A demographic disaster?

With the recently released birth statistics in Poland we might easily admit the problem with ageing and declining population in my homeland is getting horrific.

As the graph with preliminary figures for 2023 shows, albeit the number of deaths is not rising (COVID-19 accelerated many deceases), the number of births is plummeting. Had it not been for migrants (predominantly Ukrainians), merely 252,000 infants would have been born last year. Actually the 252,000 thousand is the rough number of children born with the Polish citizenship.

The major reason for the number of births getting lower is the echo of the previous demographic wave, with a high of new births of 724,000 in 1983, but then decreasing gradually to around 350,000 in 2003. Since then for over a decade the number of births was getting higher, with some boost in 2017 put down to 500+ child allowance in place.

Within 6 years the number of birth, upon
adjustment for inflow of Ukrainians has gone down by more than 35%. Over that time fertility rate of women fell from nearly 1.5 to around 1.3, compared to 2.0 around 1990. Needless to say, if a country’s population is not about to dwindle, the rate should be slightly above 2.0 in mid-term.

Most (but not all) European countries are facing the same problem, yet in the Western Europe fertile migrants tend to make up for the shortfall of domestic births. The key reasons cited for the trend by both experts and home-grown specialists are:
1) a cultural and lifestyle shift in which raising a family is not the only option, but one of many, with decreasing social pressure for having children,
2) priority of career pursuit / convenience for many people (not only women),
3) shortage of mature male partners to women who would become responsible fathers participants in upbringing and household works,
4) housing problems, especially high property purchase and rental prices, compounded by lack of non-commercial accommodation alternatives,
5) financial insecurity,
6) lack of systemic support for parents wishing to combine professional duties with taking care of children.

Another problem, less often mentioned is that many couple confine themselves to one child only. Back at school, I was one of very, very few only children, with everyone around having siblings. With hindsight I see having a sister or a brother teaches empathy, sharing and social skills. A child which is not an only child quickly realises they are not a hub of the universe, but sadly, several “only childs” these days are brought up in such way. I am holding back from assessing parents choosing a 2+1 model (the motivations are the same as for declining overall fertility), but I see several drawbacks of such option.

To show the declining number of children per woman is not necessarily an option, let’s look at the example of Czech Republic, not a catholic nation, with wide access to abortion in early pregnancy. Surprising to the pro-life wackos, they do not have such problem as Poland. Reasons why our southern neighbours have done so well have been listed by Łukasz Pietrzak on his X profile:
1) the highest number of in-vitro inseminations per citizen in the EU,
2) low unemployment and higher job security,
3) a well-developed network of public nursery schools (low-cost daily care for children aged 3 – 6),
4) a young-parent allowance is paid to each parent until a child turns 4 (helps combine professional duties and parenthood),
5) 100% salary equivalent is paid during a maternity leave,
6) generous tax allowance for parents,
7) flexible labour market schemes for young parents, including part-time jobs and home office.
Some of the above are already in place in Poland, on others the Polish new government needs to work on. Given the overall cultural context of many youngsters ruling out parenthood altogether, it will partly go in vain, but if we look at the upsides, it will benefit the planet.

Sadder but wiser

The more you do, the more mistakes you are likely to make. Only those who sit on their hands are not infallible. Even wicked corporations hold such approach dear! The more we experience, the more nasty situations life puts us through, the opportunities to learn we receive. Lucky those who do not need to draw conclusions from their own missteps and wise those who intently observe fellow people’s slip-ups, analyse them and take precautions not to repeat them.

It all commences in childhood. I remember well when my mother warned me not to put a finger into a burning flame on a gas stove. Obviously, I refused to listen to her and burnt my finger. Lesson learnt – keep fingers away from flames. Alternatively, the lesson learnt could be to listen what you parents say. With hindsight, coming back to choices made by me when I was a teenager or a student, I recognise my parents were usually right (I have never admitted it to them, as such statement would have all appearances of asking for continual advice) and often ask myself what they would advise me in a specific situation, how would they react if I told them about my crazy idea or what they would rebuke me over. By the way, I recall now a training delivered by a coach who claimed parents in Poland do not support their children ingenious ideas, but do their utmost to discourage their offspring from pursuing their ambitions, especially the dicey ones.

I also wonder what can prompt humans to give up on silly activities that might severely harm them? Would throwing up all contents of one’s bowels prompt a binge drinker to become more restraint with alcohol, or would they need to commit a crime or lose a job to get the eye-opener? Would causing an accident persuade a fan of fast driving to stick to speed limits? Or would a severe fine be helpful enough? What else, except for unwanted pregnancy or contracting an illness, would convince a person who indulges in occasional sex to hold their horses? How heavy shortage of money would urge a reckless shopper to think twice before spending money on stuff they don’t need?

I strive to look at other people’s and mine mistakes. Watching humans stumble but not necessarily fall fills me with confidence that cool-headed approach to life pays off. Holding back before making hasty decisions, minding the consequences, putting oneself in someone else’s shoes and trying to guess their perception of a situation, these all make up precious guidance how to become wiser and avoiding the side effect of being sadder.

Lastly, I ponder upon circumstances which can throw an individual off their sanity. The one which instantly is brought to mind is falling in love, a state compared to mild intoxication, when sound judgement is said to be turned off or at best impaired. But symptoms of falling in love and impact on a daily life or an infatuated person changes with time. A teenager in love behaves different than a human in their mid-thirties. And I put it down to benefit of learning from mistakes made by many people.

Expect a break from blogging the next weekend. I am heading west for a short, or maybe longer road trip. This will be not just a sightseeing trip, but also an opportunity to be on my own (oddly enough, this is now something I am longing for) and to think things over, to return happier, but wiser.

The handicapped generation

Ran across the link to this kind of outdated article on my friend’s wall on facebook. Read it twice and I am of the opinion this piece should be an obligatory read for most today’s parents who bring up their offspring to become… Why do they call the future adults zombie creatures?

It is not a secret that gap between people born in 1970s and 1980s is far bigger than the gap between the latter and born in 1990s. I can say nothing about differences between people born in 1990s and those born in 2000s since I lack sample to make such comparison. This abyss between people of nearly the same age is not just the effect of growing up in different economic and technological environment, but is an element of a deeper social change. In big cities childhood in late PRL or in years of nascent capitalism differed much from today’s pattern of childhood, moreover communication was not facilitated by the Internet and mobile devices; yet these differences make up just the tip of the iceberg.

How sensitive children are is a clear consequence of how parents raise them. An average child is told on every step dangers loom all around. Imagine you are told not to stroke an animal since it may bite you or bacteria from its fur may jump into you… Imagine you are instructed to wear a helmet protecting your limbs, otherwise learning to ride a two-wheel bike you will get bruised… Imagine you are prevented from taking a mountain-hiking trip or a canoe trip, because for a few days you would live without electricity, sleep in a tent and wash yourself in cold water…

Parents’ attempts to assure comfort to their children and to save them from harm at any price at the end of the day do more harm than good. Childhood by definition ought to be the most carefree period in life. But childhood and youth are the period of learning and experiencing, also learning from one’s own mistakes which usually do not kill a child, but make them stronger and wiser. If children are to manage on their own in their early adulthood they need to be taught to take decisions and responsibility for them.

Today’s parents who do everything for and instead of their children not only fail to teach them taking decisions and responsibility, but also deprive their offspring of the carefree element of their early years. There is a built-in pressure to meet parents’ expectations instead of enjoying childhood the way a child wants. Yet a contemporary child would not want to enjoy it the way I did it over twenty years ago, since patterns of pastime activities have changed. Go to any housing estate and look out for children aged less than 10 running around or riding bikes nearly without parents’ care. Such was the reality in mid-1990s!

While today, parents want to spare their children as much strain as possible and bring them up to become frail adults, shying away from hardships or becoming so-called kidults. Pains, suffering, defeats, eating humble pie, etc. are the elements of brutal life. Children should rather be supported in coping with them, rather than shielded from them…

The article dwells on the appalling fitness of Polish children. I stick to my theory that today’s children’s life expectancy will be lower than today’s middle-aged people’s. The first and foremost reason is that children move too little, spending too much time staring at smartphone. The second cause is less straightforward, namely physical activity is, I argue, over-coordinated, not spontaneous. Parents sign up their offspring for horse-riding classes, swimming lessons, tennis lessons, etc. which in essence is commendable, yet takes away the element of spontaneity… I wonder how many parents signing their children up for various classes ask if their offspring really want to attend them and how many do it because of the peer pressure or to fulfil their own ambitions.

On top of this an average child of well-off educated parents gets what they want without even asking. Such behaviours among parents have been witnessed more than ten years ago, hence we already see young adults claiming they deserve to get something, but offering nothing or little in return. If children think they are exceptional and the world should treat them as a hub of the universe, the fault lies with their parents…

The advent of social media and the culture of sharing one’s life with others via them has changed motives which drive people’s activities. Author of the article incites his audience to ask a question whether youngsters do things for themselves of to impress other people. The quintessence of leading a happy life is doing things for one’s own pleasure. I see nothing wrong in sharing with other people things done for one’s own pleasure (and do it occasionally, may facebook fellows know I’m having fun), yet if impressing others becomes a primary motivation for choosing what to do in free time, a person falling victim to such way of thinking will sooner or later get hurt.

Such reasoning leads to dangerous conclusion, namely the measure of how much a youngster is worth is how much appreciation they receive. Number of likes under a person’s post on facebook becomes a benchmark of who’s more trendy, cool or… valuable…

The author also points up helplessness of youngsters in simple situations. Sewing in a ripped button, mending a leaking tap, changing a light bulb for many young people, not taught to cope with such tasks at home, have become insurmountable problems. This is horrifying, yet I have witnessed situations when youngsters were helpless staring at an overloaded rubbish bin, not coming up with a solution that emptying it (throwing away rubbish) would help…

This is also a matter of widespread consumerism. In the economy propelled by disposable items which once wear out or break down are replaced by brand-new ones. Though socialist economy was bound to collapse and had built-in depravity, it taught people resourcefulness. If you could not come by brand-new stuff, you had to seek ways to repair the old one, plus oddly enough, what was manufactured, though technically obsolete was much more durable. In today’s capitalism once a customer buys a new item, its vendor already plans how to attract the customer again (planned obsolescence is one of the tools). In the economy of shortage, with supply falling short of demand, a vendor was bending down backwards to keep the customer away from it for many years, so that insufficient supply of goods was less visible.

There is no use in protecting children from life’s hardships. The later they face up to them, the more painful the head-on collision with brutality will be.

Criticise children wisely, get them accustomed to criticism. Balance stick and carrot in upbringing. Praise when due, but teach to draw conclusions from judgmental remarks instead of taking umbrage with the world.

As the author points out towards the end of his essay (quite long, I once read for an average Pole a text longer than four A4 pages is too long to absorb, while the one on which I base my today’s post is six A4 pages long), not learning to overcome problems leads to mental diseases in early adulthood. Statistics quoted by the author of the percentage of students prone to depression, neurosis and other mental problems is horrifying. If those number are true, they illustrate the price paid for flying away from the golden cage of carefree childhood…

BTW, what’s the English for pierdoła? None of the translations found on the spot online renders properly the context in which the word was used in the title of the article…