No, there was no consensus in terms of
long-term forecasts for this winter, albeit more reputable meteorologists’
model pointed at warmer than average cold season.
The record-late incidence of heat was
followed by a cold blast. In many places in Poland first frosts were observed
in the last days of September. In Warsaw first ground frost was reported on 2
October 2025 and the first frost (dawn-time low of –1.2C) on 3 October 2025. It
was the earliest first frost since 2001, occurring 15 days earlier than
long-term average. October 2025 as the coldest since 2016, though in line with
long-term average, deserved a separate summary.
The first half of November 2025 was
relatively warm and frost-free, then the second half made up for it. The winter
timeline is launched later than in 2024 (21 November), 2023 (17 November) or
2022 (17 November), but earlier than in 2021 (26 November) or 2020 (30
November).
23 November 2025
After a frosty night flurry begins around 8:00 a.m. and with some little breaks
keeps slowly falling until evening. Not warmer than –1C.
24 November 2025
Snow falls on and off. Temperature crawls above 0C after sunset, suggesting
nasty conditions ahead.
25 November 2025
Mild thaw, drizzle washes the snow away. Ghastly damp, no warmer than +2C.
26 November 2025
It was supposed to snow heavily, but as temperature oscillated close to +2C, it
rains heavily.
27 November 2025 – 30 November 2025
Somewhere on the verge of autumn and winter, with overcast skies most of the
time and temperature going through the point of freezing several times.
November 2025 was slightly warm. Average
temperature in Warsaw was +4.4C (vs. long-term average of +3.8C). Stats:
- month-time high: +16.8C on 2 November 2025,
- month-time low: –3.9C on
24 November 2025,
- the warmest day: 2 November 2025 (daily average of +12.3C),
- the coldest day: 23 November 2025 (daily average of –1.6C)
- number of days with snow cover: 2,
- the highest snow depth: 3 centimetres on 24 November 2025 and 25 November
2025.
1 December 2025 – 8 December 2025
Late autumn returns, with fogs, poor air quality, intermittent drizzle and
nasty deficiency of sunshine (except for 2 hours before sunset on 4 December
and 1 hour around midday on 8 December). Temperature ranging from 0C to +9C. Not a sign of actual
winter in sight.
9 December 2025 – 11 December 2025
Forecasters predicted record-breaking warmth, while temperature creep into low
double-digits, with remarkably high night-time lows close to +10C. Some
rainfall, some sunshine.
12 December 2025 – 15 December 2025
Getting colder, sliding from mid-autumn to late autumn.
16 December 2025 – 22 December 2025
Weather slowly crumbling from late autumn into pre-winter, accompanied by foggy
greyness, with a depressing shortage of sunshine.
23 December 2025
Of note is the two-hour snow shower in the evening which symbolically ends the
autumnal streak in December. Sadly, it falls on warm ground before temperature
breaks into negative territory, hence almost no traces of it linger.
24 December 2025
Was supposed to be sunny from dawn, but skies clear up around midday. Day-time
high no warmer than –6C, making it the coldest Christmas Eve since 2002, yet
sadly a snow-free one.
25 December 2025
First double-digit frost this winter. Clear blue skies over the entire day. A
tad warmer.
26 December 2025
Warnings of a freezing drizzle (which begins to fall at –4C) have been spot on.
Large swathes of central Poland are turned into ice rinks, leading to numerous
accidents. Forecasters do not get it right temperature-wise, as it does not
thaw out.
27 December 2025
The freezing drizzle continues, while most of the day temperature hovers close
to 0C, which means near ground it remains colder and icy conditions persist.
28 December 2025 – 29 December 2025
Two days of thaw before winter hits.
30
December 2025
Little snow showers on and off, while a proper blizzard comes after sunset. It
snows all night then.
31
December 2025
Wake up to behold a thick blanket of snow. 12 centimetres is the highest
day-time snow cover increase since early April 2022. The day is bright, but
then skies cloud over and lush flurry begins late into afternoon and goes on
until late evening…
December 2025 was very warm. Average
temperature in Warsaw was +2.4C (vs. long-term average
of –0.1C). Stats:
- month-time high: +11.7C on 10 December 2025 (not truly impressive, the
warmest moment in December since New Year’s Eve in 2022),
- month-time low: –11.8C on 25 December 2025 (one and only night with
double-digit frost in the entire month),
- the warmest day 10 December 2025 (daily average of +9.8C, scent of spring was
in the air),
- the coldest day: 25 December 2025 (daily
average of – 8.4C, also the coldest Christmas Day since 2002),
- number of days with snow cover: 2,
- the highest snow depth: 12 centimetres on 31 December 2025.
1 January 2026 – 2 January 2026
Snow showers and mild thaw. Winter gives a little relief, although the snow
cover on New Year’s Day is the highest since… January 2013. It occurs to me it
might be the only incidence of above-zero temperatures this month.
3 January 2026
Same weather pattern as yesterday, except for sub-zero temperatures only.
4 January 2026
More sunshine, still with some snow showers. Mild frost.
5 January 2026
Snow showers fortunately cease. More sunshine, at the expense of a frosty morning.
6 January 2026 – 9 January 2026
Little sunshine, no new supplies of the white powder. Ghastly chilly, with
double-digit frost most of the time.
10 January 2026
Below –15C at dawn and clear blue skies. Soon it clouds over and some snow
showers haunt Warsaw. Snow falling at temperature below –10C is a rare
phenomenon, yet observable.
11 January 2026
Light snow in the morning, heavy snow in the evening. At least has got somewhat
warmer, temperature rises above –5C.
12 January 2026 – 13 January 2026
Two snow-free days with moderate winter, i.e. day-time highs close to –3C.
Meteorologists warn of a freezing precipitation coming over soon.
14 January 2026
A foggy morning, a snowy, then a rainy evening. The major problem is that it
rains, but it does not thaw out. Raindrops falling on a frozen ground at –3C
turn into ice immediately.
15 January 2026
The thaw lasts 16 hours and temperature over that period tops at +1.1C. We are
unlikely to see above-zero temperatures by the end of the month.
16 January 2026
Chilly, kind of bright. The last day with single-digit frost before a long
period of big freeze ensues.
17 January 2026 – 22 January 2026
Stable, a bit boring, yet spirit-lifting weather driven by a high pressure
system. Cloudless skies from dawns to dusks. Morning lows between –14C and
–11C, afternoon highs from –6C to –1C.
23 January 2026 – 25 January 2026
Sun hidden behind clouds, with intermittent light snow showers. Single-digit
frost.
26 January 2026
Freezing rain in the morning, then comes a mild thaw which at least melt the
thin layer of ice being the aftermath of the accursed precipitation.
27 January 2026
Again, the temperature gently climbs above zero, with little effect to the
frozen ground.
28 January 2026
Waking up to the sight of fresh snow, raising snow cover by 4 centimetres in
total and hiding the dirty old snow.
29 January 2026 – 30 January 2026
Cloudy, temperature close to –5C, with wind chill reaching –15C.
Temperature-wise, it is a lull before the storm, namely the most intense cold
snap since early February 2012.
31 January 2026
Just –14C in the morning, –8C in the afternoon, then the temperature plummets.
Clear blue skies and sunshine do not bring relief, as wind brings down the
temperature felt by a human body below –20C.
January
2026 was anomalously cold. Average temperature in Warsaw was –5.5C (vs.
long-term average of –1.5C). It was the fifth coldest month in Warsaw in the
twenty-first century, after:
1. January 2006 (–8.3C),
2. January 2010 (–8.0C),
3. December 2002 (–6.6C),
4. February 2012 (–6.1C).
Stats:
- month-time high: +3.1C on 2 January 2026,
- month-time low: –15.5C on 10
January 2026 (a classic January low, there were 16 days in the month
with lows below –10C),
- the warmest day: 2 January 2026 (daily average of mere +1.5C and the only day
in the month with average temperature above freezing),
- the coldest day: 31 January 2026
(daily average of – 11.8C),
- number of days with snow cover: 31,
- the highest snow depth: 25 centimetres on 5 January 2026.
1 February 2026
Morning brings the lowest temperature this winter so far, –17C, which is still
warmer than forecasted. In the afternoon temperature shoots up to –9C. Full
sunshine. In the evening wind chill reaches ghastly –25C.
2 February 2026 – 3 February 2026
Awfully cold, with lows below –19C. Morning wind chill of –27C. Full sunshine.
4 February 2026
A fresh supply of new snow comes up before dawn. Still chilly, no warmer than
–7C in the afternoon.
5
February 2026
One nuisance is swapped for another. Freezing drizzle before dawn. Then the
thaw does not come up.
6
February 2026 – 7 February 2026
Foggy, damp, dull days. The thaw lasts 41 hours and over that time temperature does
not rise above +1.2C. Drizzle on and off.
8 February 2026
Let is snow, let is snow… Gone is the thaw, but shall return in four days,
maybe even for a while.
9 February 2026
A beautiful, sunny, bright, yet chilly (quite frosty) day.
10 February 2026
Getting warmer hour by hour. Freezing rain (fox the sixth time this winter)
heralds the imminent assault of masses of warm air.
11 February 2026 – 13 February 2026
First proper thaw since late December, with temperature reaching +5C for the
first time since nearly 2 months. The first day brings plenty of sunshine,
while next two are foggy and gloomy. This means a slow farewell to the snow
lying on the ground since 30 December.
14 February 2026
By the time the frost returned, snow cover in Warsaw dwindled from 14 to 5
centimetres. Frosty, gloomy, with no spring on the horizon.
15
February 2026
Getting colder hour by hour, skies clear up in the afternoon.
16
February 2026
In the morning temperature drops to nearly –15C. Sunny by late afternoon. Wind
chill again is a nuisance.
17
February 2026 – 18 February 2026
Single-digit frost. Snow falls on and off, but mid-term forecasts indicate a
major thaw which would wipe out all traces of winter. Most likely not
sustainably, but any relief is welcome.
19 February 2026 – 20 February 2026
Mostly sunny, with lows close to –10C and afternoon just below 0C. The
late-winter mode I adore, with sun shining high and days getting visibly
longer.
21 February 2026
The morning as frosty as on previous days, then temperature shoots up to reach
+1C early in the afternoon and retreat soon to 0C, as a flurry begins. A few
days of relief from cold and snow ahead, but most likely the winter has not
said its last word (with hindsight – it said).
22
February 2026 – 23 February 2026
A thaw in overdrive, dull, cloudy and rainy. The snow disappears.
24
February 2026 – 25 February 2026
Colder now, yet warmer than over most of the winter, still average daily
temperature remains above freezing.
26
February 2026 – 28 February 2026
Getting warmer day by day, into warmth abnormal for this time of year (well
into double digits on the last two days of the month), which is a pleasant
anomaly after weeks of enduring temperatures lower than average. Sunshine
brings a smile on my face. Gusty wind does not let one feel like in April.
February 2026 was cold. Average temperature
in Warsaw was –2.5C (vs. long-term average of –0.4C). This means we had two
colder than average months in a row in Warsaw for the first time since April
and May 2021 (for winter months since February and March 2018). Stats:
- month-time high: +16.3C on 28 February 2026 (colder than in late
February in 2021 and 2024),
- month-time low: –19.5C on 3 February 2026 (ghastly, with wind chill of –27C),
- the warmest day: 28 February 2026 (daily average of +7.3C),
- the coldest day: 2 February 2026 (daily average of –15.3C, the coldest
day in Warsaw since 18 January 2021),
- number of days with snow cover: 23, snow cover continued to lie on the ground
in Warsaw for 55 consecutive days, the longer streak since 2009/10 winter (62
days in a row then).
- the highest snow depth: 20 centimetres, on 4 February 2026 and 5 February 2026.
Monthly temperature amplitude in February
2026 reached 35.8 Celsius degrees, which is the third-highest such measurement
in Warsaw. The record set in March 1971 of 40.2 Celsius degrees (low of –21.6C
on 5 March 1971, high of +18.6C on 21 March 1971, i.e. mere 16 days later) is
awfully difficult to beat and March is probably the only month when it stands a
chance to be beaten.
1 March 2026 – 10 March 2026
A boring weather pattern: sunshine from all to dusk, no rainfall
(disturbingly), morning lows between –4C and +1C, afternoon highs between +10C
and +17C.
11 March 2026 – 15 March 2026
A similar pattern to the one from the first decade of the month, with exception
of lack of frost at dawn and with warmer afternoons (up to +19C). Still no
precipitation!
16 March 2026 – 25 March 2026
Colder than in previous days, yet substantially warmer than it should be at
this time of year. Some
occasional showers, yet far too little to make up for deficiency of
precipitation from the beginning of the year.
26
March 2026
Finally a long-awaited rainfall and the only day this month with day-time high
below +10C.
27
March 2026 – 31 March 2026
Colder than over the most of the month, retreating from spring in full swing
towards pre-spring.
March
2026 was abnormally warm, actually the warmest since records began. Average
temperature in Warsaw was +7.7C (vs. long-term average of +3.2C and current
record of +7.2C set in 2007). Stats:
- month-time high: +18.9C on 14 March 2026,
- month-time low: –3.7C on 7 March 2026,
- the warmest day: 14 March 2026 (daily average of +12.1C, a May-like weather),
- the coldest day: 6 March 2025
(daily average of +3.8C, the coldest day being warmer than long-term mean for
the entire month),
- number of days with snow cover: 0.
In
terms of precipitation, it was the second driest March in Warsaw since records
began, with total precipitation of mere 2.7 millimetres (March 2022 with 1.7
millimetres remains unbeaten).
The winter is definitely over. Today the
temperature in Poland’s capital may hit +20C for the first time this year. In the
coming days we will cope with an inflow of cold here past the Easter and have
to endure a few frosty morning, but hopefully the long-awaited spring will soon
be in overdrive.
