Conspiracy theories

There are a few things I can be ashamed of in my life. One of them is an episode of fascination with conspiracy I went through on the verge of adolescence and adulthood. Countless theories of other than official course of events in 9/11 terrorist attacks and climate change denialism were my focus for a while around 2007. For a grown-up, yet immature lad the uncanny explanations were compelling and fortunately, meaningless in the long run.

Then came the tenth day of April in 2010 when a Polish plane carrying 96 people tragically crashed in Smolensk. Circumstances of the accident have immediately become a fertile ground for conspiracy theories, which for years continued to mark a divide line in the Polish politics. I was three years older and much wiser, not to fall for stories of assassination, artificial fog, metal-hard birch, explosives found in the wreck and other stuff.

A year and a half ago an epidemic caused by a novel coronavirus broke out in China. The peril was shrugged off and covered up by the local authorities who acted belatedly. The virus, which could have been kept at bay, spilled all over the world and turned lives of virtually everyone upside down.

Now go back in time to July 2019 and imagine somebody telling you about lockdowns, overwhelmed health service, major increase in mortality, economy and social life running into a standstill, shut down industries, compulsory mask-wearing. You would laugh them off. The unimaginable has become a reality.

Here is what underlies each single conspiracy theory – an event so complex, so improbable, so hardly imaginable, going beyond people’s comprehension, that it calls for a simple clarification. A human mind does not like to make too much effort. It yearns for quick solutions instead of uphill and mind-bending pursuit of intricate truth.

People are sick of isolation, remote learning and working, restrictions. They hanker after normalcy. No wonder some of them, less intelligent and more gullible, fall for simple explanations, telling them the virus is a hoax, the pandemic had been planned in advance and under its guise a new order of the world is brought in. Such people have always been, yet in pre-Internet times just a handful of them were indulging in their vision of the world. With social media giving everybody a chance to share their thoughts, their visions are spread far too far and wide. They take fancy of (usually) poorly educated people who, having gotten familiar with shady articles, memes or video, claim to have knowledge superior to epidemiologists and virologists. 9/11 or Smolensk conspiracy theories referred to past events and were relatively harmless. Today, the narration of a false pandemic and bleating of the anti-vax movement can cost health and lives of millions of people. Disturbingly.

One year into PiS in power

As the PiS government stages a splendid conference to boast of plentiful attainments of its first year in charge of Poland, I feel obliged to tack on some facts to remind of and underline the most recent success stories credited to this government and contributing to the outlook of blindingly bright future for Poland

Poland’s GDP grew by mere 2.5% in 3Q2016, falling short of economists’ consensus of 2.9% and being the worst readout since late 2013. The figure is just a preliminary estimate by stats office and has not been broken down into components, but judging by the trend observed in recent quarters, the drop in investments could have been the main factor behind the meagre expansion. Mr Morawiecki, Poland’s Development and Finance Minister (and deputy prime minister) claimed the slowdown was temporary and upheld his ministry’s forecasts of 3.4% GDP growth in 2016 (to make it happen, the Polish economy would need to expand by approximately 5% in 4Q2016 on simplifying assumption there is no seasonality, but by all accounts by more than 4%).

I have no idea why the former CEO of Santander-owned Bank Zachodni WBK belies reality. I only wonder whether he knows he is in the doghouse or so deeply believes the policies he pursues are appropriate. Whichever supposition is right, I am kind of sure with such figures budget deficit is likely to rise above 3% of GDP in 2016. Mr Morawiecki is somewhat right while assuring GDP is not the uppermost measure of economic well-being, but in the same interview he stresses importance of investments for the Polish economy. The problem is however that in the meantime investments are falling back.

Fortunately the bright spark of the Polish nation, an ordinary deputy Jarosław Kaczyński (balancing on the verge of paranoia) has found a scapegoat to take the blame for poor GDP growth – these are entrepreneurs linked to opposition who halt their business plans and give up on profits they could make just to spite the government.

Yields on Polish 10-year bonds have soared above 3.5%, meaning their price is the lowest since over 2 years. Partly to blame is the victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election which led to more uncertainty on financial markets. The choice made by Americans is cherished by advocates of the PiS government. I hope they have noticed it has twofold impact of Poland’s debt service costs, via increased yields at which new government bonds are issued and via higher balance of debt denominated in foreign currencies (PLN has depreciated against major currencies recently).

This week the lower house of the Polish parliament passed a draft law reinstating pension age of 60 for women and 65 for men, thus reversing the retirement age increase brought into law by the previous PO-PSL government in 2012. While governments across the world raise the pension age and tackle inevitable demographic changes to sustain the proportion of labour force to those receiving benefits from the public purse, Poland takes a step back while the bill will be paid in the next decades. The only bright side I discern is that benefits for early retirees will be low enough to effectively discourage people from pensioning off.

When it comes to pursuit of PiS’ economic agenda, the fewer promises they keep, the better for the economy (not necessarily for social spending beneficiaries, especially multi-child poor families receiving the 500plus child allowance). Having the choice between two evils, I prefer they get busy with dead-end Smolensk religion whose cost (except for pain for families of crash fatalities) is thousands times lower than of “reforms” mentioned above. By the way, preliminary results of late president Kaczynski and his wife’s autopsy indicate a transport accident as death cause, the only thing in question is whether the plane capsized before hitting the ground.

Time passes by and level of absurdities around soars. The day before yesterday PiS politicians commemorated the 14th anniversary of Lech Kaczynski taking office of mayor of Warsaw. I hence put forward official celebrations of Lech Kaczynski:

- being born in 1949 (18 June),

- finishing studies in 1971, receiving PhD in 1979 and doctor habilitowany titles in 1990 (dates to be ascertained),

- getting married in 1978 (27 April),

- becoming a minister of justice in 2000 (12 June),

- being appointed the governor of Najwyższa Izba Kontroli in 2001 (14 February),

- being elected the president of PiS in 2001 (29 May),

- being sworn in as president of Poland in 2005 (23 December),

- telling a drunkard to go away in 2002 (spieprzaj dziadu) (4 November).

Also on Friday came to the light news of prosecutors from Gorzów Wielkopolski who have been chasing after Hanna Zdanowska, mayor of Łódź since February 2016 and accused her of loan frauds, allegedly committed in 2008 and 2009. Oddly enough a bank which granted a loan has not filed any charges against Mrs Zdanowska and the loan, as each and every fraudulent loan, has been repaid… This is one of first examples of PiS-controlled prosecutors clumsily attempting to sling mud at politicians of opposition.

On Friday I attended a conference during which one of renowned speakers told despite not just a flash in pan, populism will  wear down, as any other ideology. Neoliberalism and neokeynesianism have worn down and have had destructive influence on economies in last stages of their prevalence; the same path will be taken by populism. The only worry we should all have at the back of our heads is that damages inflicted to societies and economies by populists will be more painful.

But as the speaker said, we have to let things drift. Populism will not be eradicated by educated minorities. These must be masses, currently enchanted by populists that will have to realise they would have been double-crossed. It will take time and involve a price to pay, but after we persevere it, a better world might emerge. Or our civilisation might conceivably wind down irreversibly, a scenario which I have feared over the past months.

On public appearances

Not the perfect day for political musings. One observation I will not hold back on sharing is that given the magnitude of bylejakość, tumiwisizm, couldn’t care less approach and faith things will somehow fall into place, a tragedy in scale similar to the Smolensk crash is just a matter of time…

The post inspired by Michael’s deliberations on delivering public speeches, structured as a response to it, supplemented by odd thoughts and questions straying away from the main topic.

As someone who regularly addresses audiences I'm not fazed by the thought of speaking to a few score people.

The stage freight, or lack of it; is it inborn and hard to overcome, or something humans can have influence on? Some individuals are said to be born leaders or born speakers. Some people are born shy, some bold, some feel up to stand in front of people, for some it is one of the worst torments – so does not public speaking take talent?

As a teenager in middle and high-school I was a member of a school theatre. My friends and I would put in humorous self-written plays (rather than playing out dramas) dealing with current topical issues, often politics. The experience has tamed by fear of appearing in front of tens or sometimes hundreds of people, but also has developed spontaneity, as we did not have to stick to someone else’s script..

I sat down for a total of four hours to prepare and polish a speech.

How much preparation is essential? One cannot (or should not?) deliver a speech totally extemporising, as subjects may be too serious to give room for that much free-style, but on the other hand polishing up each single word of a speech to be made and then sticking to the draft word for word smacks of an exaggeration and unnaturalness.

As a student I was always most fond of scholars who delivered their lectures without aid of notes. They just came to the room, without a single piece of paper and could talk for hour and half, not because they had learnt by heart their lecture, but because the wisdom they intended to pass on was well-structured in their heads.

And my most recent experience – around a month ago I knew I would be participating in a workshop aimed at improving collaboration between two departments. I was supposed to be a passive participant. The day the workshop was due to be held I showed up at the office at 8:15 a.m., opened up by mailbox and found the message from my boss, who for personal reasons could not attend the event and had asked me to stand in for him. He had enclosed a presentation and wished me good luck, expressing his faith I was up to this task. I stared at the screen for a while and brought back the credo I sent to my former colleagues the day I was leaving the Employer: “whatever looms as a problem, treat as a challenge”. Challenge accepted!

Delivering the speech, I did not feel comfortable. I was neither reading verbatim from a prepared text, nor was I extemporising around a set of hastily scribbled notes (as is my usual habit). I was also conscious of the race against time. Because I was filling in around the main points, the output was a hybrid of the structured and unstructured; key facts and figures surrounded by a stream-of-consciousness conversational style.

The style of speaking does matter and one could argue whether it is the style or the content (probably both) that makes audience swallow every word flowing from a speaker’s mouth. I dislike people who read out their speeches. My impression whenever listening to such speeches, often monotonous, making audience falling asleep, is that the link between a speaker and their speech is lost. When building sentences off the cuff one shows up their linguistic skills as well as put their heart and brains (rather than only mouth) into delivering the speech.

My preference is to fall back on some notes, being the agenda of things to cover in a speech / presentation and serving as reminders of some stuff which should be highlighted to make the appearance desirably effective.

As I was delivering the workshop I felt uncomfortable for another reason – it had been meant to be run by a senior manager, whose role was to point up shortcomings of other people’s behaviours and bring people on looking critically at their conduct and putting forward what improvements could be made. Stepping into a senior manager’s shoes was far more distressing for me that having around one hour to work up a concept for the workshop. I had the great comfort of knowing what I would be talking about, knew well my audience (around 40 people) who would be wondering why I had been chosen to be in charge of instructing them how to improve their work.

If you think you're good, you're comparing yourself with the wrong people. Too often I hear "Panie Michale, pana była najlepsze prezentacja" simply because the others were soporific - lawyers reading dense slabs of text from a PowerPoint slide, or else people with an all-too-visible dread of public speaking.

My university experience reminds me here of the PowerPoint disease, the worst ailment of speakers and presenters. Reading out the content of a displayed presentation is the quickest way to bore your audience to death and gain notoriety of a poor speaker. A good question is then to what extent contents of PowerPoint slides and a speech should overlap. My own recipe for a decent presentation is to establish a thin link between the presentation and the speech. The slides may contain pictures, graphs, charts and main points the speech revolves around. People should listen to you, but not instead of reading when they see on slides. Down-to-earth content is what I would prefer to pack into attachments sent out to audience; those really interested would familiarise with it and keep in their files after the presentation anyway.

The fear of public appearances also makes itself felt and is discernible for the audience. I cannot claim to be unfamiliar with the stage freight, yet by no means it paralyses me. It does not stimulate me neither, but to overcome some bit of it, I tell myself if my listeners’ opinion on me is low, I am unlikely to change it. Keeping calm whatever happens is the best advice I can give. Once you make a mistake, you will not reverse it, leave it behind, erase from your memory immediately and focus on what lies ahead to avert next botch-ups.

What's the secret? To convey wisdom, not facts. People want insight, not statistics. I could have started more strongly - either with a memorable anecdote, or a startling comparison. I could have ended with a searching question. More pauses were needed - my fellow trainees said they had difficulty in digesting what I'd said, because I was in a hurry to beat the five-minute deadline.

The point about wisdom is spot-on, yet insufficient for a speaker to enchant their audience. Brilliant speech is composition of many factors: choice of words (plain language), flow and tone of voice, the aforementioned pausing and silence, body language (striking a balance between standing still and being too fidgety or over-gesticulating is an art), amount of anecdotes and humour to be interspersed throughout the speech (which should not be confused with stand-up). The balance, suited to content to the speech and situation is then essential. On top, I would pose a question whether a good speech should be a monologue or should a speaker interact with the audience, ask them questions, encourage listeners to challenge them? And to what extent should a speaker dominate audience? Shy speakers barely keep eye contact with audience who with time drift away, while too aggressive speakers who shout, run around, insist viewers take part in their show also are disliked by many…

Charles also declared war on waffle, on unintelligible words, on jargon. ('Pursuant' is one I particularly dislike.) "Use words that you use in natural speech, as though you were speaking to your aunt."

Excellent point. This has been said many times, yet deserves to be repeated; an outstanding presenter knows how to put complex phenomena into simple words, so that they become graspable for an ordinary recipient.

Know in advance where you'll be speaking, what the podium is like, try out the sound system and IT beforehand to check it all works as it should - and above all, who your audience is, and what it expects.

Back to my experience of delivering the workshop. I kept the cool head. Before other participants turned up to the hotel where the event was due to be held, I walked there earlier and blatantly asked technical crews to set up the IT, to avoid being distracted by non-core stuff.

With hindsight, given how “my” workshop was praised by participants, seems I did quite well. If I had a chance to deliver the same workshop, I would cut back on number of jokes in the introductory part of the presentation. I wanted to relieve the tension audience had, their faces were telling me they did not fancy my (often auto-ironic) jokes and though I did not make a piss of myself, I was horsing about, not something I could boast about.

Now, looking forward to next opportunities to make public appearances. Just like dancing, swimming or travelling, this is the way of giving off to the world the spare positive energy I have inside me.

Safety first

I cannot get the accident of president’s limousine out of my head. I would have probably gotten over the affair, had journalists of Rzeczpospolita not cast a new light on the circumstances of the accident. Findings the journalists have come into possession (probably from Opole prosecutor’s office which runs investigation on the smash-up) paint an appalling picture of a string of wrongdoings that fortunately have not had tragic consequences.

The key takeaways are as follows:

1. The notorious six-year-old tyre was rendered out of use and waited in a warehouse for being recycled. Since the new tyres were not in place (previous tyres had been damaged on 20 January 2016 and new ones for some reasons have not come in), it was decided to put in the worn-out tyres, as the limousine was badly needed to be roadworthy.

2. On 4 March 2016 when the accident took place, the limousine covered a 100-metres long steep, icy, stony slope uphill to carry the president directly to a ski-lift in Karpacz. The terrain should not have been trespassed by any vehicle other than SUV of the Mountain Rescue Services (GOPR).

3. On the way from Karpacz to Wisła, on A4 motorway, the driver ignored warnings from the vehicle’s computer of too low pressure in the tyre. The quoted reason for the negligence was haste to make up for a one-hour delay in president’s trip schedule.

4. The problem with pressure in the tyre could have been ignored for a while, had the vehicle moved at the speed no higher than 80 kmph (the special tyres assembled in VIP-carrying cars are designed to withstand up to 100 kilometres nearly flat, provided the car does not exceed a specified velocity), while the actual speed was above 160 kmph.

5. The column of VIP vehicles was followed by a civil car, driven by a social media expert from the president’s office.

A few heads have rolled immediately after the accident, however senior management of BOR who oversee security of the most prominent officials, shirk responsibility for all the negligence that put the president’s life in jeopardy.

Who is then to blade for the accident? As always, the long-gone nominees of the previous government. Current executives of BOR have filed charges to prosecutor’s office against their predecessors (its content is confidential, but we know the a procedure of tyre maintenance, allegedly wrongful, had been set up in line with BMW’s guidelines).

It is beyond all doubt those no longer in service:

- crept into the garage in which the limousine was parked and installed the worn-out tyres,

- drove the BMW up the icy hill,

- ignored on-board computer signals,

- raced 170 kmph on a busy motorway.

The way BOR headship explain away the mess they have given assent for is ludicrous. PiS have managed to fire and hire thousands of people. PO- and PSL-affiliated henchmen were kicked out of their warm chairs and replaced by PiS partisans, but they have not managed to review safety procedures (which they claim were faulty) nor to come by a spare set of tyres. The pitiable blame-storming also bears testimony of competencies of new management of BOR. An average car user knows after buying a second-had car or taking over a car from someone else, it is within their best interest to have the car thoroughly inspected. An average driver also knows a tyre should be replaced after five years regardless of tread depth, since mixture from which it is made loses its properties. Exceptions to this might be taken by those who drive calmly around town, but not those travelling at high speeds on motorways. BOR’s primary responsibility is to make sure the statesmen are properly protected. The 4 March 2016 incident proves they have buggered it up all the way, sadly.

Semblances with the Smolensk tragedy spring to mind naturally. In both cases the list of irregularities that led up to the catastrophe is long and in both cases the tragic end was the aftermath of many, not one, misdeeds, including the crucial one – attempting to stick to the agenda at all cost. It finally needs to be spoken out – people responsible for security of the statesmen should always set safety procedures ahead of agendas, schedules, delays as well as comfort and whims of politicians. The (yet another) skiing foray of the president shows lesson from the Smolensk tragedy have not been learnt. I wonder what else the investigation reveals and how politicians of the ruling party, good at denying evident facts, react to those findings.

The quest for a better tomorrow

The day when the new police law comes into force coincides with the monthly overview of Poland’s new rulers’ attainments. As a relatively unpopular foreign-language blogger, I consider my place at the list of enemies of the good change is near the bottom, so I feel free to share my thoughts.

On 19 January the Polish prime minister participated in a debate on threats for democracy in Poland. The course of the debate and its repercussions were a debacle of liberals and a huge victory for Mrs Szydło (whose hollow words and declarations made much better impression than worthless utterances of leftist and liberal deputies) and for all EU-sceptical politicians who put in superb stunt as allies of PiS. The timing of the debate coincided with the news of several refugee rapes in Germany being concealed from the public, a water to the mill of those claiming Germany has no right to interfere into functioning of democracy in Poland if in the name of political correctness they covered up crimes committed by jobless rabble…

On Monday the banking tax came into effect. The draft of the retail trade tax is now in the phase of public consultation and nearly everyone involved tears a strip off it. In the shape it is put forward the biggest retailers who were supposed to bear the burden of the tax are likely to be beneficiaries of it. The most dreadful part of the tax which might be a nail to the coffin of small retailers and which might send several people unemployed is the highertax rate for turnover generated on Saturdays, Sundays and on bank holidays. This will also mean end of cheaper petrol over weekends (it is less costly because many company cars can be fuelled up only during the working week), bigger discrepancies between prices working-week and weekend prices (typical practice for repricing food produces in Auchan) and generally lower competition, since some retailers will drop off. Customer beware, you will pay the bill anyway!

By the way, formally each draft law undergoes public consultation under the lawmaking process. Sound commendably, but I wonder when any amendment proposed by the opposition or any other entity participating in the consultation is included into any final legal act.

The PLN 500 child allowance draft law is also being consulted. There was a short discord between the ministry of finance and the government, but Mr Szałamacha was swiftly taken to the task. Funding for the generous giving away is secured for 2016, when the programme will be serviced only over nine months and when one-off proceeds of PLN 9 billion from LTE frequency auction are to flow in, but streams of revenues which will finance the allowance from 2017 onwards have not been defined. Besides, politicians of PiS keep on appealing to the wealthiest Poles not to apply for the allowance, instead of setting an income cap above which parents would not be entitled to the benefit.

Besides, worth mentioning pace of works on the draft bears testimony to the greatest lie of the pre-election campaign. On 20 October 2015, as the TV debate between Mrs Kopacz and Mrs Szydło was drawing to a close, Mrs Szydło showed a blue file with ready drafts of new laws. She also told she would show the documents during a conference right after the debate. Needless to say subsequently Mrs Szydło only waved the file and has never showed any draft law. An excellent PR stunt, I wonder only why everyone, including journalists and politicians from today’s opposition, has fallen for it no one has taken the trouble to check out what the content of the file was?

And just recently PO came up with a counter-proposal of an even more generous pro-family agenda of giving out PLN 500 for every child, regardless of income per person in a household. Jaw drops open. If the biggest, in terms of number of deputies, party in the opposition, keeps on fooling about like this, in a year they will enjoy support below 10% in the polls. In the meantime Nowoczesna.pl is losing its vigour. In the long run Mr Petru and his partisans are unlikely to retain support above 20% and if they miraculously manage to win the election, they will lose power quickly. Affluent and resourceful people who want lean and efficient state, in other words liberal electorate, make up a tiny, though growing, percentage of voters.

After Standard and Poor's downgraded Poland’s rating, Fitch and Moody’s have announced reviews of Poland’s rating within 12 months and warned of possible downgrades for reasons far more substantive than those behind S&P’s move. As two other rating agencies point out, generous government spending calls into question fiscal balance and in the long-run is likely to decrease creditworthiness of Poland.

The government is getting to grips with the ailments of state-owned coal mines. During the campaign PiS promised not to close any mine and not to make redundant any miner. After the reality check strongly unionised miners, in order to help the government meet its promises, will have to accept salary cuts. Good luck!

Finally the Smolensk crash stands a chance to be scrutinised properly! The new team of experts, some of which even have notion about intricacies of aviation, but none of them has experience in investigating civil nor military passenger airplane crashes, is to carry out an unbiased investigation and definitely will not set any hypothesis in advance; exactly like Mr Macierewicz who signed a decree setting up the team and subsequently during the conference on which establishing the team was announced, adjudicated there had been an explosion which blew up the Tu-154 plane some fifteen or eighteen metres above ground level.

Three weeks into public media takeover, apart from a few spectacular lay-offs, the change I witness is less spectacular than many expected. The extent to which TVP is PiS biased is similar to how TVN is anti-PiS biased. Different views are presented and guests with different views are invited, but the bottom line message delicately instructs audience how to shape their opinion. Nevertheless, fortunately TVP has not stooped to the level of TV Republika, lousy propaganda which would drastically decrease popularity of TVP.

President’s death / Thaw in Warsaw

I remember my promise to review the film which appeared last Sunday in NGC. I remember and deliberately go back on it, by keeping my impressions brief and concise rather than going on about the documentary.

The film, not unsurprisingly, was a letdown for me. I expected a rather one-sided picture of the disaster, based merely on the official reports, but the outcome was more distorted than I had expected. To make it clear, I am not in favour of conspiracy theories, I accept findings of the Polish parliamentary commission which had investigated causes of the crash and realise film-makers, as in every case, based their coverage only on official reports (there were two in the case), but the bad taste remains.

The depiction of Smolensk crash should not be described as ‘biased’, the better word is ‘selective’ and, at some points, ‘distorted’. In fact, as nobody survived the impact, there is no chance to accurately present what was going on aboard before the crash, black boxes reveal only what was said in the cockpit and tell nothing about other circumstances, including mindset of the crew.

The message from the film is quite clear – Polish pilots’ errors in conjunction with bad weather and indirect pressure on them were the major cause of the crash. I believe these indeed were most likely reasons why the plane shattered before runway, but in fact circumstances were much more complex and going beyond what happened on the hapless day and analysis of other factors should not be confined to mentioning incident from August 2008 when the lead pilot was the second pilot on the plane whose lead pilot refused to touch down in Tbilisi and was expelled from the regiment for disobedience. I can only repeat questions asked by the media – why filmmakers did not bother to see photos of the airport in Smolensk, tragically run-down, lacking equipment? Why nobody mentioned flight controllers were calling somebody to take instructions what to do? Why nobody mentioned the Russian plane which nearly crashed the runway in thick fog shortly before the crash? Why co-operation between Polish and Russian investigators was depicted as exemplary? Why Russians were presented as careful and attentive if every child knows this is a departure from the truth?

Predictably, the film, watched by over 2 million people, triggered public outcry. Most commentators think the remembrance of the Smolensk crash will be based on this film only. I doubt its influence is so huge and I doubt it can convince anyone who showed at least little interest in the accident to change their mind about the backdrop of the disaster. I have seen it and could describe it as ‘factual, yet inexcusably selective’. Now I am looking forward to seeing another film, shot by a Polish PiS-backing journalist, Anita Gargas. I will not make me change my mind, but it never hurts to see what the other side claims and, if possible, pick nits in their reasoning.

Having written all this, I discern how I have evolved over the last four years. In the first two years of blogging wallowing in such mire gave me a lot of pleasure. Two years ago I could argue with commentators on Toyah’s blog and stir up atmosphere there just for intellectual pleasure. Today I would not raise a finger to be get into discussion with them which often ended up with me being offended. For some time now, my interest in politics has been dwindling. Currently the headline-hitting issue are civil partnerships and rights of gays, lesbians and transsexual people. I must say as this does not affect me, I care little about this. I used to dream of ideal political, economic and social order. With time I turned into a typical lemming, focused on his own well-being. I care more about my work and personal life, while other issues recede in the background. My attention is centred on small stuff I have influence on and probably if no breakthrough which could have a serious impact on my daily life takes place, this is not going to change.

Turning to small things… Proper winter has given way to thaw and I decided to make use of warmer weather and picked up a habit of everyday walks from the underground to my office (distance of over three kilometres). Most people detest weather like this – not frosty, but chilly, gloomy, grey, miserable, while it lifts my spirit when it ensues after a frosty and snowy spell. 

To the right – Wednesday, dim morning. I walk westwards ul. Pańska. The building in the background is one of many on Osiedle Za Żelazną Bramą (literally: Behind the Iron Gate Estate), a cult and prestigious dwelling 30 years ago. Today – a home to ordinary people, immigrants from Far East and thousands of cockroaches, and an excellent example of economical housing concept put into practice – a 4-room flat here has an area of less than 50 square metres. Asking prices per sqm usually are between 8,000 and 9,000 and they reflect excellent location and numerous drawbacks of these flats. I would not move there.

To the right – snows have not melted yet, or water has frozen up overnight. Pedestrians have trampled a narrow path, there are lots of puddles and still it is very slippery so watch out! Despite some nuisances the stroll is still enjoyable.

To the right – an essence of Wola. Once a typically industrial district, for the past years it has been morphing into a modern, post-industrial area, with ramshackle factory buildings being torn down and giving way to new office and residential buildings springing up. My company’s office was one the first such developments, completed in 1998. These days the pace of construction around is impressive, seeing how quickly new office buildings are erected you would not dare to claim existence of economic crisis. And here, on ul. Łucka, some time will have to pass before these derelict buildings are demolished. Squalor, dirt and misery is what fills me when I saunter there. The inscription in the foreground without subtleties informs you Poland’s leading political party has reached the bottom. Will it bottom out?

On the other side of ul. Towarowa, just next to IPN head office, you can find this building, the closest to my office stronghold of the bygone times. I have never visited ‘Bargain Consignment’, but my ex-boss recently encouraged to venture for a lunch to the bar. Once I got in there, I immediately caught the climate of cheap bar from PRL times. When it gets warmer, I will have to go there with a camera and immortalise the interior. In the menu you can find typical Polish home-likemeals at inexpensive prices. The key drawback is the length of a wait for being served – not a recommendable venue for hurrying office workers then…

Humility is a virtue

Mayday’s episode on Smolensk Air Crash is due to have its world premiere today at 9 p.m. in National Geographic Channel’s Polish channel. Poles will be the first audience to see the purportedly unbiased coverage of the tragic flight and reasons behind the disaster.

The film has been hailed as prejudiced many months ago by PiS-backing Polish media, as its script is based solely on findings of two official reports on the crash, one drawn up by Russian MAK, the other prepared by the Polish parliamentary commission, run by Jerzy Miller (the series’ makers as a matter of principle rely on official reports rather than on conspiracy theories). Producers of the ‘one-sided’ film, who refused to incorporate possible causes such as blast, terrorist attack, were accused of being paid by the Russians to distort the real course of events to the audience in the world. The broader discussion on the controversial documentary is going to spark off after the broadcast (although many journalists have already seen the document during a dedicated show) and I will post my review of it next weekend (today I will not make it, over the busy week it will be impossible as well).

In the meantime I am taking the opportunity to invoke another report, authored by Japanese parliamentary panel investigating causes and aftermaths of Fukushima power plant disaster. If you recall the tragic events from March 2011, you bring to your mind pictures of cruel powers of nature which destroyed the plant. You blame the earthquake and the tsunami, while authors of the report claim this was a “man-made disaster”. If the read the BBC’s summary of the report’s findings, the picture which emerges is a sharp condemnation of Japanese culture, the nation’s shortcomings and stance of people responsible of overseeing maintenance of the plant and handling mitigating effect of the disaster. Actually the nation is pulled into pieces for its “culture of deference and reluctance to question authority”. Once negligence was covered up at the top, nobody at the bottom felt entitled to bring it to the light. The report was a bitter pill to swallow for the Japanese. They had the courage to eat the humble pie…

Same could be said about the Smolensk crash, this also was a typical man-made disaster. Responsibility for it is collective and many Polish national shortcomings, brought together, contributed to the fatal accident. The list can be long: overwhelming disorganisation in prime minister’s and late president’s offices, commonly tolerated laxity in following procedures, acting on reprehensible faith that “we’ll somehow make it” (jakoś to będzie, uda się), determination to carry on, despite dangerous conditions, cutting corners (bylejakość), bravura, focus on end heedless of safety procedures. Several irregularities were found in the disbanded 36th regiment of Polish military aviation (inadequate training resulting e.g. in reading the wrong altitude meter), in prime minister’s office (responsibility for organising such visits rests with them). Media, for sake of customary refraining from speaking badly about the departed, seldom mention total chaos in the president Kaczyński’s office, but this was also the case. Same can be said about Russian airport in Smolensk, run-down, lacking fixed equipment necessary to service takeoffs and touchdowns (such was moved there for prime minister’s Tusk visit 3 days earlier and taken away immediately), but I ultimately would blame the Polish organisers who did not bother to choose a safer, properly equipped airport.

I am looking forward to seeing the film. Little in its content is likely to surprise me – newspapers in Poland have written long reviews and summaries of it. I am more curious of social potential outcry regarding the account of events depicted in the film. The documentary is not going to change anything. Those who believe this was an assassination contrived by enemies of the most outstanding statesman in the history of Poland will not be convinced this was a tragic aftermath of multitude of human errors, those who put credence into official parliamentary report, will find in it nothing new; nevertheless it is worth spending two hours in front of the TV screen.

Kabaty crash site

Probably no other country in the EU can boast about such long weekend falling on such beautiful season of year, as Poland, which has bank holidays on 1 May and 3 May. This year arrangement of days was extremely favourable – with days off work falling on Tuesday and Thursday, half of the country were on holiday and the rest ticking over. Given the limited number of paid holiday, I decided to stay ‘on duty’ at work over the whole week. This strategy has several upsides – little is going on in the office, one can knock on later, knock off earlier and go out for a lunch for an hour, traffic on the roads is sparse. The only downside is that public service vehicles run according to weekend timetable and if someone saves on fuel, getting to work partly by public transport is longer than door-to-door trip by car.

This year not only the calendar was on Poles’ side, also the weather couldn’t be more conducive for leisure. An unusual for late April / early May heat wave arrived to Poland on Friday before the long weekend and lasted whole seven days. For most of the weekend day-times were hitting +30C and sunshine was not disrupted by a single raindrop. In early February, when temperatures were dropping below –20C, I promised myself not to grumble about the heat. Indeed, below minus twenty it was worse.

Looking around and judging by the picture painted by the media, it can be inferred that Poles are off for a care-free week-long barbecue, devouring warm sausages and sipping cold beer. Not a good form of pastime activity to be endorsed. Popular culture promotes unhealthy lifestyle rather when physical exercise!

OK, I also ate some sausages, drank a few beers, but haven’t succumbed to the notion that life’s easy. Even at the time when almost everyone’s laid-back, pushes aside mundane worries and laps up beauty of the spring, more serious issues must not disappear from the foreground. It’s not about seeking troubles intently, it’s about discerning complexity of the world and remembering about its sadder side.

On Thursday I finally celebrated cycling shake-down day in season 2012. Head down, it kicked off late, the first opportunity was missed on 17 March and then either weather or some timesucks were keeping my off my bike. For starters, I ventured where I had planned to go since my trip to Las Kabacki two months earlier. And the time for the trip could only be slightly better.

Next Wednesday Poles will be commemorating the 25th anniversary of the most tragic airplane disaster in the history of Polish aviation. Many of would argue the Smolensk crash was the most terrible, as many of the fatalities were eminent statesmen, however in terms of death toll the Kabaty plane crash was almost two times more tragic (183 vs. 96).

Shame on me, I have to admit this was my first visit to the place where Il-62 hit the ground. This time before setting off I checked on the map how to get there and didn’t roam in vain in search of the monument as I did in March.

Getting there is a piece of cake. Inhabitants of southern part of Zielony Ursynów and adjacent villages are in a privileged position. You just need to turn into ul. Jagielska from ul. Puławska and walk / cycle / drive (the last should be deleted, as inappropriate) some two kilometres east to find a green gate closing off a path to the forest (to the right – photo taken while riding, hence blurred). Cycle or walk two hundred metres into the wood and soon you reach the destination.

If you’re heading from proper Ursynów, you’re still in the luck – your trail will be longer, but you ma enjoy a pleasurable walk / ride through the forest (especially delightful on a sweltering day, when trees give shelter from the heat) and signage should lead you to the place.

The crash site is commemorated by a small, inconspicuous clearing (here for a moment unattended). The place is arranged to play host to few visitors and brings out a conductive atmosphere to contemplate the fragility of human life. I have to say all tourist stopping over there behaved appositely.

Two artefacts on the site are a stone plaque, with names of all fatalities inscribed on it and a cross. Photographs of both objects prove my photographing skills are inadequate – I didn’t manage to snap up-to-the-mark shots on a sunny day in a shaded place. With hindsight a good incentive to tweak with my compact Canon’s settings or a reason to upgrade. The first name on a plaque is captain Zygmunt Pawlaczyk who piloted the ill-fated plane. There is a street named after him in a nearby Ursynów. Many people owe him they are alive, as captain Pawlaczyk, having realised he wouldn’t have a chance to land the plane in Okęcie airport, decided to drop the plane into an uninhabited area, without risking lives of more innocent people.

The cross has been put up by members of a local parish in Pyry. A small Jesus crucified on it, a small wreath laid in front of. In a few days there will be lots of flowers and candles all over the place and then someone will tidy it up and only silence and rare visitors will haunt the place.

A notice attached to a tree informs two masses commemorating the victims will be administered on Wednesday. I’m looking forward to seeing archival TV coverages of the disaster. Few can be found on youtube although TV reporters have covered the story quite informatively. Censorship apparatus in late 1980s eased off and news of the crash appeared in the media immediately. Truth wasn’t said in the context of co-operation with Soviet engineers, probably accountable for the glitch which led to a engine breakage, who wriggle out of helping Poles investigate true causes of the engine breakage and denied their responsibility for the faulty part.

I’ll surely be visiting the place at least once a year, and on one of 10th days of April in the coming years I’ll take a trip to Smolensk. Regardless of political views, each Pole who can afford to travel there (provided Russian visa is obtainable) should to pay homage to the ones whose lives were shattered in the Smolensk muds…

Daleko od Wawelu - book review

Spent the last two days of the shorter working week (i.e. Wednesday and Thursday) on a sick leave. I had been fighting the illness since late October, but surrounded all the time either by sneezing and coughing parents at home or by sneezing and coughing colleagues at work, I finally gave up and came down with some sort of cold. Unfortunately for my employer, I was not the only one to be absent at work at this time, but if they wanted an open plan, they should have taken into account that they would create excellent conditions for germs to fly around. And so they did…

Actually feeling a bit off-colour and staying in bed for three days has even done me good. The first day, when I had a fever did not actually bring the coveted chill-out, but then I finally found time to read books and watch films I had planned to read or watch since months.

One of them was the book written by Michał Majewski and Paweł Reszka - Daleko od Wawelu (“Far from Wawel”, where Poland’s late president Lech Kaczyński was buried). I first heard of the book in October 2010, just upon its publishing, as it was mentioned in “Polityka” as a good account of Lech Kaczyński’s term in office. As the book was reviewed mostly in liberal media, I thought it would focus on presenting the demerits of late president, yet, to my surprise, the picture of the Lech Kaczyński is anything, but one-sided.

As the authors declare, the book, compiled over many months was set to be given some finishing touches in April 2010. Before final editing, authors were appointed to talk it over with Mr Kaczyński himself, yet the final meeting was postponed until mid-April 2010 in the run-up to visit in Smolensk. Needless to say, it has never been held. Shock brought about by the Smolensk disaster put the publishing plans on hold, but a few months later authors decided to make a few technical amendments (e.g. putting past tense instead of present, for “technical” reasons) and print in the book in its pre-Smolensk shape and under a different title.

Mr Majewski and Reszka have aptly drawn a picture of Lech Kaczynski as an ordinary man, as many of us having feet of clay. They carried out several interviews with people who knew the late president well and put their accounts together. The profile of the late head of state is delineated in an unbiased way, giving credit when it was due, and pointing at weaknesses, when necessary. The picture of Lech Kaczynski which emerges from the book shows a man full of contradictions, driven most by emotions. As someone claimed, you could tell about Mr Kaczynski that he was a kind-hearted, affable interlocutor, great speaker who could deliver a speech ad hoc, meet people in a provincial town and talk to them spontaneously, or you could call him hot-tempered, dogged, disorganised, suspicious or indecisive and in both cases you would not depart from the truth. Lech Kaczynski changed moods very quickly, shouted at people and fired them, just to forget about such brawls after two days…

The biggest problem of Mr Kaczynski was, from what I inferred from the book, the fact he was extremely pliable. It is commonly known that he was steered by his brother, who had laid out their plans in politics, and wife, who toned him down, yet this was not the real case. The late president was surrounded by droves of people working in his office who competed with one another at work and used their positions to pursue their own goals. Mr Kaczynski apparently could not tell a sincere man from a mercenary bastard and often trusted too much those who did not deserve it.

Mr Kaczynski seems to appear as a victim of bad people. Not just of his brother, who made him a meaningful figure in politics or the lousy entourage from his office. As everyone realises, late president fell victim of black PR campaigns run by PO politicians masterfully since their victory in 2007 parliamentary election. The purport of PO’s depiction of the president was to present him as a stumbling block that prevents the country from moving forward and an excuse for government’s idleness. The book also sheds some light on the dark side of PO and its leader, Donald Tusk, who have rarely held back from punching below the belt. Recently, the author published a new book, titled Daleko od miłości (“Far from love”), being a similar profile of prime minister Donald Tusk. As soon as I get hold of it and read it from cover to cover, you can expect a review here.

Mr Lech Kaczynski was derided not only in Poland. Foreign diplomats took the trouble to work him out and find his soft spots. In a psychological profile they noticed he felt badly in official situations and was ill at ease during less official meeting owing to his lack of command of foreign languages. They did not hesitate to make use of that knowledge to pound at him. No wonder his ability to pursue foreign policy in a way many Poles wanted (similar to his predecessor, Mr Kwaśniewski) was largely limited.

I was deeply appalled by the overwhelming disorganisation of Mr Kaczynski’s office (kancelaria) workings. The late president could not enforce discipline, the office was run by competing cliques, decisions, due to president’s inherent indecisiveness were taken at hour eleventh, meetings were arranged much too late. Many decisions were taken on the spur of the moment and inspired by bouts of emotions. The book provides a coverage of incident of the ‘Georgian flight’, when the pilot refused to touch down in Tbilisi, slightly different than presented in Gazeta Wyborcza and gives good insight into the president foray into provincial Georgia in November 2008 when someone could have tried to shoot the president. This case, when plans were rapidly changed only due to president Saakashvili’s whim and without providing proper security to the head of state sheds light not only on bad organisation of president’s administration but also is a big question mark for alleged big friendship between the two presidents.

After reading the book, Lech Kaczynski is in my mind more like a tragic character than a mediocre president. I still claim he did not deserve to be buried in Wawel, but the time will not be turned back. The late president was actually a good man, but had no makings for a president. He did not feel comfortable holding the office and it probably would have been better if he had stayed on as professor, instead of stepping back into politics.

Early fall, there's a cloud on the New York skyline

9/11 is one of few events in the history I remember well. Once, in the first anniversary of Smolensk disaster, I brought back memories of that day. Now there is no point in repeating them, there is no use in writing how that terrorist attack changed the world, dwelling on how unbelievable it was would sound like a cliche. As an economist I could address the topic by weighing up pros and cons of suspending trading on Wall Street by the end of the fateful week or going on about the impact of loose monetary policy pursued by Fed to buoy up US economy after 9/11 on formation of US housing bubble.

The economic aspects of 9/11 are apparently compelling, but before I got really interested in economics I had had a period in my life which had had its climax in Janaury 2008 (winter exam period) when I went through a silly fascination with 9/11 conspiracy theories. Over that one month not only did I underperform on my exams which cost me a lower scholarship in the subsequent semester, but I also downloaded several films (Loose change, The greatest lie ever sold, In the plane site, The secret evil of September the 11th, Zeitgeist) about 9/11 alleged conspiracies and watched them. There was a time when I deeply believed in those theories, with time I grew out of them. My sound mind tells me they are hogwash, but I do not have sufficient information and knowledge to verify all facts and allegations... Conspiracy theorists make use of the fact people are unable to substantiate their claims and this lets conspiracy theories thrive...

So when everyone else looks back on shock brought about by the events we witnessed exactly 10 years ago, or commemorates the victims of the attacks, let's look at some stuff everyone passes over today, although it is said one-third of U.S. citizens do not believe in official account of 9/11 attacks...

1. The attack was plotted by U.S government to crack down on middle-east regimes, instill fear in people and cut down on civil liberties...

2. Alternatively, the U.S. administration knew about the plans of attack but did nothing to prevent them, as it was a good pretext for neo-conservative administration to pursue their plans set out in paragraph 1...

3. There was a large number of transactions in shares of airlines and insurance companies before 9/11, with the most recognised trading in put options on shares of United Airlines executed the day before the attacks...

4. The twin towers did not collapse on their own, but were demolished with use of bombs planted inside them...

5. Moreover, WTC 7 was "pulled (down)" in the same way - the building did not collapse naturally...

6. Pentagon building was a hit by missile...

7. Something was attached to planes which hit WTC towers, alternatively those were no passenger planes...

And many, many other... (the list does not enumarate several reported UFO sightings caught on tape)

I dare to claim 9/11 was the same for the United States as Smolensk disaster for Poland. Both tragedies were very traumatic for both nations, both left a mark in political arenas. Despite many dissimilarities, such as number of fatalities and who they were for the countries, causes and circumstances or the events, they have something in common - both have not been and stand no chance to be explained in 100%. In both cases investigations following the tragedies were said to be intransparent. Whenever some obfuscation emerges, there is room for doubt, looking out for inconsistencies. Actually both 9/11 and Smolensk were so hard to believe that it is in a way natural that there are people who will keep scratching beneath the surface to find out what "the real causes" were. Ten years after 9/11 many people believe it was an inside job, and I am sure in ten years there will be people in Poland saying Tusk and Putin contrived it, the plane landed and was shuttered by a bomb, Russian agents killed those passengers who had survived the impact, the birch could not break off the left wing or the fog in Smolensk was artificial... It can't be helped...

The fateful day

Tuesday, 11 September 2001. Afternoon was warm and sunny. I was then at the beginning of my second year in middle school. Classes finished at 14:25 and some 10 minutes later I was home. My father was on holiday and watched the newly launched first Polish news channel - TVN24. A few minutes past 3 p.m. TV showed a burning WTC tower, then it broadcast live the moment another plane hit the other tower. We thought this was a quite interesting catastrophic film, but couldn't make out why it was broadcast by TVN24.

Sometimes the truth is stranger than fiction...

--------------------------------------------

3,133 days later...

My head felt heavy for the third day in row. I somehow felt tired after Easter break filled with job-looking-related tasks. Maybe I had slept for too long, maybe too short. I could just mope around the house, do the toiletry, clean my room. I turned the computer on, left a comment on another blog, then turned the computer off.

My mother and I talked for a while about the work/school - life balance. I think the conclusion wasn't reached, because I set about filling in another job application, that time for an internship in a treasury department at the state-controlled bank. I asked myself whether I really wanted to work there. On second thoughts I decided to give it a try. OK, name, surname, address, history of education.

My radioclock was on, tuned to RMF FM. At 09:26 the boring routine of entering personal data was interrupted by a terse news item that a Polish plane had had problems approchaing the runway in Smolensk. I stopped for a while, reluctant to carry on. "President would be walking on crutches", I thought.

There are things that go far beyond comprehension. Planes crash rarely, planes carrying important politicians don't crash in civilised countries. It can happen to a dictator reigning an African country. Some people can be injured, nobody surely died. Such a huge tragedy seemed unbelievable.

TV was on. The chaos was indeed hard to describe. As it now turns out, first, unofficial news about the disaster were in newsrooms just after 9:00, everyone was waiting to confirm it... TV stations were showing either news programmes informing about the tragedy or broadcast commemoration ceremonies in Katyn.

The first person I called was my close friend who repeatedly wished death on president Kaczynski. I felt odly curious to see his reaction. His flatmate picked up the phone, I asked if I could talk to my friend. I asked if he already knew, he said he didn't. When I told the president had died I left him speechless for a few seconds. Then he asked if I meant Lech Kaczynski and quickly added this was not a heart attack, but a big disaster in which tens of other people died. He was devastated...

The truth began so sink in and loom much more shocking as the list of passengers was unveiled.

Two questions were in my mind on that day: if the Polish state's continuity procedures would work properly and who the hell had allowed to put so many state officials on board of one plane...

Around quarter to eleven I turned another TV on. A woman in her 50's was shouting: Ruskie na pewno maczały w tym palce, to u nich się stało...

We watched the history in the making...

A year has gone by. Lives have gone on. People looked for jobs and some found them, films were shot, suburbs were flooded, presidential election was held, computers crashed, people rowed over politics and contemplated the eternal, crosses were put up and removed, money was lent to gamblers, but discussions on the causes of the Smolensk disaster never ceased, questions remain unanswered, Poles remain divided, MA theses were written, carrers started, natural disasters hit innocent people out of the blue, financial markets remained ruthless, pension system in Poland was reformed. Business as usual...

Rememberance should be fostered, but... business as usual...?

The day before

'We're going to Praktiker in Janki to buy the wall tiles to kitchen, are you going with us'? My mother shouted from the ground floor to let me know my parents have finally decided to do something to bring the refurbrishment of our kitchen to an end. I replied I would. As far as I'm concerned it was around quarter past three in the afternoon.

The weather was typical for a gloomy, dejecing spring day. Temperature was somewhat around +10C, sky was overcast. I sat on the back seat. Whenever we all travel by car and my father drives don't sit next to him, because my mother refuses to fasten the belt. I don't know why she embraces the old belief that fastening safety belts on a back seat is unnecessary, but she does it. To avoid something bad I tell her to sit on the passenger seat. Just in case.

At 15:38 my mobile phone rang. It took me too long to take it out of my pocket and I didn't manage to answer it. I called the number it had displayed back, but no one picked up the phone. I was livid. Some two weeks earlier I began sending out my job applications for summer internships and I was totally aware recruiters from some companies call applicants only once. This was a potentially accidentally wasted chance; it proved later someone had misdialled the number. Of course I couldn't know at that time my decision to go in for Grasz o Staż contest would prove fortituous.

At 16:00 we listened to the news in the Polish Radio Programme 1. Two news items to hit the headlines in the afternoon were:
1. huge, one of the biggest in the history of Polish banking, breakdown of PKO BP computing systems, as a results of which millions of the bank's clients couldn't use their e-banking accounts nor take out money from cash machines,
2. currency intervention carried out unexpectedly around midday by the National Bank of Poland, aimed at weakening zloty, as in the central bank's view, apprecation of Polish currency could hamper economic recovery in Poland.
The almost unprecedented move made by the central bank (that was the only intervention on the currency market in the first decade of 21st century) was backed by the ministry of finance and the Monetary Policy Council. Speculators who had bet on Polish currency strenghtening had to cover their positions with losses. The last year's EUR/PLN quotations proved the central bank's success in deterring speculators. Funnily enough, many younger dealers in banks' dealing rooms didn't know what had been going on, as they had seen zloty falling one per cent against Euro within a second ...

We had actually no problems choosing the tiles. My father and I loaded them onto a trolley and pushed towards the till. On our way back I noticed fog began to linger. Visibility was lower and lower. Somewhere between Lesznowola and Nowa Wola, where a junction on S7 dual carriageway is to be bulit in a few years, I regretted not taking a camera. I couldn't snap the ultimate beauty of spring gloom. As I recall the day I still have it in mind and this was an ultimate beauty, but it carried something worrisome. I had an inkling of something really dreadful, I felt it deep under my skin. I had this feeling a few times in my life and one of my friends aptly described it as "if you were to head for the Satan's Grand Ball (from The Master and Margarita)" and since then I've experieced it once, on 18 March 2011. For no apparent reason it felt really pleasant...

In the evening we watched Władysław Stasiak giving an interview in TVN. He spoke something about the importance of president's next day's visit to Katyn. Then we turned over to another channel...

Incongruity - a short story

Once there way a boy. He lived with his parents and two years older sister in a new flat to which the family had moved a few month earlier. The middle school the boy attended has topped the rankings for five years in a row, so it was decided that the boy would still attend it. The distance between the new flat and the school (five kilometres) necessitated every day commutes. However, they were not a nuisance, as the journey by bus lasted mere eight minutes, buses in the morning ran every five minutes and the bus stop was a stone's throw from the block where the family lived.

One winter morning when the temperature was hovering around zero, the boy and his sister were about to leave for school. The sister began going out with her first boyfriend just a few weeks ago and since then has much more cared about her appearance. Her boyfriend had promised to take her out after classes and she wanted to look really splendid. She occupied the only bathroom for over a quarter putting on make-up on her face. The boy did not want to come late to school, so he knocked at the bathroom door and asked his sister if she could let him in, because he wanted to a morning toiletry and go away. She was very busy tweaking with her eyelashes so she told her brother to get lost and wait his turn. After a few minutes she left the bathroom, the boy did what he had to go, put on his winter coat, shoes and set off towards the bus stop.

He knew he still stood a chance of catching the 7:43 service, so he marched towards the stop very briskly. When he was just twenty metres away, he saw his bus pulling up. He ran to the bus stop at full pelt to get into the vehicle. Unfortunately, the driver did not show sympathy for the hurrying boy and shut the door just before his face. The boy had to choice but to wait for the next bus, due in five minutes. The wind was gusty that morning, so, understandably, he decided to wait in a bus shelter.

A nineteen-year-old spaced-out student was returning home from a post-exam-period party in his also nineteen-year-old BMW (abbr. Burak Ma Wózek - Bumpkin has a cart). As he was approaching the bus lay-by it seemed to him another driver cut in on him. To avoid rear-ending the car, which was still on the other lane, he swerved swiftly. The car went into a skid in the icy road. Its driver, scared stiff, instead of skimming on the brakes pushed the accelerator pedal. The car did around 100 kmph when it smashed into the bus shelter. The boy had to chance to survive. He died at the scene.

Who should be held culpable for the boy's death?
Answer 1: His fastidious sister who had to finish doing her make-up?
Answer 2: The fastidious bus driver, who closed the door?

Questions

For the last few days my attention has been gripped by the issue of Smolensk air crash. For months I had been of the opinion that the issue is not the most important problem and we should focus on things other than dwelling on the circumstances of the accident. But since 12 January when MAK unveiled its report, thoughts on the disaster have assault me almost all the time, from the first seconds after I wake up in the morning, till the last seconds before I fall asleep. Given that I have exam period (seven down, two to go) and dozens of other things to handle, recurring thoughts on the disaster begin to pose a serious threat to my sanity. For this reason I made the decision to withdraw from any political postings and comments on other blogs (including Posłuchaj, to do Ciebie). My resolution will come into force on 7 February, the day I return to work, and sooner or later will be broken, but not before I am sure reviving the tetchy affairs would not bring me into losing my mind. There are many other topics worth raising here, many other discussions and disputes to be held, the range of subject matters will shrink a bit, hopefully with the benefit for the readers.

I had several concepts of this post, one partly developed and given up was to dedicate it to my fellow blogger, Toyah, just like I did over half a year ago. Having changed my mind several I finally settled on hitting you with a list of questions (order is totally random, some of them overlap one another) that keep nagging me... I do not hold out much hopes that you know answer to most of them, but maybe taking it off my my chest will help me sleep restfully tonight...

1. Am I the only one who holds the view that politicians of PiS do not want to find out the truth about the disaster, but they have had their own "truth", i.e. the PO-led government and Russians are the only guilty of that crash and they pick out the facts that match their concept? (If you happen to spot any lies or misrepresentations in GW's article, do let me know about it and substantiate where they depart from the truth)

2. Do politicians of PiS realise what they do actually realise what they do actually mirrors Russian stance on the investigation results, stemming directly from Soviet mentality, in line with which "all our faults must be withheld and others' fault must be highlighted"?

3. Is it in the vested interest of our country to conceal our faults, irregularities and infractions of rules?

4. Does telling openly about errors made by our pilots during the flight translate into "sullying their honour" (giving to the public the information about level of alcohol in the blood of one the passengers was indeed out of place)?

5. Why passengers could enter the pilots' cabin, if such practices were forbidden?

6. Will the pilot of Jak-40 who landed there despite being ordered by air traffic controllers at 09:14:41 to do a go-around and fly off and will he be held accountable of putting lives of tens of people at risk?

7. Why deputies of PiS call pilots, who attempted to touch down the plane, despite being told at 09:55:37 the landing was impossible due to bad weather conditions, heroes?

8. Why were pilots of Tu-154 who in August 2008 had followed all safety procedures and did their utmost duty, i.e. ensured the safety of their passengers were called "cowards"?

9. Why Mr Karski did not have the courage to apologise for his misdeed and did not concede he had been wrong?

10. How the Georgian incident and, above all, the subsequent litigation could affect decisions taken by pilots during the fateful flight?

11. Why politicians (and journalists, both groups recently boast about in-depth knowledge in air accidents), not aviation experts, adjudicate on the causes of the crash? Do we follow example of Russia, where such inquests are politicised?

12.Will Polish independent aviation experts, who have torn a strip off Polish crew, become enemies of PiS, or have they already become, if M(r)s Kempa suggested special services should handle them? (a foretaste of what dissenters may face in IV RP)

13. Is it true captain Protasiuk declined to take off from Okęcie, because he had not received a weather forecast for Smolensk or because the weather report he had received told landing was impossible and why somebody convinced or ordered him to take off?

14. Why did Poles who organised the visits insisted on landing in Smolensk, if they knew the airport there was dilipidated and had been closed in October 2009. why did not they choose another airport and did not provide other means of transport to get to Katyn?

15. Why Russians did not try harder to dissuade Polish pilots from landing or why did they not close the airport?

16. Why did Russian air traffic controllers did not tell Polish pilots they had problems with their tawdry equipment?

17. Why was the first speech delivered by the prime minister Tusk on 19 January so aggressive?

18. Why politicians of PiS tried to hoot down deputies of PO when they were asking questions?

19. Why deputy speaker of the lower house, Mr Niesiołowski acted the fool (or a jack-in-office) during the debate?

20. Why Mr Macierewicz told, in response to the inqiury about his visit to the United States he had met the most important congressman, Peter King, who he had wanted to meet, if it did not happen?

21. Why Mr Macierewicz called the United States "our biggest ally", if they do not give a shit about Poland and their president paid his respects to Lech Kaczynski by playing golf during his funeral?

22. On what legal basis Mrs Fotyga and Mr Macierewicz were authorised to represent Poland in the USA on what legal basis could anyone help them establish an international committee to investigate the causes of Smolensk air crash?

23. On the basis of what legal document could Poland not hand over the inquiry to Russians and was that document really applicable in that situation?

24. Do PiS and their apologists try intently to reshape the image of the late president and make Poles believe he was an outstanding statesman, when in fact, despite being a noble and honest man, he simply did not have making of a head of state and his presidency was generally clumsy and mediocre?

25. Are PiS and their followers trying to paint the picture of downfall of Poland, a falling apart country, run by servants of Russians, traitors, Heaven knows who else, just to justify radical steps they will take if they win the election in October 2011 and set out to crack down on their enemies?

And finally, the most important question.
If Mr Protasiuk had refused to take off and the plane had not taken off with any other pilots in the cockpit, or if pilots had made the decision to land somewhere else or even return to Warsaw without trying to touch down, or if Russian authorities had closed the airport in Smolensk, how would Lech Kaczyński and politicians of PiS have reacted?

There is just one question I can answer. Jarosław Kaczyński blames the Polish government because visits of his brother and Mr Tusk were separated. Donald Tusk could not bring Lech Kaczyński along on 7 April to Katyn because the late president did not receive an official invitation from Russians, which is required by diplomatic protocol (Jarosław Kaczyński and his followers are proud to be ignorant of the rules it sets out). Donald Tusk did not fly to Katyn on 10 April because he was not invited by president Lech Kaczynski. Finally, if president and prime minister had been on board of the same plane, it would have been an appalling violation of safety procedures. And after all we all know that Russians are coarse and simply did not wish to see the man who had openly displayed his hostility towards Russia. And their decision was quite probably provoked by late president's brother...

To break the language barrier I hereby waive the rule of blogging which tells to reply to a post in a language in which it is written. If you want to have your say and do not feel up to the task in English, do it in Polish, I will appreciate it anyway.