PiS in power, episode 1 in 2017

Not a dreamt-up start into the new year for the current government. Nevertheless, the five image-tainting slip-ups have not sent support in polls sliding. I believe this will happen slowly, gradually, as more voters reach their pain threshold (i.e. as wrongdoings accumulate).

Moving about safely is not the biggest virtue of PiS. Over twelve months limousines carrying prominent politicians had three serious accidents. In March 2016 president Duda’s BMW fell off the motorway after a tyre popped. On 25 January 2017 minister Macierewicz’s motorcade moving at excessive speed on an icy road smashed into cars waiting ahead of traffic lights. On 10 February 2017 reinforced Audi driving prime minister Szydlo home collided into a tree after hitting an overtaken Seciento. Circumstances of the latter accident remain most blurred, however most recent findings reveal internal safety procedures have been breached and the vehicle was not moving at the allowed speed between 50 and 60 kmph as police and ministry officials claimed. Truth be told disrespect for safety rules and fondness of speed have been a domain of all predecessors of PiS, however nobody has learnt the lesson so far, especially as Internet users publish films from dashboard cameras, shot after 10 February 2017, showing dangerous motorcades of government limousines.

Defence ministry spokesman, Bartłomiej Misiewicz, the embodiment of personnel reshuffle conducted by PiS in government-controlled enterprises has been locked up around a month ago (having days off to compensate him for working overtime). After several incidences of high-rank army officials saluting to the (civilian) spokesman and after his foray to a night-club in Białystok, Mr Misiewicz is no longer in the limelight. His future remains uncertain, however minister Macierewicz will rather not leave him out in the cold, despite Mr Kaczynski’s clear statement that Mr Misiewicz is a predicament for PiS. Conspiracy theorists wonder what Mr Misiewicz knows about Mr Macierewicz and what Mr Macierewicz knows about Mr Kaczynski that guarantees Mr Misiewicz irremovability.

The proposal to enlarge Warsaw by adjoining over 30 surrounding towns has struck out of the blue. The draft law, not consulted with anyone, including around two million residents of Warsaw and nearby towns affected by the law, brought in a strong backlash. Experts pointed at several shortcomings of the document, including violating constitutional rules (who cares?). Besides, local governors in unison underlined the deputy Sasin’s draft had not been discussed with interested parties. PiS had to give in and back down from the plan of extending Warsaw’s borders before local government elections. I suppose as too many potential voters have stamped down PiS intentions and thwarted boosting chances of their candidate in winning mayor of Warsaw stool, politicians of the party will have a hard nut to crack.

Lex Szyszko, or the amended environment protection law is probably the most visible outcome of PiS in power. You just walk outside and see chopped down trees, on private and public lands. And as a matter of principle, the wood is hardly ever cleared away, so sights like this are commonplace (in the background, uncanny freight train on Siekierki coal line). I am in two minds about this law, remembering that cutting down wizened trees that do not come into leafs and pose threat during gusty winds is necessary for the sake of safety of humans and their property. It will take decades to make up for the harm inflicted over a few weeks of the law in force. PiS has taken note of its mistake and announced next changes to the law, time will tell whether they block unfettered tree-chopping spree, but whatever steps they take, they will not reverse the time and those who have benefited from the amendments over the recent weeks will not be deprived of their benefits.

The debacle of Poland’s candidate, Jacek Saryusz-Wolski is Thursday’s (not deferred) vote on the position of European Commission candidate is the biggest defeat of PiS government in international politics and in my humble opinion, the most prestigious calamity of PiS since they took over power. All remaining 27 EU representatives, including our closest allies, i.e. prime minister Theresa May and prime minister Victor Orban, without hesitation backed the incumbent president Donald Tusk. Competencies of Mr Tusk and common sense of 27 EU leaders have been superior to domestic conflicts. The United Europe showed thumbs down to Poland whose voice has become finally audible in Europe. Indeed, our voice is heard, but no one wants to listed to it. Poland’s foreign policy is finally not pursued on its knees. Poland’s diplomats and leaders have gotten up of their knees to fall flat on their faces, straight into a cold, dirty, muddy puddle.

I feel no joy writing the above. The events in Brussels demonstrate Poland is becoming a quirky outsider in the EU, whose officials will sooner or later lose their patience and take revenge, namely cut Poland off generous flow of money from the EU. Sadly, the defeat will change nothing in perception of PiS government inside the country. Those who oppose it will not change their mind, while approximately 20% of the electorate who are hard-line believers of Mr Kaczynski will genuinely put faith in all of his words and accept as true Mrs Szydlo’s trip to Brussels was a huge victory and that evil EU is to blame. I hope Poland does not take umbrage with the EU, as if this happened and EU retaliated, Poland, not the EU would be worse off.

A leap forward

I could find no other idiom to fit better what nomination for European Council President for prime minister Tusk is. In Polish, the phrase ucieczka do przodu, has a slightly ambiguous meaning, since it denotes a situation in which somebody take steps to be better off, but also in order to evade troubles or shirk responsibility (this is what he also does). The proposal to entrust Mr Tusk one of the most prestigious positions in EU administration fills me with pride, but also brings to mind some ponderings upon the impact of this nomination on Mr Tusk’s career and on Polish politics as a whole.

No matter if you embrace or reject him, Mr Tusk will go down as the first prime minister in democratic Poland to have been re-elected and to have held the office for at least seven years (or almost two terms). He cannot be denied drive and charisma thanks to which he has headed his party for many years, but the same traits helped him eliminate dissenters inside the grouping. His speeches were compelling and millions of Poles fell for them, although time proved many of his words had been hollow. He attained a lot in the Polish politics, he and his party after seven years of being in power have grown so complacent that from some point the only natural direction of their evolution has been downhill. Poles have become kind of fed up with policy of lukewarm water, pursued quite well and although the country is run ‘up to the mark’, some kind of displeasure pushes them towards a change…

The opportunity to take up a prominent EU seat is the one which ought not to be missed. If Mr Tusk seizes it, he will get his last chance to step down in glory. After the next parliamentary election he would eventually step down in disgrace, no matter if he won the election, only as the lesser of two evisl, or if the winner was Mr Kaczynski.

The move leaves Mr Tusk’s party devoid of charismatic leader who used to be in charge of it from the very beginning and kept it together for years. Many candidates will surely have designs on his position, however I dare to suspect cards have long been handed and wait to be unveiled, so his successors have been designated and wait to take charge… The Civic Platform after Mr Tusk’s departure to Brussels might equally well emerge stronger, reinforced by the success of its many-years’ commander-in-chief, or might fall apart, dragged down by chieftains scuffling for headship.

The opposition in unison congratulated Mr Tusk on his success as this in fact is primarily a distinction for Poland and even Mr Kaczynski expressed his backing for the prime minister’s candidacy. Politicians from all parties are probably silently closing ranks before contingent early elections. For all actors of the political arena in Poland accelerated parliamentary elections might mean a blessing as well as a curse. All of the sudden they may either benefit from low support for the ruling party or fall victim of Mr Tusk’s promotion which might bolster up the position of his party.

Time will tell how things shape up in Poland, but today, I am immensely proud a Pole will head one of the EU institutions. For Poland it is a well-deserved position and Mr Tusk, let’s face the truth, is one of few Poles who could be short-listed for such job, despite some shortcomings, e.g. his insufficient command of foreign languages which was mentioned several times. I cannot imagine Mr Miller or Mr Kaczynski or any of the prominent politicians from the opposition not even holding such position, not because of their incompetence, but seeing them striving for being considered as a candidate, rubbing shoulders with European leaders is beyond my imagination…

The German break

As promised, some succinct impressions from the recent holiday trip to Poland’s western neighbour… Then giving way to has been going on in domestic politics.

The Lufthansa

Was my first encounter to the German airline and the impression is very positive. The class of its own, as my friend accurately summarised the operations of the company. I reserved the flights more than three months in advance and, tipped off by another friend that flights between Warsaw and Frankfurt am Main are served interchangeably by PLL LOT and Lufthansa and each flight has a pool of tickets offered by each of the airlines, settle for the German airline. Oddly enough, PLL LOT tickets are sold-out much earlier, Lufthansa tickets are much cheaper (I flew there and back for mere 512 PLN!), on top of that PLL LOT is loss-making, while Lufthansa fetches some, indeed meagre, yet still, profits. And chances of passengers clapping their hands after successful touchdown are marginal. On my way there some folks sitting in a row behind, in economy class as well, were weighing in clapping, but eventually gave up on their plan. Whoever has come up with such custom, has left me bemused. Even if the touchdown is impressively gentle, applause after an ordinary part of a pilot’s job implies lack of trust in pilot’s skills…

The airport

My colleagues who fly frequently tried to frighten me by telling the airport is dreadfully huge and it is easy to get lost. Utter rubbish. The airport is indeed dauntingly spacious, but signage is excellent and losing one’s way is virtually impossible, especially in arrival or transfer zones. The airport follows the trend of letting the passengers serve themselves to the extent which it is possible. Large number of self check-in kiosks and luggage drop-off counters combined with few open check-in desks and huge queues to them encourage passengers to do the check-in themselves. Before my return flight the whole procedure (check-in, shipping luggage and going through security) lasted mere four and a half minutes. Then I could enjoy the sight of bars of chocolates for dirt cheap EUR 8.90 – a snip, in the duty-free. The only drawback of the airport, serving vast number of flights are long times of waiting for the take-off or touch-down… Its other huge advantages are the proximity to the centre of Frankfurt am Main and admirable links to the local and country-wide railway networks.

The country

Once ‘The Economist’ described the German stance in EU politics as “stolid”. This epithet resounded in my mind throughout my journeys. It superbly fits the mark Germany leaves on a foreigner, no matter which visit to the country it is (mine was fourth). This very time I have grown weary of predictability and repeatability of the landscape, architecture, etc. Each town and city having a similar central train station, church, old town, sometimes castle, similar houses and block of flats. 

Little could impress me (such is my general mindset that fewer and fewer things can impress me – a disturbing sign?) and little would take my breath away, as the view from castle hill in Heidelberg (to the right) did. If any more is to be visited in this country, it is definitely Berlin (have ventured there so far, enough for a 3-day weekend and reachable by car or train), Munich and Bavaria land (a trip for a more extended weekend and it is more advisable to get there by plane).

Meanwhile in Poland…

On account of roaming around abroad I have missed out on the eavesdropping scandal unfolding. I have quickly caught up with both recordings of conversations between politicians (and businesspeople) and subsequent commentaries.

Michael in his post pleads he is outraged at the content and mostly form of dialogues between politicians and the nation is shocked by the released materials. I cannot renounce the feeling of indignation upon listening to the recordings, but I have not been taken aback by them. I could actually safely bet similar conversations have been held by politicians of PiS and SLD in times they were in charge of the country. What has been revealed is just the backstage of making politics, the murky underbelly no one would like to see. I would hazard a comparison to the most down-to-earth stuff – each and every one of us has to defecate, but no one would like to see a fellow man defecating. Politics consists of official part which can be witnessed by the public and of several unofficial talks that facilitate pursuing it. The other story is how the private and public spheres mix up, since if meetings and conversations are ‘private’ and the dinner during which they are held is paid from ‘public’ purse, something is amiss.

Michael is also disgusted by the foul language used by statesmen he considered gentlemen. Maybe this is a matter of upbringing, but I, born and bred in Poland, have long taken it for granted folks from all walks of life swear in Poland. Swear words flow from mouths of politicians, businessmen, scholars, doctors, rank-and-files and coarse drunkards. The old and the young, women and men, in the sticks and at the heart of capital, almost everyone swears. The matter of culture is only refraining from being foul-mouth when necessary. I pledge to avoid foul language when women are around, when I talk to a person I know does not swear, in official situations, but my more-or-less official or strictly private conservations with some of my workmates or friends sound similarly abhorrently as those eavesdropped in Warsaw’s posh restaurants. If my conscience is not crystal clear, I may not feel entitled to condemn anyone for using foul language. The prime minister Tusk who has once also pledged to swear like a trooper is not going to hold anyone accountable for the form of language used.

Now dear readers, I will stoop as low, as eavesdropped members of the government did and enjoy the off-the-record part of the posting. Needless to say, minister Sikorski is an ordinary lout (zwyczajny cham) who, no one can deny it to him, just mastered to perfection the art of feigned politeness. Overwhelming majority of my interlocutors with who I have discussed the issue, share my view that impeccable manners of Mr Sikorski are grossly overrated. What matters is how you behave and what you say casually, while what you pretend to do in public just reflects upon how good your acting skills are. Mr Sikorski definitely can skilfully play out a well-brought-up gentleman. Nevertheless, the recorded conversation between him and Mr Rostowski casts favourable light on his shrewdness and political wisdom and actually he scored a point with me for realpolitik-grounded view on Poland’s relations with the United States. The words of “worthless alliance between Poland and the United States” and us doing a blow-job to Americans are home truth. The very situation bears out, again, diplomacy is the art of lying and reaction of the US diplomats who reaffirmed strength of the strategic alliance with Poland also confirms this old adage. I seriously doubt Mr Sikorski’s revealed conservation will noticeably spoil relations between the US and Poland, I would not be even stunned to learn Mr Sikorski would have gained some esteem with his US counterparts for not being a starry-eyed sucker.

If it was not greed but lack of fear which caused the financial crisis, it was not lust for power but lack of humility which was a nail to the coffin of Mr Nowak’s political career which has now come to a bitter and irretrievable end. May his example serve as a forewarning for all young, up-and-coming guys lured to shiny world of politics, tempted by visions of expensive dinners, slick suits and official taxpayer-funded trips to distant places. The temptations to use political connections to pursue one’s own interests and to feather one’s nest are strong, yet we must not forget a politician is a public servant. Growing complacent and losing self-preservation instinct is the first step towards dragging oneself down, no matter if you are a top-rank politician or a rank-and-file worker in a corporation…

The one whose reputation came out probably the most burnt and bruised from the scandal is the governor of the central bank, Marek Belka. In the light of prevalence of the foul language in Poland, I can only draw a veil over frequency of using swear words by him. Deplorably, the substance of some parts of the conversation resembles a chat between tanked-up fifteen-year-old lads. I would never suspect Mr Belka of discussing lengths of several men’s penises…

Whose penis is shorter and whose longer is a matter of minor importance, although some claim those who have small penises tend to drive bigger cars ;-) The pivot of the conversation between the head of central bank and minister of internal affairs, highlighted in the scripts that first leaked to the media, had been the discussion how the central bank could help the government finance the budget deficit before the parliamentary election in 2015 and prevent victory of PiS. Cross my heart, from what I have read I cannot make out what the men meant and how the central bank could help out the government. The discussion, unclear, casual and full of understatements, has turned water to the mill of several journalists and politicians, many of who, as I noticed, not necessarily comprehend the heart of the problem. From my perspective, if we are to assess whether potential violation of law occurred, we have to take into considerations three situations when a central bank can have government bonds on its balance sheet. Here we go with a crash course!

Firstly, budget deficit financing may take place if the central bank buys government bonds on primary market, i.e. the central bank comes in when government bonds are auctioned off and purchases them while they are issued. Such reprehensible moves in all civilised economies are prohibited by law and known as debt monetisation. The central bank, as the only issuer of money, increases supply of money which is not accompanied by rise in output, hence expanded monetary base results in increased inflation and decreases real value of government debt. Upshot: the government is better off, everyone else is worse off and double-crossed by the central bank and the government.

Secondly, the central bank can purchase bonds on secondary market from commercial banks. From the government the operation means a change of creditor and does not directly aid the government. Such actions are kind of controversial, but have been widely undertaken by the Fed, the ECB (to the right, the building, where those bastards who slashed deposit rate below zero have their headquarters, fenced off to prevent bad people from trespassing the decision-making space), the Bank of England. The purpose of such moves is to remove from banks balance sheets securities and convert them into cash in order to enhance liquidity or encourage banks to lend money. The side effect of such operations is that increased demand for treasury securities from the central bank decreases yields and hence brings down borrowing costs for the government. Securities bought up usually have long maturities (more than 10 years) in order to avoid the roll-over (refinancing) risk, as if it materialised, the situation would easily evolve into variant one.

Incidentally, the ECB will soon move to a new, posher skyscraper, top-centre on the photo to the right, seen from the viewing platform at the top of Main Tower… If anyone is to ask where they had the money from to build such huge edifice, the answer is simple – as an exclusive money issuer they have printed it. Printing money is a very serious task, hence it requires appropriate premises…

Thirdly, the central bank may engage in Repo transactions with commercial banks. This manoeuvre is from a borrower’s (commercial bank’s) perspective a purely collateralised loan – i.e. a central bank lends money against government bonds, although technically it buys securities from commercial banks (spot leg) and agrees to sell them back at a later date (forward leg). Repo transactions are aimed at regulating liquidity in the banking sector and have nothing to do with financing government debt.

I gather the first variant is out of question, the second is a contentious measure, while the third does not require any further attention.

The excuse for mentioning the plausible aid of the central bank was the threat of PiS winning the election and subsequent economic disaster… I am far from supporting PiS and also not think their victory would be best for Poland but this is a step too far. We live in democracy and make-up of the parliament lies in the hands of voters. If they decide PiS is to glean the highest number of seats in the parliament, their choice deserves due respect! The very victory of PiS will not be a disaster. It is not the case which party is in power (although perception among investors does matter), what really matters are decisions it takes.

For the very end, let’s dissect the line of defence the prime minister Tusk has taken. He will not dismiss any of the eavesdropped officials nor will hold anyone accountable for use of foul language. All the recorded government members in unison claim the Polish state has been attacked by an “organised criminal group” and it will not succumb to it. The public is thus to be focused on culprits who recorded the dismal talks in restaurants, not on the substance of allegedly private conversations (which by the way show Mr Belka, Mr Sienkiewicz, Mr Sikorski and other ‘victims’ are just regular guys, behaving like ordinary Poles when they get drunk). The timing of releasing the recordings is puzzling. Euro-election is over, local elections are due in half a year, holiday season sets in. Are the recent government’s plan to prop up ailing coal mines in Poland by curbing imports of cheap coal from Russia the real reason? I firmly believe the waiters who admitted to have installed bugs have just grabbed the opportunity to cash in on knowledge they could come into possession thanks to microphones in VIP rooms. They are just cogs in a larger machine and the plan is masterminded by someone much more cunning that people who make the headlines these days. The only problem is that the purpose for which the machine is running, remains unknown…

Elections, elections...

The parliamentary ones would be held this October, if the previous term of the Polish parliament hadn’t been shortened. I still dread to think what would have happened if the Law and Justice party had remained in power for next two years. They’d probably kept on spoiling the country and its institutions, in the worst (though not really likely) scenario, the next elections in 2009 could have been rigged. Why unlikely? People of my country wouldn’t let them do this, we would take into the streets, picket, show our disagreement, or EU would step in.

The review of the last two years – it could have been better and could have been worse. Currently there’s no alternative for Civic Platform in Poland. Turning Tusk and his entourage away would mean bringing Kaczyński back to power. The last scandals didn’t outrage me much – in every party there will be individuals aiming to set themselves up, make a few profitable deals, arrange a swindle and so on – so no surprise. Those who claim Tusk’s move was a PR stunt are partly right – however I couldn’t see any better way of resolving a problem of suspected ministers than firing them – for sake of transparency. The thought of early elections makes me feel apprehensive. If Poles turn their backs on PO it will mean PiS may earn more votes in the elections. Hopefully our memory is not short as on financial markets and the mistake of 2005 is still being borne in mind.

This weeks the elections are being held in my school. The students vote for their representatives in the senate and other bodies which I won’t mention cause I have too little time to think or check how to translate them. I went to the makeshift polling station put up on the courtyard of my school on Monday. I picked up the ballot papers and dashed off a bit to put my crosses on them. After a moment a group of fellow students, for sure including one who was running for a seat in senate came up to me and offered to help me choose the right candidates. Once again I could kick myself for being not enough assertive – I just kindly turned down their proposal. Should I’ve reported it as irregularity? I only wish I hadn’t hurried with marking the names – had I taken a moment for consideration I could have shown my disapproval and contempt for that cesspit by casting invalid votes…

Putting a spoke into his wheel?

Diplomacy is one of those realms in which one has to comply with the certain patterns of behaviour, even if they seem unreasonable… That’s why I have conflicting feeling after receiving the news of Polish Prime Minister’s delivering a speech about (doubtless) virtues of balanced state budget and highlighting this as reason why Poland keeps its head above water in the times of downturn. Was it really a dig at reckless fiscal policy of UK, or just a way of emphasising our accomplishments in that field? Tusk didn’t mean (as he claims) to any other economy but more or less involuntarily pounced at failure of Great Britain with its economy declining for the third quarter in a row… Is anybody to explain me if the British media were right to outrage at Tusk’s speech? Was it a blunder to boast about soundness of one’s own economy, while standing next to the Prime Minister of the country engulfed in recession?

PS. In case of MPC (RPP) session – predictably rates are unchanged…

Wracając do polityki... / Returning to politics...

Pewien młody magister z Krakowa właśnie opublikował swoją książkę, w której sugeruje, że Lech Wałęsa był od połowy lat 60-tych agentem SB i miał nieślubne dziecko. IPN, w którym ten „naukowiec” jest tymczasowo zatrudniony odcina się od jego publikacji, sam były prezydent grozi, że wyjedzie z kraju, zwróci wszystkie odznaczenia i nie będzie brał udziału w uroczystościach państwowych.
Szczerze mówiąc niewiele mnie obchodzi co Wałęsa robił w swej młodości, dla mnie zapisał się na kartach historii Polski jako przywódca wielkiego ruchu społecznego, a później jako durny prezydent. Człowiek ten ma wiele zasług, jak i wad, ale nie o tym mowa...
Zastanawia mnie wciąż skąd w moim pokoleniu bierze się tylu gorliwych lub nadgorliwych ludzi, palących się do rozliczenia przeszłości. Skąd ta żądza zemsty i za co właściwie? Wraca mi do głowy obraz dwóch moich kolegów z klasy jeszcze z liceum (dość prawicowej szkoły zresztą), których ambicją było robić karierę w IPN, instytucji, która już dawno przestała badać historię Polski między rokiem 1939 a 1989, a stała się, lub została obrócona w bagno. Bagno, nawiasem mówiąc nawiedzane przez duchy przeszłości.
Premier Tusk powiedział dziś, że IPN może dalej istnieć jedynie jeśli stanie się instytucją ideologicznie i politycznie neutralną. Panie premierze, trzymam za słowo. Nie chcę żeby szkodnicy byli opłacani z moich podatków...

Anglicy mieli agenta, z którego zrobili bohatera, Polacy mieli bohatera i zrobili z niego agenta...
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A young Master from Cracow has just published his book, in which he suggests Lech Wałęsa had been a Secret Services agent since mid sixties and to boot he had had an illegitimate child. Institute of National Remembrance, temporary employer of the author distances itself from his publication, the former president threatens he would leave Poland, return all the awards and would not partake in the state celebrations.
Frankly speaking, I don’t care about what Wałęsa did in his youth, for me he made history as the commander of the magnificent social movement and later on as a silly president. This man has a lot of merits, but also plenty of shortcomings, but never mind…
I’m still wondering why is my generation full of so many zealous or officious people, keen on dragging out the past times. Where does the lust for revenge stem from and for what actually? I recall my classmates from High School (very rightist, besides), whose only ambition was to pursue their careers in the IPN, in the institution, which long ago ceased carrying out research on the Polish history between 1939 and 1989, and turned, or was turned into a mire, by the way haunted by the spirits of the past.
Prime Minister Tusk said today IPN may exist on only if it becomes politically and ideologically neutral institution. Mr Tusk, your word is your bond… I don’t want the pests to be paid from my taxes…