Showing posts with label hilarious. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hilarious. Show all posts

Sunday, 3 November 2013

Troublesome mating

Having shaken off a heartache, one usually begins to look out for opportunities to start over a new relationship. For posterity and for myself – a wry record of my endeavours over the past year. If there’s no use crying over spilt milk, I can at least indulge in recalling those hapless stories from their hilarious side… If you don’t fancy reading somebody washing their dirty linen in public, just click away.

This time names won’t be made up to withhold the real identity of persons involved. The cast are: six women nicknamed Gx, where x = 1, 2, …, 6, G stands for ‘Girl’, B (stands for my name) – me.

G1 probably was still alone because of her stringent requirements towards potential partner, or just maybe because she’d hold her head up high. To give you the flavour of it, just a short snippet of our conversation.

G1: I don’t know if you realise, but I’m a member of MENSA.
B: (concealing my bewilderment, as I heard the most above-average intelligent people associated in that organisation hardly ever boast about their membership and generally are modest) I’m impressed…
A few minutes later I mentioned in the conversation Wisława Szymborska (Polish Noble Prize in literature laureate)
G1: Excuse me, who?
B: Wisława Szymborska, you know, she got the Noble in literature in 1996
G1: Never heard of…
B: “Nothing happens twice”, “Calling Yeti” (…), rings a bell to you?
G1: Errr, no…

Exit strategy: make a getaway and then avoid like a plague!

Regular readers of PES already are familiar with the story of G2, named for them ‘Natalia’

B: After not seeing you for more than two years, I could have found you being with someone else and did consider this when trying to find you, but when we met, you told me that…
G2: I remember, when you asked how I was doing, my reply started with a declaration “I don’t have a boyfriend, I don’t have a fiancé, I’m not married”…
B: So actually you have somebody…?
G2: Well, formally we are not together… This is… a cupboard love
B: (the whole situation seemed kind of funny to me) It sounds serious.
G2: It’s a very serious feeling towards an older, mature man.
B: (I could barely help my jaw dropping open, but responded in a serious manner) Maybe it would be worthwhile to do something about it?
G2 just pulled a face and flushed…

I haven’t seen her ever after despite working in neighbouring building. None of our common friends could not tell me how she was doing, no one has heard anything from her. PES Commentator Basia claimed I could have done her an incredible favour; I doubt it – even if my emergence served as an eye-opener, she closed her eyes as soon as I made off.

The date with G3 was actually quite nice and promising until the moment I drove her home and we were about to farewell…

G3: May I ask you a question?
B: Sure, go ahead.
G3: Is it your car?
B: Why are you asking?
G3: You know, some boys tend to impress girls with not their cars…
B: (baffled) You’ve got me there, this one is stolen!
G3: You know, it’s not what I meant. Can you… show the registration certificate?
B: I took the car’s documents out of pocket and showed her (I know I should have refused, but at that stage I wanted to bring this situation to an ultimate end)
G3: It’s yours, not your father’s. So when do we meet next time?
B: Never. Because I don’t go out with blachary (blachara is a Polish word for a girl who falls for boys who have cars, don’t know if there’s any English equivalent…)

Comment: Had I possessed a barn-tuned Volkswagen Golf III with darkened rear windows, alloy rims and sizeable spoilers, the date could have had its final on the back seat of my car. Unfortunately my immaculate Renault doesn’t work on women like this…

I had to make some efforts and prove some patience to ask G4 out, but my determination was rewarded. Actually this was not an awful experience, it was in a way… uncanny…

She told me about her parents divorce, how her father treated her mother, her siblings and her since the time their family began to break up, how her brother escaped it by getting hitched to a girl from a rich family, how her sister quit studies two times. She confessed:
G4: I’ve never loved anybody and I don’t think I ever will, it’s just what I’m like – I don’t care, I don’t get attached, that’s how I function, people have to accept or not – their choice.
Then she also described me how her boss was harassing her…

Despite the whole burden she had thrown at me and despite her ‘emotional instability’ (something that attracts me in women) I claim this one relationship had a chance to work out. Months after that meeting I still regret being too open about my intentions. Had I held my horses, I could have hit it off with her and slowly tame her.

G5 was also a good example of a resistant girl. For a long time she remained totally indifferent to me showing interest in us getting to know each other better. Once we accidentally met in town. I was returning from work after doing vast overtime, it was getting late, so I offered her a lift.

B: Maybe I could drive you home…
G5: (perplexed and feeling like vanishing into the air) Maybe better not!
B: (decided to find out whether it was because she had a boyfriend or for some other reasons that she turned down each my proposal) Is your boyfriend so jealous, that he would damage my car and throttle me? (was meant to be a joke)
G5: Eeerrr… Yes… He’s very aggressive…
B: (stumped) So I’ll better hold back and go home… alone… it’s late… bye…

This short dialogue until now seems absurd and no matter if that was true, or just a lame excuse, the message is clear – keep away from such women. Case similar to G2 – the mystery to be never unravelled and even if it was, what the benefit for me would be?

G6 deserves a slight introduction. We first met in 2008 on a language course, then accidentally met during exam in April 2009 and a few weeks ago ran across each other in a tram. I sensed an opportunity cropping up, I put forward we met, she agreed…

I’m not reticent, but I somehow kind of like meetings when I don’t have to speak much. This was one of them. Before we got to a restaurant I listened to the story of her struggle in the run-up to her legal counsel exams that plunged her into neurosis and which medicines her psychiatrist prescribed her and how she reacted to them. In the restaurant the actual rough ride set on…

G6: Yes, you remembered well I don’t use Internet often, but this doesn’t mean I’m unfamiliar with technology (she pulls from her handbag some Apple-made device and shows off her smartphone – both devices keep her online all the time) – I change them every year to have always state-of-the-art electronics by my side. Actually they don’t endure more than a year, my previous iPhone’s mainboard gave up the ghost after a year and I lost all the files I had stored on it…
B: (decided to pick up the gauntlet and play this game, so took my Nokia handset bought in early 2008 from my pocket) I prefer to stay offline, I simply don’t need gadgets. This one offers me as much as I need and for almost six years has never let me down.
G6: But aren’t you ashamed of using it in public. I would be…

This was when the show was hotting up

G6: I like big cars. I feel safe and mighty behind the wheel. Recently my dad leased a Mitsubishi Outlander for me. I adore this car.
B: This is an SUV, right? finally met a woman aged less than 35 who can be seen in such petrol-guzzling hideous vehicle) Well, I somehow don’t need big stuff, they simply don’t impress me. My 10-year-old Megane serves me very well
G6: Aren’t you afraid of driving such old car?
B: Of course not, it’s as reliable as my phone (indeed, today engine cranked up briskly after 10 days of sitting idle)

Then came the part in which she laid out her opinions in fundamental matters…

G6: A man should be resourceful. He should have at least two full-time jobs and moonlight in order to have money to indulge his woman’s needs.

Then she made my hackles rise…

G6: This is awful when people bring packed lunch to the office instead of going out to eat… If they earn money, what can be the reason for them to deny themselves pleasure of eating out?
B: But don’t you realise most of them may have budget constraints or prefer to spend money on other things or have loans to pay off? Many of my colleagues spend a lot of money investing in their children and therefore they relinquish eating out…
G6: And this why I will never have children. These are sponger. If I had a child I would have to spend money on it and spent time looking after it. And as a child-free woman I can spend money for satisfying my needs and take care of my own matters…

I must have been totally bemused, if I didn’t feel like shouting in her face: “you vacuous cunt”…

I haven’t even bothered to send her a brief text message to thank for the evening…

For the two days following the nightmarish date I felt a bit off-colour, broke sweat after small physical efforts and shivered. Fever ensued on the third day before dawn. At first I thought I’d caught a cold (weather and heating conditions in my office and public transport were conducive to it), but soon I realised instead of sore throat I was nagged by aching stomach. As the disease developed, it turned out to be regular food poisoning (details left out, nothing pleasant) – first in my life since early childhood and quite severe.

I wonder whether the obnoxious tribulations I’ve gone through recently were just a coincidence, an aftermath of G6’s bad taste (after roaming around town for almost an hour and griping about menu contents in several restaurants) or a sign (maybe the Guardian Angel is vigilant and had his fingers in it) from the fate. That date was a katharsis – I felt like swimming in a pond of shit, keeping my head above water, breathing in fragrant air and knowing no one has enough power to push my head down. It made me finally realise going out with somebody just for the sake of mere going out makes no sense. It’s sometimes better to be left out in the cold if the house is on fire…

The recent date probably was also meant to serve as a cure for my fondness of older women (all six women were older than me, with age difference spanning from a few weeks to seven years). I stared at G6’s face – instead of sincere grin I saw a frown, instead of joy I saw displeasure, instead of youthful energy I saw jadedness. I saw a grumpy, elderly materialist who didn’t need a man as a human, but craved for his money. Never before have I found a company of a woman so off-putting that I prayed we parted as soon as possible and if I could I would probably run away as fast as legs could carry. I even thought about finding an excuse, writing an SMS under the table with a request for an urgent call, but gave up on those ideas, decided to stay tough and stick it out…

Now if this was indeed a turning point, then comes a question where to look for a younger girl if in my natural social groups are work and the same since years circle of friends? For the former the hope lies in staff turnover, yet beware… For the latter, if there was meant to be an opportunity, it would have long been seized or missed. Should I take second studies, sign up for language course / dancing course, enrol in an organisation? Makes a point, if I wanted squeezing extra activity into my weekly timetable, but… signing up can do the job if the real goal is to learn something new, or engage in new activity, not to meet a girl – if not, the whole idea can turn into a huge cock-up… My Soulmate told me there are surely plenty of girls that would fit me well, but I have no chance to meet them, despite quite probably passing them by every day – they follow the same daily routine I do – move between home and work, in free time help at home or meet the same group of friends. But because it takes two to tango, even if I break away from the circle, odds of meeting them are low.

Regarding back the former – I used to avow I would refrain from any ambiguous relationships at work. With time I’ve given it second thoughts and slightly changed my mind. What really should be avoided are relationships with women from your team and all other you work directly with, have frequent professional interactions with or if your job responsibilities overlap. If your positions are, however, functionally and physically separated, no one should view it as a problem. Such proximity makes it even easier to foster a relationship (how convenient to pop out for a lunch together or to meet after work).

Some time ago it occurred to me some opportunities stand no chance of being even missed. Some time ago I met a girl. Until then I had been unable to define what the “ideal woman” or “a girl of my kind” would be like. When I met her (none of the G1 – G6 described above) I realised she was such one. But when we first mean, it was all said and done, or rather the know was tied. She got married last year, a year before we met. I didn’t even dare to make any step, even held off on trying to get to know her better, just to ward off any temptation. No chance to light a single spark in the dark…

All adventures with those girls also had one common denominator – they all lacked spontaneity, something which in the past made it work smoothly, naturally. Back in middle, then high school or at the university, I had a chance to meet many girls, spend more time with time in different situations and then could find out whether I liked any of them more and if I wanted to make a step to get to know her better and ask her out. Today, when I often have to fight for opportunity to meet, I need to ask a woman out to find out whether I want to get to know her better… Maybe I’m weird, but I don’t seem to understand it. I know, this is a part of mating rituals, but if you ask somebody out, you make an effort to show that you care. And the whole absurdity for me is that I don’t know if I care, so the whole fuss seems incongruous to me…

The upside of all those miserable attempts is that none of them has got me so far to spark any emotional commitment. Sometimes I felt relief it didn’t work out (G1, G3, G6), sometimes it’d hurt a bit (G2, G4, G5) – as no one likes being turned away, but getting over it was a matter of days rather than weeks.

From time to time my colleague (30+ married woman, has no children and not the Soulmate) and I pop out for a cigarette. Actually she smokes, I take up the role of a passive smoker and we chat, not only about work. One day I asked her why she got married. Her response was straightforward and disarming: “I was about to turn 30, he showed he cared, had a job, had no addictions, was kind of handsome and just like me liked dogs, there was no use in waiting for a knight from a fairy tale”.

So what’s the reason for me to get married?
To have somebody to cook dinners for me, wash my socks, vacuum-clean carpets and iron my shirts? No, I can do it myself, or hire a servant!
To meet the most elementary needs a male has? This problem might be solved by frequent trips to escort agency or picking up girls in some clubs – I hope to never stoop so low!
To have somebody to support me? For all those years I learnt to cope with all difficulties on my own, I’m used to not sharing problems as they appear with other people.
The only reasonable motive is to have a company in life – and then everything changes…

My Soulmate also told me with age I’ll become more demanding and will find it harder to accept a woman with all her habits, shortcomings and peculiarities. In fact, at that stage I can’t pick and choose, as many valuable women are already either married or in long-lasting relationships. It’s just like in a free-market economy where rational consumers compete with one another to pick out more valuable goods before others snatch them for themselves – so leftovers are not the most desired ones. There is an option to wait until one of such relationships breaks up and step in, but one needs to have it in mind, this would be a relationship with a person burnt and bruised after a bitter experience of broken-up relationship…

Relationship is an art of compromise, but not all concessions can be made and in some matters I see no room for compromise. I can’t imagine a relationship with a woman who has totally different priorities in life, or has different hierarchy of values. Surely, I could try, but having seen many such relationships from the stage of fascination evolving into disillusionment and bitter end, I treat such opportunities as waste of time which additionally increases probability I miss the right opportunity… Which I hope lies still ahead.

Sunday, 6 October 2013

Wishful thinking

Don’t wait for the perfect moment! Take the moment and make it perfect!

- Why do you argue now is the right time to buy a flat? When will the property prices go up again?
- Prices won’t rise soon, however in my opinion the third quarter of 2009 will bring the onset of slow, yet stable upward trend (…) Those who take decisions swiftly will be the winners.
- Do you think then prices on secondary market will not decrease in the coming months?
- Where they were meant to fall, they have already fallen.

The scales on the property market have not been tipped so favourably for a while. And it seems this won’t last long. Hurry up then!

Decline of property prices has come to a halt and prices are not going to fall any more. This is a good moment to buy a property, but a bad time for selling it.

Property prices are still low and banks are more willing to grant loans. According to property agents, this is the perfect moment to buy a dreamt-up flat.

Some time later in the second half of 2010:
This is the best moment to buy a property. It won’t be any cheaper!

Some property agencies seem affected by the slowdown on the market, other describe the current market as ‘stable’. Nevertheless, all property agents claim in unison this is the perfect time for property buyers.

Last days of 2011 and first months of 2012 will be the perfect time for property purchases – experts convince.

Whoever plans a property purchase should not put it back. Downward trend in prices is likely to reverse.
If you consider buying a property, this is the perfect moment. Prices have gone down, but fewer buyers can boast about desired creditworthiness. Even if next year prices fall, the decline will be negligible.

Planning to buy a flat? Property market practitioners point out sellers are ready to make bigger concessions in price negotiations. This indicates the perfect moment to buy has come!

Property prices keep falling and have reached the levels last seen in 3Q2006 – good moment to buy a flat!

Experts claim now is the best moment to buy a flat!

Over the last year property prices have significantly gone down. The economy is markedly reviving. The probability of further price decline is miniscule, while choice of flats is wide. It seems this is the perfect moment to buy a flat!

Chart 1: Average price of one square metre of a property on primary and secondary markets in Warsaw over last almost seven years. Source: National Bank of Poland’s quarterly report on property market, figures based on data collected from notaries (reflect only transaction prices, rather than asking prices (sellers’ wishful thinking!) in property ads).


Chart 2: Average quarterly prices of one square metre of a property in Warsaw, this time sample covers all properties from primary and secondary market. All data are transaction prices and are based on data collected from notaries. Source: excerpt (short version of) from AMRON-SARFiN’s quarterly report.


Conclusion 1: chart 1 is biased – by starting in 3Q2006 it omits the first phase of property market frenzy which kicked off in late 2005. Since then up to the peak of property market bubble (?) in prices went up by up to 100% - growth scale in time frame of 3 years (therein some 50% growth in 2006 alone) makes it justified to call it a bubble.

Conclusion 2: the perfect moment has lasted for five years. It has been one of the longest perfect moments in the history.

Conclusion 3: based on the recent history of property price fluctuations and frequency of developers and property agents bleating about the perfect moments, there is no significant correlation between intensity of obtrusive urging to buy and higher demand for flats reflected in mounting prices.

Conclusion 4: The regularity observed during many stock market and property bubbles, i.e. when everyone tells you to buy this is the best moment to sell has proved true between late 2008 and now.

Conclusion 5: the future trend is rather unpredictable… (deserves the ‘conclusion of the year’ award ;-))

…Albeit my expectation is that within the coming year (i.e. by the end of September 2014) average property prices will decrease by 3 percent year-on-year and with 95% probability the price change will range from –10% to +6%. Over the coming decade the prices are most likely to stabilise in nominal terms and drop in real terms on average (with some deviations from the long-term trend). Here’s the rationale:

Why property prices might rise:

1. Interest rates, now at their historical lows, are predicted to stay unchanged for about a year, and then are unlikely to rise quickly. Lower interest rates have a huge impact on amount of monthly instalment of a mortgage and hence on creditworthiness. Thus a borrower with the same earnings has some 30% higher creditworthiness than a year ago. But watch out – this is a trap. The capacity to repay a long-term liability is assessed based only on current market conditions and National Bank of Poland’s base rate will not equal 2.50% forever. If it goes up by 2 percentage points, monthly instalment of a 250,000 PLN loan with current interest of 4.00% taken out for 25 years will rise from 1,319 PLN to 1,610 PLN (by 22%) if the interest rate increases to 6.00% (note annuity payments are very sensitive to interest rate changes).

2. Low income on bank deposits discourages wealthier depositors from keeping their savings in banks and makes some of them to invest in properties in pursuit of higher yields on rents. Beware though, this is a trap as well – if everyone buys flats with the intent to lease them – will the supply of new properties be matched by demand from lessees? Won’t this trend exert a downward pressure on yields to make them equal with bank deposits? And note flow of income from a relatively small group of well-off people is a rather one-off occurrence, therefore the price incline cannot rely solely on demand generated by wealthy buyers.

3. There is a group of buyers who’ve already had enough of waiting for prices to go even lower and are running out of patience. In the meantime they’ve amassed some cash, so they can either pay in 100% or take out a small loan to finance the purchase – this group is capable of generating steady demand and unlike wealthy disgruntled depositors can make the upward trend sustainable.

4. Supply of new flats offered by property developers and number of new dwellings under construction are both shrinking. As the basic laws of economics state, lower supply should result in higher prices.

5. New government-run scheme (flat for the young), bound to take effect in January 2014 – the government will fund 10% - 15% of purchase price of a flat from the primary market only. The biggest restrictions in getting the subsidy are a square metre price cap (to be set at 5,865 PLN in Warsaw in 1Q2014) and the fact an applicant must not be older than 35.

Why property prices might fall:

1. Demographics, one of key drivers of the property market. People naturally seek to have their housing needs met and want to buy (or rent, or build their own) properties. Number of young people entering the labour market is decreasing year by year and given that the population of Poland is set to contract, prospects for price hikes in the long run are downbeat.

2. The biggest demand for flats is generated by youngsters looking for their first flat (later they swap one for another, bigger one, i.e. upgrade) – not only their number is lower, but also labour market is not on their side: unemployment rate among youngsters is higher than a few years ago, many of them work under ‘junk contracts’ (banks do not view it as steady source of income), salaries for workers under 30 are much lower than before the crisis.

3. Recommendation S, issued by Polish Financial Services Authority (KNF) which states a mortgage borrower will need to put up a specific percentage of purchase price as equity. This percentage will be rise 5% in 2014 to target 20% in 2017. This recommendation (banks won’t date to try not following it) will bring to the end dicey 100% loan-to-value lending.

4. Banks’ reluctance to increase their mortgage portfolios. This product is not the most profitable (hard to cross-sell it) and its risk seems to have turned out underestimated – for many CHF-denominated mortgages, outstanding debt considerably exceeds property market value, putting banks at risk of not recovering the lent amount in case of borrowers’ defaults.

5. Future insecurity among potential borrowers – given the scale of layoffs in the corporate sector (which should by all means fall back along with recovery in the economy), many people think twice before taking out a loan for several years (who can guarantee nothing bad happens in such time horizon). Even if someone has not been affected by a job loss or salary cut, they could have observed someone else losing their source of income. Mortgage-taking spree from 2006-2008 was fuelled by booming economy and over-optimistic expectations that good time would last forever. That craze is extremely unlikely to repeat in many years.

6. Despite considerable decline (some 20% in nominal terms over last 5 years in Warsaw on average), property prices are still steep in relation to ordinary people’s earnings and for many potential buyers out of reach. Currently an average monthly after-tax salary in Warsaw (some 3,600 PLN) is enough to buy a half of a square metre of property in Warsaw. This means after two months of putting aside 100% of one’s salary (in practice impracticable) you can buy one square metre of an average flat; after a year you can buy six square metres; after eight years of not spending at all you can buy a decent one-bedroom 50-sqm flat for cash.

7. In the meantime costs of living have risen disproportionately to nominal wages growth. This means the discretionary income, i.e. the share of monthly cash inflow that can be either saved or spent on mortgage payment has dwindled. Needless to say what effect it has on demand for properties.

I’m planning to buy a flat in about a year. Hope the wind blows in the right direction…