Showing posts with label weather. Show all posts
Showing posts with label weather. Show all posts

Sunday, 9 August 2026

August 2026 heatwave diary

As I was saving for posterity the record-breaking heatwave which hit central Europe in late June 2026, I sadly got it right it would not be the only one this summer. In Poland it was the second heatwave this summer, in most parts of Europe - fourth. And the fifth one is in the offing in France and in the UK.

Thursday, 16 July 2026
I get external roller shutters installed outside my windows facing north-east. Glad I hadn't put it back until next summer season, as they will prove to serve as a brilliant shield from heat.

Thursday, 30 July 2026
This heatwave commences on Thursday too, with a lovely pre-dawn low of +15C. Before the onset of high temperature I managed to cool the dwelling down to +21C, which is a decent result, given walls have accumulated a lot of heat. Afternoon high of +31C is still tolerable, especially with wind gusts up to 30 km/h.

Friday, 31 July 2026
The night wasn't that lovely, since temperature did not drop below +20C, actually with a low of exactly +20.0C it ranked as a tropical night, a fifth one this year (nine tropical nights were endured in Warsaw in summer 2019, the record is likely to be broken this year).
The afternoon high of +33C was markedly lower than forecasts of +36C. Moderate cloud cover has not let the air warm up. Nevertheless, it does not feel nice. I return home after a beer or three in town around 10 p.m. and the air remains sultry, yet Ursynów is noticeably less warm than the city centre.

Saturday, 1 August 2026
A short, intense downpour hit Warsaw overnight. Cloud cover did not let the heat get released into the skies. Consequently, night-time low reached +21.3C (sixth tropical night this summer). Air in the morning is horridly humid. In the afternoon temperature climbs to +31C, with heat index even higher (air humidity > 50%). After 3:00 p.m. a thunderstorm hits Warsaw. It does not bring the temperature much down, but air humidity is even higher. Two next showers in the evening.

Sunday, 2 August 2026
Finally a cooler morning with a low of +17C, but air humidity close to 100%. The entire day brings some relief from the heat, as temperature does not rise above +25C, giving some time to brace for the second blow of this heatwave.

My eyes in the meantime are on Hungary. The country's core nuclear power plant, Paks, is running below its full capacity due to low level of Danube and consequent deficiency of water to cool the bloc. A full shutdown seems inevitable. Hungary is in the focal point of the current heatwave. Temperatures in Budapest reached daytime highs in excess of +35C each day since 30 July. The climax of the scorching episode is forecast for 5 August, with high above +40C and low of +24C. The country faces a threat of paralysis amid a deadly heat. Emergency situation is also in neighbouring Romania, where power plant's cooling unit is brought to a halt by deficiency of water. Since grids in the region are interconnected, several countries, including Poland may face power outages. In Poland such incidences have not taken place since August 2015.

Monday, 3 August 2026
The night and early morning were supposed to be brisk. In fact, with accursed cloud cover, temperature did not drop below +18C with high air humidity. During the working week Warsaw will need to endure at least one day-time high above +35C. Today, as clouds did not fade during the day, temperature reached only +29.5C. In the afternoon it felt astonishingly comfortable, as the wind took the gloss of the heat. After sunset an electrical thunderstorm with moderate rainfall comes over Warsaw.

During the last harsh winter I began counting down days until March (when snow and frost were likely to ease off). Time to start counting down days until September, when at least tropical nights are unlikely.

Tuesday, 4 August 2026
One more night-time rain has passed over the capital. With a low of +19.9C the night does not formally rank as tropical, but given air humidity close to 90%, the morning is anything, but enjoyable. During the day temperature rises to +31C, however with air humidity near 50%. Sultry. In southern Poland day-time highs reach +37C.

The grids in Hungary and Romania have not yet collapsed, as large industrial off-takers have cut down on or halted manufacturing. With effects of drought being felt for weeks to come, the energy-saving measures will remain in place after the heatwave peters out.

Wednesday, 5 August 2026
The night was a bloody hell. With clouds in place, temperature did not decline below +22C (seventh tropical night this year). Past 7:00 it was already +24C and vapour was hanging in the air. Warnings of record-breaking heat have not materialised in Warsaw. Day-time high of +35.7C is over one Celsius degree short of Poland's capital August all-time high (+37.0C on 8 August 2013). But in Kozienice, less than 100 km south of Warsaw, temperature climbs to +38.8C. Many spots in southern Poland today broke their records of maximum temperature, yet the fresh (38 days old) countrywide heat record remains untouched.
Inside: +25C, but with air humidity of 70%, already uncomfortable.

In Austria and Slovakia temperatures rose above +41C for the first time in history.

The Paks nuclear power plant in Hungary is shut down. Grids in several countries south of Poland, i.e. Hungary, Romania and Moldova are under pressure. Blackouts are averted thanks to decreased demand from large manufacturing plants. Economic growth has led to the global warming. Now the global warming tapers the economic growth.

Thursday, 6 August
The eight tropical night this summer. The worst part of the morning is wearing a suit and getting with a suitcase and a bag to a car parked outside (+24C and sultry air at that moment). I set off from home for a two-day business trip, firstly to Podlasie, then directly from there, to Podhale. The entire trip, 1,300 kilometres, taken by car (hybrid Toyotas do not emit little CO2 in motorway driving), thus feeling guilty of contributing to the hell which we are enduring.
Forecasts of cold front bringing abundant rainfall and relief from the heat in the early afternoon in Warsaw have not materialised. In Podlasie temperature reached +35C (according to car thermometer, but in line with official readings). After a meeting with a client I stopped by at a petrol station to swap suit for shorts and t-shirt. On my way to Kraków I encountered small hail. I stopped over for a much-belated lunch somewhere beyond Grójec and temperature out there was (according to car thermometer) +37C. Somewhere close to Kielce the highest reading was +39C. Aircon in the car did its job well, but in a KFC restaurant despite aircon running at full blast, it kept the interior at some +25C. Efficiency of aircon in my hotel room seems insufficient.

Friday, 7 August 2026
The aircon in my hotel room produced more noise than cold air overnight. Kraków needs to get through a tropical night, during which I switched off the aircon fuse and opened the window. In Warsaw morning rainfall sends temperature below gently +20C. Markedly below +30C during the day. Some proper relief from the heat due over the weekend.
So far there have been 16 hot (maximum temperature above +30C) days this year in the capital of Poland (vs. record-high number of 24 in 2015 and 2024), but the summer has not run out. Tomorrow’s high is forecast to be above +30C, but it will be a one-day incidence of heat. Counting down days until autumn...

Sunday, 3 May 2026

Two months, same weather

The long early-May weekend marks the first moments this year, when temperatures rise markedly above +20C (today’s high expected to hit above +25C), bringing the first intimations of summer. The weather thus has partly broken out of awful early-spring stability in which it was stuck for two months.

Let's take a look at weather stats for Warsaw for the past two months.

Average temperature in March stood at +7.8C, while in April at +8.6C This was the lowest amplitude between the two months ever measured (in 1977 it was 1.0 Celsius degree with mean temperature in March of +5.4C and +6.4C in April).

The charts below present highs, low and daily means for each day over the last two months. Some volatility is visible, but trend lines are only gently upward, proving the observation of weather getting stuck in early spring mode. The trend line showing day-time high has moved upward by a mere 1 Celsius degree over two months (both in transitional period between winter and summer).

 

For grumblers - the spells of best weather were observed on:
- 14 - 15 March (Saturday and Sunday, highs of +18C and +19C, plenty of sunshine),
- 5 April (Easter Sunday, full sunshine, high of +21C),
- 18 - 19 April (Saturday and Sunday, highs of +18C and +20C, partly sunny).

Sadly, there has been an awful deficiency of rainfall. Total precipitation in both months reached only 9.3 millimetres, which makes it the driest March & April period in Warsaw since records began.

Now make the use of the clement weather before it cools down and then hope shortfall of precipitation will be made up for and that summer will not bring deadly heat waves.


Sunday, 5 April 2026

Winter Timeline 2025/26

No, there was no consensus in terms of long-term forecasts for this winter, albeit more reputable meteorologists’ model pointed at warmer than average cold season.

 

The record-late incidence of heat was followed by a cold blast. In many places in Poland first frosts were observed in the last days of September. In Warsaw first ground frost was reported on 2 October 2025 and the first frost (dawn-time low of –1.2C) on 3 October 2025. It was the earliest first frost since 2001, occurring 15 days earlier than long-term average. October 2025 as the coldest since 2016, though in line with long-term average, deserved a separate summary.

 

The first half of November 2025 was relatively warm and frost-free, then the second half made up for it. The winter timeline is launched later than in 2024 (21 November), 2023 (17 November) or 2022 (17 November), but earlier than in 2021 (26 November) or 2020 (30 November).

23 November 2025
After a frosty night flurry begins around 8:00 a.m. and with some little breaks keeps slowly falling until evening. Not warmer than –1C.

24 November 2025
Snow falls on and off. Temperature crawls above 0C after sunset, suggesting nasty conditions ahead.

25 November 2025
Mild thaw, drizzle washes the snow away. Ghastly damp, no warmer than +2C.

26 November 2025
It was supposed to snow heavily, but as temperature oscillated close to +2C, it rains heavily.

27 November 2025 – 30 November 2025
Somewhere on the verge of autumn and winter, with overcast skies most of the time and temperature going through the point of freezing several times.

November 2025 was slightly warm. Average temperature in Warsaw was +4.4C (vs. long-term average of +3.8C). Stats:
- month-time high: +16.8C on 2 November 2025,
- month-time low: –3.9C on 24 November 2025,
- the warmest day: 2 November 2025 (daily average of +12.3C),
- the coldest day: 23 November 2025 (daily average of –1.6C)
- number of days with snow cover: 2,
- the highest snow depth: 3 centimetres on 24 November 2025 and 25 November 2025.

 

1 December 2025 – 8 December 2025
Late autumn returns, with fogs, poor air quality, intermittent drizzle and nasty deficiency of sunshine (except for 2 hours before sunset on 4 December and 1 hour around midday on 8 December). Temperature ranging from 0C to +9C. Not a sign of actual winter in sight.

9 December 2025 – 11 December 2025
Forecasters predicted record-breaking warmth, while temperature creep into low double-digits, with remarkably high night-time lows close to +10C. Some rainfall, some sunshine.

12 December 2025 – 15 December 2025
Getting colder, sliding from mid-autumn to late autumn.

16 December 2025 – 22 December 2025
Weather slowly crumbling from late autumn into pre-winter, accompanied by foggy greyness, with a depressing shortage of sunshine.

23 December 2025
Of note is the two-hour snow shower in the evening which symbolically ends the autumnal streak in December. Sadly, it falls on warm ground before temperature breaks into negative territory, hence almost no traces of it linger.

24 December 2025
Was supposed to be sunny from dawn, but skies clear up around midday. Day-time high no warmer than –6C, making it the coldest Christmas Eve since 2002, yet sadly a snow-free one.

25 December 2025
First double-digit frost this winter. Clear blue skies over the entire day. A tad warmer.

26 December 2025
Warnings of a freezing drizzle (which begins to fall at –4C) have been spot on. Large swathes of central Poland are turned into ice rinks, leading to numerous accidents. Forecasters do not get it right temperature-wise, as it does not thaw out.

27 December 2025
The freezing drizzle continues, while most of the day temperature hovers close to 0C, which means near ground it remains colder and icy conditions persist.

28 December 2025 – 29 December 2025
Two days of thaw before winter hits.

30 December 2025
Little snow showers on and off, while a proper blizzard comes after sunset. It snows all night then.

31 December 2025
Wake up to behold a thick blanket of snow. 12 centimetres is the highest day-time snow cover increase since early April 2022. The day is bright, but then skies cloud over and lush flurry begins late into afternoon and goes on until late evening…

December 2025 was very warm. Average temperature in Warsaw was +2.4C (vs. long-term average of –0.1C). Stats:
- month-time high: +11.7C on 10 December 2025 (not truly impressive, the warmest moment in December since New Year’s Eve in 2022),
- month-time low: –11.8C on 25 December 2025 (one and only night with double-digit frost in the entire month),
- the warmest day 10 December 2025 (daily average of +9.8C, scent of spring was in the air),
- the coldest day:
25 December 2025 (daily average of – 8.4C, also the coldest Christmas Day since 2002),
- number of days with snow cover: 2,
- the highest snow depth: 12 centimetres on 31 December 2025.

 

1 January 20262 January 2026
Snow showers and mild thaw. Winter gives a little relief, although the snow cover on New Year’s Day is the highest since… January 2013. It occurs to me it might be the only incidence of above-zero temperatures this month.

3 January 2026
Same weather pattern as yesterday, except for sub-zero temperatures only.

4 January 2026
More sunshine, still with some snow showers. Mild frost.

5 January 2026
Snow showers fortunately cease. More sunshine, at the expense of a frosty morning.

6 January 2026 – 9 January 2026
Little sunshine, no new supplies of the white powder. Ghastly chilly, with double-digit frost most of the time.

10 January 2026
Below –15C at dawn and clear blue skies. Soon it clouds over and some snow showers haunt Warsaw. Snow falling at temperature below –10C is a rare phenomenon, yet observable.

11 January 2026
Light snow in the morning, heavy snow in the evening. At least has got somewhat warmer, temperature rises above –5C.

12 January 2026 – 13 January 2026
Two snow-free days with moderate winter, i.e. day-time highs close to –3C. Meteorologists warn of a freezing precipitation coming over soon.

14 January 2026
A foggy morning, a snowy, then a rainy evening. The major problem is that it rains, but it does not thaw out. Raindrops falling on a frozen ground at –3C turn into ice immediately.

15 January 2026
The thaw lasts 16 hours and temperature over that period tops at +1.1C. We are unlikely to see above-zero temperatures by the end of the month.

16 January 2026
Chilly, kind of bright. The last day with single-digit frost before a long period of big freeze ensues.

17 January 2026 – 22 January 2026
Stable, a bit boring, yet spirit-lifting weather driven by a high pressure system. Cloudless skies from dawns to dusks. Morning lows between –14C and –11C, afternoon highs from –6C to –1C.

23 January 2026 – 25 January 2026
Sun hidden behind clouds, with intermittent light snow showers. Single-digit frost.

26 January 2026
Freezing rain in the morning, then comes a mild thaw which at least melt the thin layer of ice being the aftermath of the accursed precipitation.

27 January 2026
Again, the temperature gently climbs above zero, with little effect to the frozen ground.

28 January 2026
Waking up to the sight of fresh snow, raising snow cover by 4 centimetres in total and hiding the dirty old snow.

29 January 2026 – 30 January 2026
Cloudy, temperature close to –5C, with wind chill reaching –15C. Temperature-wise, it is a lull before the storm, namely the most intense cold snap since early February 2012.

31 January 2026
Just –14C in the morning, –8C in the afternoon, then the temperature plummets. Clear blue skies and sunshine do not bring relief, as wind brings down the temperature felt by a human body below –20C.

January 2026 was anomalously cold. Average temperature in Warsaw was –5.5C (vs. long-term average of –1.5C). It was the fifth coldest month in Warsaw in the twenty-first century, after:
1. January 2006 (–8.3C),
2. January 2010 (–8.0C),
3. December 2002 (–6.6C),
4. February 2012 (–6.1C).
Stats:
- month-time high: +3.1C on 2 January 2026,
- month-time low: –15.5C on 10 January 2026 (a classic January low, there were 16 days in the month with lows below –10C),
- the warmest day: 2 January 2026 (daily average of mere +1.5C and the only day in the month with average temperature above freezing),
- the coldest day: 31 January 2026 (daily average of – 11.8C),
- number of days with snow cover: 31,
- the highest snow depth: 25 centimetres on 5 January 2026.

 

1 February 2026
Morning brings the lowest temperature this winter so far, –17C, which is still warmer than forecasted. In the afternoon temperature shoots up to –9C. Full sunshine. In the evening wind chill reaches ghastly –25C.

2 February 2026 – 3 February 2026
Awfully cold, with lows below –19C. Morning wind chill of –27C. Full sunshine.

4 February 2026
A fresh supply of new snow comes up before dawn. Still chilly, no warmer than –7C in the afternoon.

5 February 2026
One nuisance is swapped for another. Freezing drizzle before dawn. Then the thaw does not come up.

6 February 2026 – 7 February 2026
Foggy, damp, dull days. The thaw lasts 41 hours and over that time temperature does not rise above +1.2C. Drizzle on and off.

8 February 2026
Let is snow, let is snow… Gone is the thaw, but shall return in four days, maybe even for a while.

9 February 2026
A beautiful, sunny, bright, yet chilly (quite frosty) day.

10 February 2026
Getting warmer hour by hour. Freezing rain (fox the sixth time this winter) heralds the imminent assault of masses of warm air.

11 February 2026 – 13 February 2026
First proper thaw since late December, with temperature reaching +5C for the first time since nearly 2 months. The first day brings plenty of sunshine, while next two are foggy and gloomy. This means a slow farewell to the snow lying on the ground since 30 December.

14 February 2026
By the time the frost returned, snow cover in Warsaw dwindled from 14 to 5 centimetres. Frosty, gloomy, with no spring on the horizon.

15 February 2026
Getting colder hour by hour, skies clear up in the afternoon.

16 February 2026
In the morning temperature drops to nearly –15C. Sunny by late afternoon. Wind chill again is a nuisance.

17 February 2026 – 18 February 2026
Single-digit frost. Snow falls on and off, but mid-term forecasts indicate a major thaw which would wipe out all traces of winter. Most likely not sustainably, but any relief is welcome.

19 February 2026 – 20 February 2026
Mostly sunny, with lows close to –10C and afternoon just below 0C. The late-winter mode I adore, with sun shining high and days getting visibly longer.

21 February 2026
The morning as frosty as on previous days, then temperature shoots up to reach +1C early in the afternoon and retreat soon to 0C, as a flurry begins. A few days of relief from cold and snow ahead, but most likely the winter has not said its last word (with hindsight – it said).

22 February 2026 – 23 February 2026
A thaw in overdrive, dull, cloudy and rainy. The snow disappears.

24 February 2026 – 25 February 2026
Colder now, yet warmer than over most of the winter, still average daily temperature remains above freezing.

26 February 2026 – 28 February 2026
Getting warmer day by day, into warmth abnormal for this time of year (well into double digits on the last two days of the month), which is a pleasant anomaly after weeks of enduring temperatures lower than average. Sunshine brings a smile on my face. Gusty wind does not let one feel like in April.

February 2026 was cold. Average temperature in Warsaw was –2.5C (vs. long-term average of –0.4C). This means we had two colder than average months in a row in Warsaw for the first time since April and May 2021 (for winter months since February and March 2018). Stats:
- month-time
high: +16.3C on 28 February 2026 (colder than in late February in 2021 and 2024),
- month-time low: –19.5C on 3 February 2026 (ghastly, with wind chill of –27C),
- the warmest day: 28 February 2026 (daily average of +7.3C),
- the coldest day: 2 February 2026 (daily average of –15.3C, the coldest day in Warsaw since 18 January 2021),
- number of days with snow cover: 23, snow cover continued to lie on the ground in Warsaw for 55 consecutive days, the longer streak since 2009/10 winter (62 days in a row then).
- the highest snow depth: 20 centimetres, on 4 February 2026 and 5 February 2026.

Monthly temperature amplitude in February 2026 reached 35.8 Celsius degrees, which is the third-highest such measurement in Warsaw. The record set in March 1971 of 40.2 Celsius degrees (low of –21.6C on 5 March 1971, high of +18.6C on 21 March 1971, i.e. mere 16 days later) is awfully difficult to beat and March is probably the only month when it stands a chance to be beaten.

 

1 March 2026 – 10 March 2026
A boring weather pattern: sunshine from all to dusk, no rainfall (disturbingly), morning lows between –4C and +1C, afternoon highs between +10C and +17C.

11 March 2026 – 15 March 2026
A similar pattern to the one from the first decade of the month, with exception of lack of frost at dawn and with warmer afternoons (up to +19C). Still no precipitation!

16 March 2026 – 25 March 2026
Colder than in previous days, yet substantially warmer than it should be at this time of year. Some occasional showers, yet far too little to make up for deficiency of precipitation from the beginning of the year.

26 March 2026
Finally a long-awaited rainfall and the only day this month with day-time high below +10C.

27 March 2026 – 31 March 2026
Colder than over the most of the month, retreating from spring in full swing towards pre-spring.

March 2026 was abnormally warm, actually the warmest since records began. Average temperature in Warsaw was +7.7C (vs. long-term average of +3.2C and current record of +7.2C set in 2007). Stats:
- month-time high: +18.9C on 14 March 2026,
- month-time low: –3.7C on 7 March 2026,
- the warmest day: 14 March 2026 (daily average of +12.1C, a May-like weather),
- the coldest day: 6 March 2025 (daily average of +3.8C, the coldest day being warmer than long-term mean for the entire month),
- number of days with snow cover: 0.

In terms of precipitation, it was the second driest March in Warsaw since records began, with total precipitation of mere 2.7 millimetres (March 2022 with 1.7 millimetres remains unbeaten).

 

The winter is definitely over. Today the temperature in Poland’s capital may hit +20C for the first time this year. In the coming days we will cope with an inflow of cold here past the Easter and have to endure a few frosty morning, but hopefully the long-awaited spring will soon be in overdrive.