I was despondent. Full of premonitions, I entered the silence period yesterday. I took a break from politics. Today in the afternoon I began observing leaking poll results on Twitter. They basically indicated both candidates were going neck in neck, with some tilt towards Mr Nawrocki’s victory, however gaining less than 50.5% of votes.

As of now, I am not over-optimistic. Exit polls might have underestimated Mr Nawrocki. If Mr Trzaskowski is narrowly chosen, PiS will call into question validity of the election. They have already laid foundations for their theory of rigged elections and I bet they will not fall back.

Have a restful night and keep fingers crossed for a better tomorrow.

Marching

I missed it on 4 June 2023, when I was in Wisła. I missed it on 1 October 2023 when I was in Italy. The third time must have been lucky.

On Monday morning many Poles woke up scared of prospects of rising popularity of extreme right-wing politicians. The rude awakening has not been belated. It mobilised the democratic electorate and thus the wind is slowly taken off Karol Nawrocki’s sails.

Odds of Mr Trzaskowski were raised by new facts on Mr Nawrocki’s past coming into the light, uneven performance of both candidates in the TV debate on Friday and Mr Trzaskowski superb performance in an interview with Mr Mentzen yesterday, contrasting with servility of his rival displayed on Thursday. If today’s march has anyhow strengthened support to Mr Trzaskowski, it was worth spending most of Sunday walking with over 100,000 fellow participants.

I feared how my spine and hips would withstand over three hours of standing upright or ambling, but I feel unexpectedly well (after an hour of rest). Vote wisely next week!

The presidential race in 2025 - first battle

After the introductory post in March 2025, despite keeping track of the campaign daily, I have not caught up with commentaries.

The rivalry remained lacklustre, until late April when a debate hosted by Super Express was held and during which Mr Nawrocki slipped his tongue to assert, just like ordinary Poles, he was in possession of only one dwelling. Soon it turned out he departed from truth and past the long weekend in early May the story of a council bedsit wheedled out from a senile man made the headlines each day. The scandal, predictably, has not led to any reshuffle in the polls, as stalwart voters of PiS easily gave credence an explanation of accusations trumped up by secret services.

The debate hosted by the “public” TVP, Polsat and TVN on 12 May, with record-long duration of 3 hours and 40 minutes was the weakest part of the run-up to the election.

On Friday before the first round it was quite clear the run-off would be necessary and which two candidates would fight a battle on 1 June 2025.

The first figures on low turnout by midday were disappointing and hinted at plausible victory of Mr Nawrocki. Rainy weather in late morning was to blame, however skies cleared up in the afternoon and percentage of voters who went to ballots by 5:00 p.m. was above 50%, 3 percentage points higher than in first round in 2020.

In late afternoon, leaking exit polls already indicated at tiny victory of Rafał Trzaskowski (1 or 2 percentage points) and large uncertainty regarding fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh score.

Knowing turnout readings and leaked exit poll results mobilise some voters, I tactically voted late. I did my bit exactly at 6:03 p.m. Quite many people still visited polling stations in Ursynów, however most had already fulfilled their duties beforehand. The district of Ursynów reported a splendid turnout of 63.6% by 5:00 p.m.

The official exit polls results are not a surprise. Mr Trzaskowski triumphs, but has a long way uphill to reach 50% of votes in 2 weeks. Mr Nawrocki, the runner-up, is not far behind his rival. One of far-right candidates, Mr Mentzen, gets around 15% of votes, which is already disturbing. Who gets the fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh score is a big unknown, but if indeed Grzegorz Braun had support of 6%, it is more than disturbing. The three right-wing candidates in total have scored close to 50%. This does not bode well for the run-off.

Before the we face that battle, a quick summary of winners’ scores from recent presidential elections:
2010: Bronisław Komorowski – 53.01%,
2015: Andrzej Duda – 51.55%,
2020: Andrzej Duda – 51.03%.

I believe in 2025 the trend will continue and a winner will have a near miss on a defeat. Do our jobs in a fortnight and by that time, enjoy the good news from Romania!

Contemporary manhood

Mulling over the causes of the recent relationship break-up and trying to learn from my mistakes I have recently pondered upon whys and wherefores of a male I am, I strive to be, or I am expected to be. A great pity one word to describe it is "manhood", which brings out connotation with being a human being, rather than "malehood", which sounds more gender-oriented.

In my journey I have come across an interview with Mr Jacek Masłowski, a founder of Fundacja Masculinum. Not an outstanding one, yet thought-provoking.

As it turns out, the core quandary of today's males is inability to define their manhood. They feel lost between conflicting expectations stemming from traditional role of a man (which have not been nullified) and modern model of manhood.

Women have partly set themselves free from patriarchy, men fall victim to it still, as most of them are lagging behind women and struggle to define their identity. Instead of being the way they wish to be like, they rely on social norms or other people's expectations which make up a lengthy list of dos and don'ts for a "genuine" male. In this maze of expectations men lack self-insight, cannot name their feelings, admit them, not to mention speaking them out.

As Mr Masłowski points out, drawing on his experience from several workshops run for contemporary males (average age of 40), they overly focus on meeting other people's needs and living up to their expectations. This is particularly visible in romantic relationships and to much lesser extent when it comes to contacts with children, parents, siblings, friends or in workplaces.

They end up losing themselves in pursuits of their female partners' expectations mostly to seek their acceptance. The common mistake made here is that a person to be accepted is not a person who they are. With good intentions in mind they lay deceit as foundation of romantic relationships and try hard to slide into it. Some carry on like this for decades, for others the endless struggle is debilitating enough to blow up their relationships.

Another problem Mr Masłowski elaborates on is the quality of males’ relationships, especially with fellow men. Here females, much more open to speak of their weaknesses and failures, prove their superiority which is beneficial to mental health. Men in turn still foster the primeval instinct of rivalry which prompts them to boast of accomplishments and build image of a powerful man who never exposes his frailty. Needless to say, this hardly ever squares with reality. The outcome is that men are plagued by loneliness.

Is there a fix for this? Mr Masłowski uses a metaphor of an armour. He asserts men are told to wear it all the time, although it is heavy and impractical. He posits men should be familiar with armours, but put them on only when necessary, an allegory I consider brilliant.

At the end you should ask if I practice what I preach. My contribution to the failure of my recent romantic relationship suggest I have not. I can only declare to strive not to repeat my mistakes in the future. When hanging out with fellow men, I am straightforward and encourage honesty, especially by embracing all signs of their frailty. I hope more of us, adult, but noy yet middle-aged men, realise we have been walking a dead-end street and it is never too late to turn back.

The black plates – a quarter of century later

Five years ago I promised to repeat the exercise and check how many of the vehicles snapped then would have survived. I cycled around the district on Friday, 25 April after work (the long weekend in early May could decrease chances of cars being spotted) and found out that predictably, most of the vehicles have gone. Some have not been witnessed for years, others (#2, #7, #8 I last saw back last years). Only 5 out of 25 are can be found in the same venues, on the same classic plates.

#11 – Seat Ibiza sits in a car park parallel to al. KEN, south of ul. Belgradzka. Time has not borne a brunt of the vehicle despite being parked in the open air and under trees. The car seems to be in regular use, despite its age of 27.

#12 – Skoda Octavia parked between grey blocks of flats by ul. Żabińskiego has bodywork in the same colour, yet the paintwork seems to be more affected by the elements of weather, particularly by sunlight. The leaflet under the wiper suggests the car is in occasional use only.

#18 – Fiat Seicento with a disabled driver’s card has been forsaken for a while and gets slowly rotten, occupying two parking spaces by ul. Dereniowa. Conceivably, its owner either is badly ill or has passed away and none of the relatives has taken steps to take the car to the scrap yard.

#19 – Nissan Primera sits near the intersection of al. KEN and ul. Belgradzka and looks to have remained in regular use for over 26 years, although not in pristine condition. Quite an achievement, since Nissans produced in 1990s had serious problems with corrosion of bodyworks and undercarriages.

#24 – Toyota Corolla, aged only 25 sits by ul. Dereniowa and definitely is in regular use. I pass it by nearly every time I walk back from the swimming pool and each time is parked in a different spot.

While meandering around the district, I found it difficult to spot cars on black plates. Being kept by one owner for 25 years is a rarity, yet the effort I appreciate. This time I snapped all cars I ran across along the way, regardless of their condition.

The silver Ford Focus parked close to E. Leclerc hypermarket, registered mostly likely in April 2000 (WZZ 796L was the highest number issued). Rust eats it up as it has done with most Fords manufactured in late 1990s and early 2000s.

The flash-yellow (adore the colour) Skoda Felicia Estate, registered in late 1999 is parked close to the intersection of ul. Indiry Gandhi and ul. Cynamonowa. Visually – in a perfect condition (except for the mud dirt). An ideal car for a pensioner to take a weekend trip to a działka. A pity it is not parked in a cosy garage.

The plume-violet Toyota Starlet is parked by ul. Stryjeńskich. It definitely is not in regular use, but every two or three weeks it changes parking lot. At first sight condition of the vehicle is far from perfect and quite soon it is likely to end up on a scrapyard.

For dessert – like a lottery ticket won – two Japanese liftbacks on one photo, taken by ul. Lokajskiego. A Toyota Corolla from early 1998 in a splendid sand-yellow lacquer and a post-lift Honda Civic from mid-1999. Both looking decently. I saw this Honda around neighbourhood on the road a few times, but Corolla does not seem to be driven frequently.

Ogrody SGGW

Early in April, the Warsaw University of Life Sciences informed of opening its green areas to visitors. Hoping that some nice recreational premises, akin to locked-up Natolin palace gardens, are finally available for wider audience, I ventured there on Good Saturday.

First piece of advice – if after reading this review you still decide to pop over there, do not try to get there by car. Apart from environment-related reasons, there is nowhere to park in the vicinity of the venue. I cycled there. To the right – approach the provost’s office – one of landmark edifice of SGGW campus.

Entrance to the recently opened gardens is just behind the building, through a narrow gate hidden between shrubs. One you walk past this and stroll down the marble stairway, to will behold the entire greenery area. A sort of tiny – isn’t it?

Once fully inside, you can take a trip of our lifetime, which will be a 200-metre amble around a dirty pond. No colourful flowers to behold, no birds singing, no other attractions. The place is shrouded in greenery and barely touched by humans and that’s it.

Having left the area quite quickly I cycled down the Warsaw escarpment to Wilanów and turned right into ul. Rzodkiewki, for the first time in my life I put my feet into that area and do not regret.

Having sneaking through posh part of Wilanów and having crossed ul. Pałacowa which runs towards the back entrance to the afore- mentioned Natolin palace I rode through empty fields. Still within boundaries of Warsaw, yet it felt like 20 kilometres from the capital in a rural back of beyond.

Heading home, I reach the northern end of ul. Gąsek, which is one of several spot in Ursynów where time seems to have come to a standstill some time ago. In a distance, a man, probably in his 70’s, walking briskly towards Powsin.

I am certainly in favour of keeping recreational areas open to everyone, yet boasting of it and making a grand ribbon-cutting opening was a bit over top in this particular case.

Road hogs

While ahead of the oncoming election politicians try to scare Poles with migrants whose influx would increase criminality rates, bad news is that migrants are already here and they already wreak havoc. In several low-paid professions migrants from poorer countries will need to fill the gap left by domestic workers reluctant to accept low wages. Such has been the case in all developed countries.

In Poland one of such profession is a “taxi” driver. I put the word which some time ago used to mean what it meant, since on the market spoilt by Uber and Bolt, the over-supply is composed of przewóz osób (literally “a passenger carriage”) and by innowacyjne taksówki (literally “innovative taxis”).

The over-supply of ride-hailing entrepreneurs has brought ride rates to dirt-cheap levels. Given that a taxi driver needs to buy fuel, pay insurance, pay for vehicle maintenance, earn for a vehicle’s depreciation (or rental) and get paid for an hour behind the wheel around the minimum wage, there is no chance a driver can make ends meet with all-in price below PLN 1.50 per kilometre. To minimise costs, they most often used “taxi” car in Warsaw these days is Toyota Prius, the oldest hybrid model, aged over 10, with some half a million kilometres on the clock, with LPG as the third propulsion. Behind the wheel – hardly ever a Pole.

Below the summary of what was happening on the streets of Warsaw over the course of last three weeks. The source of all information and photos are Miejski Reporter or Wawa Hot News 24 pages.

Saturday, 29 March
A Toyota Corolla driver beyond the borders of Warsaw crashes into a roadside tree. The car goes into flames.

Saturday, 29 March
Plac Trzech Krzyży. A Toyota Prius driver cuts in on another driver, causing a smash-up.

Sunday, 30 March
Al. Jerozolimskie, close to Blue City shopping mall. A Toyota Corolla driver rear-ends a queue of vehicles.

Sunday, 30 March
An intersection of ul. Bitwy Warszawskiej 1920 and ul. Szczęśliwicka. A Toyota Prius driver crashes into the other cars. Earlier that day he caused another collision, but he fled from the spot.

Sunday, 30 March
Exactly the same unfortunate spot. A Toyota Prius driver cuts in on two public transport buses.

Sunday, 30 March
Al. Jana Pawła II, a collision of 4 cars, including two ride-hailing vehicles. This time no info if any of the “taxi” driver was the culprit.

Sunday, 30 March
An intersection of ul. Instalatorów and ul. Rakowska. A Toyota Prius driver runs over a cyclist (a food delivery courier).

Friday, 4 April
An intersection of ul. Puławska and ul. Malczewskie- go. Two ride-hailing vehicles (a Toyota Corolla and a Volkswagen Golf) collide.

Sunday, 6 April
Ul. Łokietka. And watch out, this time a Toyota Prius driver was not a culprit, but was unlucky to be in a wrong place, on a wrong time.

Tuesday, 8 April
An intersection of Al. Jerozolimskie and Plac Starynkiewi- cza. A Toyota Prius driver violates the right of way and cuts in on a motorcyclist.

Tuesday, 8 April
An intersection of ul. Rakowiecka and ul. Boboli. A Toyota Prius driver also does not care about the right of way.

Thursday, 10 April.
Ul. Połczyńska. A Toyota Prius driver smashes into another Toyota Prius, which in turn rear-ends an innocent Opel Astra.

Thursday, 10 April
An intersection of al. 4 Czerwca and ul. Chrościckiego. This time Toyota Prius driver is not guilty.

Thursday, 10 April
Ul. Świerszcza. A Toyota Corolla driver causes a head-on collision with a Peugeot.

Friday, 11 April
An intersection of ul. Grójecka and ul. Wawelska. A Toyota Prius driver hits into a Hyundai.

Friday, 11 April
Most Łazienkowski. A Toyota Corolla driver collides with a lorry.

Friday, 11 April
Ul. Woronicza, A Toyota Prius driver, after colliding with another car, lands on tram tracks.

Friday, 11 April
An intersection of ul. Pilewskiego and ul. Ciszewskiego. A Toyota Prius driver fails to give right of way to a BMW.

Friday, 11 April
An intersection of ul. Ciszewskiego and ul. Rosoła. A Toyota Corolla driver also does not give a damn about right of way.

Wednesday, 16 April
An intersection of al. Jana Pawła II and ul. Nowolipki. Again, a Toyota Prius driver and the right of way violated.

Thursday, 17 April
An intersection of al. Jerozolimskie and ul. Krucza. A Toyota Yaris Cross driver hits a pedestrian.

 

 

I am not urging you not to take cheap taxis in Warsaw, but beware, as the risk of not reaching your destination safe and sound is elevated. Meanwhile, have a peaceful Easter!

The new bicycle - first proper impressions

As spring has turned up (as of now for good), time to share first impressions of riding the bike I bought in Febraury. Oddly enough, this spring season price lists have not been revised up as substantially as in previous years, so my savings from purchasing the vehicle in the dead of winter (-14C outside as I was placing the order online) were not as high, as I had envisaged.

When making a decision on the purchase I felt kind of insecure given another wave of health problems commencing, yet quickly I realised I keep fighting to see the back of them, the purchase is for many years and even if this year I will be forced to confine to shorter trips, they will be comfortable for my spine, which would not be the case with my old mountain bike.

So far I did four proper rides:
- 8 kilometres on 6 March (to a local library and back, slowly in dense traffic on cycling paths, no issues with the spine),
- 14 kilometres on 9 March (to my parents and back, actually 7 kilometres times 2, no issues),
- 28 kilometres on 29 March (too fast pace, lack of bottle of water did no good, I leaned forward to decrease wind impact and strained my lumbar spine - lesson learnt to treat myself mildly),
- 20 kilometres on 3 April (moderate pace, a bottle of water with me, upright position kept, no issues with the spine, hip joints sore, but they ache recently anyway).

I have gotten used to upright position and consequently holding my head much higher than on MTB. The gravity load is not comfortably low, hence I need to slow down before turning. Otherwise losing balance and toppling over is a serious risk.

I had to get accustomed to changing gears with two shifts, one for upshifting, the other for downshifting. A pedal-propelled lighting is a convenient - no need to disassemble lights to charge up batteries. Accessories-wise I only bought a brand-new bottle rack and a saddle pad and thereby my investments in the bike are over.

Now I put my faith in my joints and bones ought to see better days, to let me make much more extensive use of the vehicle and not only. The health-related uncertainty is holding me back from moving forward in most areas of life.

Winter Timeline 2024/25

Forecasts for the last winter consensually predicted above-average temperature and precipitation in all months and turned out be indeed warmer than average, but by no means remarkably warm and drier than average, especially in its second half.

 

October 2024 was frost-free in Warsaw, albeit temperature fell below +3C seven times (month-time low of +1.3C on 12 October 2024). The capital of Poland was one of few places in Poland which escaped negative temperatures over that month. Note 50% of recent ten Octobers were frost-free (2017, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024). In the twentieth century first frost in November in Warsaw was a rarity.

 

The first frost (–2.8C) was measured on 3 November 2024. The first decade of November was abundant in morning frosts, yet average temperatures were late-autumn-like. Sleet was observed during rush hour on 14 November 2024.

21 November 2024
First flurry observed in the morning, stays on the ground for a little while, but melts long before midday.

22 November 2024
First proper snow. Begins to fall before dawn, settles for good, then only partly melts during the day.

23 November 2024 – 24 November 2024
Autumn clashes with winter. Temperature barely above 0C, all sorts of precipitation. Damp and chilly.

25 November 2024
Autumn definitely wins. Day-time high of +12C in full sunshine. I couldn’t be more elated.

26 November 2024 – 30 November 2024
Autumn shows its grey, miserable face. Between 0C and +8C, cloudy, rain showers.

November 2024 was normal. Average temperature in Warsaw was +3.9C (vs. long-term average of +3.8C). This was the coldest November in Warsaw since 2016. Stats:
- month-time high: +13.1C on 1 November 2024,
- month-time low: –4.4C on 6 November 2024,,
- the warmest day: 1 November 2024 (daily average of +11.5C):
- the coldest day: 22 November 2024 (daily average of –0.5C, the only day of thermal winter in that month)
- number of days with snow cover: 4,
- the highest snow depth: 4 centimetres on 22 November 2024 and 23 November 2024.

 

1 December 2024
The weather pattern from the last days of November continues.

2 December 2024
Skies clear up around 10:00 a.m. to give a few hours of sunshine. I strive to make the most of it, since it is predicted not to be in sight for several days.

3 December 2024 – 11 December 2024
Pre-winter shows its ugliest face. Nearly no sunshine. Rain, drizzle, sleet, damp air, gloom. Temperatures ranging from –1C to +6C. The only benefit is that winter weather does not disrupt the daily grind.

12 December 2024 – 13 December 2024
Finally sunshine and clear blue skies. Temperature typical for a Polish December – i.e. close to freezing.

14 December 2024
Was supposed to be the third sunny day in a row, but the weather packed up. Chilly.

15 December 2024
A thin blanket of snow is witnessed in the morning. It disappears by midday. Some bits of sunshine. Long-term forecasts indicate this might have been the only snow this December.

16 December 2024 – 17 December 2024
In a howling wind and downpours temperature reaches +10C, but it definitely does not feel warm.

18 December 2024 – 20 December 2024
A series of relatively warm, autumnal days.

21 December 2024 – 25 December 2024
A tad colder, generally between 0C and +5C, with some bits of sunshine.

26 December 2024
Sunshine from dawn to dusk. Frosty morning, reasonably warm afternoon.

27 December 2024 – 31 December 2024
As gloomy as it can be, with temperature gently above freezing, overwhelming darkness and greyness. Fogs and drizzle in abundance.

December 2024 was very warm. Average temperature in Warsaw was +2.9C (vs. long-term average of –0.1C). Stats:
- month-time high: +10.5C on 19 December 2024 (and it got colder for Christmas, not customarily),
- month-time low: –5.5C on 14 December 2024,
- the warmest day 19 December 2024 (daily average of +9.9C),
- the coldest day: 14 December 2024 (daily average of – 1.8C, one of two days in the entire month with mean temperature below 0C),
- number of days with snow cover: 1,
- the highest snow depth: 1 centimetre on 15 December 2024.

 

1 January 2025 – 2 January 2025
A warm entry into the new year, with gusty winds heralding a shift towards mild winter.

3 January 2025
Snow falls on and off, but most of it melts, as the temperature stays just above 0C. A major blizzard in the evening.

4 January 2025 – 5 January 2025
Two bright, yet frosty days. Of note – these are the first two days with maximum temperature below 0C this winter.

6 January 2025
Overnight snow turns into freezing rain. Streets in Warsaw become ice rinks. By midday it begins to melt rapidly. Gone is the short winter episode.

7 January 2025
Late autumn in its ugliness returns.

8 January 2025
Sleet during the day freezes over on roads and pavements in the evening.

9 January 2025
From freezing rain in the morning, into sleet, rain and temperature topping at +7C. Weather in Warsaw this January is anything, but stable.

10 January 2025
The last day of windy, autumnal weather, before winter hits for a while. Forecasts say the snow cover might reach over 10 centimetres by Sunday evening, but I believe it will be no more than 4 centimetres.

11 January 2025 – 12 January 2025
Two days of rather intense snow showers. Temperature either very close to 0C or just below freezing. Most of the snow lingers.

13 January 2025 – 14 January 2025
Not much below 0C, but with no new supplies of white powder. This short-lasting winter incident ends with freezing rain.

15 January 2025 – 17 January 2025
A mild, dull thaw, with overcast skies, chilly wind and temperature not exceeding +3C.

18 January 2025 – 23 January 2025
Hell knows if we should call it very late autumn or very early spring. Some days are sunny, some cloudy. Reasonably warm – between –1C and +5C.

24 January 2025 – 26 January 2025
Spring is in the air for the first time in 2025. Most of the time sunny. Temperature positive in single digits. Windy.

27 January 2025 – 30 January 2025
Four days with day-time highs above +10C, spells of sunshine and scent of spring felt in the air.

31 January 2025
Temperature lower than in previous days, yet +7C is still a lot given we are in the middle of winter. First proper rainfall since 16 days.

January 2025 was very warm. Average temperature in Warsaw was +2.5C (vs. long-term average of –1.5C). Stats:
- month-time high: +11.7C on 30 January 2025,
- month-time low: –7.2C on 5 January 2025,
- the warmest day: 29 January 2025 (daily average of whopping +9.5C),
- the coldest day: 5 January 2025 (daily average of – 3.8C),
- number of days with snow cover: 10,
- the highest snow depth: 6 centimetres on 13 January 2025.

 

1 February 2025 – 4 February 2025
The weather swings somewhere between late autumn and early spring. Cloudy, damp, but with short spells of sunshine. Above freezing most of the time.

5 February 2025
A short episode of clear skies from dawn to dusk and positive temperature.

6 February 2025 – 8 February 2025
The weather gets changeable and on the last day of the period shifts from gloom into brightness. Chilly

9 February 2025 – 10 February 2025
A high pressure system takes over, bringing cloudless skies, sunny days, surprisingly windy air and temperatures ranging from –8C at dawn to +2C in the afternoon. The deficiency of precipitation is disturbing.

11 February 2025
An absolutely ghastly day. The coldest morning of the winter so far, day-time high below –5C, wind chill below –10C.

12 February 2025 – 13 February 2025
Sunshine and afternoons with positive temperature return for a while. Note February has been snow-free so far, despite markedly negative temperatures.

14 February 2025
At last, a belated snow cover has appeared overnight and has not disappeared during the day.

15 February 2025 – 16 February 2025
Mild frost, wind chill close to –10C, some snow showers, sparse sunshine.

17 February 2025
For the first and probably for the last time this winter temperature plunges below –14C. Then ensues an entirely sunny, yet still frosty day.

18 February 2025 – 20 February 2025
Winter carries on, getting milder day by day, with snow falling on and off and some spells of sunshine.

21 February 2025 – 23 February 2025
Winter gradually retreats, with full sunshine in place, still frosty mornings, but balmy afternoons.

24 February 2025 – 27 February 2025
Warmer, with little sunshine. Gloomy pre-spring (or maybe early spring).

28 February 2025
The last day of the month is rainy, but four millimetres of precipitation will not make up for a long deficiency of rainfall.

February 2025 was normal. Average temperature in Warsaw was –0.5C (vs. long-term average of –0.4C. It was the first colder than average month since May 2023. Besides, it was the driest February since records began, with total precipitation of merely 7 millimetres. Stats:
- month-time high: +10.1C on 26 February 2025,
- month-time low: –14.3C on 17 February 2025 (being the lowest temperature of the entire winter and one of two incidences of double-digit frost this winter),
- the warmest day: 27 February 2025 (daily average of +6.7C),
- the coldest day: 17 February 2025 (daily average of –7.2C),
- number of days with snow cover: 7,
- the highest snow depth: 2 centimetres, between 16 February 2025 and 20 February 2025.

 

1 March 2025 – 2 March 2025
March gives a cold welcome, with rain and sleet. Gently above 0C.

3 March 2025 – 4 March 2025
A tad warmer day by day, waiting for the first spring episode.

5 March 2025 – 12 March 2025
Spring hits at full blast, with afternoon highs above +15C, but cold, even frosty mornings (daily temperature fluctuations reaching up to 20 Celsius degrees) and clear blue skies.

13 March 2025 – 14 March 2025
A pre-mature spring episode comes to an end. Cooler weather is accompanied by much desired rainfall, at times heavy.

15 March 2025 – 19 March 2025
Arctic air comes over, with frosty mornings, single-digit day-time highs and plenty of sunshine.

20 March 2025 – 31 March 2025
Basically not a trace of winter (except for one frosty morning). Had the tyres changed for summer ones in Octavia on 27 March.

March 2025 was extremely warm. Average temperature in Warsaw was +7.0C (vs. long-term average of +3.2C, at the par with March 2014 and March 2024, but colder than in March 2007, when temperature averaged out +7.2C). Stats:
- month-time high: +21.1C on 10 March 2025 (the earliest incidence of temperature above +20C in Warsaw ever, beating the previous record set on 17 March 2012),
- month-time low: –5.0C on 16 March 2025 (soon was the warmth missed),
- the warmest day: 10 March 2024 (daily average of +12.5C, a May-like weather),
- the coldest day: 17 March 2025 (daily average of +0.7C),
- number of days with snow cover: 0.

 

First days of April brought spring-like warmth, the afternoons bringing temperatures jus below +20C. The weather broke yesterday, with an inflow of an arctic mass of air. Temperature plunged, intense snow showers came on and off and continued overnight, but the snow did not linger. Average temperatures by the end of first decade of April are unlikely to be markedly above 0C, next snow showers are not unlikely, however even if the winter is not over now, its last gasp is near.